Super Bowl LX is here people and I’m gonna do my best to keep the sodium levels of these picks as low as I can. After all, I should be used to my team’s absence and at the very least I don’t have to suffer through the possibility of another Eagles championship. Heck even the Chiefs were nice enough to take a year off but of course they just handed the baton back to the other team that always represents the AFC. Now before I dive into tonight’s game I might as well quickly recap Championship Weekend since I gotta bitch about the money we lost. Simply put, there isn’t enough lipstick in the world that could’ve made that pig of an AFC Championship look pretty. Truly a game that only a Pats fan could love, but even they had to sweat it out till the very end. Which of course means the one time I outright backed New England this postseason they failed to cover all 3 spreads. Somehow not all was lost that day as the NFC Championship not only delivered a winning pick but also an entertaining game. Admittedly, I missed the whole first half because I was rage shoveling in a blizzard trying to find ways to cope with having to watch the 10th Patriots Super Bowl of my lifetime. But hey, from what I did watch that game was at the very least enjoyable and it didn’t have the stink of preseason football. My salt and sour grapes aside it doesn’t matter how you get to this stage there’s no denying both these teams earned this chance at immortality. It’s not how you get there because all that matters is who’s lifting that Lombardi trophy at the end of the night. Now it should come as no surprise that I’m very eager to put this season in the rearview because as we all know it was a dreadful one for Washington and as next week’s season recap will show it wasn’t good for us at Bick’s Picks either. As always you’ll get my picks to wrap up what has been an unpredictable season, as well as one more guest pick from Brady’s Parlay of the Day so without further ado let’s get into it.

Seahawks (ML) @ Patriots (+14.5,+7.5)

Yupp that’s right after a season of largely avoiding them I’m gonna end this season with some silly ass parlays. I mean no matter what I guarantee I messed this up as I’m 0-5 picking Pats games this postseason. It hasn’t mattered if I thought they’d squeak out a win but fail to cover or if I picked them outright I’ve simply been wrong. Sure the value pick for this game is to just pick New England to win but I’m pretty sure we all know I can’t do that even if I truly believed it would happen. After all, even though the goal of this blog is to win money I still have my pride and my arbitrary biases to adhere to. Don’t get me wrong, even though I don’t know a single fan I have no love for the Seahawks as they’ve gotten the better of Washington in a couple postseason matchups. That’s the thing though, I don’t live in Seattle. Honestly the simple fact I’ve had to explain numerous times why I’m not rooting for the Pats is enough for me to lose my money on Sam Darnold. Plus let’s be honest I know the Foxboro faithful reading this blog might stop talking to me if I picked them to win. That said it really has been a helluva season for the Patriots. I’ve literally been watching alongside you guys all the way since joint practices with Washington in the preseason and I even went to a couple of your games. Given what this team was last year under Mayo and heck even the way they looked Week 1 against the Raiders it’s really remarkable and impressive they are one win away from winning it all. So even though I got Seattle winning I’ve got a hard time thinking that Maye and company will go quietly. They haven’t lost by more than a TD all season and even though I can’t back them to win I think they’ll make it a good game. So please Pats fans don’t take this pick too personally. I just hope it’s a good close game, that everyone has fun, that there aren’t a lot of flags and that your team loses. Is that too much to ask?

Parlay 1: Seahawks ML and Patriots +14.5 (-110)

Parlay 2: Seahawks ML and Patriots +7.5 (+200)

Brady’s Parlay of the Day

The Parlay: Patriots ML, Drake Maye 230+ Passing Yards, Drake Maye 2+ Passing TDs

The Patriots are back in the Super Bowl! No one seems to be giving us a chance in this game after a 14-3 season because of our “easy” schedule. Easy or not the Patriots have won 16/17 since starting the year 1-2 and have gone through three very tough defenses in the playoffs to get to the big stage. On the other side the Seahawks are depending on Sam Darnold to lead them to a title and my mind just can’t comprehend that. I’m expecting Sam to see some ghosts tonight while his counterpart,and the player that should have won league MVP this year, Drake Maye will take home the Super Bowl MVP instead and bring the Lombardi trophy back to Foxboro!

