After a dreadful Week 1 I found myself on the right side Thursday Night’s spread. Hopefully that is a sign of things to come, but you never know especially when you suck at gambling like I do.

Packers vs. Falcons (-1.5)

I’m not sure what it is, but I like the Falcons a lot this year. I think they even have a chance to win the South if things break their way. As for this game though, I think Atlanta is going to run all over the Packers defense Sunday. I know Jordan Love looked good last weekend, but I’m expecting a bit of regression back to the mean this week for him, and the Green Bay offense. I like the spread where its at too. Less than a field goal bodes well for the Falcons in what most likely will be a close game.

Seahawks vs Lions (Over 47)

This theoretically should be a fun over. The Lions offense at home indoors should put be able to up some serious points. The Seahawks offense cannot possibly be as bad as they were last week. It doesn’t take much to get to 47. One good quarter should put us on pace and even a bad one won’t cripple you. The last two times these teams met they have scored at least 80 combined points. That has never happened between the same two teams in three straight meetings. We don’t need that though we just have to get to 48.

Commanders vs. Broncos (Under 38.5)

There’s no way this isn’t a snooze fest of a game. Both teams have good defenses and either somewhat inept (Washington) or completely inept (Denver) offenses. I like Washington to win in a close low scoring game. For what it’s worth I like the Commanders +3.5 as well, but they burned me last week and I think the under is the safer play here.

Vikings vs. Eagles (-6.5) (48.5)

I am a broken man after Week 1. That was one of, if not my worst, week since I started writing these. So I’d say whatever I pick here you should probably fade. Anyways, I got chance to watch the entirety of the Eagles game on Sunday against the Patriots and they played about one good quarter and then hung on for dear life to win the game. Minnesota on the other hand was on the losing side of my only win last week against Tampa Bay. I’m conflicted here because this seems like a prime bounce back spot for the Vikings, but it could also be a chance for the Eagles to get back on track and play a complete game. Minnesota did outgain Tampa last week and the Eagles were outgained by New England. I feel like with the line sitting up at 6.5 you’re better off taking the dog and hoping for a close game. I don’t ever advocate for it, but I’m doing it. We’re taking Prime Time Kirk. What a way to try and get back on track.

The Play: Vikings +6.5

So, I’m just going to say it, we’re not off to a great start. 1-4 on the season is not ideally how I would’ve liked to start my season, but here we are. I’ve been pretty vocal about who I’m backing in this game so I’ll keep this post short and sweet.

Bills (-2) vs. Jets (44.5)

I need a big win tonight. Plain and simple. I am all over the Bills in this game. I think the Jets will be a competitive team this year, but I also think because there are a lot of new faces on that team (QB included) it may take a few weeks for them to gel. I’m also just an Aaron Rodgers hater and I’m a Jets hater. I’m not letting those factors blind me with this bet though. I think the Bills as less than a field goal favorites is crazy value. This is a team that won 13 games last year and didn’t lose much. The Jets have to prove it to me and until they do I’m not buying them. Bills roll tonight.

It’s finally time for the first full slate of Sunday games for the year and I couldn’t be more ecstatic. Like I mentioned in Thursday’s post I’m going to adjusting the format slightly this year. Instead of picking one favorite, underdog, over, under, and lock I’m just going to be giving my best bet’s for the week whatever they may be. Week 1 is always tricky to forecast so I have my work cut out for me here, but let’s get into it.

Patriots (+4) vs. Eagles

How could we not start off with one of Charlie Murphy’s Habitual Line Steppers of the Week? As crazy as it sounds this feels like a Week 1 trap game for the Eagles. They are coming off and incredible season that saw them fall just short in the Super Bowl and the Patriots missed the playoffs going 8-9 last season. For some reason though I think the Pats are going to be feisty in this one. An improved offense in terms of weapons and a new OC should work wonders for Mac Jones. Yes, the offensive line is going to be an issue, but they weren’t full healthy this preseason so I expect them to look at least marginally better as a unit. I think a little Super Bowl hangover is also in the cards for the Eagles as well. On a day where the Patriots honor Tom Brady they get back to doing what they did for 20 years with him under center. Win.

Commanders (-7) vs. Cardinals

The Cardinals come into this season in one of the more obvious “tank modes” in recent history. With Caleb Williams primed to be the number one overall pick and the team seemingly out on Kyler Murray at this point it all adds up. Sometimes teams in this spot come out and surprise their opponents in Week 1. I think back to the Jaguars beating the Colts in Week 1 a couple years ago only to finish the season 1-15. I just don’t see that happening here and I think this line is a bit too low especially with Josh Dobbs at QB. After a couple games I think we’ll start to see Cardinals lines starting to sit closer to 10. The Commanders are going to be a tough out this year too. Maybe not a playoff team per say, but competitive. They have to have this game if they think they’re going to make a run at the playoffs and they should play like it. There’s no reason they can’t win by more than a score here.

