This Monday we get a divisional matchup between two teams trending in opposite directions. The Bengals seem to have found their footing and the Browns are still trying to hang on waiting for Deshaun Watson’s return. Will the Bengals keep rolling or will the Browns salvage their season? Let’s take a look.

The Spread: Bengals (-3)

I got this at 3 points so that’s what I’m going with here. A lot of books have this at 3.5 which means the money’s probably coming in on the Bengals. I like Cincinnati in this spot. The Browns have lost four straight and I don’t think that stops anytime soon. Even without Ja’Marr Chase I think the Bengals still have enough on offense to get the job done. Divisional games can always be a little dicey though. I do think this game will be closer than some think it will be, but ultimately I think the Bengals get the job done. We’ve seen when the Browns have had to rely on Jacoby Brissett it hasn’t gone so well for them. Cincinnati slowing down Nick Chubb is going to be key. If Cleveland can’t run the ball Brissett is going to have a tough time keeping up with the Bengals offense. Bengals win by more than a touchdown with a late score.

The Play: Cincinnati -3

Over/Under (45)

I latched onto the Primetime under for a bit too long and now it’s starting to bite me. The Browns have been the best over team so far at 5-2 while the Bengals have been one of the worst at 2-5. 45 is a reachable number for these teams and we won’t even need a quick start to get there. The Browns have given up at least 23 points in all but one of their games. In their four wins the Bengals have scored at least 27 points. We shouldn’t have an issue with Cincy doing their part and if we can get the Browns to 20 points I think we’ll hit it.

The Play: Over 45

Final Prediction

With my earlier predictions of Bengals -3 and Over 45 give me the Bengals 30-20.

Welcome to my NFL Week 8 betting guide. Each week we are going to pick one favorite, one underdog (AKA Charlie Murphy’s Habitual Line Stepper of the Week), one over, one under, and we’ll cap it off with a bonus pick that I can’t call my lock of the week anymore because it keeps losing. Last week we changed it up a bit (with not so great results), so we move back to the old format for Week 8.

Favorite

49ers (-1.5) vs. Rams

If you’re going to give me less than a field goal here for the Niners, I’m going to take it. I don’t even care that they are on the road. Kyle Shanahan owns Sean McVay and he has for years (at least in the regular season). They beat them handily a few weeks ago and now add in Christian McCaffrey off a full week of practice. I think it’s time we call the Rams what they really are and that’s a mediocre team at best. Matthew Stafford isn’t healthy and this team reeks of a Super Bowl hangover. San Francisco all day.

Charlie Murphy’s Habitual Line Stepper of the Week (Underdog)

Cardinals (+3.5) vs. Vikings

The Cardinals seemed to get back on track last week so I like them at more than a field goal here. I’m still not a big believer in the Vikings and they have to start showing some cracks at some point. Arizona has also been a good road team under Kyler Murray. They are 19-9-1 against the spread on the road since he was drafted. The public is slightly favoring the Cardinals, but the money is pretty squarely on them which I like. Look for Arizona to win this game outright and if not the 3 point cushion sure helps.

Over

Raiders vs. Saints (49.5)

On paper you’d think that taking an over in a game with Andy Dalton at QB wouldn’t be a smart move. Well he’s made four starts so far this year and the Saints have scored at least 25 points in all of those games. If they can keep that up we’re already halfway there and you know the Raiders can score. Not to mention the Saints defense has given up at least 28 points in their last four games as well. The Raiders offense is just as good if not better than all of those teams too. All signs point to the over here. Throw in the fact that it’s in the dome too and I like it even more.

Under

Broncos vs. Jaguars (39.5)

Last chance to take the London under so you know we have to go with it. Both games across the pond have gone over this year, but those were at Tottenham and traditionally games in Wembley have gone under. Denver also just has a penchant for unders this year. The under is 6-1 in Broncos games this season. So much for your $250 million QB. Anyways, Denver also plays good defense and they’ll keep them in this game. As long as we can avoid a big kick return or pick six the under seems pretty safe here.

The Definitely Not My Lock of the Week Bonus Pick

Steelers (+10.5) vs. Eagles

The battle for PA. This one is gross to look at, but it’s Mike Tomlin as an underdog so you have to take it. I know that strategy hasn’t necessarily been foolproof this year (remember the Buffalo game?), but 10.5 is a lot of points to give anyone. Sure Philly is undefeated this season and almost certainly wins this game, I just don’t know if it’ll be by more than 10. They’ve only won by more than that margin twice so far in six games. Pittsburgh’s been scrappy at times this year and I like them to keep this interesting. Birds win by a TD.

I bet a lot of people had this game circled on their calendars before the season started. Now maybe not so much. Both teams have disappointed to some degree this year although the Bucs have had far more issues than the Ravens. I’ve gone back and forth here so let’s get started and see where we land.

