Pittsburgh Steelers (3-7) vs. Indianapolis Colts (4-6-1)

The Spread: Colts (-2.5)

If you’ve been reading these blogs this year you know I’m just blindly taking Pittsburgh as an underdog here. I’ve gone to the well with this strategy a ton this year and that has yielded mixed results. I know the Colts have been playing well under Jeff Saturday, but I just don’t see how they keep up this up. Pittsburgh has looked like a different team since TJ Watt’s return as well. Sure they lost to Cincinnati last week, but we’re talking about one of the best teams in the AFC and they we’re able to keep it to a 7 point game. I like the way the Steelers have played the last two weeks more than the Colts so I’m taking the points.

The Play: Steelers +2.5

Total (39.5)

This is a super low total so the over is tempting, but I’d hate to take it and have these offenses show their true colors and score no points. Pittsburgh is 6-4 to the under and Indy is 9-2. I can’t imagine a ton of points are scored in this game. Have to go under here.

The Play: Under 39.5

Final Prediction

Steelers 17 Colts 14

It’s been a busy holiday weekend, but that doesn’t mean the people don’t need picks. I’m going rapid fire here, let’s get started.

Favorite

Seahawks (-4) vs. Raiders

I love Seattle to bounce back this week. The Raiders can only beat the Broncos apparently and if the Seahawks want to be for real here than they have to take care of teams like this. Seahawks by a touchdown.

Charlie Murphy’s Habitual Line Stepper of the Week (Underdog)

Texans (+13.5) vs. Dolphins

Simply put, this is too many points. The Texans haven’t been blown out a ton this year and Miami has only won by more than six points twice. Dolphins win easy, Texans cover.

Over

Packers vs. Eagles (46)

The Packers offense seems to have at least slightly remembered how to play football so I like this at a lower number. The Eagles should have no problem doing their part here against a so-so Green Bay defense. Both teams get into the mid-20’s to hit this over.

Under

Broncos vs. Panthers (36)

This is a preposterously low number so I have to take it. Sam Darnold tries his hand at QB for the Panthers against a very good Broncos defense. I’m sure that will go well. Russell Wilson’s offense surely won’t be scoring any points either. As long as there aren’t some bullshit quicks scores to pump up the total this game could actually end 0-0.

The Definitely Not My Lock of the Week Bonus Pick

Commanders (-4) vs. Falcons

Just like the Seahawks, if the Commanders want to seriously contend for a playoff spot they have to take care of business against a team like Atlanta. They matchup well with Atlanta’s penchant for running the ball because their very good defensive line and Taylor Heinicke can do just enough to get them the win. Commanders by a touchdown.

Happy Thanksgiving to the seven people that read these picks. This Thursday as you know we have three games instead of just one. What we’re going to do here is give one pick for each game. Whether that be against the spread or on the total I’ll talk about each game quickly and then give a pick.

Bills (-9.5) vs. Lions (+9.5) (54)

The total here is a bit too high for my liking. As much as I’d like to sit back and get the day started with a nice over I can’t get on board with this one. That leaves us with a 9.5 point spread to deal with. The Lions are playing inspired football as of late, but as it goes with the Lions I’m wondering when that’s going to end. The Bills bounced back nicely last week with a win over the Browns, but I still worry about Josh Allen’s elbow, especially when we’re talking about a spread this big. I have no doubts the Lions will be able to score points in this game the question is can they keep up with Buffalo? I think the answer to that is yes, and solely because I’m not convinced Josh Allen is 100% healthy just yet. Bills win by single digits and the Lions cover.

The Play: Lions +9.5

Giants (+10) vs. Cowboys (-10) (45.5)

Another big spread here. The Cowboys looked like world beaters Sunday when they went up to Minnesota and dismantled an 8-1 Vikings team. I think that, along with the fact that the Giants seem to be fading a bit has inflated this line. Now I don’t necessarily buy the idea that the Giants are a really good team and I do think they’ve overperformed to this point. I think the reason for that is that they found themselves a very good coach in Brian Daboll. The Giants know that the near guaranteed playoff berth it seemed they had a couple weeks ago is at major risk of slipping away and especially so if they go out and lay a dud on Thursday. I think Daboll has them ready to rip and if he does there’s no reason they can’t keep this under 10. The Cowboys are also 1-10 ATS on Thanksgiving since 2011. I’d say it’s more likely than not they win this game too, but by more than 10? I don’t think so. I also like the over here, but I’ll take the points with New York.