Buccaneers (+5.5) vs. Vikings

This is easily the grossest bet I’m going to make this week, but I like it for some reason. The Vikings won a ton of one score games last year and the Bucs still have the remnants of a decent roster. Baker Mayfield tends to pull shit out of his ass from time to time as well. This Bucs team kind of reminds me of the Sam Darnold Panthers from a couple years ago. They started out hot at 3-0 and then regressed back to what we thought they were. I think Tampa could get hot early in a bad division and then come back down to earth. This feels like a close game regardless. Someone wins by a field goal. Bucs cover.

Texans (+10) vs. Ravens

I could be completely out of bounds on this one, but it just feels like Lamar Jackson’s teams have tended to play inferior teams closely time after time. The Texans with a new head coach and their new franchise QB should be motivated to come out and play a competitive game on Sunday. I think DeMeco Ryans will have some tricks up his sleeve on how to handle Lamar as well. Texans will keep it close and the Ravens will pull it out late, but by less than 10. Texans cover.

It’s finally time to kick off the 2023-24 NFL season and you know what that means? Time to start (hopefully) giving out some winners. I am changing the format up a little bit for this season too. For standalone games I will only be giving out one pick whether that’s against the spread or a total. For Sundays I will be picking somewhere between three and five games most weeks aka my “best bets” for the weekend. I won’t be doing one of each like in the past, but don’t worry there will still be plenty of Charlie Murphy’s Habitual Line Steppers on the board.

So, now that’s out of the way let’s get into the season opener.

Lions vs. Chiefs (-4.5) (52.5)

This line has swung two points in the last day or two with news of Travis Kelce’s injury, and potential to miss this game, as well as Chris Jones’ contract situation keeping him out of this one. With the Chiefs second and third best players out or potentially out for the game it makes the Lions all the more enticing. Detroit (along with the Jets) have been the talk of the offseason as teams ready to take that leap into the playoff picture. Well what a test the Lions get in Week 1 with the defending Super Bowl Champs. I do like what they were able to do in the draft adding to their offense with Jahmyr Gibbs and Sam LaPorta to go along with an already strong receiving corps. I also love Dan Campbell and his ability to motivate, but we are talking about going up against Patrick Mahomes here. Like I said, the Chiefs second and third best players are likely out for this one, but their best player (and the best player in the league) will still be on the field tonight. Had Kelce and Jones been playing, and the line was still at -6.5, I think I still would have went Chiefs. Now with it down at -4.5 even with some of their best players out I still like Kansas City tonight. I have a feeling a lot of casual bettors (which I am one of) are going to be heavily on the Lions tonight, and who can blame them? It’s the more fun bet for sure, but we’re trying to make money here. As much as I’d love to root for the Lions tonight I have to go with my gut on this one.

The Play: Chiefs -4.5

Kansas City Chiefs (14-3) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (14-3)

Spread: Eagles (-1.5) Total: (51)

One more NFL gambling blog for the season and it’s the most important pick of the year. Super Bowl 57 is finally here and what a game it should be. There are a lot of factors at play that make this game difficult to handicap. Let’s get into my pick for the spread and I’ll even throw out some props that I like at the end.

The Eagles have been the public betting favorite since the first lines went up after the AFC Championship game. They actually opened as 2 point underdogs, and so much money came in on them it flipped the line by the morning which has now settled at 1.5. This just feels eerily similar to the Bengals game for the Chiefs though. A hotshot team with a young QB, coming off a dominant win over a very good opponent gets all the love from the public. I don’t think I can make the same mistake again. Sure, the Chiefs have been horrendous ATS this year (7-11-1), but that’s mostly been due to them being favored by a large margin and not covering in a win. I understand the Chiefs are banged up too, but I still don’t see why we should be giving Patrick Mahomes any points in any game. As an underdog he is 7-1-1 ATS and 6-3 SU in 9 starts. Every time I think of a reason why the Eagles could win the game in my head my counterpoint is always “Patrick Mahomes.”

As for the rest of the game it’s tough to ignore the Eagles talent across the board. There’s no denying the names they have, but are we just going to forget the fact that the Chiefs defense only gave up 20 points to the Bengals two weeks ago? I mean just matching up offenses the Bengals are better at QB, RB, and WR. TE is a slight lean towards Philly and the offensive line is a runaway by the Eagles. I think people are underestimating what the Kansas City defense can do. When you look at the Chiefs too, especially on offense, they have guys that have been there before in big games and that experience could make a difference late in the game. It goes without saying, but the Chiefs also have the advantage at head coach as well. I don’t want to look back on this game and think to myself “why did I bet against Mahomes getting points?” Like I said earlier I’m not making that mistake again. I see Mahomes leading a late scoring drive to lift Kansas City to victory.

