Welcome to my NFL Week 3 betting guide. Each week we are going to pick one favorite, one underdog (AKA Charlie Murphy’s Habitual Line Stepper of the Week), one over, one under, and we’ll cap it off with my lock of the week. I finished 3-2 again last week let’s see if we can keep the momentum going for another positive week.

Favorite

Raiders (-1.5) vs. Titans

Here we have two teams looking to avoid an 0-3 start. The difference is one has looked significantly better than the other. The Titans we’re abysmal on Monday Night in Buffalo while the Raiders blew a multiple score lead in the second half against the Cardinals. Had the Raiders closed out the victory on Sunday I think this line would’ve moved slightly more in their favor. The Titans though have not done themselves any favors losing to the Giants Week 1 and getting their doors blown off by the Bills in Week 2. Could the latter have been a product of facing a very good team? Yes, of course, but to lose by 34 is a different story. They have not moved the ball well offensively too and that includes Derrick Henry. The Ryan Tannehill era might be coming to an end and I think we keep fading the Titans, especially with the line at less than a field goal, until the bookmakers catch up to them. You have to go Raiders here it’s time they get on track this season.

Charlie Murphy’s Habitual Line Stepper of the Week (Underdog)

Lions (+6) vs. Vikings

This feels like it could be a trap, but if it is I’m going to fall for it. The Lions have looked good the last couple of weeks and the Vikings did not on Monday Night. The Lions have also been cover machines under Dan Campbell as well going 13-6 ATS since the start of last season. This line being at 6 seems a little high based of last week. I think we’re looking at more of a field goal game in this one. The Lions were able to cover against the Eagles something the Vikings were unable to do as well. My only hang up here is 1:00 Kirk Cousins. I correctly predicted that primetime Kirk would shine through on Monday, but I’m hoping that going against him in a game nobody’s watching doesn’t come back to bite me. We all know that’s when Kirk is at his best, but we ride with Man Campbell and the Lions.

Over

Bengals vs. Jets (44.5)

In what could be Joe Flacco’s last hurrah as a starter this season this game figures to be a high scoring affair. I’m curious as to why the total is so low here. The Bengals couldn’t be more due for an offensive explosion and the Jets defense hasn’t necessarily been lockdown through two weeks. The Jets on the other hand have aired it out with Flacco the last two week including scoring 31 in a come from behind victory last week. Six touchdowns and a field goal gets us there and I think that’s more than possible. Let’s see some points.

Under

Falcons vs. Seahawks (42)

I said it last week, but I think Seattle is going to be a big under team this year. The under is 2-0 in Seahawks games so far this year. Their defense is good enough to keep the opposing offense in check, but their offense won’t put up a ton of points of their own. They haven’t scored an offensive touchdown in their last six quarters as well. The Falcons offense could put up some points, but I think the Seahawks will muck the game up enough to keep this low scoring. I’m thinking this finishes as a 17-14 or 20-17 type of game.

Lock of the Week

Chiefs (-5.5) vs. Colts

I don’t think I can call this segment my lock of the week anymore considering it’s 0-2 to start the season so, I might have to start workshopping some new titles for this pick. Anyways, what better way to get back on track with my lock of the week than picking Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs. This seems way too obvious though. The Colts have looked like complete dogshit through two weeks so that means Matt Ryan will probably look like 2016 MVP Matt Ryan because I’m betting against them. I just don’t see how the Chiefs don’t come out and absolutely roll them though. As long as Mahomes stops throwing the ball to the other team (he had 4 INTs last week by my count 2 overturned by penalties and 2 dropped) I think we’ll be alright here. Over 90% of the bets and money is on Kansas City. I’m not overthinking this though, let’s cash the lock of the week for the first time this year.

Week 3 kicks off with an AFC North grudge match between the Steelers and the Browns. Both teams are coming off losses in Week 2 although the Browns loss was a bit more devastating. Which team gets back on track Thursday Night? Let’s find out.

The Spread: Browns -4.5

I think it’s time I get back to my roots. I’ve been leaning heavy on the favorites with the last few picks I’ve made and it’s about time I get back to picking dogs. I think this will be a close game and I like the fact that I get more than a field goal as a cushion taking the Steelers here. The Browns will also be without Jadeveon Clowney and potentially Myles Garrett as well. My only worries picking the Steelers are that they’ve had trouble with the run and the offense hasn’t moved the ball well through two weeks. My first concern worries me a bit more though. Nick Chubb is second in the league in rushing through two games and Kareem Hunt has over 100 yards as well. If the Steelers defense can slow down the Browns rushing attack in any way and force Jacoby Brissett to throw more it’ll only benefit them. Turnovers are going to be key for the Steelers too. If they are able to win the turnover battle and give Mitchell Trubisky and their offense shorter fields to work with I think they can win the game. The same is true the other way as well. If Trubisky can take care of the ball it bodes well for Pittsburgh. This line was as high as 5.5 at one point and has come down as the majority of the bets and the money are coming in on Pittsburgh. I think either team can win here and my guess is it will be within a field goal. That means the Steelers cover either way so you know what the play is.

