Welcome back to Part 2 of my NFL Team Futures blog. Like the last blog, we are going to look at each NFC division and give the best pick to win each division based on value and how realistic their chances at actually winning are. Like I said in the last post this isn’t a prediction blog. This is an advice blog on where you’ll get the best bang for your buck betting division futures. Let’s get into it.

NFC East

The Odds: Cowboys +125, Eagles +165, Commanders +500, Giants +750

Starting off we have what has been probably the most volatile division in the NFL in my lifetime. Out of all 8 divisions this one is always the hardest to pick, so whatever I end up going with is probably wrong. Since the Eagles won four straight division titles from 2001-04, no team has been able to repeat as division champs. That doesn’t bode well for the defending champion Cowboys, who also happen to be the favorites to win the East this year. Another division that feels like a two team race, but you never know when it comes to the NFC Beast. I will say the Giants are going to be out for me here, they seem like they’re headed for another 6/7 win season. I do like the Commanders roster, but what I don’t like is Carson Wentz. This seems like his last chance to prove himself, and if he can’t get it done with Terry McLaurin, Curtis Samuel, and rookie Jahan Dotson to throw to it might be curtains for the duck hunter. So, because of who’s throwing the ball in Washington this one comes down to the Cowboys and Eagles. With pretty similar odds between the two teams this will be another case where value won’t come into play. Everyone seems to be high on the Eagles this year, but this is another case of a good roster with a QB that may be holding them back. Dallas was great during the regular season last year before losing in the Wild Card round to the 49ers. This one is tough for me, I like what the Eagles were able to do in the offseason, but they still finished 3 games behind the Cowboys last year. On the other hand, I don’t think the Cowboys necessarily got worse either so I am riding with Dallas here.

The Play: Cowboys +125

NFC North

The Odds: Packers -175, Vikings +225, Lions +1000, Bears +1400

I’ll be quick with this one. The Lions and the Bears stink, and even though I love Dan Campbell and Justin Fields they’re out. As long as they have Kirk Cousins at QB, Minnesota is going to be a middling .500 team that every few years gets in the 10 win range and sneaks in the Wild Card. The Packers regressed basically just by trading Devante Adams, but I do like their pick of Christian Watson in the second round of the draft after rounding out the defense in the first round. Aaron Rodgers has won the last two MVPs, and while I think someone else wins it this year I don’t think his production will fall off much. Green Bay’s -175 line gives just enough value if you want to pay up a bit for a future while assuming minimal risk. I think the Packers win at least 11 games this season and I don’t see how the Vikings can match that. Set aside a few extra bucks, take the Packers in the North, and sit back and relax.

The Play: Packers -175

NFC South

The Odds: Buccaneers -290, Saints +335, Panthers +1100, Falcons +2200

Another two team race here and very similar to the situation we had with the AFC East. The Panthers and the Falcons won’t be contending for the division this season. What makes this difficult is much like the Bills, there isn’t a ton of value in taking the Bucs here. So that begs the question, do the Saints have any chance at making this a close race? A full season of Jameis Winston is a good start. Last season they were 5-2 in games started by Winston, but finished 9-8 after his ACL injury. They still have a good roster adding Tyrann Mathieu in free agency as well to bolster the defense. I also love what they did in the first round of the draft taking Chris Olave (WR) and Trevor Penning (OT). The Bucs on the other hand retain Tom Brady after a brief retirement, which is all you really need to know about them. They’ll be a 11/12 win team most likely and they probably win this division, but if a couple things go wrong and they Saints hang around they might be able to steal it. Not to mention the Saints are 4-0 against the Bucs with Tom Brady in the regular season. If they can even split the season series it’ll go a long way. At the end of the day I can’t justify taking the Bucs at -290 it just isn’t worth it to me so I’ll roll with Jameis here.

The Play: Saints +335

NFC West

The Odds: Rams +135, 49ers +215, Cardinals +275, Seahawks +900

Seemingly a tough call with three playoff teams from last year, but I actually don’t think this is that hard to pick and I’ll tell you why. The Seahawks aren’t going anywhere with Geno Smith or Drew Lock, so they’re out. The Cardinals are a good team, but until they prove they can play good football past Halloween I’m not buying them to win the division. Can they make the playoffs? Yes 100%, but if they continue fading down the stretch they aren’t winning the division. The 49ers are a team I have vehemently backed in the last few years, but this might be the year I take a break. Another great team, but they are rolling the dice with Trey Lance at QB and who knows what that looks like. That leaves us with the defending Super Bowl Champions. They are a team set up to make another deep playoff run, and I think that starts with them winning the NFC West. When you look at the odds you still get a positive return on the Rams and the payout for the Niners and Cardinals isn’t lucrative enough for me to not take the defending champs here.

The Play: Rams +135

Stay tuned for more NFL betting blogs.