Week 16 is here people but I’m sure most of you were aware of that because we’ve already got 3 games in the books. It’s not an exaggeration to say the holiday season now belongs to the NFL as we’re getting 8 days of games over an 11 day period. Personally I’m all for it especially with the expanded College Football Playoff being a bunch of boring one sided affairs. My apologies for slacking yesterday, could’ve gotten us some easy wins, but don’t worry Bick’s Picks will deliver a special blog Christmas morning. However I’m getting a little ahead of myself as I’ve still got last week to complain about and my only real gripe is with Tua. Dude outright stunk and blew that Over all on his own. The Tiersducken also missed but I’m not gonna say I’m surprised. To say parlays haven’t been my thing this season would be putting it kindly as I have a 1-14 record with them. Those are truly numbers only the Tankathon could love. Fortunately for us the Broncos and Bills came through for the Lock and the Dawg to save our week. Despite another 2-2 week and my deep-seated hatred for parlays I still feel like we can get that perfect week before the season ends so let’s get into it.

Life’s Too Short to Bet the Under

Patriots @ Bills (46.5)

Full disclosure I had two other Over write ups completed but I threw em out just because I needed to bet this game. We got friends of the blog Jeff and Shellie in attendance so we gotta support the squad. Heck it worked for Pip in Denver why not for a couple Pats fans in Buffalo. Apologies for not being bold enough to bet the +14, but I do think the Pats show up and put up some points. Now even though the Patriots fans in attendance got me on this total the real reason I can confidently bet it is Josh Allen. The dude has been putting up insane numbers and I think they’re gonna try to pad those MVP stats so they’ll be all gas no breaks. Really would love an upset here but a fun high scoring shootout would also be just as good.

Over 46.5 (-108)

Fade Dawgs

Giants (+9.5) @ Falcons

I’m not even sure how I managed to talk myself into this pick but here we are. The Giants are arguably the worst team in football but man this is a big number against a middling team debuting their rookie qb. I’m not even gonna try and hype up the Giants this is simply a pick fading the Falcons. Penix could prove me wrong and go off in this game but I have the feeling they’re gonna try to play it safe which plays into a close game where the G-Men cover late. I do wish it was +10 so a push was in play but I’m hoping over TD is enough and if not at least I can dump on New York next week.

Giants +9.5 (-110)

The Tiersducken

Sound the alarm we have new additions to the tiers! The Falcons finally did the humane thing and sent old Kirk out to pasture so Penix makes his debut. And I guess I have to write about Spencer Rattler because the Saints feel my parlays aren’t garbage enough. 

1. Jayden Daniels

2. Bo Nix

3. Drake Maye 

4. Michael Penix Jr

5. Caleb Williams

6. Spencer Rattler

The tiers remain pretty much the same aside from me putting Penix ahead of Caleb Williams. Why? Because Caleb Williams sucks of course. As for the picks I’m gonna try to keep it “simple” and roll the dice on who throws picks. First a little wishful thinking I’m gonna say JD5 doesn’t throw a pick. Then I hate to do it because we got friends of the blog in Buffalo today but I’m gonna say Drake Maye throws a pick today. Honestly I don’t even think it’ll be one that’s on him more likely one of his receivers tips it to a defender but unfortunately those still count. Next pick even though he sucks will be Caleb to not throw a pick. Despite my criticisms he’s often been careful with the ball but that’s because a lot of his passes are in the dirt but hey as long it’s not to the wrong team right? Then for the two rookies making their debut on the tier I say Penix plays it safe and Rattler throws a pick to Green Bay’s ballhawking secondary. Fade it, dread it and honestly avoid it, here’s this week’s parlay.