Brady’s Parlay of the Day: Patriots ML, Drake Maye 230+ Passing Yards, Drake Maye 2+ Passing TDs (+575)

Championship Weekend is here people and it’s shaping up to be a really meh one. What? Did you think just because I went 0-4 last week you thought I’d become less of hater? Sure whatever, congrats to those who advanced and I can obviously admit it is a big weekend for a bunch of our readers but that doesn’t change the fact we’re watching a bunch of bad football. Speaking of which you guys are owed a Divisional Sunday recap and now that I’m not throwing up from being sick I have some words. Let’s just get the Rams failing to cover that -6.5 out of the way. My goodness how in God’s name do you let up a conversion let alone a touchdown on that 4th down throw by Caleb. Just so ridiculous they even got the ball back it honestly seemed rigged. I guess a small part of me is happy the Bears lost anyways but I’m more so bitter about our bet. And then there’s the Texans +3 which plenty of you oh so humble Pats fans were quick to rub in my face. That game was atrocious. I don’t know what was making me more sick, the flu or the sheer number of egregious giveaways committed by both teams. I gave New England credit for the game plan on Herbert but I refuse to shower them with praise for what happened with Stroud. Sure they almost certainly dialed up the pressure and made the plays given to them on defense but it was an implosion reminiscent of Jake Delhomme in 2008 against the Cardinals. Oh and somehow it only gets better because now they get Jarrett Stidham for the Championship game because sure why not. I’ll admit this write up is overflowing with sodium but trust me as someone who’s watched a lot of bad football in my days I’m just taken aback and a little disgusted that bad football is gonna win a Super Bowl this year. But let’s not belabor the point I got some picks to make/complain about so let’s get into it.

Patriots (-3.5,-6.5,-9.5) @ Broncos

I’m not even gonna pretend I like making this pick but it’s the pick that needs to be made. Yes I know, up till this point I have picked the opposing team to cover against New England but not this time. Frankly even though those weren’t winning bets I’m struggling to admit they were bad bets because of how Jekyll and Hyde the Patriots’ offense has been. Drake is either throwing absolute dimes to Boutte or having zero pocket awareness and getting blasted for another fumble. It’s been either love the Drake or hate the Drake but despite this they’ve managed to pull away in the end each time. Now I’m obligated to be negative so obviously to me these games have largely boiled down to a battle of who’s gonna giveaway the ball less. Thankfully for the Pats the opposing quarterback has been having Chernobyl level meltdowns each week so it doesn’t matter how careless they’ve been with the ball. Which finally brings us to this week. Bo Nix would likely have been their most competent test but in a cruel twist of fate for Denver fans he’s done for the season. Instead we’re ironically given a Jarrett Stidham AFC Championship Game. I’m sure Sean Payton will pull out all the stops but there’s only so much lipstick you can put on a pig. Much like the other two matchups you could definitely argue Denver has the better defense but a lotta good that did the other teams. Now maybe I’m overcorrecting with these bets but at this point the Patriots have shown they deserve the respect. After the last two weeks it’s hard not to trust that Zach Kuhr and Vrabel will know how to expose a backup qb given what they did to Herbert and Stroud. So let’s get a little bold and hop on the escalator because I think we’ll also end up loving the Drake more than hating him as the Patriots punch their ticket to the Super Bowl.

Patriots -3.5 (-115)

Patriots -6.5 (+123)

Patriots -9.5 (+182)

Rams @ Seahawks (-2.5)

Now that I’m done with that rant I suppose we gotta talk about this game too. The only thing I really have to say is that I’m sorry to my cousin Jesse for picking against his beloved Rams, but it’s not something I do lightly. I feel like I could’ve easily ended up doing a write up that was similar to the Niners/Seahawks game. I could’ve talked about how these teams already had two close games this year and split the regular season series but I fell for that trap once. Although the sample size is small the Seahawks have easily been the most impressive team so far in the playoffs. Again one game is all we have to go off of but my goodness what they did to the 49ers. So maybe I’m letting some recency bias sway my opinion but the only reason I’d have to pick against them is Sam Darnold. He’ll almost certainly need to do more than he did last week because Stafford will put up more of a fight than Purdy did. In the end this might be a close game if the former Jet makes it one but if he’s not seeing ghosts I could see another Seattle blow out on their way to Santa Clara. So once again Jesse I’m sorry it’s not personal, but I’m thinking it’s the Seahawks that get a Super Bowl rematch against the Pats not the Rams.

Seahawks -2.5 (-110)

Brady’s Parlay of the Day

The Parlay: Patriots -3.5, Rhamondre Stevenson 52+ Rush yds, Rams ML, Puka Nacua 100+ Receiving yards

The winning didn’t last long as we took another loss in the divisional round last week. Looking to get things back on track for the conference championship Sunday! For today’s parlay I will give you a winner for each game and a prop bet for each to combine into one bet. 

I know people will think this is a homer pick for leg number one but I really can’t see the patriots losing this game to Jarret Stidham. With that being said we are taking the Patriots with the spread to advance to the Super Bowl again for the first time since the 2018 season. 

Leg number two from the AFC side is Rhamondre Stevenson to rush for 52 plus yds. I look for Stevenson to be a major contributor to victory today and he’s typically good for at least one big chunk play. Bet on a big day for the Pats running back.

