Welcome to my NFL Week 6 betting guide. Each week we are going to pick one favorite, one underdog (AKA Charlie Murphy’s Habitual Line Stepper of the Week), one over, one under, and we’ll cap it off with a bonus pick that I can’t call my lock of the week anymore because it keeps losing. Last Sunday I went 2-3 which is quite the turnaround from the last two Sundays. Hopefully that’s a sign of good things to come and we can get back over .500 this week.

Favorite

Bengals (-2) vs. Saints

I don’t love a lot of these games this week and I feel like I might be falling into a trap here. The Bengals battled last week with the Ravens and deserve to be favored in this game even on the road. The Saints have shown glimpses of being a good team, but have also looked very bad at times. Cincinnati is still a team with playoff and Super Bowl aspirations. They cannot afford to fall to 2-4 on the season especially if Baltimore keeps winning and pulls away with the division. I truly think they win this game and with the line at less than a field goal I don’t think it’ll be that difficult for them to cover. Bengals escape New Orleans with a 3-7 point victory and cover.

Charlie Murphy’s Habitual Line Stepper of the Week (Underdog)

Falcons (+5.5) vs. 49ers

I hate doing this to my Niners, but this feels like a letdown spot for them. They beat up on a very bad Panthers team last week after a huge Monday Night win the week before. I think they might come back down to earth a bit after having to play on the east coast in consecutive weeks. Atlanta on the other hand has been frisky this season. They are 5-0 ATS and I think giving them almost a touchdown here is a mistake. They’ve continued to be undervalued and I think that will start to correct if they cover here. The Falcons backdoor cover this game with a late score.

Over

Chiefs vs. Bills (54)

Here’s the thing, I actually don’t even feel that good about this pick, but you just have to take it. This could be one of the best regular season games of the year. It also has all the makings of a high scoring game. I mean remember their playoff game last year? The over was almost dead and then they scored about a million points in final two minutes and went to overtime. Just like the Chiefs Monday Night game you’re a loser who doesn’t like fun if you take the under. Take the over, you have to.

Under

Jaguars vs. Colts (42)

The last 10 Colts games have hit the under. The record for consecutive games hitting an under is 11. So we’re going for history here folks. I just can’t sit here after watching last weeks Thursday Night game and think that Matt Ryan is going to be able to will the Colts to enough points to hit this over. I think the only way it gets done is if the Jaguars go off for over 30. Indy scored a whopping 0 points in their last matchup and I can’t see them getting much more on Sunday. I’m shocked they didn’t save this game for Thursday Night Football it seems like it would fit the mold perfectly. Under all day.

The Definitely Not My Lock of the Week Bonus Pick

Patriots (+2.5) vs. Browns

Call me a fraud if you want, but I won’t be betting on this game. Trust me, I have 27 years of rabid fandom and possibly a season hanging in the balance. I don’t need anything else to get me going for this one. The Patriots come into this game riding high off a shutout of the Lions last week while the Browns lost a heartbreaker to the Chargers. Simply put, I think this comes down to how well the Patriots defense can slow down Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. You know even with Bailey Zappe at QB the Patriots should be able to move the ball and put up points against the Browns Defense. I’m banking on Bill Belichick being able to scheme up the Pats defense and New England coming out of Cleveland with a victory. Take the moneyline here if you’re feeling frisky too. Pats by a touchdown.

We have another Thursday Night snoozer on the horizon it seems. Or who knows this might be the game of the week after everyone preemptively shit on it after last weeks Broncos-Colts debacle. I have no idea which way I’m leaning here so I’m just going to talk myself into something while I write this. Let’s get into it.