The Play: Chiefs +1.5

Final Prediction

Chiefs 23 Eagles 20

Props to Think About

For what it’s worth I like the Under in this game as well. I probably won’t bet it, but this total is sitting all the way up at 51 and I expect this game to be played tight especially early on. The Eagles also run a lot which lends to the under.

• Isiah Pacheco Any Time Touchdown (+120)
• Isiah Pacheco At Least 12 Carries (-106)
• Boston Scott Any Time Touchdown (+450)
• Over 3.5 Field Goals (+130)
• Kansas City Longest Punt Over 56.5 (+100)
• Patrick Mahomes Any Time Touchdown (+400)

Only three games remain in the NFL season and it looks like we’re primed for two really good ones this weekend. After a rough wild card showing we bounced back last week with a 3-1 record all ATS. Let’s see what we can do this weekend.

NFC Championship

49ers vs. Eagles (-2.5) (46.5)

If you know me and you’ve been reading my picks this year, then I think you know where I’m going with this one. Everyone seems to be really high on the Eagles right now and for good reason. They just dominated the Giants and when healthy they’ve easily been the best team in the NFL. They haven’t run up on a defense like the one they’re going to face this weekend though. The Eagles offensive line is probably their biggest strength and it’ll be put to the test on Sunday. The 49ers are going to have to generate pressure on Jalen Hurts. Just ask the Giants. If you give him time to sit back and throw he’s going to do some damage and the 49ers secondary has been shaky as of late. I do think if there’s a unit that can disrupt the Eagles seemingly impenetrable pass protection it’s the 49ers defensive line. For Brock Purdy and the offense it’s going to be another game of protecting the football and not making mistakes. The Eagles boast the leagues best passing defense so look for a heavy dose of Christian McCaffrey and Elijah Mitchell. They also have guys where if you just get them the ball they can make a play (Deebo, Aiyuk, Kittle), so I’d expect a lot of short throws and check downs to let those guys do their thing. I truly think San Francisco can win this game. You’ve heard it all week that a rookie QB has never made it to the Super Bowl as a starter, but that was before we knew about Brocktober. That has to change at some point right? Why not now? We ride into battle with the Niners on Sunday.

The Play: 49ers +2.5

AFC Championship

Bengals vs. Chiefs (-1) (47.5)

This line has swung like crazy over the last week. It opened with the Chiefs favored by 1.5. The next day it moved to favor the Bengals, who we’re all the way up at -2.5, before the line moved back to Kansas City -1 on Thursday. This has to be attributed to the uncertainty around Patrick Mahomes health. I have no doubts he plays in this game, but can he be as effective as he usually is with his legs? I’m not sure about that. While he can still stand in the pocket and carve up a defense, what makes him the most special is how he’s able to move in the pocket and extend plays. If he’s unable to do that the Chiefs will have trouble keeping pace with the Bengals offense. The Chiefs defense has also struggled at times this year and after seeing what the Bengals did to the Bills last week I expect more of the same. For the Bengals to win their defense is going to have to come up with stops in big spots. Sam Hubbard and Trey Hendrickson will need to put the pressure on a hobbled Mahomes in order for that to happen. They’ll also need to have a better game plan than the Jaguars did for Travis Kelce. Make one of the other receivers beat you. There’s no Tyreek Hill anymore and Mahomes has had to rely on Kelce more than ever. It’s easier said than done, but chipping him off the line or just putting a body on him can make a difference. The Jags never seemed to be in the same area code as him on half his catches and he burned them because of it. I think the Bengals have what it takes to get it done again in KC this year. They’ve been playing incredible football for the last couple months and despite still being really good this doesn’t feel like the powerhouse Chiefs teams of the last couple years. They still do have Patrick Mahomes, but the Bengals have Joe Burrow and he’s on Mahomes level now. Bengals punch their second straight ticket to the Super Bowl on Sunday.

The Play: Bengals +1

What a great round this is shaping up to be. All these games should be hotly contested. Let’s hope we do a bit better on the gambling side of things this time around. Last weekend we went 2-4 overall (2-3 ATS, 0-1 Totals) mostly thanks to the Chargers blowing a 27 point lead, and the Bengals/Ravens hitting the over by 1/2 a point. No time for excuses though time to buckle down and carve out a 4-0 weekend.