The Play: Giants +10

Patriots (+2.5) vs. Vikings (-2.5) (42.5)

I know what you’re thinking here. Is he going to do it? Is he going to take a third straight underdog? You’re damn right I’m going to. I mean, come on if you’re reading this you know me, and if you know me you know I’m not picking against the Pats. The line has already come down from 3 to 2.5 as well. That means Vegas thinks the Pats are a half point better on a neutral field. Ooh and one more thing. It’s Kirk Cousins in Prime Time. I don’t care who the Vikings were playing I’d be picking against them in this game. If the Patriots offense can remember how to move the ball and help their defense out a little I don’t see any reason why they couldn’t win this game.

The Play: Patriots +2.5

San Francisco 49ers (5-4) vs. Arizona Cardinals (4-6)

The Spread: 49ers (-10)

I have absolutely no idea again. Colt McCoy gets the start at QB for the Cardinals which has inflated this line to 10 points. McCoy was able to lead them to victory last week against the Rams, but will he be able to keep it up versus a very good San Francisco defense? Deandre Hopkins is in line to play as we speak, but the Cardinals will be without Zach Ertz and Hollywood Brown. I think the Niners win this game no problem, but the line is scaring me a bit. It feels like the 49ers don’t blow teams out, but four of their five wins have been by more than 10 points. I’m having trouble picking against San Francisco here. I just think that we’ve already seen the Colt McCoy game this year and I’m not sure he’s capable of doing it again against a good team. I don’t love it, but I’m riding with the 49ers here.

The Play: 49ers -10

Total (43)

I’m just going to lay it all out for you here. I need Deebo and McCaffrey to go off for my fantasy team tonight so I’m picking the over strictly based off that. It’s a low number so I’m hoping if we can get a couple touchdowns on the board early we can get to this total. The Niners defense should be able to shut down the Cardinals, but if they can get into the upper teens points wise then for San Francisco to cover the over will have to hit. I just think this is slightly too low of a number for these teams even with McCoy in at QB.

The Play: Over 43

Final Prediction

49ers 30 Cardinals 17

Welcome to my NFL Week 11 betting guide. Each week we are going to pick one favorite, one underdog (AKA Charlie Murphy’s Habitual Line Stepper of the Week), one over, one under, and we’ll cap it off with a bonus pick that I can’t call my lock of the week anymore because it keeps losing. Let’s get started.

Favorite

Eagles (-6.5) vs. Colts

The look ahead line for this game was 10.5 before Monday Night. It’s a cool narrative to think that Jeff Saturday completely fixed the Colts, but I’m supposed to be sold on this team after beating who? The Raiders? On the other hand I’m supposed to sell on the Eagles after one loss? I’m not doing that either. The Commanders played a great game Monday Night, but a lot went wrong for the Eagles and they still were in the game right down to the end. This feels like a let down spot for the Colts coming off an emotional win last week. The Eagles roll here.

Charlie Murphy’s Habitual Line Stepper of the Week (Underdog)

Steelers (+4) vs. Bengals

Back to the well with the Steelers I go. Last time I took them they got run out of the building by the Eagles so I’m ready to get hurt again. The thing about that game was they didn’t have TJ Watt. He is such a game changer for this team overall. Don’t fact check me, but I think the Steelers have won like a game or two when Watt has missed time since he’s gotten to Pittsburgh. They also beat the Bengals in a wild game to start the season. Four points is a lot for a divisional game and a home underdog at that. I’ll always take Mike Tomlin in that situation, go Steelers here.

Over

Browns vs. Bills (49.5)

I wish I got in on this over when the game was supposed to be played in six feet of snow, but if you snooze you lose. Now with the game being played in Detroit points shouldn’t be hard to come by. The Bills should be on a mission to put a beatdown on Cleveland here and luckily for them the Browns defense couldn’t stop a nosebleed. Look for Buffalo to get back on track offensively. Cleveland should be able to do enough to get us to 50 in this one. If they can get anywhere around 20 points the Bills should take care of the rest.

Under

Raiders vs. Broncos (41)

I don’t really love any unders this week so why not take the best team to the under this year? 8 of 9 Broncos games have gone under the total so far this season. Only problem with this pick is that one game that went over was against the Raiders. Water always finds it’s level though, so if these two put up over 50 last time they played I think they can keep it in the 30’s this time.

