Alright before I start my weekly sermon about Washington’s lord and savior Jayden Daniels I gotta address the elephant in the room, which is that the TD Triducken has been an absolute dud. With no wins on the season I suppose I have only myself to blame for my failures but much like Aaron Rodgers I’m certainly not doing that. So instead the Triducken goes on the commissioner’s exempt list with the cocaine wolverine. Now don’t worry unlike Peppers it’ll be back this season and in its stead I got something fun cooked up. My complaints about the TD parlay aside, we did get a couple wins last week as the Over and the Lock came through so it wasn’t all bad. Maybe it’s just because I’m all fired up for the Battle of the Beltway but I like this Week 6 slate a lot. I think some potential easy wins that will help get Bick’s Picks back over .500 so let’s get into it.

Life’s Too Short to Bet the Under

Commanders @ Ravens (51.5)

Come on you knew this game would be featured so why not get it out of the way early? Now I’ll be the first to admit I typically avoid anything over 50 but if there’s any teams that can cover that high a total it’s these two. If you’ve been following all season you’d know that I’ve made a habit of featuring both these teams and it’s paid off as both are 4-1 against the Over. There’s obviously a good reason these teams are hitting their Overs as both feature the hottest offenses to start the season. As a Washington fan it’s surreal that I can actually say they are the highest scoring team in football but it feels good I tell you what. Now unlike last week I don’t expect Jayden Daniels to cover this total on his own unfortunately I’m anticipating that he’ll be trying to keep pace with Baltimore all afternoon. It needs to be mentioned that Lamar is 21-1 against the NFC and even when Lamar is fumbling the snap he’s somehow throwing touchdowns. Oh and when you’re not worrying about Lamar you might just get run over by Tractorcito. On top of what these teams can do offensively on the flip side neither has been that dominant on defense with both being susceptible to the big play. So whether it’s JD5 or LJ8 that comes out on top we should see plenty of points today and maybe just maybe an upset win for Washington.

Over 51.5 (-110)

Fade Dawgs

Chargers @ Broncos(+3)

There were a handful of dawgs that I liked this weekend but none of them barked as loud as the Bo and the Broncos. Maybe it’s just those Orange Crush throwbacks but I gotta tell you I’m ready to believe in this Denver win streak. Sure you can definitely be critical of what they can do on offense but their defense led by All Pro corner Patrick Surtain is no joke. Their lockdown secondary paired with a relentless pass rush that leads the league in qb pressures should be trouble for Herbert all afternoon. As for the Chargers even though they’re coming off a bye they remain a really banged up team and frankly a rather unremarkable one. They seem limited by a lack of weapons and committed to run heavy game scripts. I think this plays right into Denver’s hands as long as they can avoid giving them any short fields. Honestly at the end of the day the cherry on top for me was that the Chargers haven’t won in Denver since 2018 and that alone makes me think Broncos Country keeps riding.

Broncos +3 (-115)

Maye Day Parlay

Drake Maye Over 166.5 Passing Yards, 25+ Rushing Yards, 1 Passing TD

Much like Jacoby Brissett, the TD Turducken has been sat down on the bench to think about what’s done. So why not celebrate these benchings by embracing the arrival of Drake the Snake. Now I’ll admit that because of the past failures of the Triducken parlay I did set the bar rather low for Maye’s debut but I’m hoping he gets us an easy win. To be honest these benchmarks are around what Jacoby was farting out every week so I’m thinking the kid blows by them. I won’t go as far as to say the Pats get a win but maybe Maye will give them something to believe in.

Maye Daye Parlay: Drake Maye Over 166.5 Passing Yards, 25+ Rushing Yards, 1 Passing TD (+248)

Bick’s Stone Cold Lock of the Century of the Week

Lions (-3.5) @ Cowboys

I will be up front in saying that this goes directly against something I said I wouldn’t do again after the NFC Championship last year and that’s bet on the Lions. Ben Johnson is dead to me and I’ll never be convinced that Jared Goof isn’t a tall glass of mid. But that was the past and in the present the Cowboys are kinda ass so I’m gonna bet against them. Dallas is a mess on defense because of injuries and frankly haven’t looked all that great without Dan Quinn calling plays. Obviously the Cowboys passing attack will move the ball but hopefully Detroit can slow down their one dimensional offense and force the timely turnovers Dak loves to give up so often. Inevitably we’ll sweat this one out but in the end I think we’ll be having knee caps for dinner.

