The Antithesis – Lions @ Chiefs -4.5
In an off the record conversation, a man known as Jake told me "I don't look at no dang trends" as he put his money on the Chiefs with no Chris Jones, no Travis Kelce. So I said that disrespect will get you an antithesis for the very first game of the year.
Here are a few of those trends, against the spread.
- Jared Goff is 6-0 in week 1. He is the most profitable QB in the past 5 years at 48-32-2.
- Patrick Mahomes is 14-25 when favored over a field goal since 2020.
- The Lions have never lost a week 1 Thursday night game.
Detroit has a solid run game that will shred the KC defense without Jones. Expect 12th overall pick Jahmyr Gibbs to have a heavy work load in his debut. Jones also held the third highest pressure rate for interior linemen last year. This bodes well for the other rookie Sam LaPorta. He is the only tight end I drafted, so that brilliant insight will be on full display tonight.
Finally, I have on good authority from one of the sharpest bettors who works in or around Boston that Goff will throw for 4 TDs this game. I do still see the Chiefs winning on a late drive in an absolute barn burner but give me the Lions to cover. Chiefs 37-34
Jake's Takes 