We’re quickly a month into the season as Week 4 is upon us folks. Not gonna lie to you people spirits are high here at Bick’s Picks. We rebounded with a 3-1 week of picks getting our record back to .500 on the season. On top of our success here, Jayden Daniels’ performance on MNF was nothing short of spectacular and I don’t think I’ve stopped watching those throws he made to Terry. Feels really good to think we might have the answer at quarterback, now we just have to teach him to slide so he’s not flying around like a crash test dummy. But as much as I’ve enjoyed basking in the glory of a primetime win, it’s time to get some more wins so let’s get into it.

Life’s Too Short to Bet the Under

Bills @ Ravens (46.5)

The Over has remained undefeated and I’m looking at the nightcap and some familiar faces to keep it that way. As soon as I saw this number down to 46.5 I had to jump on it. Simply put the Bills look like the best team in football through the first 3 weeks. You probably missed it because you were all too busy watching Jayden Daniels but the Bills were also destroying the floundering Jaguars 47-10 on MNF. Despite supposedly having all his weapons walk out the door Josh Allen looks better than ever and defenses can’t keep him off the field or out of the end zone. Now that’s enough fluffing for Buffalo, I actually also really like the Ravens in this spot as well. Despite being 1-2 Baltimore is still obviously one of the best teams in the AFC. Lamar has certainly been able to put up points and their 2nd half struggles shouldn’t deter us. The Ravens really need this one and I think this is a primetime spot where both these teams put on a show. It’s hard for me to not see both these teams scoring at least 3 touchdowns each. No matter who comes out on top I think we’re in for a great ending to our football Sunday.

Over 46.5 (-110)

Fade Dawgs

Commanders (+3.5) @ Cardinals

I mean did you really think I wasn’t gonna talk Jayden Daniels some more? Cards on the table this is as homer a pick as they come but I’m not afraid to admit it. The NFC’s Offensive Player of the week is fresh off arguably the best performance we’ve ever seen from a rookie quarterback finishing 21-of-23 passing for 254 yards 2 TDs through the air and another of course on the ground. Not to mention Washington hasn’t punted since Week 1 scoring on every single possession, aside from kneel-downs. Not too bad for a college offense if you ask me. Now I will admit that the defense for Washington remains a problem and I’m predicting we’re gonna struggle to stop Kyler Murray all day. Hopefully we’ll get enough bend don’t break defense from Washington that’ll give JD5 a chance to respond. In a typical letdown spot for us I’m betting the good times keep rolling.

Commanders +3.5 (-115)

Touchdown Triducken

Anytime TD Parlay: Jalen Hurts, Marvin Harrison Jr, Travis Kelce

Yikes. The Triducken is 0 for 3 on the season and was 0 for last week as well. Needless to say things could be going better. The thought has crossed my mind to retire the Triducken till Turkey Day but I’m stubborn. Speaking of stubborn yes I did include Jalen Hurts again this week. The Eagles will be without their top wide receivers and with everyone expecting the Saquon show I’m looking to Hurts to sneak one in. Next is Marvin Harrison Jr which should be an obvious one. No matter how over the moon I am for Jayden Daniels that won’t stop our defense from leaving the opposition’s number 1 wide open. Evans, Nabers and Chase all found the end zone with ease so I expect no difference for Harrison until Washington’s defense can prove otherwise. Last leg of the Triducken will be Taylor Swift’s boyfriend. Not necessarily the best reason to pick him but I feel like he’s due. Watching the Chiefs I feel there has been an effort by Reid to draw up plays for him in the red zone and think one of them is successful today. Not to mention the Chargers will be missing Derwin James which should only help. Here’s hoping the quarterback, wide receiver, tight end combo finally helps a Triducken payoff.

Anytime TD Triducken: Jalen Hurts, Marvin Harrison Jr, Travis Kelce (+929)

Bick’s Stone Cold Lock of the Century of the Week

Steelers (-2.5) @ Colts

Everywhere I looked doing research for my picks everyone seems to have the Colts in this game. Sharps all love this as a letdown spot for the Steelers and the perfect time to fade Tomlin. The logic all tracks and there’s plenty of reason to be skeptical of a Justin Fields’ led offense but the reason I’m riding with the public on this one is I can’t trust Anthony Richardson. Unlike NFL Rookie of the Week Jayden Daniels, the Colts quarterback has been a turnover machine and I expect him to keep coughing up the ball against a defense that has been smothering so far. Now that smothering defense has been downplayed by others pointing to the quarterbacks they’ve faced early on but I just kept saying to myself how is Anthony Richardson any different? Sure he can throw it over a mountain but so could Jamarcus Russell. TJ Watt will be everywhere and the Ohio State Peanut will do enough to cover the spread and keep Russ on the bench.