The Spread: PK

You can get this line anywhere between a point on either side, but I’m going to roll with a pick’em for the purposes of this blog because that’s what my book has. You could give a million reasons as to why you’d take either of these teams here too that’s what makes this pick so difficult. The Commanders have looked terrible since their Week 1 win, although they did hang around with the Titans on Sunday which is at least encouraging. The Bears won a sloppy game against the 49ers and beat a lowly Texans team. Not a ton to write home about for either of these two. I think in a situation like this you have to look at what team has more talent and that is probably the Commanders. Offensively they still have three very good WRs and two good RBs. If Carson Wentz can limit mistakes and stop running around in the pocket like he has his shoes tied together, I think Washington can do enough to pull this one out. The Bears have come across as one dimensional this season and I think that will work against them. The Commanders defensive strength is their front four so if they can stifle the Bears rushing attack and force Justin Fields to beat them they can come out of Chicago with a much needed win. This feels like a spot to take the desperate team and especially one that the public is fading at 65%. Hop on the riverboat this is going to be a bumpy ride.

The Play: Commanders PK

Over/Under 38

This seems like another classic primetime under to get your week started. The number is so low it scares me a bit, but Soldier Field has also yielded 69% to the under since 2019. I’m skeptical here to take the under because it feels like one that we could lose quickly if there’s some early scoring. I’m going to bank on these offenses stalling for a large portion of this game though and begrudgingly take this under.

The Play: Under 38

Final Prediction

With my earlier predictions of Commanders PK and Under 38 give me the Commanders 17-14.

Week 5 closes out with a great matchup as the Chiefs play host to the Raiders. This could be just the palate cleansing contest we need after Thursday’s debacle of a game. After a 2-3 day yesterday (4-3 overall) I’m hoping we can close the week on a high note.

The Spread: Chiefs (-7)

The Raiders have been tough to bet on this season. Take it from someone who’s had some type of action in all four of their games and is a cool 1-3 on those bets. The Chiefs on the other hand have been a set it and forget it team since Patrick Mahomes has been the starter. So that means the Chiefs are the pick here right? I don’t think it’s necessarily that easy. 7 points is a lot and the Raiders have vastly underperformed this season and I think after last week they might be turning the corner. The Chiefs have the 29th ranked defense and the Raiders have the best WR in the NFL to go along with a star studded cast on offense. It always seems that when a team has an impressive win they come back down to earth in some sense. It doesn’t necessarily mean they won’t win outright, but maybe they don’t cover a big spread. You just have to look back a couple weeks when Buffalo trounced the Titans on Monday night and proceeded to lose as 5/6 point favorites in Miami. The public is pretty squarely on the Chiefs too and I like that even more. I think this game is going to be closer than you think. I can’t tell you who it’ll be, but someone wins by a field goal here so you know what that means? Take the Rrrrrrraiders.

The Play: Raiders +7

Over/Under 51.5

This is the one. This is the game where we get an absolute scoring barrage. I can feel it. Like I said above the Chiefs defense hasn’t been great this year and they face a tough test in this Raiders offense. The Chiefs also just put up 41 points last week against a very good Buccaneers defense too. This has all the makings of a shootout. You also can’t be a wet blanket and take this under. If you do you’re just a loser that doesn’t like fun. It’s time. Let’s see some points and get this over.

The Play: Over 51.5

Final Prediction

With my earlier predictions of Raiders +7 and Over 51.5 give me the Chiefs 34-31.

Welcome to my NFL Week 5 betting guide. Each week we are going to pick one favorite, one underdog (AKA Charlie Murphy’s Habitual Line Stepper of the Week), one over, one under, and we’ll cap it off with a bonus pick that I can’t call my lock of the week anymore because it keeps losing. Last Sunday was horrific again so let’s just get into it.

Favorite

49ers (-6.5) vs. Panthers

I went back and forth here between the Niners and Eagles for my favorite, but I landed on San Francisco because the Cardinals scare me a little more than the Panthers do. Obviously taking a road favorite at almost a touchdown is a risk, but I’m banking on the fact that Carolina will have a difficult time moving the ball on this defense. Defensively I don’t think they’re good enough to keep this game as low scoring as they’d need to in order for them to hang around either. Look for the 49ers to jump out to an early lead, let the defense do their thing, and not look back. Niners by double digits here.