Now let’s get into the NFC game for legs three and four. I think this game will be very close and a fun one to watch for sure. I do expect the Rams to pull out the win this time though and set up a matchup of the top 2 MVP candidates in Santa Clara for all the marbles. I also expect if the Rams are to win Puka Nacua will be a big part of it and so we are going to bet him to have  100 plus receiving yards. 

Brady’s Parlay of the Day: Patriots -3.5, Rhamondre Stevenson 52+ Rush yds, Rams ML, Puka Nacua 100+ Receiving yards (+1053)

Divisional Weekend wraps up today people and full disclosure I woke up today feeling like a combination of Josh Allen’s postgame presser and Bo Nix’s ankle: defeated and broken. Not just because we had an 0-2 Saturday but also because I woke up feeling like death. So you’ll have to excuse me if the writing isn’t my best today but hopefully the picks are good. Now as I had mentioned we had a rough Saturday as neither pick ended up delivering. It started off with the Bills who certainly had their chances to win but 5 giveaways was one too many. Then there’s the pathetic Niners who quite literally lost the game and the cover in the first 13 seconds. Needless to say I would like things to go better today but given the morning I’m having I got a bad feeling about my picks. Thankfully Brady’s Parlay of Day is back again and hopefully can pick up my slack. As always the picks wait for no man and now there’s only 5 games left so let’s get into it.

Texans (+3) @ Patriots

Similar to the Bills/Broncos game I was torn about this one all week. I could easily see this going either way but eventually settled on the Texans. Both these teams played nearly identical games on Wild Card weekend with their defenses absolutely abusing the opposing quarterback on the way to seemingly easy wins. However even though both these games ended up being blowouts the box score didn’t tell the full story. On offense both these teams also struggled to protect their own QB with Stroud and Maye taking numerous sacks and having multiple turnovers. So in the end what had me leaning Houston was they have a slightly better defense and that’s about it. The weather is also gross so I can see this being another sloppy one. So just like last week don’t worry Pats fans you got someone to yell at today because I’m riding with H-Town.

Texans +3 (+102)

Rams (-6.5) @ Bears

Since I’m running low on effort and mental energy I’ll keep it brief. I hate Ben Johnson and think Caleb Williams stinks half the time. I just think their luck with these improbable comebacks has to dry up and I moved the spread because it needed some extra juice. I also backed the Rams because I don’t want my cousin Jesse mad at me so I’d rather be wrong than rile him up. So that’s the pick, lots of hate and a little bit of support for the big guy.

Rams -6.5 (+115)

Brady’s ParlayS of the Day

We finally got back in the win column last weekend and I’ve been hot with my bets overall so let’s keep it rolling for divisional round Sunday! I have two SGPs for you for today to change things up and give us a shot to make some good money today. 

First up is the Pats and Texans in what I think is going to be a close, low scoring, defensive battle. The Texans defense is legit and their offense is average at best especially now with the loss of Nico Collins. I expect a lot of kicking in this game so here’s the parlay.

AFC Parlay: Borregales 3+ FG made, Fairbairn 2+ FG made, Under 40.5 (+1000)

On the NFC side of things I’m expecting a lot  more offense in this one. Both teams put up high numbers in their wild card games and I expect that trend to continue today. I expect the Rams to pull this one out but I do think it will be close. 

NFC Parlay: Puka Nacua Anytime TD, Over 48.5, Bears +4.5 (+500)

If you want to get a little crazy and put them together it’s +6500. I won’t say I’ll recommend it but I also won’t say I’m not throwing 5$ on that haha

Divisional Weekend is here people and it’s gonna be hard to top the excitement that Wild Card Weekend provided. Admittedly I’ve been a little bit of a hater because Washington isn’t playing this year and I’ve been declaring all of these games crap. Making claims that it’s just a bunch of bad football that gets called entertaining because shenanigans and stupidity is keeping it close. But I’m sure you’ve had enough of my salt this season and I’m certainly not gonna admit I’m wrong so let’s just move things along to the recap of the Monday Night game. Now I don’t wanna say I nailed it but the Texans sure did beat the crap out of Rodgers meaning both our bets hit with ease in the end. Maybe I could’ve moved the line even more but after the season we’ve had you’ll excuse me for playing it safe. Thanks to that 2-0 Monday we did end up with a 4-3 record on the weekend and even our guest pick nailed their parlay so the playoffs are off to a good start. However with the Wild Card round in the rearview that means we’ve only got 7 games left to the season so without further ado let’s get into it.

Bills (ML) @ Broncos

I won’t lie this should be a night game because I think we’re starting off the Divisional Round with arguably the best matchup of the weekend. That said just because I think it’ll be a great game doesn’t make it any easy one to pick. I’ve been torn all week on whether I want to keep being a Boliever or if I’ll keep circling the wagons. In the end I gotta keep picking with my plums and they’re saying to back Buffalo. No denying the Denver’s defense is tough and no one wants to play at Mile High but I gotta go with the more proven QB in the end. Sure Josh Allen’s pregnant wife Hailee Steinfeld is secretly rooting for the Broncos but that just means he’s already good at screwing Broncos’ fans.