Lions -3.5 (-102)

I don’t know about the rest of you but it’s really starting to feel like fall. The leaves are changing colors, there’s a chill in the air and the NFL is once again subjecting us to London games. On top of our first game across the pond it’s our first bye week so we’ll have even less games to choose from than usual. Here’s hoping with less choices we can make the right picks because I’ll admit things could be going better in that regard. Once again the football gods saddled us with another 1-3 week here at Bick’s Picks. The Over suffered its first loss of the season, Travis Kelce did everything but score a TD and I definitely should’ve listened to the sharps when it came to the fraudulent 3-0 Steelers. Now we did get one win last week but I’ve been told this is turning into too much of a Washington blog so I won’t peacock too much about the forty burger JD5 served to Kyler and company. That said, wake up people there’s football on and we got losses to chase so let’s get into it.

Life’s Too Short to Bet the Under

Browns @ Commanders (43.5)

Oops maybe people were right when they said this was a Washington blog. Oh well I just can’t help but talk about Jayden Daniels. There simply aren’t enough superlatives in the dictionary to describe how great he’s looked so far and as a result Washington’s offense is suddenly one of the best in football. They’ve scored 80 points on the road over the last two weeks with no signs of slowing down. On the other side, scoring has been difficult for Cleveland as they’ve yet to surpass 18 points in a game but even though I hate to say it I think they have a chance to do so against Washington’s defense. This is a game I expect JD5 and company to win but the offense will have to show up to do so. It obviously wasn’t hard for me to pick my guys to score points but what really put a bow on this pick for me was that Overs in Cleveland road games are 8-2 since the start of last season. So let’s keep the good times rolling and get the Over back in the win column.

Over 43.5 (-112)

Fade Dawgs

Dolphins @ Patriots(+1.5)

This isn’t simply a pick, it’s a call out. The Pats NEED this game. After a big Week 1 upset against the Bengals things have gotten progressively worse for New England and they’re starting to look like the talent deprived team many expected them to be. Jacoby Brissett is running for his life every play and the team is turning Antonio Gibson of all people for ball security because Rhamondre has turned into Stevan Ridley. On top of that one of the team’s own reporters said that the locker room is “teetering on mutiny”. Yikes. Obviously none of this is ideal and it’s no surprise that since that report the line moved from Pats -1 to +1.5. Now I promise I didn’t write this blog just to dump on the Patriots. I’ve actually convinced myself that they’ll win this rock fight in Foxboro. The reason is as bad as things might be for New England, they’ve somehow been worse for Miami. The Dolphins are the only team in football to that hasn’t led a game with time left on the clock and their offense is a complete shell of itself without Tua. The Fins are 1-6 all time without him and his current replacement Snoop Huntley looks like he’s throwing a medicine ball out there. I’ll admit this is probably a better Under bet than anything but call me crazy I think this team responds to all the noise and delays the arrival Maye Day just a little longer. Per usual I’ll probably take the points but the ML is there for those bold enough.

Patriots +1.5 (-112)

Patriots ML (+102)

Touchdown Triducken

Anytime TD Parlay: Amari Cooper, Derrick Henry, Kenneth Walker III

I am out of carrots. I am out of sticks. The TD Triducken has time and again proven itself to be an unpickable bet, and a poor decision. I recommend it be removed from its position and re-assigned to Thanksgiving where it belongs. Now some might say it’s my judgment that is at least very seriously flawed but we don’t quit here at Bick’s Picks so until someone kills my $200 plasma screen tv we’re gonna keep trying. First I’ll start with the obvious pick which is whatever number 1 WR is facing Washington. I’m gonna follow that up with what has been a sure thing TD in Tractorcito. And I’ll end it with Kenneth Skywalker diving into the end zone against the Giants. Here’s hoping we finally get the dub the Triducken desperately needs.

Anytime TD Triducken: Amari Cooper, Derrick Henry, Kenneth Walker III (+554)

Bick’s Stone Cold Lock of the Century of the Week

Packers (-3) @ Rams

Much like the Triducken the Lock has fallen on tough times. Yet another loss with only one win on the season. But don’t worry, we’re not alone as this has been one of the most brutal betting starts for the public in decades. The betting public are 22-38-2 against the spread to start the season which is the worst start through 4 weeks in 20 years. I suppose that’s why they say to fade the public but I’m a slow learner, that’s why I’m taking the cheese and I’ll be riding with the public again. I’ve been on record saying that I’m not the biggest Jordan Love fan but I can’t deny he can sling it. Green Bay’s pass happy offense should be a big problem for a Rams defense that ranks dead last or towards the bottom in most every defensive category. On the flip side the Rams offense has been decimated by injuries at WR and OL resulting in Stafford taking the second most sacks (14) in his career through 4 games. Needless to say McVay might be wishing he took that broadcasting gig and his protege LaFleur might get him a little closer to that. LaFleur is 4-0 vs McVay and I’ve no reason to think he won’t be 5-0 when the clock hits triple zeroes. Gimme the Pack in a rout. 

