It’s finally time for the first full slate of Sunday games for the year and I couldn’t be more ecstatic. Like I mentioned in Thursday’s post I’m going to adjusting the format slightly this year. Instead of picking one favorite, underdog, over, under, and lock I’m just going to be giving my best bet’s for the week whatever they may be. Week 1 is always tricky to forecast so I have my work cut out for me here, but let’s get into it.

Patriots (+4) vs. Eagles

How could we not start off with one of Charlie Murphy’s Habitual Line Steppers of the Week? As crazy as it sounds this feels like a Week 1 trap game for the Eagles. They are coming off and incredible season that saw them fall just short in the Super Bowl and the Patriots missed the playoffs going 8-9 last season. For some reason though I think the Pats are going to be feisty in this one. An improved offense in terms of weapons and a new OC should work wonders for Mac Jones. Yes, the offensive line is going to be an issue, but they weren’t full healthy this preseason so I expect them to look at least marginally better as a unit. I think a little Super Bowl hangover is also in the cards for the Eagles as well. On a day where the Patriots honor Tom Brady they get back to doing what they did for 20 years with him under center. Win.

Commanders (-7) vs. Cardinals

The Cardinals come into this season in one of the more obvious “tank modes” in recent history. With Caleb Williams primed to be the number one overall pick and the team seemingly out on Kyler Murray at this point it all adds up. Sometimes teams in this spot come out and surprise their opponents in Week 1. I think back to the Jaguars beating the Colts in Week 1 a couple years ago only to finish the season 1-15. I just don’t see that happening here and I think this line is a bit too low especially with Josh Dobbs at QB. After a couple games I think we’ll start to see Cardinals lines starting to sit closer to 10. The Commanders are going to be a tough out this year too. Maybe not a playoff team per say, but competitive. They have to have this game if they think they’re going to make a run at the playoffs and they should play like it. There’s no reason they can’t win by more than a score here.

Buccaneers (+5.5) vs. Vikings

This is easily the grossest bet I’m going to make this week, but I like it for some reason. The Vikings won a ton of one score games last year and the Bucs still have the remnants of a decent roster. Baker Mayfield tends to pull shit out of his ass from time to time as well. This Bucs team kind of reminds me of the Sam Darnold Panthers from a couple years ago. They started out hot at 3-0 and then regressed back to what we thought they were. I think Tampa could get hot early in a bad division and then come back down to earth. This feels like a close game regardless. Someone wins by a field goal. Bucs cover.

Texans (+10) vs. Ravens

I could be completely out of bounds on this one, but it just feels like Lamar Jackson’s teams have tended to play inferior teams closely time after time. The Texans with a new head coach and their new franchise QB should be motivated to come out and play a competitive game on Sunday. I think DeMeco Ryans will have some tricks up his sleeve on how to handle Lamar as well. Texans will keep it close and the Ravens will pull it out late, but by less than 10. Texans cover.

It’s finally time to kick off the 2023-24 NFL season and you know what that means? Time to start (hopefully) giving out some winners. I am changing the format up a little bit for this season too. For standalone games I will only be giving out one pick whether that’s against the spread or a total. For Sundays I will be picking somewhere between three and five games most weeks aka my “best bets” for the weekend. I won’t be doing one of each like in the past, but don’t worry there will still be plenty of Charlie Murphy’s Habitual Line Steppers on the board.

So, now that’s out of the way let’s get into the season opener.

Lions vs. Chiefs (-4.5) (52.5)

This line has swung two points in the last day or two with news of Travis Kelce’s injury, and potential to miss this game, as well as Chris Jones’ contract situation keeping him out of this one. With the Chiefs second and third best players out or potentially out for the game it makes the Lions all the more enticing. Detroit (along with the Jets) have been the talk of the offseason as teams ready to take that leap into the playoff picture. Well what a test the Lions get in Week 1 with the defending Super Bowl Champs. I do like what they were able to do in the draft adding to their offense with Jahmyr Gibbs and Sam LaPorta to go along with an already strong receiving corps. I also love Dan Campbell and his ability to motivate, but we are talking about going up against Patrick Mahomes here. Like I said, the Chiefs second and third best players are likely out for this one, but their best player (and the best player in the league) will still be on the field tonight. Had Kelce and Jones been playing, and the line was still at -6.5, I think I still would have went Chiefs. Now with it down at -4.5 even with some of their best players out I still like Kansas City tonight. I have a feeling a lot of casual bettors (which I am one of) are going to be heavily on the Lions tonight, and who can blame them? It’s the more fun bet for sure, but we’re trying to make money here. As much as I’d love to root for the Lions tonight I have to go with my gut on this one.

The Play: Chiefs -4.5

Kansas City Chiefs (14-3) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (14-3)

Spread: Eagles (-1.5) Total: (51)

One more NFL gambling blog for the season and it’s the most important pick of the year. Super Bowl 57 is finally here and what a game it should be. There are a lot of factors at play that make this game difficult to handicap. Let’s get into my pick for the spread and I’ll even throw out some props that I like at the end.