The Spread: Ravens (-1.5)

I have a pick in mind and I don’t think any sort of X’s and O’s explanation is going to help my argument. Everything about this game says the Ravens should win. They’ve played better and Tampa has been awful lately. All I hear with that though is this sounds like a trap game for Baltimore. If they truly are that much better then they should be favored by more than 1.5. Nothing and I mean NOTHING about the way Tampa has been playing makes you think they can win this game and that’s why I like it. They need this win desperately too. Tom Brady didn’t get divorced to miss the playoffs this year and this needs to be the start of their comeback. The public is all over Baltimore too and fading them has been profitable this year. This could blow up in my face, but I’m going with the home dog.

The Play: Buccaneers +1.5

Over/Under (45)

This game seems like an over, but the way these offenses have been playing lately I’m not so sure. The last two standalone primetime games have hit to over so the heavy lean towards unders might be correcting. Still though, I like the under here. The Bucs have only scored over 21 points once and that was in a loss trying to keep up with the Chiefs. The Ravens offense started hot, but has scored between 19-23 points their last four games. I’m thinking both teams land in the low 20’s and we hit this under.

The Play: Under 45

Final Prediction

With my earlier predictions of Buccaneers +1.5 and Under 45 give me the Bucs 21-20.

Week 7 comes to an end with the Chicago Bears coming to visit my New England Patriots. Another absolutely riveting game to cap off killer slate from Week 7 (sense the sarcasm). Thankfully I have a vested interest in this game or I wouldn’t be too fired up about this one. There’s always money to be made though, let’s take a look at how we can do that tonight.

The Spread: Patriots (-8.5)

On paper this seems like an obvious bet. The only thing I worry about is just how healthy is Mac Jones going to be coming off his high ankle sprain from Week 3? The Bears pass defense has performed well so far this season which means we’ll probably see a healthy dose of Rhamondre Stevenson and Damien Harris. I also think the Pats will try and protect Mac in his first game back by not asking him to do too much. Expect some long, calculated, time consuming drives from the Patriots offense tonight.

The Bears have been quite one-dimensional offensively and I think that plays right into Belichick’s hands. He’s always able to take away the thing you do best and make you beat him another way. Well when the only thing you do well is hand the ball to David Montgomery and Khalil Herbert you’re going to have a hard time against the Patriots defense. My only real worry is Justin Fields scrambling and ability to get outside the pocket and make plays. Outside of that it’s going to be a long night for the Bears offense. With that being said I think my pick is kind of obvious. Come on, did you think I was going any other way with this? Pats by double digits.

The Play: Patriots -8.5

Over/Under (40)

Again I think this pick is pretty clear as well. It’s going to be cold, windy, and rainy in Foxboro. The Bears offense stinks. The Pats will probably be running the ball for the majority of the game. I mean this screams under to me. Admittedly I’d be perfectly fine losing this bet if the Patriots go out and hang a 40 spot on the Bears, but I don’t see it happening. Once again we ride with a Primetime Under.

The Play: Under 40

Final Prediction

With my earlier predictions of Patriots -8.5 and under 40 give me the Patriots 24-7.

I decided to do the betting guide a little different for Week 7. After pouring over the data I realized I basically only like underdogs this week. So in keeping with the Chappelle’s Show theme to the underdog pick (and the fact that it’s Week “SEVEN”), this week we’re going to do the Grits ‘n’ Gravy Lucky Number 7 dogs of the week. Hopefully after this week you can buy your momma a car, and spend the rest on PCP if that’s your thing.

Roll #1

Falcons (+6.5) vs. Bengals

They’re just going to keep disrespecting the Falcons huh? I mean obviously the Bengals are the better team and they probably win this game, but all this Atlanta team has done this year is cover. They’re 6-0 against the spread and you want to give me 6.5 points? I’m going to take that every single time. I thought after their win last week they would start closing the gap on their lines, but I guess not. The Bengals have been playing good football as of late, but Atlanta has shown they can hang around with anyone. Time to go from ashy to classy. Falcons Cover

Roll #2

Commanders (+5) vs. Packers

This line is already starting to move so get it here while you can. I understand the Commanders haven’t looked great this year, but that was the Carson Wentz led Commanders. Now we throw it back to the Taylor Heinicke days and anything can happen. Green Bay has struggled to this point and are coming off a beatdown at the hands of the Jets. Conventional wisdom would tell you the Packers should roll here, but you might’ve thought the same thing last week coming off a loss to the Giants. I don’t really have any stats to back it up, but I just feel like this is a good spot for Washington. A shakeup to the offense will be good for them and I think their defense can play well enough to keep the Packers offense in check. Someone wins by a field goal. Either way we cover.