Packers -3 (-118)

We’re quickly a month into the season as Week 4 is upon us folks. Not gonna lie to you people spirits are high here at Bick’s Picks. We rebounded with a 3-1 week of picks getting our record back to .500 on the season. On top of our success here, Jayden Daniels’ performance on MNF was nothing short of spectacular and I don’t think I’ve stopped watching those throws he made to Terry. Feels really good to think we might have the answer at quarterback, now we just have to teach him to slide so he’s not flying around like a crash test dummy. But as much as I’ve enjoyed basking in the glory of a primetime win, it’s time to get some more wins so let’s get into it.

Life’s Too Short to Bet the Under

Bills @ Ravens (46.5)

The Over has remained undefeated and I’m looking at the nightcap and some familiar faces to keep it that way. As soon as I saw this number down to 46.5 I had to jump on it. Simply put the Bills look like the best team in football through the first 3 weeks. You probably missed it because you were all too busy watching Jayden Daniels but the Bills were also destroying the floundering Jaguars 47-10 on MNF. Despite supposedly having all his weapons walk out the door Josh Allen looks better than ever and defenses can’t keep him off the field or out of the end zone. Now that’s enough fluffing for Buffalo, I actually also really like the Ravens in this spot as well. Despite being 1-2 Baltimore is still obviously one of the best teams in the AFC. Lamar has certainly been able to put up points and their 2nd half struggles shouldn’t deter us. The Ravens really need this one and I think this is a primetime spot where both these teams put on a show. It’s hard for me to not see both these teams scoring at least 3 touchdowns each. No matter who comes out on top I think we’re in for a great ending to our football Sunday.

Over 46.5 (-110)

Fade Dawgs

Commanders (+3.5) @ Cardinals

I mean did you really think I wasn’t gonna talk Jayden Daniels some more? Cards on the table this is as homer a pick as they come but I’m not afraid to admit it. The NFC’s Offensive Player of the week is fresh off arguably the best performance we’ve ever seen from a rookie quarterback finishing 21-of-23 passing for 254 yards 2 TDs through the air and another of course on the ground. Not to mention Washington hasn’t punted since Week 1 scoring on every single possession, aside from kneel-downs. Not too bad for a college offense if you ask me. Now I will admit that the defense for Washington remains a problem and I’m predicting we’re gonna struggle to stop Kyler Murray all day. Hopefully we’ll get enough bend don’t break defense from Washington that’ll give JD5 a chance to respond. In a typical letdown spot for us I’m betting the good times keep rolling.

Commanders +3.5 (-115)

Touchdown Triducken

Anytime TD Parlay: Jalen Hurts, Marvin Harrison Jr, Travis Kelce

Yikes. The Triducken is 0 for 3 on the season and was 0 for last week as well. Needless to say things could be going better. The thought has crossed my mind to retire the Triducken till Turkey Day but I’m stubborn. Speaking of stubborn yes I did include Jalen Hurts again this week. The Eagles will be without their top wide receivers and with everyone expecting the Saquon show I’m looking to Hurts to sneak one in. Next is Marvin Harrison Jr which should be an obvious one. No matter how over the moon I am for Jayden Daniels that won’t stop our defense from leaving the opposition’s number 1 wide open. Evans, Nabers and Chase all found the end zone with ease so I expect no difference for Harrison until Washington’s defense can prove otherwise. Last leg of the Triducken will be Taylor Swift’s boyfriend. Not necessarily the best reason to pick him but I feel like he’s due. Watching the Chiefs I feel there has been an effort by Reid to draw up plays for him in the red zone and think one of them is successful today. Not to mention the Chargers will be missing Derwin James which should only help. Here’s hoping the quarterback, wide receiver, tight end combo finally helps a Triducken payoff.

Anytime TD Triducken: Jalen Hurts, Marvin Harrison Jr, Travis Kelce (+929)

Bick’s Stone Cold Lock of the Century of the Week

Steelers (-2.5) @ Colts

Everywhere I looked doing research for my picks everyone seems to have the Colts in this game. Sharps all love this as a letdown spot for the Steelers and the perfect time to fade Tomlin. The logic all tracks and there’s plenty of reason to be skeptical of a Justin Fields’ led offense but the reason I’m riding with the public on this one is I can’t trust Anthony Richardson. Unlike NFL Rookie of the Week Jayden Daniels, the Colts quarterback has been a turnover machine and I expect him to keep coughing up the ball against a defense that has been smothering so far. Now that smothering defense has been downplayed by others pointing to the quarterbacks they’ve faced early on but I just kept saying to myself how is Anthony Richardson any different? Sure he can throw it over a mountain but so could Jamarcus Russell. TJ Watt will be everywhere and the Ohio State Peanut will do enough to cover the spread and keep Russ on the bench.