Steelers -2.5 (-108)

Week 3 is often one of desperation where the 0-2 teams are desperately trying to right the ship as they feel the season slipping through their fingers. To be honest it’s no different here at Bicks’s Picks because I don’t know about the rest of you but we’ve been taking a bath here so far. Week 2 was full of upsets and we didn’t see any of them coming. We rode with the Rams and the Niners which was a complete disaster. Kyler and Darnold both took personal offense to my blog as both those chuckleheads not only covered their spreads they both outright won. Then there’s my TD Triducken which was dead on arrival as not a single QB featured found the end zone. Thankfully I’ve had some luck with the Over as it remains undefeated so far this season. Also I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention that the 1st place Washington Commanders were the only team in the NFC East to win last weekend. Sure I didn’t write about it but much like Pats fans week 1 this is probably our Super Bowl so believe me I enjoyed it. That’s enough about celebrating low bars we need some wins to get Bick’s Picks back over .500 so let’s get into. 

Life’s Too Short to Bet the Under

Ravens @ Cowboys (47.5)

So far at Bick’s Picks the only thing we’ve been able to rely on is the Over. Sure it hasn’t been pretty and we’ve sweat out some low scoring first halves but a win is a win. Speaking of “hasn’t been pretty” we’re gonna be turning to two of the biggest disappointments from Week 2 to get us a win. The Ravens and Cowboys both suffered upsets at home BUT they also both reached the total. For all the hype these teams may have neither has been able to stop the opposition when it mattered most with both being bottom of the league in points allowed. I think a combination of bad defense and desperation to win will quickly turn this game into a shootout. Here’s hoping we get scoring early and often so the Over can stay undefeated. 

Over 47.5 (-112)

Fade Dawgs

Eagles (+3) @ Saints

Hey this segment is called FADE Dawgs for a reason right… Well I certainly hope y’all faded my Rams pick because good lord. Forget +1 we would’ve needed +31 for that bet to even be a push. Of all the upsets that happened Week 2 we weren’t in on any of them which doesn’t feel great. Hey speaking of not feeling great, how bout this Week 3 slate huh? Not one matchup that I really scratch my head and wonder how a team isn’t favored. However this is the only matchup that comes close. The thing is I know why the Eagles aren’t favored. They showed us why they aren’t against Primetime Kirk on MNF. Also in case you missed it Kamara just scored again because the Saints are the most explosive offense in football so far. The key word being so far because I’m fading the recency bias. My big reason for jumping on this game is how much the line moved. Before Week 2’s outcomes the line for this game was -3 Eagles not +3 Eagles. That kind of line action is something I can’t ignore and honestly the only Saints fan I know suggested I hang em up after last week so you know what that means? Call me Richard because I’m being petty.   

Eagles +3 (-124)

Touchdown Triducken

Anytime TD Parlay: Jalen Hurts, Zay Flowers, Tyreek Hill

Whelp I have only myself to blame for last week. I knew the QB TD parlay was a risk but all three missing hurt. This week I’m back on my QB TD bullshit with Hurts but I think that’s a much safer bet than the 3 I chose last week. I chose Zay because he’s been absolutely peppered with targets the first two weeks and I don’t think that changes in a matchup where I expect lots of scoring. Last pick is a bit of a sketchy one simply because it’s really hard to trust someone named Skylar. My apprehensions about the Dolphins QB aside I think there will be an effort to get Hill involved and at +195 I couldn’t resist tossing him in the parlay.

Anytime TD Triducken: Jalen Hurts, Zay Flowers, Tyreek Hill (+1612)

Bick’s Stone Cold Lock of the Century of the Week

Ravens (-1) @ Cowboys

Your eyes don’t deceive you. I am making two picks from the same game. Sure some might say this against some unwritten rule but guess what I make the rules and I can’t stay away from this game. There’s just too many reasons to like the Ravens in this spot. Get the obvious out of the way, Lamar doesn’t lose to the NFC. He’s 20-1 straight up in his career against the NFC and on top of that he’s 22-7 as an underdog or favorite of three or fewer points. Not to mention the Super Bowl aspiring Ravens are 0-2 for the first time in a decade and I just can’t see them falling to 0-3. Now personally I have learned my lesson moving the line but man it’s tempting to sprinkle a little on -6.5 or heck even -13.5. You know why? Because fuck the Cowboys that’s why.

