1. Carolina Panthers- Bryce Young (QB) Alabama
This is all but a guarantee at this point. Will Levis’ odds shot up today, but from everything I’ve seen Young will be a Panther. This gives Frank Reich his franchise QB to start his rebuild. Despite his frame Young is a polished passer who can make things happen with his legs as well. He should excel at the next level
2. Houston Texans- Will Anderson Jr. (OLB) Alabama
Here’s where things get interesting. In the months leading up to the draft all signs pointed to the Texans taking whoever was left between Young and CJ Stroud. In the last week or so, that sentiment has changed and it appears Demeco Ryans may be willing to punt on a QB this year and build the defense first. Anderson has been earmarked for the top of this draft class for two years now. He could be a generational talent that fits well in Ryans’ Edge rush dependent system. Tyree Wilson could get a look here as well, but I think Houston lands on Anderson.
3. Arizona Cardinals- Tyree Wilson (Edge) Texas Tech
I’m doing a no trade mock here because incorporating trades is too much of a hassle. Truthfully, Arizona probably moves this pick on draft night to either Indy or Tennessee who would be attempting to jump each other for a QB. If they do stand pat here they have an immediate need on the Edge after JJ Watt’s retirement and Zach Allen’s free agency departure. Wilson is a monster with a high ceiling and can be an every down player at defensive end.
4. Indianapolis Colts- C.J Stroud (QB) Ohio State
The Colts have been heavily linked to Will Levis, but if Stroud makes it to them at 4 I don’t see how they pass it up. Easily my favorite prospect from this draft class (fine you caught me I’m an OSU fan) Stroud is an accurate and efficient passer who’s ready to step into an NFL offense right away. Seeing him go to the Colts would hurt (because I hate them), but this would be an ideal scenario for Indy.
5. Seattle Seahawks- Jalen Carter (DT) Georgia
Carter is the consensus number one prospect in this class and I don’t see how Seattle passes on a chance to improve their young core. Even with some tempting QB’s on the board the Seahawks still have Geno Smith under contract this year and can address QB later in the draft. Carter is a complete game wrecker and should play an immediate role in Seattle.
6. Detroit Lions- Devon Witherspoon (CB) Illinois
The Lions desperately need help in the secondary and Witherspoon can step right in and be a day one starter. A big physical corner, the Illinois product can slot right into the starting role after the Lions moved on from former number three overall pick Jeff Okudah this offseason.
7. Las Vegas Raiders- Peter Skoronski (OT/OG) Northwestern
Vegas needs a ton of help up front and Skoronski provides a versatile option that can play Tackle or Guard. He could slide in at Right Tackle for the Raiders and give them some stability on the offensive line which they were lacking last season.
8. Atlanta Falcons- Christian Gonzalez (CB) Oregon
Gonzalez is a shifty, dynamic corner that would work well across from AJ Terrell. The Atlanta defense finished 25th in the league in yards per attempt last season so this would be money well spent on a player with this type of athleticism and upside.
9. Chicago Bears- Paris Johnson Jr. (OT) Ohio State
The team that formerly held the first pick is still in a great spot here. They addressed WR by nabbing DJ Moore from the Panthers as part of the package for the number one pick. Now they have two choices in my opinion: Take your highest graded Tackle or Edge that’s left on the board. If I was Ryan Poles I’d be doing everything I could to protect Justin Fields and that would be securing his blindside. Johnson is an absolute beast who has a combo of power and quickness that not many people his size do. He’d make an instant impact in Chicago.
10. Philadelphia Eagles- Lukas Van Ness (Edge) Iowa
I thought for a minute about Bijan Robinson here as a luxury pick for the Eagles, but that doesn’t fit Howie Roseman’s M.O. He’s going to continue to build from the inside out like he has in the past. With Fletcher Cox potentially out the door after next season Van Ness would be a perfect replacement.
11. Tennessee Titans- Will Levis (QB) Kentucky
This pick could be happening up the board a bit come Thursday, but I think Tennessee walks out of Kansas City Day 1 with a QB. Levis has a big arm and has been playing a pro style offense already. I’m high on him and think he can be a productive NFL starter.
12. Houston Texans- Anthony Richardson (QB) Florida
How about this? I have my doubts that Richardson will be available at 12, but what a potential move for Houston. Snag the best Edge rusher at #2 and then the QB who’s athleticism and potential experts have been fawning after for months. To be honest they’d probably have to move up to get him because if he falls this far, I can imagine teams like Tampa and Minnesota making calls to move up.
13. Green Bay Packers- Dalton Kincaid (TE) Utah
This has to be a pass catcher of some sort right? What a slap in the face this would be to Aaron Rodgers on his way out too. The Packers haven’t selected a WR/TE in the first round since 2002, but they need to find Jordan Love a security blanket and a Tight End that runs routes well and has good hands would be a perfect match.
14. New England Patriots- Broderick Jones (OT) Georgia
I know taking a Georgia OT is giving Pats fans (myself included) PTSD to the failed experiment that was Isaiah Wynn. It’s no secret that New England needs help on the line, and even though they picked up a couple vets in free agency they still need to find that franchise Tackle. Mac Jones got his ass beat last year and if they want to really see what he can do they need to protect him first. He also ran the fastest 40 out of any Tackle at the combine so the big fella can move too.
