I think I might start titling these posts “Picks You Should Fade.” Because had you been doing that the last two weeks you would’ve made some serious cash. So what are we rewarded with this Thursday? A double digit spread! We know how much I love those. Time to try and make sense of it.

Giants vs. 49ers (-10) (44)

I’m not really sure what to make of the Giants at this point. They got absolutely decimated for the first six quarters of the season. Then they made a furious comeback to win a game they were surely all but dead in, albeit against one of the worst teams in the league. The Niners on the other hand have looked very good this year, and would be 2-0 ATS if the spread god Sean McVay hadn’t kicked a meaningless field goal for the cover as time expired last weekend. I always tend to take the dog in situations like this, but the Giants aren’t really doing it for me right now. They’ll also be without Saquon Barkley for this one and without him I’m not sure how much offense they can muster especially against San Francisco. Daniel Jones has been, umm, pretty bad too outside of a couple drives at the end of the Cardinals game. The 49ers have been humming to this point, and even though I could probably QB them to a win with their weapons, Brock Purdy has looked like every bit of a guy they can win a Super Bowl with. The total here doesn’t really speak to me either so, I’m going to do something I don’t do a lot and that’s back a double digit favorite.

The Play: 49ers -10

Happy Week 2 Monday Night doubleheader day. Tonight we get two divisional matchups to close out what has been an entertaining week overall. I’ll be giving a pick for each game. Let’s get started.

Saints (-3) vs. Panthers (39.5)

I feel like people are going to hammer the Saints at only a field goal here, but I don’t see it. They’re on the road and didn’t particularly inspire too much confidence last week. I know the Panthers weren’t great also, but Bryce Young’s home debut should have the team and crowd fired up and ready to play. The Saints will still be without Alvin Kamara as well which makes their offense much less dynamic. I expect a sloppy game and the Panthers to find their way to a cover.

The Play: Panthers +3

Browns (-2.5) vs. Steelers (38.5)

This line is tough. I like Tomlin a lot as a home underdog, but I’d like to see it climb up to at least 3 points to make me feel more confident. That being the case I think the under has some good value here. The Steelers defense can’t possibly be as bad as they were last week, and the Browns will probably run the ball a lot and chew the clock. It’s not the type of fun bet I like to make for a primetime game like this, but I think points will be hard to come by tonight. I lean Steelers spread, but I’m betting the under.

The Play: Under 38.5

After a dreadful Week 1 I found myself on the right side Thursday Night’s spread. Hopefully that is a sign of things to come, but you never know especially when you suck at gambling like I do.

Packers vs. Falcons (-1.5)

I’m not sure what it is, but I like the Falcons a lot this year. I think they even have a chance to win the South if things break their way. As for this game though, I think Atlanta is going to run all over the Packers defense Sunday. I know Jordan Love looked good last weekend, but I’m expecting a bit of regression back to the mean this week for him, and the Green Bay offense. I like the spread where its at too. Less than a field goal bodes well for the Falcons in what most likely will be a close game.

Seahawks vs Lions (Over 47)

This theoretically should be a fun over. The Lions offense at home indoors should put be able to up some serious points. The Seahawks offense cannot possibly be as bad as they were last week. It doesn’t take much to get to 47. One good quarter should put us on pace and even a bad one won’t cripple you. The last two times these teams met they have scored at least 80 combined points. That has never happened between the same two teams in three straight meetings. We don’t need that though we just have to get to 48.

Commanders vs. Broncos (Under 38.5)

There’s no way this isn’t a snooze fest of a game. Both teams have good defenses and either somewhat inept (Washington) or completely inept (Denver) offenses. I like Washington to win in a close low scoring game. For what it’s worth I like the Commanders +3.5 as well, but they burned me last week and I think the under is the safer play here.

Vikings vs. Eagles (-6.5) (48.5)

I am a broken man after Week 1. That was one of, if not my worst, week since I started writing these. So I’d say whatever I pick here you should probably fade. Anyways, I got chance to watch the entirety of the Eagles game on Sunday against the Patriots and they played about one good quarter and then hung on for dear life to win the game. Minnesota on the other hand was on the losing side of my only win last week against Tampa Bay. I’m conflicted here because this seems like a prime bounce back spot for the Vikings, but it could also be a chance for the Eagles to get back on track and play a complete game. Minnesota did outgain Tampa last week and the Eagles were outgained by New England. I feel like with the line sitting up at 6.5 you’re better off taking the dog and hoping for a close game. I don’t ever advocate for it, but I’m doing it. We’re taking Prime Time Kirk. What a way to try and get back on track.