Bills ML (+100)

49ers (+7) @ Seahawks

So we go from the matchup that I find the most interesting to the game I wouldn’t mind skipping. Essentially nothing about this rivalry or these teams interest me in the slightest. Both the QBs bore the crap out of me, I absolutely can’t stand Kyle Shanahan and half the time I can’t remember who even coaches the Seahawks. Honestly my only rooting interest in this game is for Trent Williams and if I’m tuning in to watch a left tackle that says something. My apathy about this game aside, I gotta lean towards the team getting more points. These teams split their regular season series which included the Niners winning in Seattle so +7 seems a bit too much for what I’m figuring should be a close one. I wish I was bold enough to say bet the ML but we’re gonna just take the points this time.

49ers +7 (-115)

Wild Card Weekend is coming to an end people and what a historically dramatic weekend it was. All the excitement from Saturday carried right over into Sunday and delivered us two more games that were decided on the final possession. To put in perspective how crazy it’s been we’ve already had a record-setting twelve 4th quarter lead changes which is the most in any postseason round and we’ve still got one game to go. This historic level of drama unfortunately didn’t do my picks many favors but it’s hard to complain when the games were so entertaining. Sure I was wrong about the Eagles -6 but the silver-lining is that they lost outright and that’s a win for everyone except the creatures of Philly. Then for the night game the one matchup I said would be close of course ended up being the one with the least drama. Jim Harbaugh just stood there with his mouth hanging wide open refusing to adjust as he watched Herbert get murdered all night. Fortunately we weren’t wrong about everything as Josh Allen and the Bills managed to take care of business for Bick’s Picks AND Brady’s Parlay of the Day. Speaking of BPOTD he’s finally back to his winning ways as he got a nice win with his first postseason parlay. Now as several of you seemed all too eager to point out Bick’s Picks is off to a 2-3 start to the playoffs but we’ve got one more game to save Wild Card Weekend so let’s get into it.

Texans (-3,-6.5) @ Steelers

Yup that’s right we’re doubling down and moving the line for this one. Since the matchups came out I had this one circled from the beginning as the blow out of Wild Card Weekend. Let’s be honest the Steelers shouldn’t even be here and I think the Texans remind everyone of that tonight. Pretty much everyone besides a loyal few have had enough of Rodgers and I think Will Anderson Jr and company will make him wish that Tyler Loop actually made that kick. So let’s not overthink this and join me in betting that Houston beats the crap out of that ayahuasca doofus.

Texans -3 (-105)

Texans -6.5 (+155)

Wild Card Weekend continues people and even though not all our bets hit it’s hard to deny that we’ve gotten off to an entertaining start. Somehow both games on Saturday ended up being close contests that came down to the final possession. Now I say “somehow” because honestly despite being entertaining games in the end they probably both should’ve been blowouts. However thanks to gross turnovers, head scratching play calls, ill-advised 4th down attempts and some truly egregious clock management we got some close ones. Thankfully some of these shenanigans worked out in our favor as we started the playoffs 1-1 here at Bick’s Picks. For the first game the Rams playing with their food and letting the Panthers hang around made the -10 a bad bet that some of you were all too quick to point out. As for the night game even though the Bears won and my write up was spot on, it’s hard for me to be too cocky because holy hell did the Green Bay blow it. Chicago had absolutely no business winning that game but I suppose nonsense like this defined the regular season so why wouldn’t it carry over into the playoffs. That’s enough about yesterday though we’ve got arguably an even better slate of games today and Brady’s Parlay of the Day is making their postseason debut so let’s get into it.

Bills (ML) @ Jaguars

Unlike yesterday where I thought we were starting off with the worst game, today I think we’re getting the best game out the gate. Of course now that I say that this will end up being our first blowout because that’s the kind of unpredictable season that it’s been. Now for the pick itself it simply comes down to one thing for me: postseason experience. Josh Allen and Buffalo have been here and they’ve got their sights set further than the Wild Card round especially since most of the usual suspects aren’t standing his way. Now I don’t wanna whistle right past the Jags entirely because they’re one of the hottest teams in football and that defense is scarier than they get credit for. However I’ve called Trevor Lawrence a drunken baby giraffe too many times to back him against my supposed doppelganger so let’s circle the wagons and hope to start the day with a win for Bills Mafia.