Tiersducken Parlay: Interceptions Thrown O/U: Jayden Daniels Under .5, Michael Penix Jr. Over .5, Drake Maye Over .5, Caleb Williams Under .5, Spencer Rattler Over .5 (+1932)  

Bick’s Stone Cold Lock of the Century of the Week

Vikings (-2.5) @ Seahawks

I’ve been burned by the Vikings before but as you all know I can be a stubborn slow learner. Truth is as soon as I saw this line dip below a field goal I had to bounce. As much as I distrust Darnold I probably think Geno sucks twice as much. Add that with the fact he’s one bad hit away from us getting a Sam Howell game I have to take the Vikings here. I of course have love for Howell but the dude takes a billion sacks and no one likes to dial up the blitz more than Brian Flores. I really hope Darnold gets his mistakes out of the way early so we don’t have to sweat this out.

Vikings -2.5 (-115)

Simple and easy Rams -2.5

Mike Evans over 90 receiving yards

Eagles ML

Drake Maye over 20.5 completions

No write up needed for any just trust.

Week 15 is here people which means the bye week madness is finally over and we have ourselves a full slate of NFL games to choose from. Now we did struggle a bit with all those byes, but not last week as we managed to have ourselves a winning week. We didn’t have to sweat the Over, the Panthers covered for the Dawg nearly winning outright and Jameis threw just enough interceptions to make sure the Steelers covered for the Lock. Heck even the intern almost got the Triducken a win as it only came up a leg short because of Jets things. Things are trending up for us here at Bick’s Picks and maybe it’s just the holiday season or that big UConn win over Gonzaga but I’m brimming with optimism so let’s get into it. 

Life’s Too Short to Bet the Under

Dolphins @ Texans (46.5)

What can I say when something works I have a tendency to keep doing it until it doesn’t. Now of course that strategy has failed me before but in this case I feel confident running it back with the Fins. Sure they’re not at home but playing in a dome should be just fine for this warm weather team. On the flip side I’ve been admittedly down on the Stroud boys as they just haven’t seemed right this season but I think coming off the bye they’ll be up for a shootout. On paper this is the best 1pm game and I think it’ll live up to that expectation. Not to mention I love this number so let’s run it back with another Dolphins Over.

Over 46.5 (-108)

Fade Dawgs

Bills (+2.5) @ Lions

There’s a bunch of games that I thought about for this spot as I feel like this could be the weekend of the Dawg, but in the end I just wanted to bet on this game. In a slate of great games this Super Bowl preview sits at the top and as a football fan it’s a must watch. To be honest I stayed up way too late at a Christmas party so I don’t have the time or mental energy to explain my logic, but we’re circling the wagons here at Bick’s Picks. I just think the Lions are overdue for a letdown and there’s no QB playing better than Josh Allen. If anyone can make Dan Campbell pay for his “bold” decision making it’s Allen. Now I do wish this number was +3 so we had the push in our back pocket but Vegas knows what they’re doing and wants us to sweat this out till the very end. No matter the outcome here’s hoping this game lives up to the hype but at the same time a Buffalo blowout would be pretty cool too just saying.

Bills +2.5 (-105)

The Tiersducken

The Tiersducken is back! Now is it a winning segment? Let’s not talk crazy but at the very least I don’t have to slam my head into a wall like Gus Frerotte trying to pick a TD parlay. Now without further ado our rankings.

1. Jayden Daniels

2. Bo Nix

3. Drake Maye 

4. Caleb Williams

Predictably there’s been no movement with our tiers as JD5 reigns supreme but I would be a liar if I didn’t say Bo Nix was breathing down his neck. Meanwhile Drake Maye continues to impress in a bad situation and Caleb Williams sucks. Now last time I kept it simple and just did O/U interceptions for each of the rookies but that didn’t work out. This time I’m doing all sorts of stat props so read carefully. Also I’m aware the Bears play on MNF so you’ll have to be patient for this to pay out but knowing my parlay luck it’ll be dead by 430p today. Either way fade it, dread it or be confused by it here’s Tiersducken parlay.