The Definitely Not My Lock of the Week Bonus Pick

Cowboys (-1.5) vs. Vikings

You might ask yourself why would an 8-1 team be getting points at home against a team that just blew a 14 point fourth quarter lead to Green Bay last week? I asked myself the same question, but I think this is just another case of Vegas baiting you into taking Minnesota. The Vikings are coming off a huge comeback win over the Bills and the Cowboys off the aforementioned game against the Packers. Buy low, sell high as they say. The game is also at 4:25. Not necessarily prime time, but there’s going to be a lot of eyes on this one. We all know what happens to Kirk Cousins in those scenarios. This game feels like a classic case of sniffing out the rat line and that’s what the Vikings getting points is. Cowboys take this one on the road.

Tennessee Titans (6-3) vs. Green Bay Packers (4-6)

The Spread: Packers -3

I’m really struggling with this one. It feels like Green Bay might finally be on to something after beating Dallas last week. Tennessee has won some low scoring grind-it-out type games against not so good teams recently, but they have continued to find ways to win. They even had a late lead in Kansas City a couple weeks ago with Malik Willis at QB not Ryan Tannehill. Everything about how last week went makes you thing Green Bay is a lock, but I’m just not completely sold on that yet. Green Bay at home in the cold on a short week sounds all well and good, but you have to remember how this team has looked all season and that hasn’t been great. Tennessee is also dealing with injuries to some key players on their defense which continues to make me lean towards the Packers, but one thing keeps bringing me back. That’s Derrick Henry. The Packers have been awful against the run this year and this is the time of year where Henry thrives the most. Even with Tannehill and the passing game limited I still think Henry has a big game. This has all the makings of a close, low scoring, grind of a game and I’ll almost always take the points when that’s the case.

The Play: Titans +3

Over/Under (42)

For all the reasons I mentioned above this game screams under. The Titans are going to run the ball a ton and eat the clock. The Packers offense has been non-existent recently besides last week. Tennessee is 7-2 to the under this year as well. No need to repeat the same things I’ve already said take the under here.

The Play: Under 42

Final Prediction

Titans 21 Packers 17

Washington Commanders (4-5) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (8-0)

The Spread: Eagles (-10.5)

The last time these two teams played the Eagles ran away with a 24-8 victory. Who’s to say that won’t happen again? Well hopefully for the Commanders sake Taylor Heinicke has something to say about it. Last time these teams met it was Carson Wentz at QB for Washington. Since Heinicke took over the starting job the Commanders are 2-1 with that one loss being a heartbreaker to the 8-1 Vikings. I like the direction Washington is trending in and, the last time we saw the Eagles they struggled for a large portion of their game against the Texans. They were favored by as much as 14 and only held a 4 point lead heading into the fourth quarter and won by 12. I’m not saying they won’t win this game, but 10.5 is a lot of points. I think Washington is able to hang around here and give us at least a semi entertaining Monday Night game for once.

The Play: Commanders +10.5

Over/Under (43.5)

If I’m going with Washington on the spread here I feel like the under is the best move to go along with it. If they are going to keep this game close they’re going to have to control the clock and force some turnovers and we all know those are over killers. If they can weather the storm that is the second quarter Eagles I think they’ll be able to stick around in this game and keep the point total low. It feels good to go back to what started my Monday/Thursday winning streak (which feels like years ago at this point) and that was the underdog and the under.

The Play: Under 43.5

Final Prediction

Eagles 24 Commanders 17

I’m up against the clock again this week so unfortunately this will be another shorter post. Last week we went 4-0-1 on Sunday though so maybe the shorter posts are good luck? Let’s find out.

Favorite

Rams (-1.5) vs. Cardinals

I know Matthew Stafford might not play, but this is a bet on Sean McVay beating Kliff Kingsbury for what feels like the 1,000th time. Just like taking Shanahan over McVay is a set it and forget it type of move so is McVay over Kingsbury. Matt Stafford or John Wolford? I don’t care give me the Rams.

Charlie Murphy’s Habitual Line Stepper of the Week (Underdog)

Seahawks (+2.5) vs. Buccaneers

The Bucs have burned me for weeks now so I’m turning my back on them. That’s a surefire way to know you’re going to lose a bet, but Geno and the boys have been machine’s ATS this year. Not to mention they’ve been the better team so far this season as well. Seahawks win outright (just like last week) in Germany.