The Play: Steelers +4.5

Over/Under 38.5

I’m going to keep rolling with the trends on this one. The under is 6-1 in primetime this season and 22-10 overall. This is a low number, but I think the Steelers are going to be an under team this year. Their style of play lends to it. They’re going to move the ball slowly with run plays and short passes. They also play good defense and will stick around in a lot of close games because of it. The picks for this one are slightly more on the over, but the money is on the under at 63%. It isn’t incredibly encouraging, but I haven’t been on my game with overs this year so I’m going to fade myself and take the under here.

The Play: Under 38.5

Final Prediction

With my earlier predictions of Steelers +4.5 and Under 38.5 give me the Steelers 17-16.

Tonight we get a double header for Monday Night Football. Now normally for the standalone primetime games I’ll pick the spread and the total. For this week we are just going to look at the spreads though. We’ll start with the Bills and Titans and finish with the Eagles and Vikings.

Bills (-10) vs. Titans (+10)

I’ve been having trouble with this one all week. All I keep thinking is that 10 points is too many for a team like Tennessee that is talented and will control the ball and burn the clock. Then I think about what Buffalo did to the Rams last week and I think that we could be looking at a blowout here. Regardless of the spread, I see the Bills winning and I do think this line is inflated a bit due to what happened last week. I just can’t see myself going against the Bills right now though. All it takes is for Josh Allen to put up a game sealing touchdown in a one score game to get this to double digits and a cover for the Bills. Just about 3/4 of the money has come in on Buffalo too. I hate doing this, but you have to roll with the Bills here until they show any sign of slowing down.

The Play: Bills -10

Eagles (-2.5) vs. Vikings (+2.5)

This has all the makings of a great game. Both these teams were impressive last week and seem to continue to be everyone’s dark horse Super Bowl picks. I buy what the Eagles are selling a little bit more than the Vikings though. Minnesota took advantage of a depleted receiving corps for Aaron Rodgers last week and I’d like to see where that momentum takes them this week. My guess is not very far because, that’s right you guessed it, they’re playing in primetime. We all know how Kirk Cousins fares in those games. Not well. The Eagles on the other hand may have only won by three against Detroit last week, but the Lions scored twice in the fourth quarter to close the gap. I think the home field advantage will help the Eagles out immensely. The Eagles also have two talented corners that will hopefully be able to slow down (not stop because that might be impossible) Justin Jefferson as well. I’m feeling a backbreaking interception late in the game for Kirk Cousins and the Eagles win by a score.

The Play: Eagles -2.5

Welcome to my NFL Week 2 betting guide. Each week we are going to pick one favorite, one underdog (AKA Charlie Murphy’s Habitual Line Stepper of the Week), one over, one under, and we’ll cap it off with my lock of the week. I finished 3-2 in Week 1 so here’s to another positive card in Week 2.

Favorite

Packers (-10) vs. Bears

I’m going to do something here that I hate and that’s take a double digit favorite. I just can’t possibly see the Packers playing as poorly as they did last week again. There is precedent for this too. If you remember last year the Packers got absolutely demolished by the Saints 38-3 in Week 1. They then came into Week 2 as double digit favorites against the Lions on Monday Night and covered. This feels like an eerily similar scenario. I know the offensive line is a question with both Tackles on the injury report and, of course, the fact that Aaron Rodgers has nobody throw to. Again though, I can’t help but feel like they run away with this game. Then you look at the Bears who are riding high off of an upset of the 49ers last week. They are in PRIME position for a letdown spot here. Especially because they just aren’t a good team. The other odd thing is while 74% of the wagers have been placed on the Bears the Packers have seen 77% of the money. The sharps know something the general public doesn’t and I’m going to roll with them and back the team poised for a blowout. On the road at Lambeau on Sunday Night Football has all the makings for Aaron Rodgers to put on a show and, let’s not forget how much he loves to embarrass the Bears. Give me the Packers by 17.