Tiersducken Parlay: Jayden Daniels Over 1.5 Passing TDs, Bo Nix Over 1.5 Passing TDs, Drake Maye Over 28.5 Rushing Yards, Caleb Williams Over 25.5 Rushing Yards (+1298)  

Bick’s Stone Cold Lock of the Century of the Week

Colts @ Broncos (-4.5)

I legit got no time for witty write up or any sort of fun stats but that doesn’t matter because I love this spot for the Broncos. I just can’t talk myself into the Colts covering this number on the road and add with the fact my cousin Pip is in the building for this game I got to hammer it in support. So don’t think about it, just Bolieve and bet it.

Broncos -4.5 (-110) 

Week 14 is here people which means the last bye week of the season and more likely than not the last week before fantasy football playoffs. I don’t know about the rest of you but for me it feels like this season has been flying by at an absolute clip. Perhaps it’s true what they say about time flying when you’re having fun because I’ve certainly been enjoying the 2024 season. November was rough but Washington got back in the win column by dominating the Titans, while also securing a win for our Lock. The Steelers came through for our Dawg and beat the Bengals in what turned out to be the highest scoring game of the season. However as many of you know the perfect week remains elusive as Justin Tucker single-footedly killed the Over and the Triducken was the Triducken. Another 2-2 week wasn’t the outcome we were hoping for but we try to have a short memory here at Bick’s Picks so without further delay let’s get into it.

Life’s Too Short to Bet the Under

Jets @ Dolphins (45)

Even though I gave Justin Tucker crap for blowing the Over I’ll admit it was on me that we bet it. After all I called it’d be a slow start, I called the kickers untrustable liabilities and I knew betting the highest total was a risk but I pissed into the wind anyways. My bad people. Thankfully for us and Baltimore the Ravens are on their bye week so we can avoid making the same mistake back to back weeks. Instead I’m gonna look to a team that helped us cover several Overs last season and that’s the Dolphins. Sure they struggled in the cold last week but they’re back at home where they’ve been putting up points in bunches. Add that with the fact they’ve won 8 straight at home vs the Jets I bet they aim to keep that streak alive. On the flip side, sure Rodgers is a squid but we only need them to put up a couple scores so fingers crossed they can manage that while Tua and company do the heavy lifting to get us to our total.

Over 45 (-108)

Fade Dawgs

Panthers (+14) @ Eagles

Simply put I couldn’t stay away from this spread especially after I heard some lunatic bet $3.1 million on the Eagles moneyline. It’s not every Sunday you get the chance to fade one of the largest bets ever on an NFL regular season game. Now I won’t go as bold as to say we should jump on Carolina’s ML but they’ve been frisky enough as of late that I definitely like them to cover. Philly has been slow to start games and hopefully that helps them keep it close early on. Plus with the Eagles already looking ahead to the playoffs and trying to avoid injury I could easily see a backdoor cover when they take their foot off the gas. Again I won’t go as far as to call an upset but I had to ride with Sir Purr at least once this season.

Panthers +14 (-112)

The Triducken

Anytime TD Parlay: Braelon Allen, Zach Charbonnet, Isaac Guerendo

Don’t worry people, the Tiersducken will be back next week so we’ll only get one more Triducken for the regular season. I’m truly fed up with picking TD scorers so I’ve outsourced this pick to an intern. Even though technically I didn’t come up with this parlay myself it gets my stamp of approval for whatever that’s worth. So fade it, avoid it or dread it the backup back intern parlay is here and maybe just maybe we nab ourselves a win.

Anytime TD Triducken: Braelon Allen, Zach Charbonnet, Isaac Guerendo (+548)

Bick’s Stone Cold Lock of the Century of the Week

Browns @ Steelers (-6.5)

Betting Tomlin trends worked last week so why not ride with him again. For his entire coaching career will.i.am has never lost to the same QB twice in the same season and call me crazy I think Jameis used up most of his luck winning that snow game on Thursday Night Football. On top of that it’s been 20 years since Cleveland won in Pittsburgh and that’s a streak that won’t be broken. Aside from historical stats, Russ has the moon ball cooking and Pickens is good to go so I’m hammering the Steelers. And maybe sprinkle some on a Steelers Defensive TD while you’re at it because no matter the team we know how much Jameis loves to throw TDs .