15. New York Jets- Darnell Wright (OT) Tennessee
The Jets like the Patriots need help along the offensive line and especially now more than ever if they’re going to keep Aaron Rodgers happy. They have constructed a pretty well balanced roster so now they can focus on their most glaring hole which is the offensive line.
16. Washington Commanders- Joey Porter Jr. (CB) Penn State
With the top four OT’s off the board I have Washington pivoting to their other biggest need which is CB. Porter is lanky and physical and can succeed on an island. I don’t think they go QB here especially with four off the board already. They have other holes they need to plug.
17. Pittsburgh Steelers- Nolan Smith (OLB) Georgia
I could see Pittsburgh wanting a Tackle here, but with the board playing out the way it has I think they opt for help on the other side of the ball. Smith would pair perfectly across from TJ Watt in what could be one of the best pass rush duos in a couple years.
18. Detroit Lions- Calijah Kancey (DT) Pittsburgh
We’ve already addressed the secondary with the Lions first pick. Now it’s time to get them some help along the interior of the defensive line. Kancey has shown prowess both as a run stopper and a pass rusher the former of which the Lions desperately need help with. Pairing him on the line with 2022 picks Aidan Hutchinson and James Houston could go a long way in solidifying the Lions defense.
19. Tampa Bay Bucaneers- Myles Murphy (DE) Clemson
I don’t think Tampa will be enticed enough by Hendon Hooker to take him here. If they want a QB I think they move up to get one. If they stay at 19 I think Edge rusher makes the most sense. They need to get younger on the defensive side of the ball and adding an impact player in the first round would be a big first step.
20. Seattle Seahawks- Hendon Hooker (QB) Tennessee
Speaking of Hooker I like Seattle as a landing spot for him. They were able to add arguably the best player in the draft at number five and they are able to get the fifth year option on a QB as well. From everything I’ve seen people would be surprised if he makes it out of the first round. Seattle already has Geno Smith for next year so there is no rush on Hooker either and even though he’s old enough to rent a car he possess a ton of athleticism to warrant taking a chance on him here.
21. Los Angeles Chargers- Bijan Robinson (RB) Texas
One of the highest graded players in the class slips down purely based off positional value. Robinson would be an instant factor in LA as a replacement for Austin Eckler. I think this is as far as he falls and don’t be surprised if someone takes him closer to the top 10. He will be a heavy favorite for rookie of the year as well.
22. Baltimore Ravens- Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR) Ohio State
I don’t anticipate it taking this long for a WR to come off the board, but that’s the no trade mock for you. Smith-Njigba is my favorite pass catcher in this draft (shocker, I know) and it fills a need that Baltimore has been lacking since Lamar Jackson has been their starter. A possession receiver that runs routes well and can provide Jackson with another safe option outside of Mark Andrews.
23. Minnesota Vikings- Emmanuel Forbes (CB) Mississippi State
Minnesota could be in play for Hooker as well, but with him off the board they need to address their cornerback situation. Forbes is an instinctive defender with a nose for the ball. He had 14 interceptions in his time at Miss. State.
24. Jacksonville Jaguars- Deonte Banks (CB) Maryland
The Jags are in a good spot here. They have a well rounded roster with no glaring needs. They could however use some help in the secondary, and Banks has been soaring up draft boards the last month or so.
25. New York Giants- Zay Flowers (WR) Boston College
This has to be a WR right? I’m not sure that Flowers will fall to them at 25, but if he does they should be thrilled. Some have Flowers as their top pass catcher in this class and he could come in and be Daniel Jones’ top target on day one. Even if Flowers isn’t available you’d have to think Jordan Addison or Quentin Johnston will be there when they make their selection.
26. Dallas Cowboys- Will McDonald IV (Edge) Iowa State
I was tempted by either a TE or WR here, but ultimately landed on an edge rusher. The offense is still formidable with Lamb and Pollard, but the defense could use some insurance in case Demarcus Lawrence is on his way out the door.
27. Buffalo Bills- Jordan Addison (WR) USC
Buffalo has been rumored to trade back and I think that’s where they’ll address the departure of Tremaine Edmunds. If they do stay at 27 why not use it on WR? Gabe Davis is entering a contract year and Addison could step right into the number two role opposite Stefon Diggs.
28. Cincinnati Bengals- Michael Mayer (TE) Notre Dame
With five CBs off the board at this point I like the Bengals to look elsewhere with their first pick. With Mayer falling down to the back half of the first round this feels like a no brainer. Cincinnati needs help at TE and Mayer is the best two way player at the position in this draft.
29. New Orleans Saints- Bryan Bresee (DT) Clemson
There’s no question Saints need help up front. They’re thin along the defensive line and Bresee would be a day one starter in New Orleans.
30. Philadelphia Eagles- Brian Branch (S) Alabama
I think the Eagles will continue to focus on defense here with their second day one pick. Branch is versatile and can move around in the secondary which could be valuable for Philly.
31. Kansas City Chiefs- Jahmyr Gibbs (RB) Alabama
The champs pieced together a backfield last year during their title run and now can look to add a steady presence behind Patrick Mahomes. Gibbs’ game has drawn comparisons to Alvin Kamara and Tony Pollard. He could be scary in that Chiefs offense.
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