The Eagles have been the public betting favorite since the first lines went up after the AFC Championship game. They actually opened as 2 point underdogs, and so much money came in on them it flipped the line by the morning which has now settled at 1.5. This just feels eerily similar to the Bengals game for the Chiefs though. A hotshot team with a young QB, coming off a dominant win over a very good opponent gets all the love from the public. I don’t think I can make the same mistake again. Sure, the Chiefs have been horrendous ATS this year (7-11-1), but that’s mostly been due to them being favored by a large margin and not covering in a win. I understand the Chiefs are banged up too, but I still don’t see why we should be giving Patrick Mahomes any points in any game. As an underdog he is 7-1-1 ATS and 6-3 SU in 9 starts. Every time I think of a reason why the Eagles could win the game in my head my counterpoint is always “Patrick Mahomes.”

As for the rest of the game it’s tough to ignore the Eagles talent across the board. There’s no denying the names they have, but are we just going to forget the fact that the Chiefs defense only gave up 20 points to the Bengals two weeks ago? I mean just matching up offenses the Bengals are better at QB, RB, and WR. TE is a slight lean towards Philly and the offensive line is a runaway by the Eagles. I think people are underestimating what the Kansas City defense can do. When you look at the Chiefs too, especially on offense, they have guys that have been there before in big games and that experience could make a difference late in the game. It goes without saying, but the Chiefs also have the advantage at head coach as well. I don’t want to look back on this game and think to myself “why did I bet against Mahomes getting points?” Like I said earlier I’m not making that mistake again. I see Mahomes leading a late scoring drive to lift Kansas City to victory.

The Play: Chiefs +1.5

Final Prediction

Chiefs 23 Eagles 20

Props to Think About

For what it’s worth I like the Under in this game as well. I probably won’t bet it, but this total is sitting all the way up at 51 and I expect this game to be played tight especially early on. The Eagles also run a lot which lends to the under.

• Isiah Pacheco Any Time Touchdown (+120)
• Isiah Pacheco At Least 12 Carries (-106)
• Boston Scott Any Time Touchdown (+450)
• Over 3.5 Field Goals (+130)
• Kansas City Longest Punt Over 56.5 (+100)
• Patrick Mahomes Any Time Touchdown (+400)

Only three games remain in the NFL season and it looks like we’re primed for two really good ones this weekend. After a rough wild card showing we bounced back last week with a 3-1 record all ATS. Let’s see what we can do this weekend.

NFC Championship

49ers vs. Eagles (-2.5) (46.5)

If you know me and you’ve been reading my picks this year, then I think you know where I’m going with this one. Everyone seems to be really high on the Eagles right now and for good reason. They just dominated the Giants and when healthy they’ve easily been the best team in the NFL. They haven’t run up on a defense like the one they’re going to face this weekend though. The Eagles offensive line is probably their biggest strength and it’ll be put to the test on Sunday. The 49ers are going to have to generate pressure on Jalen Hurts. Just ask the Giants. If you give him time to sit back and throw he’s going to do some damage and the 49ers secondary has been shaky as of late. I do think if there’s a unit that can disrupt the Eagles seemingly impenetrable pass protection it’s the 49ers defensive line. For Brock Purdy and the offense it’s going to be another game of protecting the football and not making mistakes. The Eagles boast the leagues best passing defense so look for a heavy dose of Christian McCaffrey and Elijah Mitchell. They also have guys where if you just get them the ball they can make a play (Deebo, Aiyuk, Kittle), so I’d expect a lot of short throws and check downs to let those guys do their thing. I truly think San Francisco can win this game. You’ve heard it all week that a rookie QB has never made it to the Super Bowl as a starter, but that was before we knew about Brocktober. That has to change at some point right? Why not now? We ride into battle with the Niners on Sunday.

The Play: 49ers +2.5

AFC Championship

Bengals vs. Chiefs (-1) (47.5)

This line has swung like crazy over the last week. It opened with the Chiefs favored by 1.5. The next day it moved to favor the Bengals, who we’re all the way up at -2.5, before the line moved back to Kansas City -1 on Thursday. This has to be attributed to the uncertainty around Patrick Mahomes health. I have no doubts he plays in this game, but can he be as effective as he usually is with his legs? I’m not sure about that. While he can still stand in the pocket and carve up a defense, what makes him the most special is how he’s able to move in the pocket and extend plays. If he’s unable to do that the Chiefs will have trouble keeping pace with the Bengals offense. The Chiefs defense has also struggled at times this year and after seeing what the Bengals did to the Bills last week I expect more of the same. For the Bengals to win their defense is going to have to come up with stops in big spots. Sam Hubbard and Trey Hendrickson will need to put the pressure on a hobbled Mahomes in order for that to happen. They’ll also need to have a better game plan than the Jaguars did for Travis Kelce. Make one of the other receivers beat you. There’s no Tyreek Hill anymore and Mahomes has had to rely on Kelce more than ever. It’s easier said than done, but chipping him off the line or just putting a body on him can make a difference. The Jags never seemed to be in the same area code as him on half his catches and he burned them because of it. I think the Bengals have what it takes to get it done again in KC this year. They’ve been playing incredible football for the last couple months and despite still being really good this doesn’t feel like the powerhouse Chiefs teams of the last couple years. They still do have Patrick Mahomes, but the Bengals have Joe Burrow and he’s on Mahomes level now. Bengals punch their second straight ticket to the Super Bowl on Sunday.

The Play: Bengals +1