Steelers -2.5 (-108)

Week 3 is often one of desperation where the 0-2 teams are desperately trying to right the ship as they feel the season slipping through their fingers. To be honest it’s no different here at Bicks’s Picks because I don’t know about the rest of you but we’ve been taking a bath here so far. Week 2 was full of upsets and we didn’t see any of them coming. We rode with the Rams and the Niners which was a complete disaster. Kyler and Darnold both took personal offense to my blog as both those chuckleheads not only covered their spreads they both outright won. Then there’s my TD Triducken which was dead on arrival as not a single QB featured found the end zone. Thankfully I’ve had some luck with the Over as it remains undefeated so far this season. Also I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention that the 1st place Washington Commanders were the only team in the NFC East to win last weekend. Sure I didn’t write about it but much like Pats fans week 1 this is probably our Super Bowl so believe me I enjoyed it. That’s enough about celebrating low bars we need some wins to get Bick’s Picks back over .500 so let’s get into. 

Life’s Too Short to Bet the Under

Ravens @ Cowboys (47.5)

So far at Bick’s Picks the only thing we’ve been able to rely on is the Over. Sure it hasn’t been pretty and we’ve sweat out some low scoring first halves but a win is a win. Speaking of “hasn’t been pretty” we’re gonna be turning to two of the biggest disappointments from Week 2 to get us a win. The Ravens and Cowboys both suffered upsets at home BUT they also both reached the total. For all the hype these teams may have neither has been able to stop the opposition when it mattered most with both being bottom of the league in points allowed. I think a combination of bad defense and desperation to win will quickly turn this game into a shootout. Here’s hoping we get scoring early and often so the Over can stay undefeated. 

Over 47.5 (-112)

Fade Dawgs

Eagles (+3) @ Saints

Hey this segment is called FADE Dawgs for a reason right… Well I certainly hope y’all faded my Rams pick because good lord. Forget +1 we would’ve needed +31 for that bet to even be a push. Of all the upsets that happened Week 2 we weren’t in on any of them which doesn’t feel great. Hey speaking of not feeling great, how bout this Week 3 slate huh? Not one matchup that I really scratch my head and wonder how a team isn’t favored. However this is the only matchup that comes close. The thing is I know why the Eagles aren’t favored. They showed us why they aren’t against Primetime Kirk on MNF. Also in case you missed it Kamara just scored again because the Saints are the most explosive offense in football so far. The key word being so far because I’m fading the recency bias. My big reason for jumping on this game is how much the line moved. Before Week 2’s outcomes the line for this game was -3 Eagles not +3 Eagles. That kind of line action is something I can’t ignore and honestly the only Saints fan I know suggested I hang em up after last week so you know what that means? Call me Richard because I’m being petty.   

Eagles +3 (-124)

Touchdown Triducken

Anytime TD Parlay: Jalen Hurts, Zay Flowers, Tyreek Hill

Whelp I have only myself to blame for last week. I knew the QB TD parlay was a risk but all three missing hurt. This week I’m back on my QB TD bullshit with Hurts but I think that’s a much safer bet than the 3 I chose last week. I chose Zay because he’s been absolutely peppered with targets the first two weeks and I don’t think that changes in a matchup where I expect lots of scoring. Last pick is a bit of a sketchy one simply because it’s really hard to trust someone named Skylar. My apprehensions about the Dolphins QB aside I think there will be an effort to get Hill involved and at +195 I couldn’t resist tossing him in the parlay.

Anytime TD Triducken: Jalen Hurts, Zay Flowers, Tyreek Hill (+1612)

Bick’s Stone Cold Lock of the Century of the Week

Ravens (-1) @ Cowboys

Your eyes don’t deceive you. I am making two picks from the same game. Sure some might say this against some unwritten rule but guess what I make the rules and I can’t stay away from this game. There’s just too many reasons to like the Ravens in this spot. Get the obvious out of the way, Lamar doesn’t lose to the NFC. He’s 20-1 straight up in his career against the NFC and on top of that he’s 22-7 as an underdog or favorite of three or fewer points. Not to mention the Super Bowl aspiring Ravens are 0-2 for the first time in a decade and I just can’t see them falling to 0-3. Now personally I have learned my lesson moving the line but man it’s tempting to sprinkle a little on -6.5 or heck even -13.5. You know why? Because fuck the Cowboys that’s why.