Steelers -6.5 (-118)

Week 13 is here people which means I’m really hoping it will be a December to remember after we had November to forget here at Bick’s Picks. Thanksgiving was unfortunately no different as the Lions have continued their annual tradition of disappointing me. To add insult to injury along with failing to cover Detroit also let the Triducken die a slow death by settling field goals. However those smart enough to let cheese stand alone would have profited as the Pack dominated Miami at Lambeau. Prior to Turkey Day our Week 12 was also a bust with only Green Bay coming through for us as the Over, Dawg and Tiersducken all failed. Now for this week because of the holiday we’re once again dealing with a small slate of games but I’m hoping that will only narrow our focus. We’re in the home stretch of the season folks, teams are making the playoff push and I say we make ours so let’s get into it.

Life’s Too Short to Bet the Under

Eagles @ Ravens (50.5)

Admittedly just betting the highest total of the week is the opposite of playing it safe and going for “guaranteed” wins but I can’t resist a Baltimore Over. My potential gambling mistakes aside, this battle of the birds is easily the game of the week and some might consider it a Super Bowl preview. Regardless of where you think these teams are headed, Hurts vs Lamar and Henry vs Barkley are matchups all football fans should enjoy watching. Those dynamic backfields are also why I like this Over so much. This one might start a little slow as both these teams feel each other out but at the end of the day we know they’re capable of scoring. The only thing that gives me pause is that both team’s once reliable kickers have turned into untrustable liabilities. Even though I’m still recovering from the devastating performance of a kicker I’m gonna keep betting that crabcakes and Overs is what Maryland does.

Over 50.5 (-115)

Fade Dawgs

Steelers (+3) @ Bengals

Your eyes do not deceive you the Steelers are in fact the Dawg in this AFC North matchup. Despite having a losing record the Bengals find themselves favorites at home coming off their bye. It seems that Vegas is buying into the Burrow’s usual second half resurgence but personally I can’t ignore the chance to back a Tomlin underdog. Pittsburgh is undefeated as a Dawg this season and for his career will.i.am has a 25-9-2 division record against the spread. Let’s not overthink this one and back the team with the winning record.

Steelers +3 (-110)

The Triducken

Anytime TD Parlay: Mike Evans, AJ Brown, Justin Jefferson

Just like a bad penny the Triducken keeps turning up. The Tiersducken is on hiatus as there has been no tiers movement and honestly I also didn’t plan for what I’d do if all 4 didn’t play on Sunday so here we are. My complaining and inability to a TD parlay aside I do really like these guys to score a TD so apologies to anyone who owns them in fantasy. First is Mike Evans who failed to find pay dirt in his return last week but I’m guessing Baker corrects that against Carolina. Next up is AJ Brown against a Ravens secondary that has allowed the most TDs (16) to receivers this season. Lastly is Justin Jefferson who is coming off his worst performance of the season so I expect an overcorrection. Fade it, avoid it or dread it, that’s this week’s Triducken.

Anytime TD Triducken: Mike Evans, AJ Brown, Justin Jefferson (+937)

Bick’s Stone Cold Lock of the Century of the Week

Titans @ Commanders (-6)

Much like the game earlier in the season against the Giants this is me calling out Washington and betting them to take care of business against a worse team. I won’t ignore this 3 game losing streak and it’s hard to deny that Jayden has regressed but this is absolutely a spot where they should cover if they’re a better team than last season. They’re saying all the right things and seem poised to rebound so call me foolish I’m still bought in. Much like Adam Peters tossing every player Ron Rivera drafted aside I’m stuffing my anxiety and dread deep down and betting on my boys.