The Play: Vikings +6.5

So, I’m just going to say it, we’re not off to a great start. 1-4 on the season is not ideally how I would’ve liked to start my season, but here we are. I’ve been pretty vocal about who I’m backing in this game so I’ll keep this post short and sweet.

Bills (-2) vs. Jets (44.5)

I need a big win tonight. Plain and simple. I am all over the Bills in this game. I think the Jets will be a competitive team this year, but I also think because there are a lot of new faces on that team (QB included) it may take a few weeks for them to gel. I’m also just an Aaron Rodgers hater and I’m a Jets hater. I’m not letting those factors blind me with this bet though. I think the Bills as less than a field goal favorites is crazy value. This is a team that won 13 games last year and didn’t lose much. The Jets have to prove it to me and until they do I’m not buying them. Bills roll tonight.

It’s finally time for the first full slate of Sunday games for the year and I couldn’t be more ecstatic. Like I mentioned in Thursday’s post I’m going to adjusting the format slightly this year. Instead of picking one favorite, underdog, over, under, and lock I’m just going to be giving my best bet’s for the week whatever they may be. Week 1 is always tricky to forecast so I have my work cut out for me here, but let’s get into it.

Patriots (+4) vs. Eagles

How could we not start off with one of Charlie Murphy’s Habitual Line Steppers of the Week? As crazy as it sounds this feels like a Week 1 trap game for the Eagles. They are coming off and incredible season that saw them fall just short in the Super Bowl and the Patriots missed the playoffs going 8-9 last season. For some reason though I think the Pats are going to be feisty in this one. An improved offense in terms of weapons and a new OC should work wonders for Mac Jones. Yes, the offensive line is going to be an issue, but they weren’t full healthy this preseason so I expect them to look at least marginally better as a unit. I think a little Super Bowl hangover is also in the cards for the Eagles as well. On a day where the Patriots honor Tom Brady they get back to doing what they did for 20 years with him under center. Win.

Commanders (-7) vs. Cardinals

The Cardinals come into this season in one of the more obvious “tank modes” in recent history. With Caleb Williams primed to be the number one overall pick and the team seemingly out on Kyler Murray at this point it all adds up. Sometimes teams in this spot come out and surprise their opponents in Week 1. I think back to the Jaguars beating the Colts in Week 1 a couple years ago only to finish the season 1-15. I just don’t see that happening here and I think this line is a bit too low especially with Josh Dobbs at QB. After a couple games I think we’ll start to see Cardinals lines starting to sit closer to 10. The Commanders are going to be a tough out this year too. Maybe not a playoff team per say, but competitive. They have to have this game if they think they’re going to make a run at the playoffs and they should play like it. There’s no reason they can’t win by more than a score here.

Buccaneers (+5.5) vs. Vikings

This is easily the grossest bet I’m going to make this week, but I like it for some reason. The Vikings won a ton of one score games last year and the Bucs still have the remnants of a decent roster. Baker Mayfield tends to pull shit out of his ass from time to time as well. This Bucs team kind of reminds me of the Sam Darnold Panthers from a couple years ago. They started out hot at 3-0 and then regressed back to what we thought they were. I think Tampa could get hot early in a bad division and then come back down to earth. This feels like a close game regardless. Someone wins by a field goal. Bucs cover.

Texans (+10) vs. Ravens

I could be completely out of bounds on this one, but it just feels like Lamar Jackson’s teams have tended to play inferior teams closely time after time. The Texans with a new head coach and their new franchise QB should be motivated to come out and play a competitive game on Sunday. I think DeMeco Ryans will have some tricks up his sleeve on how to handle Lamar as well. Texans will keep it close and the Ravens will pull it out late, but by less than 10. Texans cover.