Ravens -1 (-112)

Wanna Get Nuts? LET’S GET NUTS: Ravens -6.5 (+208), Ravens -13.5 (+488)

Alright before I dive into excuses let me give credit where credit is due, tip of the hat to Jerod Mayo and the Pats. I honestly thought there was no chance they’d cover, let alone outright win. Sure the Gatorade bath at the end was excessive but starting off a new era 1-0 must feel real good. Personally, I wouldn’t know as the Dan Quinn era was the one that started with a wet fart. That new look Washington’s defense I yammered on about couldn’t stop a nose bleed, letting Baker throw for 4 TDs. JD5 at least looks like the Lamar 2.0 some expected him to be, as he showed off his dynamic ability to run the ball and his eerily similar inability to find wide receivers. Our TD Triducken was also a miss because Ceedee was the only Cowboy that didn’t wanna score against the Browns but hey at least the Over hit in that game so that’s something. That’s enough dwelling on last week though we got some money to make so let’s get into it.

Life’s Too Short to Bet the Under

Raiders @ Ravens (41)

Just like last week there’s several games hanging around at this 41 number and it worked last week so why not come back for more. Similar to last week this is a line that has dropped since it came out and 84% of the bets are on the Under, so you know what that means? Time to fade the public. Those reasons aside I expect this game to get to this total because the Ravens will blow doors. They’ve been stewing with that loss to the Chiefs on opening night and I’m expecting them to beat the bag out of the Raiders and run up the score. So here’s hoping the Ravens are wearing their white cleats and cover this Over all by themselves.

Over 41 (-112)

Fade Dawgs

Rams (+1) @ Cardinals

I gotta admit finding a Dawg this week that I loved was a little tricky. Several teams were considered but as expected with underdogs there were reasons to question each of those picks. In the end even though this is practically a pick ’em I kept coming back to this game because the Cardinals were the favored team I trusted the least. The Rams are banged up coming off a tough OT loss to the Lions, but despite the loss of Puka and a couple offensive lineman I still like them more than Arizona. The Cards defense is still stinky and the Kyler to Harrison connection looks like it’s gonna need some time to develop. Not to mention Kyler is 1-7 all time against the Rams so I’m gonna trust McVay and company to get it done.

Rams +1 (-115)

Touchdown Triducken

Anytime TD Parlay: Jayden Daniels, Lamar Jackson, Justin Fields

Our Triducken came up one leg short last week because of Ceedee which was definitely a disappointment. I went with what I thought were sure things but alas it wasn’t meant to be. This week I’m getting a little spicy and we’re going all QB rushing TDs chasing the big payout. Is that the best idea? Probably not. But they’re my picks so deal with it. The age of the running QB is here and I’m aiming to profit off it.

Anytime TD Triducken: Jayden Daniels, Lamar Jackson, Justin Fields (+1794)

Bick’s Stone Cold Lock of the Century of the Week

49ers (-4.5) @ Vikings

Alright I learned by lesson last week picking against the Pats I gotta try to keep the spite and bias out of my locks. With that being said I certainly have no love for Kyle Shanahan but I can’t deny that once again they look like the class of the NFC. They dominated the Jets without CMC and frankly I got no reason to believe anything different will happen to the Vikings. Sure Minnesota is 1-0 and Sam Darnold looked more competent than expected but it was against the Giants. Not to mention any career resurgence Sam Darnold could be having is being quickly credited to the time he spent in San Fran last season. So I’m thinking if anyone can quickly turn Darnold back into a pumpkin it’ll be the Niners. I almost wanna tease this up to -6.5 but after last week I’ll take the -4.5 for an easy win.

Niners -4.5 (-110)

I took the cheese and I paid for it. After a perfect 3-0 Thursday opener the Packers let me down on Friday losing to the Eagles in a slippery track meet of a game. I’ve only really got myself to blame but I’m also gonna give a special shout out to the terrible field conditions in Sao Paulo. No chance the NFL goes back to Brazil anytime soon if the injury Jordan Love sustained with 6 seconds left causes him to miss any significant time. But enough complaining we’ve got a loss to chase and here we are once again with an unpredictably close Week 1 slate staring back at us. If this year seems especially close, that’s because it is. For the first time since 2010 we’ve only got one game with a spread of 7 or more points. As a result I’m seeing all the supposed “experts” passing on games rather than making picks. That might fly over at The Ringer or Action Network, but not here at Bick’s Picks where no spread is too close, no total too high. As I’m a creature of habit you should all be familiar with our format of an Over, an Underdog, a TD Parlay and a Lock. Who knows maybe I’ll get spicy and shake things up down the line but Week 1 already looks tough enough to predict without changing up my picks so let’s get into it.