Charlie Murphy’s Habitual Line Stepper of the Week (Underdog)

Seahawks (+5.5) vs. Saints

The Seahawks stink, but I really like them here for some reason. The Saints are coming off a tough loss in London and I think not having a bye after playing out there will hurt them. They may have Jameis Winston back for this one, but I don’t think it matters too much. The Saints offense has struggled with Winston at QB this year. The Seahawks have shown that they can put up points when not playing a top 10 defense as well. They should have some confidence coming off their 48 point output last week and I think they can keep that momentum rolling. This feels like a close game and I think giving the Seahawks that many points is a mistake. This line should probably be somewhere around 3 and I see that being the difference in the game. Either way we cover with the Seahawks.

Over

Bengals vs. Ravens (48.5)

Primetime unders have been my thing this year, but the script is going to flip at some point and we’re going to start getting some overs. I think this is the game to do it. Two explosive offenses and we only need 7 touchdowns to get there. The only thing that might hold us back is if the Ravens run the ball too much and kill the clock. If we can get a quick strike score to start the game and turn this into a shootout we’ll get this over quickly. Since the Bengals found their footing they have scored 27 points in each of the last two games. The Ravens have scored at least 20 in every contest as well as played in some high scoring games. This feels like the primetime shootout we’ve been looking for these first few weeks let’s see some points.

Under

Bears vs. Vikings (44)

This is basically just a “the Bears aren’t going to score any points” under right here. I would’ve expected this to be a couple points lower and that’s why I like it. Chicago has scored over 20 points just once this season and the Vikings have topped out at 28. I think it’ll be close to the total, but the under is a bit safer. A couple of turnovers from both sides and the fact that the Bears will run the ball a ton will slow the game down and limit the scoring. Think like a 24-14 final here for the under.

The Definitely Not My Lock of the Week Bonus Pick

Giants (+8) vs. Packers

I’m going to keep the name of this pick for now because we at least pushed it last week and it wasn’t an outright loss. The Packers most likely find a way to win this game, but they aren’t playing like a team that should be giving 8 points right now, especially in a neutral site game overseas. The Giants are an ugly 3-1 this year, but are also 3-1 ATS and that counts for something. I can see New York hanging around like the Patriots did last week and if you’re going to give me more than a touchdown I’m going to take it. Danny Dimes also plays better on the road and this is about as much of a road game as you’re going to find. Packers win, Giants cover.

After an up and down set of picks in Week 4 we finished the week right at .500 (4-4-1). Now we get to kick off Week 5 in what I can only imagine is going to be an incredibly slow paced and boring game. I think the worst part about it is the fact that I even have to pick one of these teams. There’s a lot to unpack here so let’s get into it.

The Spread: Broncos (-3)

The line here is kind of all over the place depending on where you look. It’s pretty much 50/50 with the Broncos favored by either 3 or 3.5. To be perfectly honest I hate both of these teams this year and I’d rather just not give a pick, but that’s not what the people are here for. Both teams have struggled offensively, but played good defense for the most part. Starting with the Broncos they are probably the most unimpressive team I’ve seen that had any sort of expectations coming in to the year. Last week against the Raiders they put up 23 points in a loss and it was the first time they eclipsed 20 this season. That is mind blowing considering the way the media was talking about them before the season and the contract they gave to Russell Wilson. I didn’t buy it then and I’m still not buying it now.

I was a little higher on Indy, but I think I put it perfectly when I said I was “cautiously optimistic.” Matt Ryan has looked like a shell of himself this season and outside of stealing a game at home against the Chiefs they’ve been just straight up bad this year. Somethings got to give though and it’s tough to put my finger on what it is. Both teams could be without their star running backs (Javonte Williams tore his ACL Sunday and Jonathan Taylor is questionable) and key pieces on defense (Colts Shaq Leonard and Broncos Randy Gregory) that won’t play Thursday. This figures to be a close game and in close games I’d rather take the points. If your book has the Colts at +3.5 I’d jump on it, but I still like them at 3 especially if Taylor ends up being ready to go (emphasis on the IF). I wouldn’t go any lower than 3 with Indy, but I think where the line is at now they’re the move.

