It’s finally playoff time in the NFL. Before we get into the picks for each game I wanted to give a rundown on how I fared in the regular season with my picks:

Overall: 83-67-5 (55.16%) (2 canceled bets from Bills/Bengals)

• Thursday: ATS- 11-8 Total- 7-8-1
• Monday: ATS- 12-5 Total- 7-6-2
• Monday/Thursday: ATS- 23-13
• Favorite: 11-5-1
• Charlie Murphy’s Habitual Line Stepper of the Week (Underdog): 11-9
• Over: 8-9
• Under: 10-7
• Definitely Not My Lock of the Week: 6-10-1 (*all “lock” bets were ATS except 1)
• ATS Overall: 51-36-2
• Totals Overall: 32-31-3

Not terrible for having to shoehorn certain picks that maybe weren’t my favorite. It also seems that I tended to forget that I was supposed to be doing a lock of the week and picked the other four first and left that pick in no mans land. Anyways, next year I’ll probably adjust the format, but that’s not on my mind right now. Let’s get into the Wild Card slate where I’ll be giving one pick for each game.

Seahawks vs. 49ers (-9.5) (42.5)

I like the 49ers way too much for my own good right now. Their defense is championship caliber and Kyle Shanahan has done a good job at hiding Brock Purdy and playing to the strengths of his weapons on offense. The Seahawks faltered down the stretch, but still found a way into the playoffs thanks to the Lions win in Green Bay last Sunday. Nothing about the way they have been playing lately though makes me think they can win this game. Their offense hasn’t looked at all like what it did in the first half of the season and playing against this 49ers defense won’t help that cause. On the other side of the ball the 49ers have shown they can score enough against the Seahawks defense to cover this spread. They only won by 8 in their last matchup, but that game was played in Seattle. Not to mention they have scored over 30 points in 5 of their last 6 games. With home field advantage and momentum on their side San Francisco is the team to back in the playoff opener.

The Play: 49ers -9.5

Chargers (-2.5) vs. Jaguars (47.5)

This should be a close and competitive game. Potentially the best of the weekend. Jacksonville has surged into the playoffs on the heels of 5 straight wins. I just don’t know how sustainable that is for a team that still lacks the talent of a true contender. The Jags have been a fun team this year and I wish I felt stronger about them in this game, but unfortunately I don’t. The problem with that is the team on the other side of the ball doesn’t instill much confidence either. The Chargers have a rich history of fucking things up so I’m nervous to take them. What I do like though is that they finally seem to be reaching their potential, or at least what the media thought their potential should be. They also boast a very talented offense, one unlike the Jaguars have seen in the last few weeks. Jacksonville’s last three wins have come against Josh Dobbs, Davis Mills, and Zach Wilson. Not really a who’s who of talent there. That’s not to say they haven’t beaten anyone good, but I think the Chargers are bringing more firepower than they’ve seen recently. The line also plays a big factor here. I do think this will be a close game so to get this under 3 points is huge. This will come right down to the wire and the Chargers will come away with a one score victory.

The Play: Chargers -2.5

Dolphins vs. Bills (-13.5) (43.5)

This is going to be a whoopin’. The Dolphins will start Skylar Thompson for the second straight week with Tua and Teddy Bridgewater still on the shelf. The Bills offense appears to still be firing on all cylinders and I don’t think Miami will have much of an answer for it. Last time these teams faced off it was a 3 point game, but that game was started by Tua, and the Dophins gave up 32 points. I like the Bills to find themselves somewhere in the low 30’s on Sunday and if you think the Fins won’t score more than 17 (which I don’t think they will) then you have to go Bills here.

The Play: Bills -13.5

Giants vs. Vikings (-3) (48)

Just a few weeks ago this was a very competitive game that came down to a last second field goal by the Vikings to win it. I feel like we’re in for the same type of game, so I like the Giants to keep this close again. Kirk Cousins is 48-37-2 ATS at 1 pm or earlier and 21-32 ATS at 4 pm or later. I’ll take my chances with those odds. The Vikings are also 11-0 in one score games this season. Usually when you see teams squeaking out wins like that there will be a correction at some point. Whether that happens in the playoffs or the following season it will happen. The Vikings have gotten by winning some really tight and even straight up lucky games (think the Bills game) while all four of their losses have been by double digits. I’m not saying the Giants are going to go into Minneapolis and blow out the Vikings. This will be a close game and one the Giants can win. If Daniel Jones can take care of the football the Giants get the run game going with Saquon Barkley I like their chances Sunday afternoon.

The Play: Giants +3

Ravens vs. Bengals (-9) (40.5)

I’m waffling between two picks for this one. I don’t see any way the Bengals lose, but there is the possibility the Ravens keep this close because of their defense. Anthony Brown looks to be the starter for the Ravens if Tyler Huntley can’t go. Taking that into account the under looks juicy here too. I just don’t like how low the number is. These teams put up a combined 43 points just last week. Since Lamar has gone out though, 5 of the Ravens last 6 games have gone under 40 points. In fact none have gone over 30 besides the Bengals game. I would lean Bengals on the spread, but the Ravens defense makes me nervous with a 9 point line. The Ravens have only lost by more than 10 twice this year so they would’ve covered this spread in 15 of 17 games. I think with the uncertainties around the Quarterback position for the Ravens and the line where it’s at the under is a bit safer. If Huntley is able to go I still like the under and the line might move up a bit if you wanted to wait on this bet. You’re going to have to sweat it out, but it’s the play.