Life’s Too Short to Bet the Under

Cowboys @ Browns (41)

There’s a bunch of games opening at 41 but for some reason this one keeps calling my name especially since the line keeps dropping. Not entirely sure the reason but this has been the most popular Under bet for Week 1, and as a result the line moved from 44.5 at open to the 41 it is now. Not that I need an excuse to fade the public but my hands are tied in situations like this. These teams were a combined 22-14 for the O/U last season and as good as their defenses might be I’m expecting them both to give up big plays through the air as we cruise to an easy Over win.

Over 41 (-110)

Fade Dawgs

Commanders (+3.5) @ Buccaneers

C’mon, did you really think that Washington wouldn’t make an appearance in the Week 1 picks? And that’s right you’re reading correctly I’m not betting against them we’re betting on them. I’m all in on JD5 and the new regime. Sure, I have my second thoughts about Dan Quinn and the literal ghosts of 1st round QBs past (RIP Haskins) always haunt me but Dan Snyder is gone so anything is possible. In all seriousness I really do think this will be a team that could surprise some people this season and I think it starts Week 1. I’m obviously enamoured with the dual threat Jayden Daniels will be for this team but the real reason I like them in this spot is their revamped defense. New GM Adam Peters and Dan Quinn completely overhauled the roster with only 39% of the 2023 roster returning which is by the lowest percentage in the league. This was long overdue and new additions like Bobby Wagner, Frankie Luvu and Jeremy Chinn should help improve a painfully underperforming defense. The pass rush couldn’t have been worse last season being dead last in most categories but that should change under Quinn who’s known for being creative with drawing up ways to create pressure. Now so far I’ve admittedly been whistling past the Bucs in this write up because they just feel like they’re the same team last year. Not that it’s a terrible thing but I can’t ignore the feeling that they over performed and frankly got a little lucky last season. That said Mike Evans will get his (see the TD Triducken) but I think Washington can force Baker to make enough mistakes to make this a close game, maybe even pull off the upset. Mayfield after all is 14-26-1 all time against the spread as a favorite so let’s ride with JD5 in his Burgundy and Gold debut.

Commanders +3.5 (-108)

Touchdown Triducken

Anytime TD Parlay: Mike Evans, Ceedee Lamb, Josh Allen

Those new to Bick’s Picks might not be familiar with the term Triducken, but it’s our homage to the late great John Madden. It’s a touchdown inside a touchdown inside another touchdown, what’s not to like? Feel like I kept it simple and went for what I thought was sure things. Ceedee’s scored in 9 straight regular season games to end last season and he remains THE weapon in the Cowboys offense. Washington always seems to struggle to limit an opposing team’s biggest weapon so until I see them do otherwise I think Evans is a safe bet. My doppelgänger Josh Allen had 15 rushing TDs last season and this season the Bills are definitely looking for him to put the team on his back with Diggs out the door. Sure I‘m playing it safe but after the Commanders pick it’s probably not the worst idea.

Anytime TD Triducken: Mike Evans, Ceedee Lamb, Josh Allen (+869)

Bick’s Stone Cold Lock of the Century of the Week

Patriots @ Bengals (-13.5)

To end last season I looked to Bill and the New England Patriots to get one more win against the Jets but they failed me. Belichick’s tenure ended with a 17-3 wet fart and I’m sorry Pats fans unfortunately I’m expecting Jerod Mayo’s to start the same way. I think too much of a bad 4-13 squad was brought back expecting different results. It also doesn’t inspire confidence that the big offseason acquisitions for the offense are Jacoby Brissett and OC Alex Van Pelt. Sure their defense should be a strength but I’m guessing they’ll be on the field a lot Sunday. Now picking the Bengals does come with its share of concerns because the Brown family is a bunch of cheap bastards but it sounds like at least Chase will play. Even if he didn’t I’m not sure it’d change my opinion about this game, sorry Pats fan I think ya’ll Maye suck.

 Bengals -13.5 (+170)

The Taylor Bowl is finally here and it should be a good one. Thankfully it has been confirmed that “The Football Era” arrived at LAX last night so they’ll actually be able to play the game on time. Here at Bick’s Picks we’ve been riding with the Swifties throughout the playoffs and it’s been paying off. However not all of our last picks hit as we ended up with a 2-2 Championship Weekend. I can forgive an Over for missing but the Lions not winning that game will not be forgotten and Dan Campbell will not be forgiven. Also while we’re at it Ben Johnson can go to hell we didn’t want him anyways. My sour grapes aside, before I get into the picks I wanna give a big thanks to Jake’s Takes for giving me the opportunity to step in this season. Also shout out to the readers I’ve really appreciated those who have followed and hopefully you won some money either tailing or fading me. Although this may be the last blog of the season, rest assured I’ll be back but enough of all that we got one last game left to bet on so let’s get into it.