It’s finally time to kick off the 2023-24 NFL season and you know what that means? Time to start (hopefully) giving out some winners. I am changing the format up a little bit for this season too. For standalone games I will only be giving out one pick whether that’s against the spread or a total. For Sundays I will be picking somewhere between three and five games most weeks aka my “best bets” for the weekend. I won’t be doing one of each like in the past, but don’t worry there will still be plenty of Charlie Murphy’s Habitual Line Steppers on the board.

So, now that’s out of the way let’s get into the season opener.

Lions vs. Chiefs (-4.5) (52.5)

This line has swung two points in the last day or two with news of Travis Kelce’s injury, and potential to miss this game, as well as Chris Jones’ contract situation keeping him out of this one. With the Chiefs second and third best players out or potentially out for the game it makes the Lions all the more enticing. Detroit (along with the Jets) have been the talk of the offseason as teams ready to take that leap into the playoff picture. Well what a test the Lions get in Week 1 with the defending Super Bowl Champs. I do like what they were able to do in the draft adding to their offense with Jahmyr Gibbs and Sam LaPorta to go along with an already strong receiving corps. I also love Dan Campbell and his ability to motivate, but we are talking about going up against Patrick Mahomes here. Like I said, the Chiefs second and third best players are likely out for this one, but their best player (and the best player in the league) will still be on the field tonight. Had Kelce and Jones been playing, and the line was still at -6.5, I think I still would have went Chiefs. Now with it down at -4.5 even with some of their best players out I still like Kansas City tonight. I have a feeling a lot of casual bettors (which I am one of) are going to be heavily on the Lions tonight, and who can blame them? It’s the more fun bet for sure, but we’re trying to make money here. As much as I’d love to root for the Lions tonight I have to go with my gut on this one.

The Play: Chiefs -4.5

Kansas City Chiefs (14-3) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (14-3)

Spread: Eagles (-1.5) Total: (51)

One more NFL gambling blog for the season and it’s the most important pick of the year. Super Bowl 57 is finally here and what a game it should be. There are a lot of factors at play that make this game difficult to handicap. Let’s get into my pick for the spread and I’ll even throw out some props that I like at the end.

The Eagles have been the public betting favorite since the first lines went up after the AFC Championship game. They actually opened as 2 point underdogs, and so much money came in on them it flipped the line by the morning which has now settled at 1.5. This just feels eerily similar to the Bengals game for the Chiefs though. A hotshot team with a young QB, coming off a dominant win over a very good opponent gets all the love from the public. I don’t think I can make the same mistake again. Sure, the Chiefs have been horrendous ATS this year (7-11-1), but that’s mostly been due to them being favored by a large margin and not covering in a win. I understand the Chiefs are banged up too, but I still don’t see why we should be giving Patrick Mahomes any points in any game. As an underdog he is 7-1-1 ATS and 6-3 SU in 9 starts. Every time I think of a reason why the Eagles could win the game in my head my counterpoint is always “Patrick Mahomes.”

As for the rest of the game it’s tough to ignore the Eagles talent across the board. There’s no denying the names they have, but are we just going to forget the fact that the Chiefs defense only gave up 20 points to the Bengals two weeks ago? I mean just matching up offenses the Bengals are better at QB, RB, and WR. TE is a slight lean towards Philly and the offensive line is a runaway by the Eagles. I think people are underestimating what the Kansas City defense can do. When you look at the Chiefs too, especially on offense, they have guys that have been there before in big games and that experience could make a difference late in the game. It goes without saying, but the Chiefs also have the advantage at head coach as well. I don’t want to look back on this game and think to myself “why did I bet against Mahomes getting points?” Like I said earlier I’m not making that mistake again. I see Mahomes leading a late scoring drive to lift Kansas City to victory.

The Play: Chiefs +1.5

Final Prediction

Chiefs 23 Eagles 20

Props to Think About

For what it’s worth I like the Under in this game as well. I probably won’t bet it, but this total is sitting all the way up at 51 and I expect this game to be played tight especially early on. The Eagles also run a lot which lends to the under.

• Isiah Pacheco Any Time Touchdown (+120)
• Isiah Pacheco At Least 12 Carries (-106)
• Boston Scott Any Time Touchdown (+450)
• Over 3.5 Field Goals (+130)
• Kansas City Longest Punt Over 56.5 (+100)
• Patrick Mahomes Any Time Touchdown (+400)