Charlie Murphy’s Habitual Line Stepper of the Week (Underdog)

Saints (+2.5) vs. Buccaneers

I know that Tom Brady is going to beat the Saints in the regular season at some point, but I really like the Saints as home dogs this week. The higher percentage of bets and money is still coming in on the Bucs so I’m holding out hope this line goes to 3 at some point. Regardless though I like what the Saints can do through the air now that Michael Thomas is back. Jameis Winston also looked great last year before getting injured in these teams first matchup last season. The Saints offense seemed to find their groove in the fourth quarter last week coming back to beat Atlanta. The Bucs on the other hand won easily, but seemed disjointed offensively especially early on settling for field goals. I think the Saints defense can continue to frustrate the Bucs and, I’m looking forward to the Mike Evans vs Marshon Lattimore matchup as well. Lattimore has had Evans number in the past and he figures to shadow him on Sunday as Chris Godwin is listed as questionable and doesn’t project to play while still nursing his hamstring injury from last week. I think if the Saints defense shows up Jameis and Co. will have no problem putting up enough points to get the job done.

Over

Commanders vs. Lions (48.5)

I like a few overs this week, but what I really like about this is that the number is a half point below 7 total touchdowns. I don’t think it’s out of the question to get that done. In fact, I think its quite doable. The Lions were part of the highest scoring game last week and are the kings of garbage time touchdowns. I also liked what I saw from Washington last week and I think they could quite easily put up 4 touchdowns again against a subpar Detroit defense. That means we would only need the Lions to score 3 to get to 49. The game is also in Detroit and I think the dome will lend itself to more scoring. For what it’s worth 85% of the money is on the over too.

Under

49ers vs. Seahawks (41)

These two teams seemed destined to compete in low scoring games this season. The Seahawks impressed on Monday Night besting the Broncos, but they didn’t score a single point in the second half. The Niners played in sloppy conditions in Chicago last week and were only able to muster 10 points. I expect San Francisco’s offense to wake up a bit, but I can’t see Seattle scoring much more than they did last week. This feels like a bounce-back spot for the 49ers. Their defense was able to hold the Bears in check for much of their game last week and I expect that to continue. Offensively I think they do just enough to win considering they’ll be down Elijah Mitchell and George Kittle is still banged up. I’ll go with a 24-13 final score for the under.

Lock of the Week

Bengals (-7) vs. Cowboys

Look, this is pretty simple. The Bengals need to come out and dominate the Cowboys after what happened to them last week. There’s blood in the water with Dallas now that Dak is down for the next few weeks and teams will look to take advantage. Cincy needs a get right game and this feels like the perfect spot to do it. Dallas was awful last week even when Dak was still playing. Give me the Bengals by double digits.

Week 2 kicks off with a doozy as the Chargers head out to Kansas City to take on the Chiefs. Both teams were impressive last week and we’ll see if they can keep that momentum rolling on a short week. Will the Chiefs offense continue to dominate or can the Chargers new look defense slow them down? Let’s take a look.

The Spread: Chiefs -4

This line continues to jump around. It started at 3 points in favor of Kansas City, but has now jumped up to 4. Yesterday it even got as high as 4.5. I’m guessing it’ll continue to move as we approach Thursday night, but for now I am going to base my pick off the current line. I think this has continued to swing more in favor of the Chiefs because the Chargers are dealing with two pretty significant injuries to WR Keenan Allen and CB J.C Jackson. They are both listed as questionable and I’m guessing once their status becomes official it will effect the final line. The Chiefs were no doubt impressive last week in their rout of the Cardinals, but I think that may have inflated this line a bit. The Chargers are still very good and although they may have slowed down a touch in the second half against the Raiders last week when Keenan Allen went out they absolutely can keep up with the Chiefs vaunted offense. The public is on the Chiefs at 76% and the handle is at 78%. I understand the hype for the Chiefs, but at the same time these two teams have played some very close games in the last two seasons including two OT games. Even with the Chargers injury problems they still have a top tier QB. I think they are able to keep this close enough to cover. Kansas City by a field goal sounds about right to me. I’d bet this down to +3.5 anything lower than that I’d be careful taking the Chargers. We ride with the dogs again.

The Play: Chargers +4

Over/Under 54

This is brutal for me. My heart is telling me to take the over and my brain is saying under. Last year I tried to big brain myself and I took the under in their Week 15 matchup. That line was also at 54 and there were only 27 points scored after 3 quarters. Well wouldn’t you know these two offenses put on a clinic in the 4th quarter totaling 29 points and hitting the over. I’m not letting that happen again. That’s right no analytics where I pretend like I know what I’m talking about here. This is straight up manalytics. A personal revenge over if you will. Let’s go.