Ravens -1 (-112)

Wanna Get Nuts? LET’S GET NUTS: Ravens -6.5 (+208), Ravens -13.5 (+488)

Alright before I dive into excuses let me give credit where credit is due, tip of the hat to Jerod Mayo and the Pats. I honestly thought there was no chance they’d cover, let alone outright win. Sure the Gatorade bath at the end was excessive but starting off a new era 1-0 must feel real good. Personally, I wouldn’t know as the Dan Quinn era was the one that started with a wet fart. That new look Washington’s defense I yammered on about couldn’t stop a nose bleed, letting Baker throw for 4 TDs. JD5 at least looks like the Lamar 2.0 some expected him to be, as he showed off his dynamic ability to run the ball and his eerily similar inability to find wide receivers. Our TD Triducken was also a miss because Ceedee was the only Cowboy that didn’t wanna score against the Browns but hey at least the Over hit in that game so that’s something. That’s enough dwelling on last week though we got some money to make so let’s get into it.

Life’s Too Short to Bet the Under

Raiders @ Ravens (41)

Just like last week there’s several games hanging around at this 41 number and it worked last week so why not come back for more. Similar to last week this is a line that has dropped since it came out and 84% of the bets are on the Under, so you know what that means? Time to fade the public. Those reasons aside I expect this game to get to this total because the Ravens will blow doors. They’ve been stewing with that loss to the Chiefs on opening night and I’m expecting them to beat the bag out of the Raiders and run up the score. So here’s hoping the Ravens are wearing their white cleats and cover this Over all by themselves.

Over 41 (-112)

Fade Dawgs

Rams (+1) @ Cardinals

I gotta admit finding a Dawg this week that I loved was a little tricky. Several teams were considered but as expected with underdogs there were reasons to question each of those picks. In the end even though this is practically a pick ’em I kept coming back to this game because the Cardinals were the favored team I trusted the least. The Rams are banged up coming off a tough OT loss to the Lions, but despite the loss of Puka and a couple offensive lineman I still like them more than Arizona. The Cards defense is still stinky and the Kyler to Harrison connection looks like it’s gonna need some time to develop. Not to mention Kyler is 1-7 all time against the Rams so I’m gonna trust McVay and company to get it done.

Rams +1 (-115)

Touchdown Triducken

Anytime TD Parlay: Jayden Daniels, Lamar Jackson, Justin Fields

Our Triducken came up one leg short last week because of Ceedee which was definitely a disappointment. I went with what I thought were sure things but alas it wasn’t meant to be. This week I’m getting a little spicy and we’re going all QB rushing TDs chasing the big payout. Is that the best idea? Probably not. But they’re my picks so deal with it. The age of the running QB is here and I’m aiming to profit off it.

Anytime TD Triducken: Jayden Daniels, Lamar Jackson, Justin Fields (+1794)

Bick’s Stone Cold Lock of the Century of the Week

49ers (-4.5) @ Vikings

Alright I learned by lesson last week picking against the Pats I gotta try to keep the spite and bias out of my locks. With that being said I certainly have no love for Kyle Shanahan but I can’t deny that once again they look like the class of the NFC. They dominated the Jets without CMC and frankly I got no reason to believe anything different will happen to the Vikings. Sure Minnesota is 1-0 and Sam Darnold looked more competent than expected but it was against the Giants. Not to mention any career resurgence Sam Darnold could be having is being quickly credited to the time he spent in San Fran last season. So I’m thinking if anyone can quickly turn Darnold back into a pumpkin it’ll be the Niners. I almost wanna tease this up to -6.5 but after last week I’ll take the -4.5 for an easy win.