Commanders -6 (-108)

Thanksgiving is here people, which means family, food, football and here at Bick’s Picks finacial gain and Madden quotes. Now I’ll admit prior to the holiday we’ve had a couple losing weeks dragging our record down below .500. Sure my Lock hit but the Over came up short, the Dawg got put down and the Tiersducken flopped in its debut. With Turkey Day upon us I thought to myself what would the late, great John Madden do and I found the perfect quote for inspiration: “When the going gets tough, I’m not always sure what you do. I’m not saying that I know how to fix everything when the going gets tough, but I do know this: when the going goes tough, you don’t quit. And you don’t fold up. And you don’t go in the other direction.” Words to live by and that’s exactly what we’re gonna do. We’re gonna stay the course and keep betting with our plums and chasing our losses. So without further delay fill up your plates and let’s get into it.

Feasting Favorites

Lions (-9.5) and Packers (-3.5)

As you all know we love the Dawgs here at Bick’s Picks but not on Thanksgiving. The holiday has always been dominated by the favorites since 2004, favorites on Thanksgiving are 48-9 straight up and 38-19 against the spread. Now we did get burned by following this trend last year as Detroit and  Dan Campbell’s ham eating ass let us down but I don’t think they will this time around. Once again they look like one of the best teams in football and are straight up dominating teams. Admittedly the Bears have some life in recent weeks since firing their OC but I think a short week after an OT game sends them tumbling back down to reality. The other favorite I’m riding with today is the Pack. Now I do have some reservations about backing Love back to back weeks but I don’t see a warm weather Dolphins team covering at the frozen tundra that will be Lambeau Field. Tua has terrible stats in games under 40 degrees and the weather report has the temp well below freezing at kickoff. Now you’ll notice I left one favorite off the bet and can you blame me? My bitterness and bias are coming into play but honestly Drew Lock starting making me lean New York so I’m staying off it completely. So let’s ride with the NFC North and get ourselves some Black Friday money. 

Lions (-9.5) and Packers (-3.5) (+264)

Touchdown Triducken

Anytime TD Parlay: Jahmyr Gibbs, Ceedee Lamb & Josh Jacobs

Anytime TD Parlay: Jahmyr Gibbs, David Montgomery & Amon-Ra St. Brown

Now the Triducken has had it’s struggles this season but hopefully getting back to it’s roots will help it get back on track. After all the Triducken debuted on Thanksgiving and maybe the holiday will give us a little but of luck. I tried to not overthink this one too much but I inevitably did. I thought about picking all Lions or debated over trying to get someone from each game. In the end I couldn’t decide and went with both. I’m expecting a Lions blow out so I think everyone gonna eat. And in regards to Ceedee and Jacobs they seemed to be the most sure things to me in the later games. Sure Ceedee has Cooper Rush throwing him the ball but he’s been peppered with targets and it’s just a matter of time till he scores. So pick your poison the Triducken got options for the holiday but call me crazy I’m thinking they both hit. 

Anytime TD Triducken: Jahmyr Gibbs, CeeDee Lamb & Josh Jacobs (+559)

Anytime Lions Triducken: Jahmyr Gibbs, David Montgomery & Amon-Ra St. Brown (+480)

Week 12 is here people which means you should double check that fantasy football lineup because the bye-pocalypse is upon us. This is the smallest slate we’ll get all season with 6 teams taking the week off which makes this a gaggle of games only a mother could love. This Sunday doesn’t feature a single matchup between teams with winning records, which to be honest is something we should be used to here at Bick’s Picks as we’ve been doing our fair share of losing. I’m truly ashamed to say we had our first 0-4 week of the 2024 season but I intend to make it the last. We were unfortunately let down by some typically reliable bets as the Ravens Over and an underdog Mahomes failed to come through. Meanwhile the Packers won but they didn’t cover for us and of course the Triducken predictably fell a CMC leg short. Speaking of the Triducken, enough is enough. It’s long overdue but we’re shaking things up and adding a new segment. Don’t worry people, the Triducken will rear its ugly head soon enough but with Thanksgiving right around the corner we need to get this gravy train back on track so let’s get into it.