49ers @ Chiefs (+2)

Dread it. Run from it. Destiny arrives all the same. And now it’s here. Or should I say, Mahomes is. 4 of the last 5 Super Bowls have included the Chiefs so I’ll just cut to the chase. I think they beat the Niners again and win their 3rd ring. I mean the minute the Chiefs opened as dawgs I knew this was the play. Frankly, the wrong team is favored in this game. Personally I’m shocked to see Mahomes as a dawg for a 3rd game in a row and we all know what happens when he’s a dawg. Now I’ve been picking the Chiefs all playoffs so I won’t bore you again with all Patrick’s pretty stats because even though he’s the main reason I’m riding with KC. Steve Spagnuolo’s dominant defense is why I feel so confident. Question the man’s ability to be a head coach all you want but it’s not a stretch to say Spags is one of the best defensive coordinators of all time just ask the 07 Pats. Their pass rush led by Chris Jones was 3rd overall in sacks and can get after the quarterback better than anybody so, I’m expecting them to make a shaky Brock Purdy uncomfortable all day. Now, I won’t ignore that Purdy has been able to overcome the pressure he’s faced in recent weeks mounting multiple 2nd half comebacks to punch a ticket to the big game. But this Chiefs defense is a different animal than anything the Niners have faced this postseason. They’ve been absolutely dominant in the second half of games allowing only 10 points total over all 3 games so don’t expect them to piss away a 17 point lead like the Lions did. So while I’ll acknowledge for the record the Niners were the best team in the NFC and I probably shouldn’t be writing them off, but guess what this my blog and I don’t like Kyle Shanahan so that’s what I’m doing. In fact I’ll be bold and say the Chiefs win by a touchdown. So throw on your friendship bracelet, and your favorite cardigan because we’re cranking 1989 and eating cheeseburgers and nuggies tonight.

We made it people, the last weekend of football before the big game. Feels like only yesterday I was picking games for Thanksgiving and now it’s almost February. But let’s ignore the unstoppable march of time for a moment to enjoy the fact we had ourselves a 3-1 Divisional Round here at Bick’s Picks. First the Ravens delivered us the Over, then a couple 4th quarter TDs ensured the Lions covered, and to end the weekend another generation of Bills fans got to know the pain of Wide Right. The Packers did spoil an otherwise perfect weekend, but with how much cheese I’ve been eating while watching these games I should’ve known better. Regardless you guys know we don’t sweat the losses at Bick’s Picks we chase em, so let’s get into it.

Chiefs (+4.5) @ Ravens (44.5)

Your eyes do not deceive you. I am in fact making two picks for this game. Fact of the matter is I saw the opportunity to bet on a dawg or an Over, so I figured why not both? Now it may bother Pats fans for me to say but I get the same feeling of inevitability with Mahomes as I did with Brady. Sure the Chiefs were definitely a mess at times during the regular season but here we are and they’re playing in their 6th straight AFC Championship. Rookie Rashee Rice has emerged as a weapon outside, Pacheco has been running downhill and Taylor Swift’s boyfriend is finally catching more balls than he’s dropping. Although this may seem like familiar territory for Mahomes this is actually the first time since his rookie year that he’s been a dawg in back to back weeks. Some might say that’s a bad thing but they should know he won both those games his rookie year and we all know what happened last week. In fact over his entire career he’s 8-3 straight up and 9-1-1 against the spread when he’s a dawg. There’s a lot to like about those numbers but let’s not forget the reason Mahomes is a dawg is because the Ravens are the best team in football. The Ravens have the best record, the best rushing attack, the best defense and the probable MVP. There’s always a chance we could have a game similar to Super Bowl LV where Baltimore dominates the Chiefs like the Bucs did but personally I think we’re in for one to remember. As for the Over 44.5 for these teams is just too low I don’t care about the weather. Both of these teams are going to at least put up 20 and I don’t expect either to let up if they get the chance to spread it on. In the end it really wouldn’t surprise me if either team won this game but in the end I expect it to be close and with enough scoring to get us two wins to start the day.

