It’s finally time for the first full slate of Sunday games for the year and I couldn’t be more ecstatic. Like I mentioned in Thursday’s post I’m going to adjusting the format slightly this year. Instead of picking one favorite, underdog, over, under, and lock I’m just going to be giving my best bet’s for the week whatever they may be. Week 1 is always tricky to forecast so I have my work cut out for me here, but let’s get into it.

Patriots (+4) vs. Eagles

How could we not start off with one of Charlie Murphy’s Habitual Line Steppers of the Week? As crazy as it sounds this feels like a Week 1 trap game for the Eagles. They are coming off and incredible season that saw them fall just short in the Super Bowl and the Patriots missed the playoffs going 8-9 last season. For some reason though I think the Pats are going to be feisty in this one. An improved offense in terms of weapons and a new OC should work wonders for Mac Jones. Yes, the offensive line is going to be an issue, but they weren’t full healthy this preseason so I expect them to look at least marginally better as a unit. I think a little Super Bowl hangover is also in the cards for the Eagles as well. On a day where the Patriots honor Tom Brady they get back to doing what they did for 20 years with him under center. Win.

Commanders (-7) vs. Cardinals

The Cardinals come into this season in one of the more obvious “tank modes” in recent history. With Caleb Williams primed to be the number one overall pick and the team seemingly out on Kyler Murray at this point it all adds up. Sometimes teams in this spot come out and surprise their opponents in Week 1. I think back to the Jaguars beating the Colts in Week 1 a couple years ago only to finish the season 1-15. I just don’t see that happening here and I think this line is a bit too low especially with Josh Dobbs at QB. After a couple games I think we’ll start to see Cardinals lines starting to sit closer to 10. The Commanders are going to be a tough out this year too. Maybe not a playoff team per say, but competitive. They have to have this game if they think they’re going to make a run at the playoffs and they should play like it. There’s no reason they can’t win by more than a score here.

Buccaneers (+5.5) vs. Vikings

This is easily the grossest bet I’m going to make this week, but I like it for some reason. The Vikings won a ton of one score games last year and the Bucs still have the remnants of a decent roster. Baker Mayfield tends to pull shit out of his ass from time to time as well. This Bucs team kind of reminds me of the Sam Darnold Panthers from a couple years ago. They started out hot at 3-0 and then regressed back to what we thought they were. I think Tampa could get hot early in a bad division and then come back down to earth. This feels like a close game regardless. Someone wins by a field goal. Bucs cover.

Texans (+10) vs. Ravens

I could be completely out of bounds on this one, but it just feels like Lamar Jackson’s teams have tended to play inferior teams closely time after time. The Texans with a new head coach and their new franchise QB should be motivated to come out and play a competitive game on Sunday. I think DeMeco Ryans will have some tricks up his sleeve on how to handle Lamar as well. Texans will keep it close and the Ravens will pull it out late, but by less than 10. Texans cover.