Roll #3

Texans (+7) vs. Raiders

This is the sharp play this week. Everybody and their mother is going to take the Raiders in this game because of how they played against the Chiefs in their last game. Not to mention the fact that the Texans suck. I just don’t think the Raiders should be laying 7 points to anyone right now. They’re sitting at 1-4 and outside of the Chiefs game they haven’t looked great this year especially offensively. Houston has had a tendency to play close games this year as well. They’ve only lost by more than a touchdown once and even in that game they were within a field goal in the fourth quarter. The Raiders probably win, but Houston keeps it close.

Roll #4

The Local Thug Rodney “Quills” Dinkins Rat Line of the Week

Giants (+3) vs. Jaguars (-3)

Stay the fuck away from this game. Vegas is clearly baiting giving the 5-1 Giants 3 points against the 2-4 Jaguars. At first glance this seems like an easy bet on New York, but it isn’t. I’m sure the game being in Jacksonville plays a role in the line, but regardless just stay away here somethings fishy and I smell a rat. You don’t want to end up like my friend Grits ‘n’ Gravy getting snake eyes on an all in roll against Leonard Washington, and that’s what’ll happen if you take the Giants here. Just be careful “Quills” doesn’t come in and take the money we won on the other three games and you’ll be walking out of Sunday with some money in your pocket.

Week 7 begins with a battle for relevancy between the Saints and Cardinals. Both teams sit at 2-4 so if they have any designs on making a run they’ll need to win this game. Hopefully we can get an interesting Thursday Night game for once, but honestly we probably won’t. Let’s take a look.

The Spread: Cardinals (-2)

This ones tricky. I’m not that confident in either direction. Both teams haven’t looked great this year although the Cardinals get Deandre Hopkins back this week. I’m not sure how much of a factor he’ll play though as he may be on a snap count this week. The Saints on the other hand are banged up big time. They were without their top 3 WRs last week and still almost beat the Bengals. Both teams are desperate here so unfortunately I can’t use that logic which has helped me out the last few Monday/Thursday games. My thought here is similar to two Thursday’s ago with the Colts and Broncos. In a close game with two evenly matched teams it’s probably smarter to take the points even if it’s only 2. Regardless of who’s been at QB the Saints have been able to hang around with some solid teams this year. I think this is a close game so like I said earlier you have to take the points. Fade the public again. We ride with the Saints.

The Play: Saints +2

Over/Under (44)

The under has just been hitting at such a crazy pace right now I don’t think you can bet against it. Unless of course you get a game like Chiefs/Raiders or something like that. The Cardinals have struggled offensively and while the Saints haven’t necessarily I think their injuries will start to catch up to them. This feels like a game where we’ll get some turnovers and if you watched the Bills and the Chiefs you know that turnovers are an over killer. I think you go under here and hope for another slop fest like the last few weeks.

The Play: Under (44)

Final Prediction

With my earlier predictions of Saints +2 and Under 44 give me the Saints 20-17.

Week 6 caps off with yet another Denver Broncos primetime game. I don’t know how they keep doing this to us, but here we are. After a 2-0 Thursday we finished up 3-2 yesterday for a 5-2 start to the week. Hopefully we can keep that momentum rolling tonight.

The Spread: Chargers (-4.5)

I’ve been thinking about who I want to take in this game since last night and the answer might gross you out. Yes, that means I’m thinking about Denver. While they have looked horrendous offensively they still do have a good defense and the Chargers are missing key players on offense (Keenan Allen and Rashawn Slater to name a few) and not to mention Joey Bosa on defense. LA has been the better team this year, but they haven’t been as impressive as it may seem. They have wins over the Raiders, Texans, and Browns teams that have combined to win 4 games through 6 weeks. The line here just feels like too much for a divisional game. Both teams need this, but the Broncos risk their season slipping away with a loss. Russ is also due to have at least a decent game. He can’t keep up this level of poor play forever. I can’t believe I’m going to type this. I actually just threw up in my mouth thinking about it, but you gotta do it tonight. Broncos country, let’s ride.

The Play: Broncos +4.5

Over/Under (46)

I mean I think you just have to keep taking unders in Broncos games no matter what. 46 is for sure an attainable number, but again we are talking about the Broncos right now. I think for them to win the game they’re going to have to control the ball and burn the clock. They haven’t been a quick strike scoring team either this year and I think that plays to the under as well. The Chargers can get theirs when they need to, but I’m hoping with a slightly depleted offense they’ll struggle at times to move the ball. You’ll have to sweat this one out, but it’s the right move.

The Play: Under 46

Final Prediction

With my earlier predictions of Broncos +4.5 and Under 46 give me the Broncos 21-20.

Welcome to my NFL Week 6 betting guide. Each week we are going to pick one favorite, one underdog (AKA Charlie Murphy’s Habitual Line Stepper of the Week), one over, one under, and we’ll cap it off with a bonus pick that I can’t call my lock of the week anymore because it keeps losing. Last Sunday I went 2-3 which is quite the turnaround from the last two Sundays. Hopefully that’s a sign of good things to come and we can get back over .500 this week.