Niners -4.5 (-110)

I took the cheese and I paid for it. After a perfect 3-0 Thursday opener the Packers let me down on Friday losing to the Eagles in a slippery track meet of a game. I’ve only really got myself to blame but I’m also gonna give a special shout out to the terrible field conditions in Sao Paulo. No chance the NFL goes back to Brazil anytime soon if the injury Jordan Love sustained with 6 seconds left causes him to miss any significant time. But enough complaining we’ve got a loss to chase and here we are once again with an unpredictably close Week 1 slate staring back at us. If this year seems especially close, that’s because it is. For the first time since 2010 we’ve only got one game with a spread of 7 or more points. As a result I’m seeing all the supposed “experts” passing on games rather than making picks. That might fly over at The Ringer or Action Network, but not here at Bick’s Picks where no spread is too close, no total too high. As I’m a creature of habit you should all be familiar with our format of an Over, an Underdog, a TD Parlay and a Lock. Who knows maybe I’ll get spicy and shake things up down the line but Week 1 already looks tough enough to predict without changing up my picks so let’s get into it.

Life’s Too Short to Bet the Under

Cowboys @ Browns (41)

There’s a bunch of games opening at 41 but for some reason this one keeps calling my name especially since the line keeps dropping. Not entirely sure the reason but this has been the most popular Under bet for Week 1, and as a result the line moved from 44.5 at open to the 41 it is now. Not that I need an excuse to fade the public but my hands are tied in situations like this. These teams were a combined 22-14 for the O/U last season and as good as their defenses might be I’m expecting them both to give up big plays through the air as we cruise to an easy Over win.

Over 41 (-110)

Fade Dawgs

Commanders (+3.5) @ Buccaneers

C’mon, did you really think that Washington wouldn’t make an appearance in the Week 1 picks? And that’s right you’re reading correctly I’m not betting against them we’re betting on them. I’m all in on JD5 and the new regime. Sure, I have my second thoughts about Dan Quinn and the literal ghosts of 1st round QBs past (RIP Haskins) always haunt me but Dan Snyder is gone so anything is possible. In all seriousness I really do think this will be a team that could surprise some people this season and I think it starts Week 1. I’m obviously enamoured with the dual threat Jayden Daniels will be for this team but the real reason I like them in this spot is their revamped defense. New GM Adam Peters and Dan Quinn completely overhauled the roster with only 39% of the 2023 roster returning which is by the lowest percentage in the league. This was long overdue and new additions like Bobby Wagner, Frankie Luvu and Jeremy Chinn should help improve a painfully underperforming defense. The pass rush couldn’t have been worse last season being dead last in most categories but that should change under Quinn who’s known for being creative with drawing up ways to create pressure. Now so far I’ve admittedly been whistling past the Bucs in this write up because they just feel like they’re the same team last year. Not that it’s a terrible thing but I can’t ignore the feeling that they over performed and frankly got a little lucky last season. That said Mike Evans will get his (see the TD Triducken) but I think Washington can force Baker to make enough mistakes to make this a close game, maybe even pull off the upset. Mayfield after all is 14-26-1 all time against the spread as a favorite so let’s ride with JD5 in his Burgundy and Gold debut.

Commanders +3.5 (-108)

Touchdown Triducken

Anytime TD Parlay: Mike Evans, Ceedee Lamb, Josh Allen

Those new to Bick’s Picks might not be familiar with the term Triducken, but it’s our homage to the late great John Madden. It’s a touchdown inside a touchdown inside another touchdown, what’s not to like? Feel like I kept it simple and went for what I thought was sure things. Ceedee’s scored in 9 straight regular season games to end last season and he remains THE weapon in the Cowboys offense. Washington always seems to struggle to limit an opposing team’s biggest weapon so until I see them do otherwise I think Evans is a safe bet. My doppelgänger Josh Allen had 15 rushing TDs last season and this season the Bills are definitely looking for him to put the team on his back with Diggs out the door. Sure I‘m playing it safe but after the Commanders pick it’s probably not the worst idea.

Anytime TD Triducken: Mike Evans, Ceedee Lamb, Josh Allen (+869)

Bick’s Stone Cold Lock of the Century of the Week

Patriots @ Bengals (-13.5)

To end last season I looked to Bill and the New England Patriots to get one more win against the Jets but they failed me. Belichick’s tenure ended with a 17-3 wet fart and I’m sorry Pats fans unfortunately I’m expecting Jerod Mayo’s to start the same way. I think too much of a bad 4-13 squad was brought back expecting different results. It also doesn’t inspire confidence that the big offseason acquisitions for the offense are Jacoby Brissett and OC Alex Van Pelt. Sure their defense should be a strength but I’m guessing they’ll be on the field a lot Sunday. Now picking the Bengals does come with its share of concerns because the Brown family is a bunch of cheap bastards but it sounds like at least Chase will play. Even if he didn’t I’m not sure it’d change my opinion about this game, sorry Pats fan I think ya’ll Maye suck.