Life’s Too Short to Bet the Under

Buccaneers @ Giants (40.5)

Not only did the Baltimore Over let us down but of course they play on MNF this week so no chance for redemption. But hey that’s okay relying on “sure things” burned us last week so why not get a little nutty with this one. This time I’m chasing a low number in a game where both teams are rested coming off the bye. Admittedly Giants aren’t an Over team but I’m hoping that New York finally ending the Daniel Jones era will result in a boost for the offense. If Tommy Cutlets doesn’t come through though Baker is getting his favorite weapon back in Mike Evans so I’m hoping they’ll do most of the heavy lifting to get us to our total in the swamps of Jersey.

Over 40.5 (-110)

Fade Dawgs

Patriots @ Dolphins (+7.5)

Apologies in advance Pats fans but I’m sorry I gotta say I love you guys in this spot and I love the number. Sure it’s at Hard Rock where New England tends to struggle but I don’t think they lose by more than a TD. Now this does go in the face of recent trends as the Dolphins have covered the spread in their last 8 games vs the Patriots but the difference maker this time will be Drake Maye. I think the kid keeps getting better every week and I think today he does enough to keep this game close to the very end. This pick certainly does come with risk but I like it alot more than talking myself into Panthers +10.5 vs the Chiefs.

Patriots +7.5 (-115)

The Tiersducken

The Triducken was long overdue to be replaced with a new segment and thanks to our benevolent editor I had a great idea how. You all know how much I love to talk about Jayden Daniels so I figured why not do a weekly tier list of all the starting rookie quarterbacks? Now this isn’t just a chance for me to preach the gospel of JD5 I’ll also be picking a prop for each QB and maybe just maybe find ourselves a winning segment. So without further ado here’s our tier list.

1. Jayden Daniels

2. Bo Nix

3. Drake Maye 

4. Caleb Williams

I mean you had to know I’d have my boy at the top as he’s already been rookie of the week 7 times and is the odds on favorite to win rookie of the year. Bo has quickly shot up the rankings because if you asked me a few weeks ago he might be number 4 but he’s really coming into his own. Maye meanwhile is doing his best with not a whole lot around him and at the very least looks like he could be the franchise QB the Pats were hoping for. And Caleb Williams blows. Now you didn’t come here for pinions you came here for picks and speaking of picks I figured I’d keep this first week simple and just bet whether or not each of these rookies throws an interception. So let’s bet Jayden, Bo and Drake to practice good ball security and for Caleb to stay in the tiers basement.

Tiersducken Parlay: Interceptions Thrown O/U: Jayden Daniels Under .5, Bo Nix Under .5, Drake Maye Under .5, Caleb Williams Over .5 (+984)  

Bick’s Stone Cold Lock of the Century of the Week

49ers @ Packers (-5.5)

Well, well, well, if it isn’t the consequences of my own actions. I know I picked the Packers as my Lock last week but you gotta be like a goldfish here at Bick’s Picks, we can’t let last week’s losses prevent us from taking advantage of this week’s wins. The big reason I’m back on the Pack is I’m fading the team that’s without their starter this Sunday. Now I’ll fully admit I kinda think Brock Purdy stinks but I like him alot more than whoever the hell Brandon Allen is. It genuinely blew my mind this guy has been farting around the league since 2016 and honestly I thought it was Kyle Allen when I initially heard the news about Purdy. Either way San Fran will be without their starting qb, their top pass rusher and maybe even their All Pro left tackle. Those absences alone and my disdain for Kyle Shanahan were enough for me to ignore that Jordan Love annoys the bejesus out of me. The dude WILL throw an interception and I will hate this pick for a moment during this game but I really hope we don’t sweat this one out too much and can actually enjoy our cheese this Sunday.

