Jacksonville Jaguars (6-8) vs. New York Jets (7-7)

The Spread: Jets (-1)

Thursday Night we get a matchup between the top two picks in last years draft. This feels like it should be a spot where you’d want to buy low on the Jets and sell high on the Jags. I just don’t know if I can bring myself to do it though. The Jets have seemed to only either win or have close games with Zach Wilson at QB because the defense has stepped up in a big way in all of those games. If Mike White was playing I’d probably be on the Jets, but I think I have to keep up with my strategy of fading Mr. INT. Both these teams are fighting for their playoff lives too so I can’t use the desperation angle either. The Jags are potentially staring down a Week 18 winner takes all game versus the Titans for the division and, the Jets are squarely in the AFC wild card picture with some winnable games down the stretch. At the end of the day I just like the way the Jaguars are playing more right now. Trevor Lawrence seems to be coming into his own and this could be a signature primetime win for him.

The Play: Jaguars +1

Total (38)

I keep getting burned by Monday and Thursday overs. The last few have missed by just a few points. So I know if I switch it up and take the under they’ll score a million points in this game. The Jets defense is very good, but this number is so low they would’ve hit it in half their games this year even though they’ve only hit five overs this year. The Jaguars on the other hand would be 11-2-1 to this number this year in terms of the over. I know the cold will play a factor, but I’m riding with the over here.

The Play: Over 38

Final Prediction

Jaguars 24 Jets 20

Los Angeles Rams (4-9) vs. Green Bay Packers (5-8)

The Spread: Packers (-7.5)

I’m sick of having to make picks on these horrible standalone games, but here we go again. I hate this line for Green Bay, but they are the better team in this game especially at home. Sure the Rams had a nice win last Thursday, just don’t forget how bad they looked offensively leading up to those last two drives. I’m not ready to buy in on the Baker Mayfield hype train after two drives. The problem is I also have no trust in the Packers at this point either. They do matchup nicely with the Rams though. They are horrible against the run, but the Rams don’t run the ball well at all. At the end of the day I’d rather bet on Aaron Rodgers than roll the dice with the Rams. The Packers still have a very outside shot at the playoffs so they still have something to play for. The Rams are more or less eliminated and I can’t imagine their motivation will be high to play in the freezing cold at Lambeau. If you can get this down to 7 and not sacrifice your payout then maybe think about doing that to protect from a backdoor cover, but I think you have to go Packers here.

The Play: Packers -7.5

Total (39.5)

I had been all over the prime time unders and once they stopped hitting regularly I pivoted to the over. Well, that hasn’t gone so great for me lately. Looking at this I think I like the over, but I’m not sure how many points the Rams will actually be able to score. If we can get them in the mid to high teens I think we can cover the spread and the over. We’re going to need Baker to string together a couple nice drives here, but that number is just too low to pass up.

The Play: Over 39.5

Final Prediction

Packers 28 Rams 16

We get a whole weekend of NFL games this week. There are three standalone Saturday games to go along with our regular Sunday slate. Any game from this weekend is in play for this blog so let’s get into it.

Favorite

Lions (-1) vs. Jets

I think we just have to keep riding with the Lions right? They are one of the hottest teams in the NFL currently and even on the road I like the fact that they’re only giving one point. I was going to stay away from this game, but then I heard that the Jets medical staff is not clearing Mike White for this weekend and you know what that means. Mr. INT himself Zach Wilson is back. I think the Jets offense would’ve had a nice bounce back game against this Lions defense with Mike White, but I don’t think that’s possible with Wilson. I think the Lions offense keeps rolling and guts out a one score win on the road to get back to .500 and thrust themselves into the playoff picture.

Charlie Murphy’s Habitual Line Stepper of the Week (Underdog)

Colts (+3.5) vs. Vikings

This might look gross on paper, but I love it for some reason. I love myself a 3.5 point underdog. The thing is you have to make sure you get in on the right one. Like on Thursday I went with the 3.5 point favorite and you might see another one of those later in this blog, but I just feel like the Colts can keep this close. The Vikings aren’t blowing anyone out right now and I think if the Colts can get Jonathan Taylor going they’ll be right in this game. If that’s the case and they don’t have to ask Matt Ryan to do too much that’s a recipe for success. This seems like it’s going to be one of those bullshit Vikings games where they have a late score to win the game. It’ll be by a field goal or less though and the Colts will cover.

Over

Eagles vs. Bears (48.5)

These teams are tied (along with the Lions) for the best over record this season at 9-4. I like where this number is because we can get over it with 7 touchdowns. The Bears offense has done a great job at moving the ball lately and as you all know Justin Fields is really coming into his own. The Eagles are coming off a game against the Giants where they hit the over on their own as well. I think we get a lot of points in this game and even if the Bears offense stumbles and doesn’t score a lot the Eagles should be able to cover us against a subpar Chicago defense.