Chiefs +4.5

Over 44.5

Lions (+7) @ 49ers

Right when the line opened I liked this number for the Lions. Admittedly I liked it even more when it briefly snuck up to +7.5 but either way I think these kittens cover. Hell I’ll say it, I like the Lions to win this game outright. Two huge home wins have Detroit faithful one game away from experiencing their first Super Bowl in their 93 year history. It might sound cliche to say but they feel like a team of destiny and I’m buying in. It’s easy to forget that Jared Goff is the second most experienced quarterback left in the playoffs and is a much better qb than the game manager he was during his Super Bowl run with the Rams. I’m also sure offensive genius and future Washington head coach Ben Johnson will have a game plan ready to attack a Niners defense that’s been susceptible to the run and some big plays. On the other side Brock Purdy has managed to stay mistake free in his playoff career but I think that luck is about to run out. Even though the Lions defense is considered the worst left in the playoffs, Aiden Hutchinson and company can get after the quarterback and I think they finally make Purdy turn it over. Admittedly it feels like I’m writing off San Fran and that’s probably because I am. My arbitrary bias is showing and I can’t shake the idea that Lil Shanny’s teams always choke. So I’ll be doing the Jeff special and throwing some on the spread and some on the moneyline.

Lions +7

Lions ML (+275)

8 teams. 4 games. Only 3 more games after these people we’re in the end game. After a Super Wild Card Weekend full of blow outs Bick’s Picks ended up with a 3-3 record. This might be obvious to say but this one is on me people. Not just because I’m making the picks but I went against some of the pillars of the foundation that Bick’s Picks is built on. I mean I picked an Under AND I picked the Cowboys in the playoffs, like what’s up with that? My lapses in judgment aside, it was also sad to see January Joe turn into Jeriatric Joe before our eyes. But as always we can’t stress last week’s losses because there’s not much football left so let’s get into it.

Texans @ Ravens (43.5)

Yup that’s right Overs are back and frankly they never should’ve left. You won’t catch another Under on Bick’s Picks you can count on that. This is the lowest total on the board and I’m honestly scratching my head as to why. Sure it’s chilly in Baltimore but I don’t think that’ll be enough to slow down these offenses. The Texans are fresh off of demolishing the Browns and would’ve covered this total on their own. Meanwhile Lamar and company are well rested and ready to make a statement. I think the Ravens come out trying to prove there’s a reason they’re the one seed and I don’t expect them to let their foot off the gas. Now I do think the Ravens could cover a big -9.5 spread but after last week I can’t count out some Stroud magic covering that big number. Either way I think we see enough points to start off Divisional Weekend with a win.

Over 43.5

Packers @ 49ers (-9.5)

Yup that’s right I’m picking against the Pack again. Admittedly this line is ugly but it’s stayed around 10 all week and that means to me the Niners are still the play. The Niners are well rested and frankly just the better team. Now I won’t deny that Love has had a horseshoe up his ass as of late and has been playing the best ball of his career but I don’t care, he’s due to turn back into a pumpkin. Now I do feel like I’m writing a very similar blog to last week but this is San Fran not Dallas and I feel a lot better about the Niners than the Cowboys for obvious reasons. Maybe the Packers show up and keep this close but I’m betting the fun is over for Green Bay and another 1 seed takes care of business.

49ers (-9.5)

Buccaneers @ Lions (-6)

I won’t lie, this was a tough one to pick for me. It’s not because I have a dog in  this fight or any personal stake I’m just honestly surprised that these teams are actually here. My disbelief aside I still have to pick this game and although my first instinct was to keep riding with the Bucs I’m gonna be biting kneecaps this Sunday instead. Sure the Bucs took care of business at home against a one dimensional Eagles but this Lions team is a different animal right now. They also got the playoff win drought off their backs so I think they’re past any jitters they might’ve had. Meanwhile Baker has been taking bad sacks and been playing mistake free for too long so I’m betting his luck runs out. So crank the 8 Mile soundtrack we’re eating mom’s spaghetti tomorrow.

Lions -6

Chiefs (+2.5) @ Bills

Here we are, the game of the weekend for sure. This Bills Chiefs rematch is the one a lot of people have been looking forward to and I think it’d live up to the hype. To keep it simple I’ve been down on the Bills all season and despite the Chiefs shortcomings this season I’m still counting on them showing up when it counts. Sure Josh Allen is coming off of one of his first mistake free games of the year but they still somehow found it close against a Steelers team that had no business in the playoffs. Also the fact the Bills had to keep playing that game led to some injuries making them much more banged up than the Chiefs. Now this is Mahomes’ first ever road playoff game which does give me some pause but in the end it’ll just be another milestone for him as they head to another AFC Championship. Gimme KC to cover and most likely leave Orchard Park with a win.

Chiefs +2.5