Jaguars vs. Chiefs (-8.5) (53)

We start the divisional round with the biggest spread of the weekend. Last time we saw the Chiefs they ran the Raiders out of their own building in Week 18. The Jaguars on the other hand made a furious comeback to erase a 27 point deficit despite 5 first half turnovers. When I look at this game I see a team in Kansas City that undoubtedly should win, but is 8.5 too much? The Chiefs finished the season 6-10-1 ATS this season. I know I used the same logic in their Week 18 game in Las Vegas that they weren’t covering due to inflated lines, and they stuffed me in a locker and won 31-13. The difference here is the Jaguars are a better team than the Raiders and this is essentially the same line (although this game is in KC). The Chiefs defense has been a problem for them this season, and I think that allows Jacksonville to hang around. The Jags need to finish drives in order to keep pace with the Chiefs who give up TDs on 67% of opponents redzone trips. We saw what not finishing opportunities can do last week with the Chargers leaving points on the board that allowed the Jaguars to get back into the game. I’m trusting Doug Pederson to be crafty with his offense on Saturday, and I think we get the Trevor Lawrence from the second half last week. If that’s the case I don’t see why the Jaguars can’t keep this to a touchdown.

The Play: Jaguars +8.5

Giants vs. Eagles (-7.5) (48)

This game basically comes down to how you feel about the Eagles health. I’m not sold on the fact that Jalen Hurts is 100% despite the fact that he’s off the injury report. I’m guessing Lane Johnson is going to play, but how is he going to look? Can Kayvon Thibodeaux take advantage? They also could be without cornerback Avonte Maddox as well. Then you have to wonder do I trust the Giants to take advantage? After last weeks performance I think I do. The Eagles defense has been very good this year so I don’t expect a ton of points from the Giants, but I think they’re good enough to stay competitive. I also have faith that Brian Daboll will have a different look for this game than he did last time these teams faced off with both teams starters playing (Eagles won 48-22). I do think Philly finds a way to win a close game. Divisional games in the playoffs tend to be played a little tighter as well. Look no further than last week with Bills/Dolphins and Bengals/Ravens. Both Underdogs covered and even had chances to win the game. With the line where it’s at just over a touchdown I like the Giants to cover. I think the leeway they’re giving you with that 1/2 point is too valuable to pass up.

The Play: Giants +7.5

Bengals vs. Bills (-5) (48.5)

Both these teams failed to cover last week despite facing backup QBs. Now this week they’ll each have to deal with each others equally scary QBs. Both guys have shown they can deliver in big moments and that’s what makes this game so highly anticipated. I love what both teams bring offensively and I don’t think either offense will have a problem scoring. The thing that is going to decide this game is which defense can get a stop when it matters? The Bills defense with Von Miller is a different animal, but without him they’ve taken a step back. While Greg Rousseau has been good in his second year at DE it still doesn’t make up for Millers absence. With all the Bengals injuries on the offensive line this is an area the Bills need to take advantage of, but without Miller I think Joe Burrow will have a clean enough pocket to do some damage on Sunday. The Bills offense feels like they have fallen into this mode lately where it seems like every play they’re throwing the ball deep. With them being a bit more one dimensional in that regard the Bengals are going to have to limit big plays down the field to guys like Diggs and Davis. If they can do that and force Buffalo to adjust their game plan they might be able to come up with enough key stops to win the game. I think with the spread up at 5 it gives enough wiggle room for the Bengals to slip up and lose, but still cover. This should be the best game of the weekend. I think it’s decided by a field goal. Either way the Bengals cover.

The Play: Bengals +5

Cowboys vs. 49ers (-3.5) (46)

The Cowboys looked impressive on Monday Night, and if they can jump on the Niners early like they did to the Bucs it could be a problem for San Francisco. You have to remember though. Tampa Bay is awful. I know I took them last week, but I was blinded by Tom Brady. Any other name there at QB and I would’ve went with Dallas. The 49ers started slow, but turned it on in the second half. I just think they’re defense is too good to look past right now. They will frustrate Dak, and I know he didn’t throw a pick last week, but I’m predicting multiple takeaways for the 49ers defense on Sunday. For San Francisco offensively all Brock Purdy has to do is take care of the football and let his playmakers do the rest. If he’s smart with the ball I can’t see the Cowboys being able to get any momentum going. With the line at 3.5 you’re going to have to sweat this one for awhile because Dallas will hang around early. I hate taking favorites at 3.5 because so many close games are won by a field goal, but I love the Niners in this one. Even if the game is close down the stretch Brett Mahar has completely forgot how to kick extra points apparently so who knows what could happen. One miss could change everything, but I don’t even think we get to that point. San Francisco controls the ball early and the Cowboys cripple themselves with second half turnovers. It’s fucking Brocktober baby, and it’s just getting started.

The Play: 49ers -3.5