Under

Cardinals vs. Broncos (37)

I know, I know the Broncos under didn’t hit last week. We could be getting a Colt McCoy vs. Brett Rypien matchup though. Russell Wilson is still questionable with a concussion he sustained last week. Even if he does play though I still don’t trust them to score many points. The Cardinals offense was only able to muster up 13 points against the Patriots on Monday and I don’t think they’ll do any better versus the Broncos defense. This game ends with both teams in the teens.

The Definitely Not My Lock of the Week Bonus Pick

Bengals (-3.5) vs. Buccaneers

This is a spot where I normally would think about selling high on the Bengals and buying low on the Bucs. I just can’t bring myself to do it though. I think the Bengals are going to trounce Tampa Bay on Sunday. Joe Burrow is 17-3 ATS in his last 20 games. The Bucs are the worst ATS team in the NFL this year at 3-9-1. If the Bucs QB wasn’t named Tom Brady this line would be up to a touchdown. Bengals roll.

San Francisco 49ers (9-4) vs. Seattle Seahawks (7-6)

The Spread: 49ers (-3.5)

This game comes down to basically one thing and that is do you trust Brock Purdy to win this game by more than a field goal? The spread is past the key number of 3 which is making me question who to take here. There is no question who the better team in this matchup is, but the uncertainty at QB for the 49ers makes this game a difficult pick. Are we going to see Brocktober come back down to earth after an impressive performance last week against the Bucs? Probably, but that doesn’t mean he still can’t win this game. The 49ers defense abused the Seahawks in their last matchup and I’m guessing they do that again. Now, I think the Seahawks will find a way to put up some offensive points in this one unlike the last time these teams met when all they could muster was a blocked kick returned for a touchdown. I just don’t see them scoring that many. The public is going to be all over San Francisco so I hate doing this, but I think Brock Purdy leans on his defense and is able to do enough for the Niners to sneak out of Seattle with a victory.

The Play: 49ers -3.5

Total (43.5)

This total is right around where the 49ers have lived all season. The Seahawks have hung some crooked numbers in games this season, but have also thrown in a couple low scoring slugfests to keep us honest. The Seahawks defense has been porous as of late and I think that helps us get the over here. If San Francisco can keep humming offensively and the Seahawks just give us something this over should hit. Here’s to getting a competitive high scoring Thursday game for once.

The Play: Over 43.5

Final Prediction

49ers 28 Seahawks 17

New England Patriots (6-6) vs. Arizona Cardinals (4-8)

The Spread: Patriots (-2)

Plain and simple this is a must win game for the Patriots. With a win they can vault themselves back into the playoff picture as the 7 seed. With a loss they risk falling completely out of the race with games against the Bengals, Dolphins, and Bills remaining. I’d like to think this team still has some nuts on them and fights to win this game. Arizona has been horrendous at home ATS with Kliff Kingsbury (12-18). I know the Patriots have had trouble with mobile QBs this season, but I just can’t envision a scenario where Kingsbury outcoaches Belichick in a game with the whole world watching. I’ll leave you with this, one team has something to play for and one is eyeballing the draft order. Take the team fighting for a playoff spot.

The Play: Patriots -2

Total (43.5)

Eight of Arizona’s games this season would’ve hit this total including their last six. The Patriots only would have been at this number five times so far this year. I like the over here. Defensively Arizona has not been good this year and the Patriots have been able to find success against subpar defenses. Think about how the offense looked against Minnesota. I think we see more of that in this game from New England. The Cardinals should be able to do their part in hitting this low total. If the Patriots can score into the mid-20’s this should hit.

The Play: Over 43.5

Final Prediction

Patriots 26 Cardinals 20

Here we go with another set of picks for Sunday. Last week we went 3-2 again. Above .500 is great, but I’m ready to finally hit a 5-0 week.

Favorite

Lions (-2) vs. Vikings

This is probably dumb, but I love it. This is a rat line for sure just like when the Cowboys were favored over the Vikings a few weeks back. Only difference with that is the Cowboys were 6-3 heading into that game and not 5-7. This feels like Vegas baiting everyone into taking the points, but I’m not falling for it. They know something and that something is the fact that the Lions are actually a good competent team now. They’ve won four of five and even almost beat the Bills on Thanksgiving. Their offense looked unstoppable last week and if they can keep that momentum going I can totally see them getting the win at home. I’m also a noted Kirk Cousins/Vikings hater so take that for what you will. Let’s go Lions.