 Bengals -13.5 (+170)

The Taylor Bowl is finally here and it should be a good one. Thankfully it has been confirmed that “The Football Era” arrived at LAX last night so they’ll actually be able to play the game on time. Here at Bick’s Picks we’ve been riding with the Swifties throughout the playoffs and it’s been paying off. However not all of our last picks hit as we ended up with a 2-2 Championship Weekend. I can forgive an Over for missing but the Lions not winning that game will not be forgotten and Dan Campbell will not be forgiven. Also while we’re at it Ben Johnson can go to hell we didn’t want him anyways. My sour grapes aside, before I get into the picks I wanna give a big thanks to Jake’s Takes for giving me the opportunity to step in this season. Also shout out to the readers I’ve really appreciated those who have followed and hopefully you won some money either tailing or fading me. Although this may be the last blog of the season, rest assured I’ll be back but enough of all that we got one last game left to bet on so let’s get into it.

49ers @ Chiefs (+2)

Dread it. Run from it. Destiny arrives all the same. And now it’s here. Or should I say, Mahomes is. 4 of the last 5 Super Bowls have included the Chiefs so I’ll just cut to the chase. I think they beat the Niners again and win their 3rd ring. I mean the minute the Chiefs opened as dawgs I knew this was the play. Frankly, the wrong team is favored in this game. Personally I’m shocked to see Mahomes as a dawg for a 3rd game in a row and we all know what happens when he’s a dawg. Now I’ve been picking the Chiefs all playoffs so I won’t bore you again with all Patrick’s pretty stats because even though he’s the main reason I’m riding with KC. Steve Spagnuolo’s dominant defense is why I feel so confident. Question the man’s ability to be a head coach all you want but it’s not a stretch to say Spags is one of the best defensive coordinators of all time just ask the 07 Pats. Their pass rush led by Chris Jones was 3rd overall in sacks and can get after the quarterback better than anybody so, I’m expecting them to make a shaky Brock Purdy uncomfortable all day. Now, I won’t ignore that Purdy has been able to overcome the pressure he’s faced in recent weeks mounting multiple 2nd half comebacks to punch a ticket to the big game. But this Chiefs defense is a different animal than anything the Niners have faced this postseason. They’ve been absolutely dominant in the second half of games allowing only 10 points total over all 3 games so don’t expect them to piss away a 17 point lead like the Lions did. So while I’ll acknowledge for the record the Niners were the best team in the NFC and I probably shouldn’t be writing them off, but guess what this my blog and I don’t like Kyle Shanahan so that’s what I’m doing. In fact I’ll be bold and say the Chiefs win by a touchdown. So throw on your friendship bracelet, and your favorite cardigan because we’re cranking 1989 and eating cheeseburgers and nuggies tonight.

We made it people, the last weekend of football before the big game. Feels like only yesterday I was picking games for Thanksgiving and now it’s almost February. But let’s ignore the unstoppable march of time for a moment to enjoy the fact we had ourselves a 3-1 Divisional Round here at Bick’s Picks. First the Ravens delivered us the Over, then a couple 4th quarter TDs ensured the Lions covered, and to end the weekend another generation of Bills fans got to know the pain of Wide Right. The Packers did spoil an otherwise perfect weekend, but with how much cheese I’ve been eating while watching these games I should’ve known better. Regardless you guys know we don’t sweat the losses at Bick’s Picks we chase em, so let’s get into it.