Over

Bears vs. Lions (48.5)

So we know the Lions are an over team, but are the Bears an over team now too? They just might be and the Lions defense will only help them to score points. My man Justin Fields has been electric as of late and that shouldn’t slow down on Sunday. I think we might have a little shootout between a couple of perennial NFC North basement dwellers on our hands.

Under

Chiefs vs. Jaguars (51)

The Jaguars should never be in a game with a total over 50 points. That’s my logic here. I understand the Chiefs are the Chiefs, but their offense hasn’t been quite as explosive this year as it has been in the past without Tyreek Hill. We might have to sweat this one out, but the under is the play.

The Definitely Not My Lock of the Week Bonus Pick

Browns (+3.5) vs. Dolphins

Cleveland has been able to hang around with some good teams this year and I’m banking on them doing that again. While Miami has looked good this year they have also squeaked by a couple of teams including the Bears last week. I just think that half a point changes everything. I can see the Browns losing by a field goal here and still covering. This will be a close game, I’ll take the points.

Atlanta Falcons (4-5) vs. Carolina Panthers (2-7)

The Spread: Falcons (-2.5)

At first glance you would think the Falcons are easy money here, but it’s never that simple in divisional games. These teams just had an absolute shootout two weeks ago that the Falcons were lucky to eek out. This line was at 3 and has now come down to 2.5. I’m assuming that means money is coming in on Carolina, but it makes me like Atlanta even more because they can cover with a field goal. Neither of these teams are good, but there is one that is still very much alive in the divisional race and that’s Atlanta. They have to take care of business against inferior opponents and that’s what the Panthers are. PJ Walker will make the start for the Panthers, but regardless of who lines up under center for Carolina you still have to ride with the Falcons. The Falcons have lost their last three ATS and this is a great chance to get back on track. If they win this game it’ll be by at least a field goal so I’ll give up the points and take Atlanta.

The Play: Falcons -2.5

Over/Under (42.5)

I’m going off recency bias for this one. The last time these two played the final score was 37-34. You could take two touchdowns off of both teams final scores and still hit this over with a 23-20 final. Atlanta is 5-4 to the over and Carolina is 4-5. That doesn’t sound all that impressive, but when you consider the rate unders are hitting at this year it’s not bad. No team has hit more than 5 overs this year so far. With such a low number I can’t pass it up. This should be easy, but nothing ever is in the NFL.

The Play: Over 42.5

Final Prediction

Falcons 27 Panthers 21

Here we have a Monday night game with two teams that seem impossible to predict. Both are under .500 ATS, but have pulled out games you wouldn’t have expected them to along with losing some headscratchers. Yesterdays card was 4-0-1 which was great. Unfortunately though I am no longer the spread king on Mondays and Thursdays as I’ve lost my last five of those games ATS. Here’s to getting back on track tonight somehow.

The Spread: Ravens (-1.5)

Baltimore seems to be controlling a large portion of the bets and the handle (on Draftkings) and for good reason. They have been the better team this year for sure. I just don’t know how much I trust them as they haven’t performed great ATS this season. The Saints are always dangerous at home, but they might be biting off a little more than they can chew against the Ravens. With the line at 1.5 you’re basically taking the team you think is going to win the game here. My head is telling me Baltimore walks away with this one, but my messed up gambling mind (which always seems to win out) is saying the Saints win this game at home because everyone is counting them out. WynnBET is also reporting 77% of the money is on New Orleans tonight while the bet count on Baltimore is at 65%. A vast difference from Draftkings. It feels like the smart money is on the Saints here. I don’t love it, but I’m rolling with it.

The Play: Saints +1.5

Over/Under 46.5

I’m also having trouble with this one. I think I like the over, but I’ve been burned by both of these teams picking totals this year. Last week the Saints put up 24 points, but blanked the Raiders and gave me no shot at that over. I had the over in Ravens/Bengals earlier this year as well and that turned into a slugfest that went way under the total. The Saints are 2-2 to the over at home and the Ravens are the same on the road. I will say though, I can never turn down a nice dome game over. I’m getting back to my roots here. Give me points.

The Play: Over 46.5

Final Prediction

Saints 27 Ravens 24