Charlie Murphy’s Habitual Line Stepper of the Week (Underdog)

Jets (+10) vs. Bills

I hate how much I love the Jets in this spot and that’s mostly because I hate them as a franchise. I just keep rubbing my eyes every time I look at this line to make sure I’m seeing it correctly. 10 points? I know the Bills are at home, but this is a team they LOST TO five weeks ago and that was with Zach Wilson at QB. I just don’t see how the Bills are that many points better than a lot of teams right now the way they’ve been playing. Mike White seems to have a knack for keeping the Jets in games and I think their defense will do enough to limit the Bills offense. Buffalo probably comes out of this game with the win, but by less than 10.

Over

Seahawks vs. Panthers (44)

I know what a gross game right? I’m not really feeling any of the overs this week so I’m going to put my faith in Geno Smith and hope the Seahawks keep delivering high scoring games. They would have hit this number seven times this season so far. I’m feeling like its going to be a good day for Geno after a scare against the Rams last week. On the other side of the ball Sam Darnold has to do something to prove he’s a worthy starter and the best way to do that is throw the ball a ton and put some points on the board. The Seahawks need this game to stay in the playoff hunt so look for them to get going early and put this one away quick. That sounds like an over to me.

Under

Eagles vs. Giants (44.5)

You’re probably all thinking the same thing right? Where are the Broncos? Just wait we’ll get to them. I’m a fan of this under as well. This number has steadily been coming down too so grab it while you can, but it’s also a good indicator that the money is coming in on the under. The Giants have been under this number nine times in twelve games and have not had a game total in the 50’s yet this season. The Eagles while not an under team this year have been under this total five times this season. I like the Giants to keep this low scoring and even if the Eagles run away with it I don’t see the Giants putting up enough points to get the over.

The Definitely Not My Lock of the Week Bonus Pick

Broncos vs. Chiefs (Under 44)

Two unders? Who am I? I can’t have a card without a Broncos under and I liked the Eagles and Giants under a lot so I figured why not have two? If I’m getting a Broncos under in the mid-40’s I’m taking it all day. I don’t care if they’re playing the Chiefs. The Broncos offense is so pathetic the Chiefs could score 31 points in this game and the under will still hit. The Broncos defense is still very good so if they can just slow down the Kansas City offense a bit this should hit easily.

Las Vegas Raiders (5-7) vs. Los Angeles Rams (3-9)

The Spread: Raiders (-6)

It’s crazy how all of these Thursday Night games later in the season have turned into complete snooze fest games. Even when we get a good matchup on paper like we had last week the game ends up sucking. Anyways, there is always the ability to make some money on these games so let’s talk about how we can do that. These two teams come into this game trending in opposite directions. The Raiders are winners of three straight and the Rams have lost six in a row. Los Angeles is still dealing with some pretty significant injuries and has effectively shut down Matthew Stafford for the remainder of the season. Presumably that means we’ll see John Wolford at QB once again. That is unless Sean McVay wants to go crazy and start newly acquired Baker Mayfield just two days after claiming him off waivers. This uncertainty alone should be enough for the Raiders to win this game though. They have thrust themselves back into the playoff picture and desperately need a win here to keep those hopes alive. I like this line for the Raiders at less than a touchdown anything more and I worry they won’t be able to cover. This comes down to the fact that I think the Rams have completely given up and the Raiders still have something to play for. I think Vegas jumps on them early and coasts to victory to get within striking distance in the AFC.

The Play: Raiders -6

Total (44)

This is a tough one and could definitely go either way. It looks like the majority of the money and bets are coming in on the over, but I’m just not sold on that. The Rams offense is bad and I know the Raiders defense isn’t any good, but it’s John Wolford we’re talking about. I see the Raiders getting an early lead and taking their foot off the gas offensively. They could comfortably win this game with 24 points I think and if that’s the case you have to roll with the under.

The Play: Under 44

Final Prediction

Raiders 28 Rams 10

New Orleans Saints (4-8) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-6)

The Spread: Buccaneers (-3)

Another Monday Night game that looked great on paper early in the season that has turned into a completely trash game. I really don’t have a read on this game either. Both teams have been awful this season. The Bucs just lost to the Browns and the Saints got shut out by the 49ers. Neither team is coming into this one with much momentum. Tom Brady’s Bucs have struggled against the Saints in his time in Tampa, but that was the Sean Payton Saints. He’s 1-0 against Dennis Allen winning in Week 2 20-10. Everything that made sense about these two teams trends wise is contradicts itself now. Like the fact that Brady is 2-10 ATS in night games with Tampa. You’d think that would make the Saints more enticing, but no Andy Dalton is 9-17 ATS in Primetime. I don’t understand why the Saints won’t just play Jameis, but we’ll save that for another time. As for this game the line has come down considerably as it was at 6.5 on the lookahead. I think with a crap game like this you should just take the points. Buy a half point if it doesn’t ruin your payout. 8:15 is past Tom Brady’s bedtime. Go Saints here.