Chiefs (+4.5) @ Ravens (44.5)

Your eyes do not deceive you. I am in fact making two picks for this game. Fact of the matter is I saw the opportunity to bet on a dawg or an Over, so I figured why not both? Now it may bother Pats fans for me to say but I get the same feeling of inevitability with Mahomes as I did with Brady. Sure the Chiefs were definitely a mess at times during the regular season but here we are and they’re playing in their 6th straight AFC Championship. Rookie Rashee Rice has emerged as a weapon outside, Pacheco has been running downhill and Taylor Swift’s boyfriend is finally catching more balls than he’s dropping. Although this may seem like familiar territory for Mahomes this is actually the first time since his rookie year that he’s been a dawg in back to back weeks. Some might say that’s a bad thing but they should know he won both those games his rookie year and we all know what happened last week. In fact over his entire career he’s 8-3 straight up and 9-1-1 against the spread when he’s a dawg. There’s a lot to like about those numbers but let’s not forget the reason Mahomes is a dawg is because the Ravens are the best team in football. The Ravens have the best record, the best rushing attack, the best defense and the probable MVP. There’s always a chance we could have a game similar to Super Bowl LV where Baltimore dominates the Chiefs like the Bucs did but personally I think we’re in for one to remember. As for the Over 44.5 for these teams is just too low I don’t care about the weather. Both of these teams are going to at least put up 20 and I don’t expect either to let up if they get the chance to spread it on. In the end it really wouldn’t surprise me if either team won this game but in the end I expect it to be close and with enough scoring to get us two wins to start the day.

Chiefs +4.5

Over 44.5

Lions (+7) @ 49ers

Right when the line opened I liked this number for the Lions. Admittedly I liked it even more when it briefly snuck up to +7.5 but either way I think these kittens cover. Hell I’ll say it, I like the Lions to win this game outright. Two huge home wins have Detroit faithful one game away from experiencing their first Super Bowl in their 93 year history. It might sound cliche to say but they feel like a team of destiny and I’m buying in. It’s easy to forget that Jared Goff is the second most experienced quarterback left in the playoffs and is a much better qb than the game manager he was during his Super Bowl run with the Rams. I’m also sure offensive genius and future Washington head coach Ben Johnson will have a game plan ready to attack a Niners defense that’s been susceptible to the run and some big plays. On the other side Brock Purdy has managed to stay mistake free in his playoff career but I think that luck is about to run out. Even though the Lions defense is considered the worst left in the playoffs, Aiden Hutchinson and company can get after the quarterback and I think they finally make Purdy turn it over. Admittedly it feels like I’m writing off San Fran and that’s probably because I am. My arbitrary bias is showing and I can’t shake the idea that Lil Shanny’s teams always choke. So I’ll be doing the Jeff special and throwing some on the spread and some on the moneyline.

Lions +7

Lions ML (+275)

8 teams. 4 games. Only 3 more games after these people we’re in the end game. After a Super Wild Card Weekend full of blow outs Bick’s Picks ended up with a 3-3 record. This might be obvious to say but this one is on me people. Not just because I’m making the picks but I went against some of the pillars of the foundation that Bick’s Picks is built on. I mean I picked an Under AND I picked the Cowboys in the playoffs, like what’s up with that? My lapses in judgment aside, it was also sad to see January Joe turn into Jeriatric Joe before our eyes. But as always we can’t stress last week’s losses because there’s not much football left so let’s get into it.

Texans @ Ravens (43.5)

Yup that’s right Overs are back and frankly they never should’ve left. You won’t catch another Under on Bick’s Picks you can count on that. This is the lowest total on the board and I’m honestly scratching my head as to why. Sure it’s chilly in Baltimore but I don’t think that’ll be enough to slow down these offenses. The Texans are fresh off of demolishing the Browns and would’ve covered this total on their own. Meanwhile Lamar and company are well rested and ready to make a statement. I think the Ravens come out trying to prove there’s a reason they’re the one seed and I don’t expect them to let their foot off the gas. Now I do think the Ravens could cover a big -9.5 spread but after last week I can’t count out some Stroud magic covering that big number. Either way I think we see enough points to start off Divisional Weekend with a win.

Over 43.5

Packers @ 49ers (-9.5)

Yup that’s right I’m picking against the Pack again. Admittedly this line is ugly but it’s stayed around 10 all week and that means to me the Niners are still the play. The Niners are well rested and frankly just the better team. Now I won’t deny that Love has had a horseshoe up his ass as of late and has been playing the best ball of his career but I don’t care, he’s due to turn back into a pumpkin. Now I do feel like I’m writing a very similar blog to last week but this is San Fran not Dallas and I feel a lot better about the Niners than the Cowboys for obvious reasons. Maybe the Packers show up and keep this close but I’m betting the fun is over for Green Bay and another 1 seed takes care of business.