Favorite

Bengals (-2) vs. Saints

I don’t love a lot of these games this week and I feel like I might be falling into a trap here. The Bengals battled last week with the Ravens and deserve to be favored in this game even on the road. The Saints have shown glimpses of being a good team, but have also looked very bad at times. Cincinnati is still a team with playoff and Super Bowl aspirations. They cannot afford to fall to 2-4 on the season especially if Baltimore keeps winning and pulls away with the division. I truly think they win this game and with the line at less than a field goal I don’t think it’ll be that difficult for them to cover. Bengals escape New Orleans with a 3-7 point victory and cover.

Charlie Murphy’s Habitual Line Stepper of the Week (Underdog)

Falcons (+5.5) vs. 49ers

I hate doing this to my Niners, but this feels like a letdown spot for them. They beat up on a very bad Panthers team last week after a huge Monday Night win the week before. I think they might come back down to earth a bit after having to play on the east coast in consecutive weeks. Atlanta on the other hand has been frisky this season. They are 5-0 ATS and I think giving them almost a touchdown here is a mistake. They’ve continued to be undervalued and I think that will start to correct if they cover here. The Falcons backdoor cover this game with a late score.

Over

Chiefs vs. Bills (54)

Here’s the thing, I actually don’t even feel that good about this pick, but you just have to take it. This could be one of the best regular season games of the year. It also has all the makings of a high scoring game. I mean remember their playoff game last year? The over was almost dead and then they scored about a million points in final two minutes and went to overtime. Just like the Chiefs Monday Night game you’re a loser who doesn’t like fun if you take the under. Take the over, you have to.

Under

Jaguars vs. Colts (42)

The last 10 Colts games have hit the under. The record for consecutive games hitting an under is 11. So we’re going for history here folks. I just can’t sit here after watching last weeks Thursday Night game and think that Matt Ryan is going to be able to will the Colts to enough points to hit this over. I think the only way it gets done is if the Jaguars go off for over 30. Indy scored a whopping 0 points in their last matchup and I can’t see them getting much more on Sunday. I’m shocked they didn’t save this game for Thursday Night Football it seems like it would fit the mold perfectly. Under all day.

The Definitely Not My Lock of the Week Bonus Pick

Patriots (+2.5) vs. Browns

Call me a fraud if you want, but I won’t be betting on this game. Trust me, I have 27 years of rabid fandom and possibly a season hanging in the balance. I don’t need anything else to get me going for this one. The Patriots come into this game riding high off a shutout of the Lions last week while the Browns lost a heartbreaker to the Chargers. Simply put, I think this comes down to how well the Patriots defense can slow down Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. You know even with Bailey Zappe at QB the Patriots should be able to move the ball and put up points against the Browns Defense. I’m banking on Bill Belichick being able to scheme up the Pats defense and New England coming out of Cleveland with a victory. Take the moneyline here if you’re feeling frisky too. Pats by a touchdown.

We have another Thursday Night snoozer on the horizon it seems. Or who knows this might be the game of the week after everyone preemptively shit on it after last weeks Broncos-Colts debacle. I have no idea which way I’m leaning here so I’m just going to talk myself into something while I write this. Let’s get into it.

The Spread: PK

You can get this line anywhere between a point on either side, but I’m going to roll with a pick’em for the purposes of this blog because that’s what my book has. You could give a million reasons as to why you’d take either of these teams here too that’s what makes this pick so difficult. The Commanders have looked terrible since their Week 1 win, although they did hang around with the Titans on Sunday which is at least encouraging. The Bears won a sloppy game against the 49ers and beat a lowly Texans team. Not a ton to write home about for either of these two. I think in a situation like this you have to look at what team has more talent and that is probably the Commanders. Offensively they still have three very good WRs and two good RBs. If Carson Wentz can limit mistakes and stop running around in the pocket like he has his shoes tied together, I think Washington can do enough to pull this one out. The Bears have come across as one dimensional this season and I think that will work against them. The Commanders defensive strength is their front four so if they can stifle the Bears rushing attack and force Justin Fields to beat them they can come out of Chicago with a much needed win. This feels like a spot to take the desperate team and especially one that the public is fading at 65%. Hop on the riverboat this is going to be a bumpy ride.

The Play: Commanders PK

Over/Under 38

This seems like another classic primetime under to get your week started. The number is so low it scares me a bit, but Soldier Field has also yielded 69% to the under since 2019. I’m skeptical here to take the under because it feels like one that we could lose quickly if there’s some early scoring. I’m going to bank on these offenses stalling for a large portion of this game though and begrudgingly take this under.

The Play: Under 38

Final Prediction

With my earlier predictions of Commanders PK and Under 38 give me the Commanders 17-14.