Bills ML (+102)

49ers @ Eagles (-6)

Fuck the Eagles. Okay now that I got that out of the way I’m gonna choose to hate myself today because I’m still picking them. Safe to say I have no love for Philly and frankly I’m a tad surprised this spread is so big given their inconsistency this year. During the regular season a spread like that might give me pause but as I’ve been saying it’s all plums in the playoffs and I can’t shake the feeling they’re gonna make Purdy look like butt. Maybe it’s a little recency bias with how the Niners looked against Seattle but I think the Iggles defense can do something similar. And that’s it. I’m not gonna say any more kind or positive words about the team I’m picking because it hurts my soul and goes against every fiber of my being. So let’s bet these illiterates to cover and if they don’t maybe they’ll just lose outright instead because I wouldn’t mind that either.

Eagles -6 (-108)

Brady’s Parlay of the Day

The Parlay: Bills ML, Saquon Barkley 90+ Rushing Yards, Patriots ML

Well we almost got back in the win column in the regular season finale as Isaiah made it likely for us to cash with his incredible grab on 4th down to set up the Ravens with an easy FG attempt to win the game, the division, and hit our parlay. It was all for not though as Tyler Loop did his best Billy Cundiff impression and wasn’t even close with his kick. If only the Ravens still let their scum bag players stick around Justin Tucker would have nailed it for sure but they had to turn over a new leaf and start doing the right thing I guess. Anyways it’s time for the playoffs and a clean slate so let’s try to get that win that’s been dodging us on Wild Card weekend.
Leg 1- The Bills and Jags meet in Jacksonville in the early game on Sunday. The Jags have been on fire lately but the playoff experience of Josh Allen makes me think the Bills should win this one. I expect it to be close but take the Bills moneyline.

Leg 2- The defending champs host the 49ers at home and the weather is looking bad for this one. To me that translates into a lot of running and we are going to take Barkley to finally breakout this year in the biggest game for Philly. Take Saquon to go over 90 rushing yards.

Leg 3- After 3 long years of misery the Patriots are back in the Playoffs! We get to host the Chargers at home to kick off our run and I expect the home team to get the job done in this one. Drake Maye is going to show the world why he is the MVP and lead the Patriots to their first postseason win since 2018. Take the Pats moneyline.

Brady’s Parlay of the Day: Bills ML, Saquon Barkley 90+ Rushing Yards, Patriots ML (+568)

Chargers (+3.5) @ Patriots

I’m just gonna say this felt like a lose-lose pick for me. For better or worse a large portion of our readers are Pats fans and you often like to give me grief no matter which way I bet you guys. I’m vilified for going against you or scolded for being a mush when I back them. A coward might avoid picking the team all together but honestly I embrace the criticism and complaints as they fuel the fire of my hot takes and biased opinions. That said I watch my fair share of New England football and that’s what influenced my pick. I won’t call them paper tigers or say this season is fool’s gold BUT I do think they have a tendency to keep things close against better competition. No denying they showed they can beat the bag out bad teams but that’s not what they face today. Sure the Chargers have their flaws but they have enough weapons on both sides to make this a game. Am I bold enough to say they’ll win outright? Of course not, but I could easily see this coming down to an Aurora Borealis field goal. So don’t worry Pats fans you got someone to yell at tonight because I’m backing the Bolts.

Chargers +3.5 (-105)

Wild Card Weekend is here people and let’s just say we’re not as fired up about the playoffs as we were last year. Don’t get me wrong we’ll be watching (and betting) on all these games but man oh man would it be a whole lot cooler if Washington was playing. Reading last year’s playoff blogs was a bittersweet reminder of how quickly things can change in the NFL. Now before we move on to the Saturday slate we got one more losing regular season recap to go over. We ended up finishing with another 1-2 week as we simply couldn’t get out of our own way this season at Bick’s Picks. Sure the Pats took care of business for the Lock but the rest of the picks were emblematic of the struggles we’ve had this season. The Saints and Falcons both started out slow before teasing us with some late scoring that wasn’t enough. And then the Dawg was another painful loss as the Chargers played with our emotions numerous times until coming up short of the cover in the end. Even Brady’s Parlay of the Day almost got a win last week but Tyler Loop decided he wanted a new head coach instead. Needless to say we’ve gotten really good at snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. That was the regular season though and believe it or not we actually have a winning record in the postseason here at Bick’s Picks. Over the two postseasons we’ve covered we’ve got a (18-14) record and although that might not be something to brag about it’s certainly better than what we’ve been doing lately. We’re hoping we can replicate some of that postseason success and no better time to start than arguably the best weekend of the playoffs. As a reminder for better or worse we pick all the games and this is only day 1 of 3 so let’s get into it.

Rams (-10) @ Panthers

Well I just talked about how great Wild Card Weekend is so of course the worst game on paper is how we get things started. However, it’s the playoffs and anything can happen nevermind the fact that the team that’s favored by double digits lost this same matchup earlier this season. That said try as I might, I can’t convince myself the Panthers could do it again or even cover for that matter. Frankly after the Sad Cats let me down numerous times I can’t pick them in this game. I told myself all my postseason picks were gonna be based on plums alone so no cute stats today. Although I’d really prefer an alt spread of -9.5 we’re not gonna start the postseason by moving lines. So we’re biting the bullet, picking the -10 and betting it’s a blowout.