The Play: Over 54

Final Prediction

With my earlier prediction of Chargers +4 and Over 54 give me the Chiefs 33-30 in OT.

We finish up Week 1 with Russell Wilson returning home to Seattle in his first game as a Bronco. The question here is can the Seahawks hang around with the Denver’s new found offensive firepower? Let’s find out.

The Spread: Broncos -6.5

This line has jumped around a lot but currently sits at 6.5. I’m not particularly high on either of these teams so it’s tough for me to gauge where this game is going to go. On one hand, it seems like a surefire lock that Denver will run Seattle out of their own building. On the other, it’s hard to think that with a totally new QB, Head Coach, and offensive system that Denver is going to waltz into the 12th man and dominate. I think a slow start for the Broncos is very much within the cards. If Geno Smith can hang onto the ball and not give Denver any short fields they should be able to stick around in this one. From what I’ve seen 78% of the total bets have come in on the Broncos, but only 58% of the money. This opened up as a 4 point spread and the amount of bettors on the Broncos have pushed the line between 2 and 3 points depending on where you look. I think you have to take Seattle here with the cushion that was given by the amount of people taking the Broncos. This will be a tough one to watch if it gets out of hand, but we’re riding with the 12th man.

The Play: Seahawks +6.5

Over/Under 43.5

This pick in my brain basically comes down to who I’m taking with the spread. If I went with Denver the over probably would have been the move because I’d expect them to put up points. I’m taking Seattle though and for them to keep this within a touchdown they’re going to have to muddy the waters a little bit. They can’t keep up with the Broncos if this becomes a shootout so the only way they stick around and cover this spread is if it’s a low scoring game. I could hedge the spread pick a little and go with the over here, but I’m not a coward and I’m willing to go down with the ship.

The Play: Under 43.5

Welcome to my NFL Week 1 betting guide. Each week we are going to pick one favorite, one underdog (AKA Charlie Murphy’s Habitual Line Stepper of the Week), one over, one under, and we’ll cap it off with my lock of the week. Week 1 is always tricky for betting and especially so if you’re an idiot like me. So without further ado let’s get into it.

Favorite

Ravens (-7) vs. Jets

I love the dogs this week so finding a favorite I liked was a bit tough. I don’t usually like touchdown or more favorites but, I like this spot a lot for Baltimore. They’re going to be my survivor pool pick this week as well and I think they roll the Jets even on the road. New York will be without Zach Wilson and former Raven Joe Flacco is set to make the start for the Jets. The Jets will be feisty this year but, Week 1 with a backup QB is going to be tough for them especially against a good team. I am high on the Ravens this year and, I think Lamar Jackson and company feel like they have something to prove this year after how last season ended. If Baltimore gets the ground game going and put up points early on I don’t think the Jets have enough fire power with Flacco at QB to make a comeback. I’ll take the Ravens by two touchdowns to cover the spread.

Charlie Murphy’s Habitual Line Stepper of the Week (Underdog)

Steelers (+6.5) vs. Bengals

I said it already but, I’m going to say it again I LOVE the dogs this week. I almost went a number of different ways here but, I’m going to roll with Pittsburgh. The Steelers are slightly undervalued in my opinion. They aren’t a playoff team because of how tough the AFC is but, this is still a team that went to the playoffs last year. The only major change that was made to the roster is at QB and, Big Ben was a shell of himself last year. I don’t think Mitchell Trubisky is going to set the world on fire but, if he can game manage and hold onto the ball the Steelers are going to hang around in a lot of games. Also, Mike Tomlin led teams typically perform well as underdogs against the spread. He is 45-24 ATS as an underdog during his time in Pittsburgh. On the other hand while I do think the Bengals will be good this feels like a bit of a trap and maybe even a letdown spot in Week 1 after their Super Bowl run last season. This spread to me should be more in the 3 point range and I want to take advantage of the Bengals being slightly over valued early in the season. I think the Bengals win a tight one so take the Steelers with the points.

Over

Raiders vs. Chargers (52)

I said months ago I was going to take this over in Week 1 and I’m not backing down from that now. This almost seems too obvious. Both teams did add to their defenses over the offseason but, you can’t deny the offensive firepower in this game. Starting with the Chargers, Justin Herbert is a top 5 MVP candidate and he returns much of his offense that was top 5 in total yards and points per game last season. I don’t expect them to slow down anytime soon either. In fact, I expect them to contend with the Chiefs for the AFC West division title. The Raiders on the other hand only brought in the best WR in the NFL for Derek Carr to throw to. Josh McDaniels also gives Carr a different system and look on offense and I think that’ll yield positive results for the Raiders especially in the passing game. If these teams start fast this feels like a game where we could get upwards of 60 points. Turnovers are the only thing that could throw a wrench in the total. Using the Bills/Rams game as an example, they only scored 41 combined points but Buffalo’s three first half turnovers really slowed the scoring down and kept them away from the over. If these two QBs can take care of the football I don’t see how they don’t hit this over.