Packers -5.5 (-115)

Week 11 is here people which means another week of marquee matchups and hopefully some winning bets. Full disclosure much like my Washington Commanders we’re in a little bit of funk here at Bick’s Picks. I suppose we’re not outright losing but we’ve been stuck in neutral as we had yet another 2-2 week. Not even the return of CMC could get the Triducken back on track and don’t get me started about the Vikings not covering against the Jags. Thankfully we broke even because the Over hit in the Washington game. And the Cardinals finally made Dennis Green proud as the Jets are who we thought they were and they didn’t let them off the hook. Admittedly because of the TNF loss I really wanted this week of football to just go away but that’s not how this works and the picks must go on so let’s get into it.

Life’s Too Short to Bet the Under

Ravens @ Steelers (48)

I shouldn’t have to explain this one too much do I? With a record of 9-1 on the season Baltimore Overs have been one of the most reliable bets of the 2024 season. Add that with the fact the number is below 50 and on the other side Russ has the moon ball cooking? Don’t overthink it people, let’s ride this train till the wheels fall off.

Over 48 (-112)

Fade Dawgs

Chiefs (ML) @ Bills

Just like the Over I don’t have to explain this one much do I? The only thing more reliable in 2024 than Ravens’ Overs is the Chiefs somehow, some way, finding a way to win. Now add that with the fact we’re backing Mahomes as a Dawg, forget about it. I’m not even gonna pretend my pick goes deeper than that. When Mahomes is an underdog we ride with the Chiefs plain and simple.

Chiefs ML (+110)

Touchdown Triducken

Anytime TD Parlay: Josh Jacobs, Derrick Henry, Christian McCaffery

I know what you’re thinking. I thought you said you weren’t gonna do another Triducken? Do you like losing money? Can I bet these guys to not score? Frankly all good questions but in the end we’re back here picking TDs because I’m stubborn. Similar to last week, nothing fancy we’re taking short odds and trying to will the Triducken to a win. I figure CMC has to find pay dirt this week and then I’m riding with the two backs in the games I picked because if I expect scoring in those games not double down? Fade it, avoid it or dread it, that’s this week’s Triducken.

Anytime TD Triducken: Josh Jacobs, Derrick Henry, Christian McCaffery (+291)

Bick’s Stone Cold Lock of the Century of the Week

Packers (-6) @ Bears

Last week I picked two teams for the Lock and I suppose that’s my fault. Believe I got words to say about Darnold and the Vikings but I save that for another time. But similar to last week I’m picking a team to win against a team who’s starting quarterback is dead. Now I know what you’ll say but I thought Caleb Williams is still playing? And I’d respond by saying sure technically he’s still alive but have you watched how he’s played? That Jayden Hail Mary might’ve completely broken the Bears as they’ve looked absolutely abmissal since. Sure they fired their OC this week but I doubt that changes anything. Add that with the fact that LaFleur and Green Bay have won 10 straight against Chicago this had to be my Lock. Undoubtedly Love will throw a pick and make us worried for a minute but in the end we’ll be enjoying our cheese this Sunday.

Packers-6 (-115)

Onto week 11 after another 2/3 performance last week. Week 11 has some good matchups and one I’m sure a lot of people will be watching is the Bills and Chiefs. Patrick Mahomes as an underdog at Buffalo. I hope Andrew is recovering from Thursday night.

Best Bet. Rams -4.5

I don’t believe in this Patriots team and the Rams need wins. The Rams are going to make a playoff push and need this game. 4.5 points with Puka, Kyren, and Kupp against the Pats give me that all day.

Dawg of the day- Bengals ML

Joe Burrow is having a great year and needs this game. He gets his man Tee Higgins back this week and that should help him and the team out. The Chargers defense looks good, but I’m not sold on the offense. They haven’t really beat anyone that good and I think this will be a good test for them. Give me Burrow at plus money.