Rams -10 (-108)

Packers @ Bears (ML)

Alright now that we got that out of the way we can cover a game that’s got some real juice. I’ll admit this one was a bit tough but not because I struggled to make a pick. I knew who I wanted all along. It’s more so I hate that I gotta pick either team. I’ve been on record that I’m no fan of Jordan Love. I don’t know if it’s lack of pocket presence or just his ill-advised throws off his back foot but something about his game just doesn’t pass my sniff test. On the flip side I’ve been even more critical of Caleb Williams. It’s not the painted nails or the fact he’s always gonna be compared to Jayden it’s because I think he’s a complete spaz. He’s got the talent to make almost any throw but he’s got this habit of making things so much harder than they need to be. And I don’t have enough time or words to describe my disdain for Ben Johnson so let’s just say I hate him. So now that I’ve aired my grievances let me tell you that I’m riding with Chicago anyways. As before, no cute stats or trends that I’m following this pick all plums. So throw on your Super Fan shades because we’re looking to make Coach Ditka proud by picking Da Bears to win outright.

Bears ML (+114)

Week 18 is here people and even though it hasn’t been a banner year for us here at Bick’s Picks it’s still bittersweet to say goodbye to the 2025 regular season. Sure being a Washington fan and our overall betting record being (23-35-1) have left a lot to be desired but that doesn’t mean we won’t miss football. You gotta remember the football season is like a big delicious sandwich you gotta cherish every bite because before you know it it’s gone. Now before we scarf down that last bite we as always have last week to recap. As expected the perfect 3-0 week has remained elusive but did manage to go 2-1. Now I shouldn’t sell the Over or the Lock short as both those bets hit with ease. The Saints and Titans understood their assignment as they cruised to that 39.5 total and ended up being the second highest scoring game on the slate. Then later on the Lock was also easy money as the Giants cruised to victory against a full tank mode Raiders. However it can never be just easy wins for us here because it turns out the Panthers were always the Sad Cats and not the Dawg we needed them to be. As for our guest pick, Brady’s Parlay of the Day almost got back in the win column but fell just short thanks to the Bills. With that recap out of the way we can finally enjoy the last bite of the regular season sandwich so let’s get into it.

Life’s Too Short to Bet the Under

Saints @ Falcons (43.5)

Now I didn’t really mention it but I’m sure if you’re reading this you’re aware that Week 18 is often a weird week. Every game is a divisional matchup so you’ve got teams with everything on the line or teams just desperate to get this season over with. You’ve got teams resting players for the playoffs and you got teams shutting people down looking ahead to next year. Needless to say it makes things even more unpredictable and often can spell disaster for an Over. Vegas even agrees as we’ve got 6 games on the slate with projected totals under 40. Now undoubtedly one or more of those games will hit the Over but I couldn’t talk myself into any of them because none have any real playoff implications. Now I know what you’re gonna say: “Wait a minute neither of these teams can make the playoffs” which is very true but in a gross twist of fate this game decides who manages to win the NFC South. I also like both these teams to show up and actually try to play football despite having nothing but pride and I’m sure some incentives on the line. The Saints are quietly on a win streak led by potential OROY Tyler Shough and on the flip side Bijan has been finishing the season like he’s the best back in football. Sure these teams are eliminated but my gut says that this game has the juice so let’s hope we get one more easy Over to end the regular season.

NO/ATL Over 43.5 (-118)

Fade Dawgs

Chargers (+14) @ Broncos

Similar to the Over the Dawg is a tricky bet to pick Week 18 because you gotta navigate a slate full of double digit spreads. There’s nearly 8 games with double digit spreads and some make sense while others are because there’s some roster nonsense going on. Just like those low totals one or more of these silly spreads will end up being a winning bet and I’m hoping this is the one. Yes I know the Chargers are sitting people but this isn’t the preseason so they’ll be forced to play some starters. Meanwhile although the Broncos are playing for the one seed there’s nothing they like more this season than close games. Sure Denver is 13-3 but they’re 2-9 against the spread as a favorite. Somehow someway Bo and the boys find a way to win but lord knows they like their fans to sweat it out. Oh and if those stats are convincing enough for you Jim Harbaugh is 10-0-1 against the spread vs the AFC West. So even though we’ve been Bolievers here I like the resting Chargers to cover this week.

Chargers +14 (-110)

Brady’s Parlay of the Day

The Parlay: Falcons ML, Hunter Henry 5+ Receptions, Ravens ML

One more try to end the regular season with a win. After a hot start to the season we haven’t hit on a parlay in some time, we are overdue for sure!