Under

Patriots vs. Dolphins (46)

This is purely me not buying in yet on the Dolphins offense until I see something out of them. It’ll be Tua’s first game in a new system with a new head coach and a new number one receiver. Could they go out and score a ton of points and run the Pats out of Miami? Sure but, I don’t see it happening this early in the season. Both teams have sneaky talented defenses and I think the Patriots offensive style will milk a lot of the clock and limit the scoring. 24-21 seems very within reason for a final score and that puts us at 45 for the total. Give me the Pats 21-17 though for the under.

Lock of the Week

Panthers (-1.5) vs. Browns

I’m all in on the Baker Mayfield revenge game this weekend. When healthy I think Baker still can produce and get something out of this Panthers offense that last years slew of QBs weren’t able to. He has plenty of high level weapons in Christian McCaffrey and DJ Moore to get the ball to as well. The Browns completely hung him out to dry last season forcing him to play through injuries and then used him as the scapegoat when they underperformed. He has something to prove in this game and if we get good Baker and, he brings the swag like he had against Kansas back when he was at Oklahoma it’s a lock in my eyes. The Browns without Deshaun Watson are decidedly less threatening and I think the Panthers can take advantage of that and start their season off on the right foot.

The 2022-23 NFL season is set to kick off with the defending Super Bowl Champion Los Angeles Rams at home against the Buffalo Bills. With that comes my weekly NFL betting guides. Each week I’ll have a post for Thursday and Monday Night Football which will include a play for the spread and the total. For Sunday’s I’ll be doing a post picking one favorite, underdog, over, under, and my lock of the week. We start the season with bang this year as two Super Bowl frontrunners clash in the season opener. This should be a fun one and on top of that a tough game to pick. Lets get started.

The Spread: Bills -2.5

My initial thought here would be to take the home underdog especially in a tight matchup but, I don’t think this game is that simple. It seems as though the experts have all but anointed the Bills as this years Super Bowl champions. Everywhere you look the predictions are the Bills over whoever the NFC has to offer. I’m not ready to buy that just yet but, this is still a very good team. Now, the Rams are as well I just like what the Bills added (and get back) to an already good team. The addition of Von Miller obviously gives the pass rush some pop (have fun paying him $20 million when he’s 39 though) plus, they get Tre White back (although he starts the season on the PUP list) as their number 1 CB. The Rams were able to add Allen Robinson to their receiving corps and Bobby Wagner on defense as well. So both teams seemingly improved but, what does that mean for this game? With Andrew Whitworth retired I think the Bills pass rush led by Miller will be able to disrupt Matthew Stafford enough to force some check down’s and ugly throws. Anything they can do to keep the ball out of Cooper Kupp’s hands the better. Offensively, I like what the Bills can do using Allen as a dual threat mixing in some designed runs. Jalen Ramsey will most likely have his hands full with Stephon Diggs and I think that opens the door for Gabriel Davis and Dawson Knox to feast with Ramsey occupied. The Rams are seeing the higher percentage of bets but, it looks like the majority of the money is on the Bills. If this line jumped up to 3 or 3.5 I’d probably take the Rams. I just don’t think 2.5 gives enough cushion for them to cover in a loss. I think the Bills win outright and the path to cover for the Rams is too difficult with this line. So I’m taking the Bills to spoil the party on Thursday night.

The Play: Bills -2.5

Over/Under: 52

This feels like a trap. Two high powered offenses kicking off the season in a shootout is just what the NFL wants. It’s almost too obvious that the over is a good bet. I just hope that doesn’t mean this total goes way under and everyone including myself ends up looking stupid. It’s tough to see a scenario where both teams don’t let it fly and score somewhere in the high 20’s each. The problem is hard to predict trends in week 1 so I’m just going off feel and how these teams looked last season. What that tells me is you have to go with the over. I’m expecting fireworks for the season opener which means we’ll probably get a 17-10 game knowing my luck. Regardless, you don’t want to be the person taking the under if these two score a ton of points. You have to take the over.

The Play: Over 52

Final Prediction

With my picks of Bills -2.5 and Over 52 I’m going to go with Bills 31 Rams 27.