The Play: Colts +3

Over/Under (42.5)

For me this pick seems like a no brainer for the under so I imagine we’ll get a shootout instead. I’m not a fan of taking unders because you can always lose it right up until the end, but the Primetime unders have been hot this year and these two teams have been non-existent on offense for the most part this season. Then I look at the fact that Javonte Williams is out for Denver and the Colts could be without Jonathan Taylor and I like it even more. Everything is pointing towards the under and that makes me nervous, but I’m going to stick with my gut here and hope this plays out like the Broncos/49ers game from Week 3.

The Play: Under 42.5

Final Prediction

With my earlier predictions of Colts +3 and Under 42.5 give me the Colts 20-17.

I’m a miserable prick again today. After a 2-0 Thursday I thought I was back. Then I went 0-4-1 yesterday. I’m a dead person again. Yesterday was brutal, I woke up and lost the under in the 9:30 London game so the day was pretty much shit from the get-go. I apologize to anyone that took any advice from this site for Sunday. The Betting Guide and the Antithesis would’ve won you a grand total of $0. You would’ve got your money back on the Bills/Ravens game and that’s it. You don’t get those type of hard hitting braindead takes anywhere else folks. To pile on top of it the Patriots lost a heartbreaker at Lambeau with a third string rookie QB and I had to sit and watch it with smug fucks that picked the Packers in survival pools and bet $250 on their moneyline to win like .43 cents. If you’re keeping score at home, I also found out that my favorite bar is closing and my dog is having neck surgery while I’m typing this. The people want picks though, and the take game doesn’t sleep even if you don’t have anywhere to drink Bud Lights during Monday Night Football anymore. Let’s see if we can hit both of these and get back to .500 for the week.

Rams vs. 49ers (-2) (42.5)

I don’t know how to feel about this game. It seems like Vegas is baiting you into taking the Rams by giving them a couple points like they did Thursday with Miami. The public and the money are on the Rams as well although the money isn’t as much of a runaway. I’ve notoriously backed the 49ers in the past and I think I’m going to continue to do it here. The Rams have looked sloppy offensively and the Niners have a great defense. Offensively, even without Trent Williams they have always found a way to run the ball under Kyle Shanahan. If they can put some points up early and give the defense a lead to play with I think they come away with the win here. As for the total, we’re going with primetime unders again. The San Francisco defense will be able to keep the scoring to a minimum and their offense can win with a couple of touchdowns if that’s the case. Let’s win these bets for the G.A.P, give me the 49ers 20 Rams 13.

The Plays: 49ers -2 and Under 42.5

Welcome to the first installment of “NFL Betting Guide – The Antithesis” . There will be no hard hitting analysis of X’s and O’s. You won’t find profound insight to anything at all. I don’t care how the third string tackle fits into this scheme because he was coached by Bones Weatherly in college. The only thing you’ll get out of this is cold hard CASH.

An Agreement

Jake, of Jake’s Takes, had a rare good pick on the Week 4 NFL betting guide. Choosing a team to ride with all season is like picking a horse you are willing to live or die by. That horse is Trevor Lawrence. Looking at the way these two teams started the season you’d expect both to have inflated value here. This one opened at Philly -7 and that is complete disrespect to the Jags. It’s been bet down to 6.5 and has not come back which tells me I’m on the right side of history in this Doug Pederson revenge game. I’ll take the Jags to win it outright as well after destroying the Colts and Chargers. Jags 23, Eags 20

A Disagreement (Antithesis)

Some people say if you want guaranteed income you should invest in property, or the stock market, or Dogecoin. I don’t know about all that but I do know that if you just fade the lock of the week you’ll have a higher return than any of those options. Simply put, the Bills are in rough shape right now. The Ravens are 15-3-1 ATS as home dogs. A rainy, windy day in Baltimore is also exactly what you need for a low scoring grind it out cover. Give me the Ravens in another upset special.

A Bonus Lock

I’ll leave the reader with a nickel’s worth of free advice about survivor pools. The only advantage you have is to pick against everyone else. You need to find spots that you can put your nuts on the table and this week that looks like the Steelers. They are 3 to 3.5 point favorites against the Jets at Pittsburgh. I love that Zach Wilson is starting for the loser franchise. This one feels like a lock all the way around. Tomlin is itching to see what Kenny Pickett can do and Trubisky hears the footsteps. He’s like a cornered animal and he’s fighting for this life. Expect fireworks from Trubisky; 350 yards and 3 TDs. Steelers win it 34-10.