Leg 1: Falcons ruin the Bucs playoff hopes with a win over the Saints to give the Panthers the division. Take the Falcons moneyline

Leg 2: It’s incentive week to end the season so I wanted to do at least one for the parlay. We are going to go with Hunter Henry for 5+ catches as he cashes in on a $250,000 bonus against the Dolphins.

Leg 3: We will finish the regular season of BPOTD with the last game of the regular season. Ravens and Steelers battle on Sunday Night for the AFC North title. I like the Ravens to steal this one on the road in a close game. Take Baltimore ML.

Brady’s Parlay of the Day: Falcons ML, Hunter Henry 5+ Receptions, Ravens ML (+323)

Bick’s Stone Cold Lock of the Century of the Week

Dolphins @ Patriots (-13.5)

It took every little bit of self-restraint I have to not bet on Washington in some way for this final week of the season. But let’s be honest we’ve lost enough money this year and I have no confidence that we can cover +3.5 at Philly. As much as I hate the Eagles and even though they’re resting starters I just can’t. So instead I’m choosing to rile up Pats fans one last time this regular season. I’m also gonna call all of you at the same time though because despite all your bitching and me being a supposed mush the Patriots have been pretty darn good this season. We’ll see what happens in the playoffs but it’s still the regular season and I’m gonna bet this dumb spread whether you like it or not. Sure -13.5 is a dumb number but they took care of that easily last week when they dominated the Jets. I’m expecting the same situation today against the Fins who are likely sitting their two best players on offense in Achane and Waddle. Nevermind the fact the Fins are terrible in the cold under Mike McDaniel so I’m betting Vrabel ends the season with another blowout to keep the morale high heading into their postseason run. 

Patriots -13.5 (-108)

Week 17 is here people and I hope everyone had a Merry Christmas. As you’ll notice my gift to all of you was not doing any holiday picks this year and you’re welcome for that because our luck didn’t improve last week. Sure the Pats ended up winning outright for the Dawg which was a nice way to save the day but everything else was butt. First the Bills played with their food, dropping any chance the Lock had before the Texans would’ve blown it by allowing a career day to Genty. Then there’s the Over which literally hit but after some phantom flag on Jeffery Simmons the points were taken off the board and the Titans settled for a field goal. Even when our picks hit somehow the NFL finds a way to screw us. Unfortunately Brady’s Parlay of the Day didn’t fare any better but maybe he can snag a win down the stretch. Either way we’ve mercifully only got two weeks of the regular season left so let’s get into it.

Life’s Too Short to Bet the Under

Saints @ Titans (39.5)

I know I know I’m back picking the lowly Titans but after the NFL rigged the end of their last game it surely can’t happen again right? After all there’s an old saying in Tennessee, I know it’s in New England, probably in Tennessee that says, ‘Fool me once, shame on…shame on you. Fool me you can’t get fooled again.’ With those wise words how could this Over possibly come up short. So look for these two out of contention teams to put up enough points to keep me from looking like a fool again.

NO/TEN Over 39.5 (-108)

Fade Dawgs

Seahawks @ Panthers (+6.5)

Not gonna lie, picking a Dawg today wasn’t easy. Of course there will be an upset today but with this small slate because of all the Christmas games the options are limited. It doesn’t help that at first glance I liked a lot of the favorites too. But what are we gonna do, change the pick? That’s crazy talk. I mean come on, the formula has worked so well for us this season right? Sarcasm and lack of confidence aside this is the Dawg I liked the most. The Panthers have been the scrappiest underdogs this season with 8 of their wins coming as a Dawg. One more win and they break the record for most in a season. Now although I think Carolina is capable of winning outright to break that record we simply need them to keep it close. No denying the Seahawks are a wagon this year but every once in a while Darnold shows that he’s still got that Jet in him. So I’m betting that we get the Carolina Reapers and not the Sad Cats today.

Panthers +6.5 (+100)

Brady’s Parlay of the Day

The Parlay: Bills -1.5, Jaguars -5.5, 49ers -2.5

Let’s try for another win before the season ends. It’s been far too long and I’m tired of losing!

Leg 1: Bills over the Eagles. The Eagles already locked up the East and the Bills need to win to stay in the division race. Take the Bills -1.5.

Leg 2: The Philip Rivers experiment hasn’t worked and the Jags are on fire coming off a big win over Denver. Take the Jags -5.5.

Leg 3: Sunday Night Football features two playoff bound teams in the Bears and the 49ers. One team is a contender and the other is a pretender. Take the contender 49ers -2.5.