49ers (-9.5)

Buccaneers @ Lions (-6)

I won’t lie, this was a tough one to pick for me. It’s not because I have a dog in  this fight or any personal stake I’m just honestly surprised that these teams are actually here. My disbelief aside I still have to pick this game and although my first instinct was to keep riding with the Bucs I’m gonna be biting kneecaps this Sunday instead. Sure the Bucs took care of business at home against a one dimensional Eagles but this Lions team is a different animal right now. They also got the playoff win drought off their backs so I think they’re past any jitters they might’ve had. Meanwhile Baker has been taking bad sacks and been playing mistake free for too long so I’m betting his luck runs out. So crank the 8 Mile soundtrack we’re eating mom’s spaghetti tomorrow.

Lions -6

Chiefs (+2.5) @ Bills

Here we are, the game of the weekend for sure. This Bills Chiefs rematch is the one a lot of people have been looking forward to and I think it’d live up to the hype. To keep it simple I’ve been down on the Bills all season and despite the Chiefs shortcomings this season I’m still counting on them showing up when it counts. Sure Josh Allen is coming off of one of his first mistake free games of the year but they still somehow found it close against a Steelers team that had no business in the playoffs. Also the fact the Bills had to keep playing that game led to some injuries making them much more banged up than the Chiefs. Now this is Mahomes’ first ever road playoff game which does give me some pause but in the end it’ll just be another milestone for him as they head to another AFC Championship. Gimme KC to cover and most likely leave Orchard Park with a win.

Chiefs +2.5

Why are we getting Bick’s Picks on a Saturday? Because I cut the brakes! Wild card bitches! The football gods have gifted us with three straight days of NFL playoffs and it’s shaping up should be a good one. We’re expecting to get some all time football weather for some of these games, not to mention I’m feeling some upsets this weekend. Also since it’s the playoffs we’re switching up the format and betting every game whether we want to or not so let’s get into it. 

Browns (-2.5) @ Texans

Personally I think it’s unfortunate teams are meeting up in the first round because both are such good stories but thankfully at least one of these teams will advance. And yup that’s right I’m riding January Joe in this one. Simply put I’m riding with experience in this one and that will be a trend moving forward with the rest of my picks. This young Texans team is a great story and honestly a great example of how you can turn things around quickly if you draft the right QB but at the end of the day I think their inexperience will lead to mistakes that the Browns will capitalize on. Stroud very easily could prove me wrong but a well rested Browns team should be able to get the job done.

Browns (-2.5)

Dolphins @ Chiefs (-4.5)

It’s gonna be cold. Like all time it’s dangerous to be outside cold. It’ll easily be the coldest game in Dolphins franchise history and they simply don’t do well in the cold. Fins have lost 10 straight games that have had temperatures below 40 degrees and I think that trend continues. Nevermind the fact this will be Tua’s first playoff start and I think he’ll make mistakes. Miami is also dealing with numerous injuries on offense and on defense which doesn’t bode well for them. Now I won’t ignore the Chiefs have looked bad by their standards but it’s the playoffs they’ll show up for round 1 at home. Gimme the KC all day.

Chiefs (-4.5)

Steelers @ Bills (Under 37)

Whelp I had to scrap this whole pick as I was just finishing Bick’s Picks when the news dropped that this game was moving to Monday. My pick originally was to hammer the Under because that was nearly a guarantee since this game was gonna get played in a blizzard with 50 mph winds. Now even though the Under isn’t as appealing I still think it’s the play. The spread is 10 and although I can see the Bills covering that I’m not willing to bet on it. So I’m sticking with the Under but admittedly don’t feel as good about it as I did before.

Under 37

Packers @ Cowboys (-7)

I’ll address right away this is an ugly line and also yes I am betting on the Cowboys in the playoffs. Once again the main reason for this is that I’m betting against inexperience. Love looks pretty good as of late and managed to do enough to secure the Packers a spot in the playoffs but I feel like they needed some luck to get there. Looking back at the Packers low points this season they stand out to me a lot more than the highlights. Sure the Cowboys have been all over the place this season but they’ve been a much better team at home. End of the day Cowboys are the better team and I think their desire to run up the score when ahead helps us cover in the end.