Welcome to my NFL Week 4 betting guide. Each week we are going to pick one favorite, one underdog (AKA Charlie Murphy’s Habitual Line Stepper of the Week), one over, one under, and we’ll cap it off with a bonus pick that I can’t call my lock of the week anymore because it keeps losing. Last Sunday was rough as my picks went 1-4 so let’s get back on track this week.

Favorite

Lions (-4) vs. Seahawks

The Lions were my only correct pick last Sunday and goddammit I’m riding with them again. They are 3-0 ATS this season, twice as a dog and once as a favorite. They do tend to blow leads late in games, but that is typically as an underdog. If they come out and play like they have the last few weeks against an inferior opponent in Seattle I don’t see how they have any trouble covering four points. The Seahawks had a nice revenge win in Week 1 and since then we’ve seen what they really are which is not a good team. They are clearly in a rebuilding phase while they look for their next franchise QB. The Lions on the other hand have been frisky this year and seem to be building something in Detroit. The Lions will be ready for this game and without the help of the 12th man I don’t think Seattle has any answers. They cruise here.

Charlie Murphy’s Habitual Line Stepper of the Week (Underdog)

Jaguars (+6.5) vs. Eagles

The Eagles have looked like world beaters through three weeks, but the Jaguars have also been impressive. The game is in Philly, but Jacksonville just went out west to LA and ran it up on the Chargers. On paper you’d think this would be a blowout. For some reason though I keep coming back to the thought that the Jags can hang around in this one. If we were talking about a 3-4 point spread I don’t know how good I’d feel about this but a 6.5 point cushion makes me think Jacksonville can cover. Their defense has been good this year and I think Trevor Lawrence has figured it out enough to put some points up. I do think the Eagles still win just not by as much as you’d think. Philly wins by a field goal and Jacksonville covers.

Over

Browns vs. Falcons (47.5)

A terrible Atlanta defense? Potentially no Myles Garrett? Two teams that have scored at least 26 points in every game this season and allowed more than 20 in all but one game? Sign me up for this over. Both teams have hit the over in all their games as well. This is also an attainable number as 7 touchdowns gets us there with some wiggle room for a missed extra point. Atlanta has looked solid on offense through three games and so has Cleveland even with Jacoby Brissett at QB. I think the Browns will be able to put up a ton of points on this Falcons defense and Atlanta will be able to do enough to get us to the total.

Under

Vikings vs. Saints (41.5)

It appears as if Andy Dalton will get the nod at QB for the Saints with Jameis Winston dealing with a back injury. Michael Thomas has also been ruled out for New Orleans. This takes a lot of pop out of the Saints offense that has already struggled at times this year. The game being in London too makes me think we won’t see much offense either. A long travel week, especially changing time zones that drastically, doesn’t bode well for scoring. The Saints defense should also be able to keep the Vikings in check. I think New Orleans hangs around and loses a close game. For them to do that they’re going to need to keep the ball away from Minnesota. If this turns into a shootout New Orleans isn’t going to be able to keep up. I think the Saints run the ball and try to control the clock which will lead to a low scoring game.

The Definitely Not My Lock of the Week Anymore Bonus Pick

Bills (-3) vs. Ravens

I’d like to reiterate here this is not a lock of the week for the time being. You can’t call a pick a lock if it loses 3 weeks in a row. Anyways, I said after two weeks that the Bills were the bet every week until proven otherwise. Well, I didn’t take into account a trip to South Beach in September which is never an easy game for anyone. Last week felt like an anomaly for Buffalo and I think they get back on track this week. I understand being a road favorite against a good team isn’t ideal, but this also isn’t uncharted waters for the Bills this season. They went into LA as 2.5 point favorites in the season opener and won by 21 points. Josh Allen is going to have a field day with this Ravens defense that allowed 26 points to the Patriots last week. On the other side of the ball the Bills have allowed 10, 7, and 21 points in their three games this season. I think If they can get into the high 20s point-wise they should be able to cover here. We circle the wagons in Baltimore this Sunday.