Falcons ML

They just lost to the Saints so you may ask yourself why take them. I think this is a good bounce back and we are getting the better team at plus money here. Bo Nix will throw 1 or 2 picks and the Falcons will roll and bounce back this week

Week 10 is here people which means bust out the bratwurst and Becks because the NFL Europe is back. However, as enticing a matchup between the Giants and Panthers is, I think I’ll let the krauts have fun with that one and focus on the rest of this weekend’s slate of games. Now before we do that as always let’s look back to last week where we once again stumbled our way to another 2-2 record. The ever reliable Ravens Over hit and even though it was closer than it should’ve been, Washington in the end swept New York for the Lock. Meanwhile the TD Triducken did it’s usual belly flop and even though you absolutely hate to see it, betting the Cowboys effectively ended their season. But unlike Dak our season here at Bick’s Picks is far from over so shout out one last “Yea Here We Go” and let’s get into it.

Life’s Too Short to Bet the Under

Steelers @ Commanders (45)

With the Baltimore Over already doing its thing and hitting on Thursday Night I knew we’d have to look elsewhere this week. As you can see in the end I didn’t look all that far. Admittedly, I really wanted to put my guys as the Lock again but decided not to tempt fate and instead I’ll simply bet this one to be a barn burner. My love and admiration for all things Jayden is well documented so I won’t go on about how great our college offense is instead the reason I like the Over here is the Steelers. Whether you like it or not Russ has the moon ball cooking and has Pittsburgh hitting Overs. Last week Daniel Jones also reminded people that teams can move the ball on our defense so I expect a well rested Tomlin team to do just that. In the end I believe Washington wins this game and proves all the sharps wrong but let’s just bet the Over to be safe.

Over 45 (-110)

Fade Dawgs

Jets @ Cardinals (ML)

I’m not gonna lie, forcing myself to pick an underdog every week has been some tricky business and no week more so than this one. I really struggled to find a pick I could back with logic and stats so this one is all plums. We’re gonna completely ignore what the Jets did on TNF vs the Texans and go with my instincts that Rodgers is washed. I just don’t want to believe that they’ve saved their season and I just want to see that douche-nozzle fail. His whole greater than the team attitude makes me sick and watching him get hit makes me smile. The Cardinals are getting +1.5 but screw that we don’t need the points we’re riding the moneyline. So grab a Mountain Dew and throw on your gaming headset because we’re rolling with Call of Duty Kyler this Sunday.

Cardinals ML (+110)

Touchdown Triducken

Anytime TD Parlay: Christian McCaffery, Saquon Barkley, Kareem Hunt

He’s back! If anyone can save the TD Triducken it should be CMC. Is betting him to score his first week back risky? Is -250 a ridiculous anytime TD number given it’s his first week back? Do I hate myself for betting it? Yup, yup, yup! But we’re doing it anyway. And just so we can try to get the Triducken a win I’ll go with two other backs that seem destined to hit pay dirt in Barkley and Hunt. This won’t get the big payday people often want out of a parlay but it should hit right? Right?!

Anytime TD Triducken: Christian McCaffery, Saquon Barkley, Kareem Hunt (+260)

Bick’s Stone Cold Lock of the Century of the Week

Eagles (-6.5) @ Cowboys & Vikings (-6.5) @ Jaguars

Yea that’s right I’m getting a little screwy with the lock but frankly I like both these favorites so much I had to. Thought about changing the name of the pick to the other guy’s QB is dead parlay but that doesn’t have the same ring to it. But that’s the crux of the matter and the main reason I love both these teams. Dak and Trevor Lawrence are done which means it’s time for Cooper Rush and Mac Jones. Neither of these guys should inspire any confidence and frankly these spreads would be much worse if the underdogs weren’t at home. Full disclosure the line for both these games is -7 but since we’re parlaying I’m gonna take the half a point so we don’t push. If you don’t believe both will win I suppose you could take just one but we’re getting greedy today.

Eagles (-6.5) and Vikings (-6.5) (+214)