Brady’s Parlay of the Day: Bills -1.5, Jaguars -5.5, 49ers -2.5 (+452)

Bick’s Stone Cold Lock of the Century of the Week

Giants (-3) @ Raiders

Let’s just point out the obvious: the Lock has been anything but. In fact in some cases it’s been downright impressive how wrong we’ve been. So in order to avoid me being upset about a good team blowing it, why not look to a crap team to do something and if they fail oh well. Which brings us to the Tank Bowl. Both the Giants and the Raiders are the worst of the worst this season and somehow the schedule has aligned for them to play with the number 1 pick on the line. As it stands New York is in the driver’s seat for the 1st overall pick and Vegas seems aware. After annoyingly almost winning against the Texans someone in the organization well enough of that we’re shutting it down. They put Brock Bowers on IR with a sore knee and told Maxx Crosby he was done too. The latter didn’t seem all too thrilled about this decision which leads me to think that things could get extra ugly these last two games for Vegas. It’s not often teams so blatantly pack up shop for the season and I think the Giants are the type of team to go out and win a meaningless game even if it hurts their draft position. So join me in betting that the team that isn’t openly quitting will win and if they don’t we can at least laugh at how bad New York is.

Giants -3 (+100)

Week 16 is here people and much like the Commanders and the once mighty Chiefs we’re officially playing out the string here at Bick’s Picks. After another disappointing 1-2 week we’ve reached the point where a winning record is out of reach. Honestly I’d be more annoyed if we were close but recently I’ve been impressed with how bad our picks have been. Somehow back to back weeks we picked a team to win outright for the Lock who ended up getting shutout. Meanwhile although I feel like watching Grandpa Rivers lived up to the hype of course that game failed to hit the Over. Fortunately being a Boliever managed to save the week as the Broncos kept on streaking winning their 11th game in a row. As for our guest pick I’m sure he’d rather I skip their recap because Brady’s Parlay of the Day continues to be cursed. Now despite being guaranteed losers for the 2025 regular season there will be no white-flag 4th quarter punts so let’s get into. 

Life’s Too Short to Bet the Under

Chiefs @ Titans (37.5)

You might’ve thought I would’ve learned my lesson chasing a low total last week but here we are again. Frankly numbers like this are too low for me to ignore. Sure Mahomes is dead and sure the Titans are the Titans, but come on a total this low has to hit right? Tennessee is definitely one of the worst teams in the league, but they’ve been frisky lately putting up at least 24 points 3 of the last 4 weeks. On the other side I gotta think KC shows a little pride with Minshew under center and gives us something towards the total. I won’t deny that on paper Vegas is right to have this number this low but in the end I think it’s one that we don’t sweat out.

KC/TEN Over 37.5 (-110)

Fade Dawgs

Patriots (+3) @ Ravens

Despite the protests of Pats this pick is happening. Honestly I had to feature this game in some way as I’m watching with fans from both sides. And after I picked the Ravens to lose outright last week I can’t suddenly change my opinion that I think they’re cooked for 2025. Sure whistling past that Joe Burrow interview was on me, but New England in not Cinci. After blowing that game against Buffalo I think that Vrabel is gonna light a bonfire under everyone’s ass so Maye and company should come out swinging. Sure they’re likely to let Baltimore comeback in the 2nd Half but either way I think +3 is just enough to cover the outcome of this game. So let’s bet that this Patriots’ season truly isn’t fool’s gold.

Patriots +3 (+100)

Brady’s Parlay of the Day

The Parlay: Josh Allen ATD, Jayhmir Gibbs 110+ Rush & Receiving Yards, Drake Maye 250+ Passing Yards

Short and sweet this week the NFL doesn’t make any sense this year, I suck but I guess we will give this another go. 

Josh Allen Anytime TD 

Jahmyr Gibbs 110+ Rush & Receiving Yards

Drake Maye 250+ Passing Yards

There it is bet at your own risk.

Brady’s Parlay of the Day: Josh Allen ATD, Jahmyr Gibbs 110+ Rush & Receiving Yards, Drake Maye 250+ Passing Yards (+526)

Bick’s Stone Cold Locks of the Century of the Week

Bills (-6.5) @ Browns & Raiders @ Texans (-13.5) 

Yea yea I know alt spreads are fake bets but I really gotta make an effort to avoid the shutout three-peat. At this point in the season double digit spreads exist for a reason as the Bills and Texans should dominate their matchups. The Raiders are truly god awful and the Browns are still the Browns no matter how many people want to vote Shedeur to the Pro Bowl. I will say I think the Browns are more likely to make things interesting at home which is why I teased that spread a little more but in the end a touchdown should be plenty to cover. It certainly isn’t the sexiest bet but at this point we’re just trying to avoid being an embarrassment. However if either of these teams manage to get shutout I really gotta find a way to harness this bad luck I’ve got. So sorry in advance to Bills Mafia and the Texans’ fan for this one.

Parlay: Bills -6.5 & Texans -13.5 (+166)