Cowboys -7

Rams (+3) @ Lions

I won’t deny it, I’m a broken record today because once again I’m betting against inexperience in this matchup. This time it isn’t the quarterback but instead the coach and most of the Lions team. But in regards to the quarterback I’m also betting against Jared Goof. That guy has turned into a pumpkin at the worst times this season and I think it happens again tomorrow night. On the other side Rams are a very experienced squad capable of making a surprise Super Bowl run. They’re also rested and in the end I think they don’t shrink in the moment like I’m expecting the Lions to do.

Rams +3

Eagles @ Buccaneers (+2.5)

I won’t waste my time talking about this one a ton because I think we all know why I’m betting against the Eagles in this one. Cause fuck em that’s why! These jabronis have lost every time I’ve bet them so I’m not gonna make that mistake again. Also let’s not forget the Iggles are simply a mess right now. They’ve lost 5 of 6, the defense can’t stop a nosebleed, Hurts’ finger looks like ET’s and AJ Brown won’t be playing. Now I’m not in love with the idea of relying on Baker to get us a win but this is a bet against the Eagles as much as it is one for the Bucs. Ride with the Bucs and fire the cannons.

Buccaneers +2.5

Here we are Week 18. We made it. Who would’ve thought? Not me. It’s been a season of highs and lows here at Bick’s Picks but after two winning weeks we find ourselves at a 27-25-1 record going into the final week of regular season football. Last week we were almost perfect but alas the Triducken once again came up one leg short when Mike Evans failed to find pay dirt. As is tradition the last week of the regular season is the most meaningful while most also being the most meaningless of all. We got teams fighting for their playoff lives, we got teams who already clinched resting their starters and we got teams trying to ruin their draft pick. Despite all of the chaos Week 18 is bound to bring I’m confident we can pick some winners so let’s get into it.

Life’s Too Short to Bet the Under

Cowboys @ Commanders (46.5)

I’ll admit right away all the Week 18 shenanigans had me looking extra close at this week’s slate of totals. We got a lot backups playing and lots of bad weather but we do have some teams with something to play for and I saw the perfect matchup. The Cowboys are looking to win the NFC East and Washington is a spectacular dumpster fire. When these teams met earlier this season on Thanksgiving Dak and company practically covered the Over themselves. The Cowboys like to run up the score against bad teams and I expect them to do just that. It pains me to say it I do have some doubt that Howell can pull his weight but in the end it’s Dallas week and think the guys have enough pride to show up. The Over hits easy as the Cowboys roll and Washington secures the number 2 pick. 

Over 46.5

Fade Dawgs

Jaguars @ Titans (+4.5)

Simply put this is a bet that the Jaguars will choke. As bad as the Titans have been this season you know that Vrabel will have his team fired up to play spoiler. Sure the Jags stopped the bleeding last week with a win against the Panthers but that doesn’t make me feel any better about the way they’re trending. Lawrence is still a gametime decision to play and even if he does I’m not convinced that’s a good thing as he’s been a turnover prone mess. There is always a chance that the Jags actually show up for this must win game but my guess is history repeats itself and they lose outright and miss the playoffs just like they did two seasons ago. Gimme Vrabes and Titans all day.

Titans (+4.5)

Touchdown Triducken

Anytime TD Parlay: Mike Evans, Justin Fields, Ezekiel Elliott

I know what you’re saying “Wait a minute I thought I lost money on this parlay last week?” Well you did but I don’t think you will again. As I said earlier Mike Evans was the only leg to come up short and I don’t think he’s held out of the endzone against Carolina defense that he’s already score against this season. After that I once again looked to our pair of Buckeyes to get it done. Fields is playing the best ball of his pro career and another Zeke heavy script in a snow game will hopefully make the Triducken a winner once again.

Anytime TD Triducken: Mike Evans, Justin Fields, Ezekiel Elliott (+951)

Bick’s Stone Cold Lock of the Century of the Week

Jets @ Patriots (-2.5)

There aren’t many things you can count on but in my opinion you can count on the Pats beating the Jets. Sure there’s the occasional upset but even in a season when the Patriots have a worse record and are projected have a top 3 pick they’re somehow still favored. The main reason they’re favored this time is because Bill has the defense flying around making plays and forcing turnovers. Speaking of turnovers I’m expecting a bunch tomorrow especially with the sloppy weather conditions. Unfortunately Zappe might cough up the ball a couple times himself but I think the Pats are better able to capitalize on their chances. Concerns about Zappe aside I’m counting the Patriots playing hard and getting a win in what could be Belichick’s last game in New England.

Patriots (-2.5)