After an absolutely terrible Week 3 I am going to do my best to get back on track here in Week 4. Last week my picks went 1-8-1. That’s humbling especially considering I was over 60% through two weeks. Now I have the unenviable task of trying to handicap this game that I have no strong feeling about either way. I’m sure I’ll talk myself into something while I’m writing so let’s just get started.

The Spread: Bengals (-4)

I don’t even know where to start with this game. Miami has looked great through three weeks and the Bengals started off 0-2 before finding their footing against the Jets last week. Conventional wisdom would tell you to take the Dolphins with the points here. So if that’s the case then why is the spread going in the other direction? It opened at 3.5 and is now at 4. The public is pretty squarely on the Dolphins at around 64%, but the line moving in favor of the Bengals tells me the big bets are going in on Cincinnati. It’s tough to pick against Miami right now the way they are playing, but this could be a big letdown spot for them coming off a huge win over Buffalo. On the other side the Bengals really need this game to get back to .500. I think we fade the public and take the more desperate team in Cincinnati.

The Play: Bengals -4

Over/Under 47

This feels like it is going to be a pretty popular over. It is an attainable number and both these offenses can put up points if needed. That also could’ve been said for a bunch of games this year so far that didn’t hit the over. Last week both of these teams played in games that would’ve hit this under and the Dolphins even played the Bills who’s offense is comparable to the Bengals in terms of firepower. I hate betting trends, but I actually think I like this under. Primetime unders are hitting like crazy right now and only one of the six games these two have played this year have gone over the total. I also think both teams might be a little slow out of the gate on a short week, especially Miami coming off a grind of a game last Sunday. I’m sick of picking unders, but it’s the right move Thursday Night.

The Play: Under 47

Final Prediction

With my earlier prediction of Bengals -4 and Under 47 give me the Bengals 24-17.

Alright, I’m going to do an unconventional Monday post here. To be upfront about it, I’ve gotten absolutely torched in Week 3 so far. Including my Thursday Night plays my picks are 1-6 this week. I also took the Bucs and 49ers on my own and those both lost as well. Shoutout to the Lions for covering +6 and being my only win of the week so far. I’m on tilt big time right now. I feel like Tony Soprano when he wanted to put Carmella’s spec house money on the Jets and she wouldn’t let him. It all started with the Steelers forgetting how to play football in the second half on Thursday. Then we had the Raiders who are currently the worst team in the NFL record-wise lose by 2 when I had them at -2. The Bengals and the Jets refused to score in the second half and hit their over. The Seahawks and Falcons remembered how to play football and hit the over when I had the under. The Bucs couldn’t move the ball and the 49ers couldn’t win a game where Russell Wilson overthrew every receiver he threw a pass to. Then there’s the worst beat of the day and I’ll tell you why. The Chiefs looked terrible and didn’t cover my lock of the week and that’s not even the worst part. They were my survival pool pick in both my pools after I had to buy back in last week because the Bengals lost. Ooh and I forgot, the fucking Patriots lost and Mac Jones is hurt so I have to watch Brian Hoyer get folded at Lambeau next Sunday. So yeah, it’s been quite a week for me and how am I going to try and close the week strong you ask? I’m going to bet on motherfucking Daniel Jones and the Giants. Surely that can’t go wrong right?

Look I don’t have the energy for fancy analytics on this game. Simply put, it’s probably going to suck, but we’re all still going to watch it. I bet against Cooper Rush last week and I’m going to do it again. Both these defenses are competent so I don’t see a lot of points here (take the under) and I just can’t fathom how Cooper Rush does this to me again even if he’s playing a lesser opponent. The Giants have found a way the last two weeks and I think they can do it again without Dak under center on the other side. The bet and money percentages are right around 50% with a slight lean to the Giants as well. I’m hoping the Meadowlands is rocking for the G-Men tonight and we can close the week out with a win, but in all honesty fade me because I’m cold as can be right now. I guess let’s play some football?

The Plays: Giants -1 and Under 39