The Play: Saints +3

Total (41)

The Bucs are an under team this year and the Saints have been under this number in 4 of their last 5. With all the injuries the Bucs are facing on their offensive line combined with the fact that Dennis Allen refuses to play anyone but Andy Dalton at QB makes me think this game should go under. The Bucs are 9-2 to the under this year the only team to hit more unders is the Broncos who have hit 11 out of 12 (insane). I think we see the offenses struggle to put up points like in their first matchup.

The Play: Under 41

Final Prediction

Saints 21 Buccaneers 16

Here we go again. Another Sunday, another five picks coming at you. Last week we finished 3-2 on Sunday. Not bad, but it’s about time we hit a 5-0. Let’s go.

Favorite

Lions (Pk) vs. Jaguars

Alright I know this is kind of cheating. My book has this at a pick’em, but the Lions are favored on other publications so they’re going to count as a favorite here. I think this is fairly simple. The Lions played great on Thanksgiving against a really good team and if Josh Allen didn’t turn into Superman on that last drive and get the Bills in field goal range that game was headed for OT. The Jags on the other hand had a lot of things break their way down the stretch in their win against the Ravens. A win’s a win, but that formula isn’t sustainable. Go with the Lions here at home.

Charlie Murphy’s Habitual Line Stepper of the Week (Underdog)

Steelers (+1) vs. Falcons

Back to the well again with the underdog Steelers. Like I said in Monday’s blog this team is completely different when TJ Watt is on the field. He changes everything for Pittsburgh. I like this spot for them as a road underdog. Atlanta was a cash cow through the first 6 weeks going 6-0 ATS. Since then though not so much. They’ve gone 1-5 in their last 6 ATS. Atlanta has played some tight games recently, but have found a way to Falcons themselves (yes that’s a verb) in most of those games. I like Pittsburgh to win in a tight one. You can take the point for tie-insurance if you want or grab the money line for a little more juice.

Over

Chargers vs. Raiders (50)

This is one of those games that seems like a no brainer which I don’t love, but this feels like it should hit pretty easily. The Raiders are playing every game into overtime now for some reason and the Chargers are typically a high scoring team. If Mike Williams makes his way back onto the field that will be huge for the over as well. I think the way the Raiders are playing offensively (and the fact that they don’t play defense) bodes well for the over.

Under

Broncos vs. Ravens (39.5)

You guessed it we’re doing Broncos unders again. The Ravens won’t put up a ton of points against a good Denver defense and let’s face it the Broncos offense probably won’t be doing much of anything. I will continue to blindly take these unders until they start losing.

The Definitely Not My Lock of the Week Bonus Pick

Titans (+4.5) vs. Eagles

Derrick Henry should have a field day in this game. I know Jordan Davis might play and that changes how the Eagles do things defensively especially when it comes to stopping the run, but this feels like a trap for Philly. Mike Vrabel is 21-7 ATS and 19-9 SU as more than a field goal underdog. You can’t argue with those numbers. I know this is kind of a public pussy pick now, but it was at one time the sharpest move this weekend. I’m still rolling with it.

Buffalo Bills (8-3) vs. New England Patriots (6-5)

The Spread: Bills (-4)

I mean all seven people reading this blog know who I’m going to pick, but the Patriots getting points at home has always been a recipe for success. The Bills have come back down to earth a bit recently after a hot start. They are still a very good team though and that offense can be deadly if it gets rolling early. I expect the Patriots to do what most underdogs do against a good team like the Bills and that’s play to their strengths. They’ll have to run the ball and keep the Bills offense on the sidelines. If they are able to do that I think they hang around and even potentially come out with the win. The Patriots are the more desperate team here as well and that needs to be taken into account. They can’t risk losing this game to fall to .500 with five games to go and a tough schedule still on the horizon. Expect New England to come out and play hard right from the jump to take advantage of Buffalo’s slow starts.

The Play: Patriots +4

Total (43.5)

If you like the Pats in this game you probably like the under as well. New England does not want to turn this into a shootout against this Bills offense. That’s a battle you’re not going to win most of the time. Like I said above and countless other times I’ve taken an underdog in primetime. Expect them to run the ball and eat the clock. That usually leads to a lower scoring game.

The Play: Under 43.5

Final Prediction

Patriots 20 Bills 17