The Play: Under 40.5

Cowboys (-2.5) vs. Buccaneers (45.5)

The Buccaneers have not been good this year and they’ve been even worse ATS (4-12-1), but I love them in this spot for some reason. The Cowboys looked awful last week and while you can take that with a grain of salt you have to acknowledge Dak Prescott’s interception problem this year. He tied with Davis Mills for the NFL lead with 15 interceptions. If that’s not bad enough Mills played 15 games this year and Dak only played in 12. You can’t win in the playoffs if you turn the ball over and Dak hasn’t shown he can keep a clean sheet this year. Let’s also not forget that Tom Brady is lining up under center for the other team. He hasn’t looked like himself, but it’s still Tom Brady we’re talking about. I don’t think he has another magical Super Bowl run in him, but I have 20 years experience rooting for Brady when he was on the Pats and let me tell you this is the exact type of bullshit game he wins. As long as Todd Bowles doesn’t fuck anything up (BIG if) if you’re giving Brady points at home in the playoffs I’m taking it.

The Play: Buccaneers +2.5

We finally made it to Week 18 of the NFL season. With games on Saturday and Sunday this weekend everything is fair game for this post. This seems like an impossible week to handicap. I’m not sure there’s much I like at all with this slate, but we’ll see. I will note I won’t be giving plays for the Patriots-Bills and Bengals-Ravens games. There’s just too much up in the air right now for both of those teams at the moment. With that being said let’s dive in.

Favorite

Vikings (-5.5) vs. Bears

I don’t think I’ve bet on the Vikings all year, but this seems like a pretty good spot for them. I hate almost every favorite this weekend too so this has been tough to call for me. I’m guessing the Vikings will be playing their starters for at least half of this game because they are still playing for seeding. The Bears on the other hand are in full blown tank mode for the second pick (or the first) and are starting Nathan Peterman at QB. I think getting Minnesota by less than a TD makes sense here. Roll with the Vikes.

Charlie Murphy’s Habitual Line Stepper of the Week (Underdog)

Rams (+6.5) vs. Seahawks

I know this is a win and maybe in situation for the Seahawks, but 6.5 seems like a lot of points for a Seattle team that hasn’t played that great recently. I think there’s also something to be said for LA playing to keep a division rival out of the playoffs. The Rams also don’t have their first round pick so they aren’t motivated to lose either. Seattle might win, but I think by a field goal would be more realistic.

Over

Lions vs. Packers (49)

This should be a fun matchup to close the regular season. I was tempted to go with the Lions spread, but I’d rather see how the line reacts after the Seahawks game earlier in the day. Detroit has been an over team all year. I think Green Bay has no trouble scoring against the Lions defense and I think the Detroit offense will put up plenty of points. I see both teams in the high 20’s at the end of this one.

Under

Browns vs. Steelers (40.5)

The Browns have been a big under team since Deshaun Watson returned and I don’t think that changes on Sunday. The Steelers defense has been very good since TJ Watt’s return and their offense has only averaged 17.9 PPG this season. Have to go under here.

The Definitely Not My Lock of the Week Bonus Pick

Raiders (+9) vs. Chiefs

Same idea as last week with Kansas City. They keep getting these inflated lines because of how good they are, but 9 points to a team you beat by 1 earlier this season? That’s a bit much. I know the Chiefs have everything to play for with the 1 seed on the line and the Raiders have been eliminated, but they seem like a team that’s not going to roll over and die late in the season. They almost beat the 49ers last week and played hard. I think they hang around in this game much like the Broncos did with the Chiefs last week.

So there you have it. The last blog of the regular season. I’m not going to lie I didn’t think I’d end up making a post for every weekend, Monday, and Thursday, but here we are. Thank you to everyone (all seven of you) that read these blogs each week and played (or faded) my picks. It means a lot and hopefully you made some money along the way. This isn’t the end of the road though. I’ll be back next week with a play for all 6 Wild Card Weekend games so keep your eyes peeled. Thanks Again.

-Jake

Buffalo Bills (12-3) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (11-4)

The Spread: Bills (-2)

The last standalone Monday/Thursday game of the year figures to be the best one yet. Buffalo travels to Cincinnati for a game with massive playoff implications. I’ve gone over this pick in my head a bunch over the last week and I’m still having trouble figuring out which way I’m leaning. The Bengals have been absolute monsters ATS this season, but when is the right time to jump off the train with them? I think tonight might be the night for it. Buffalo is the best team they are going to play so far this year (yes, even better than KC) and I feel like the Bengals are trending towards a letdown after basically only playing two halves of football in their last two games (2nd half vs Bucs and 1st half vs Pats). They can’t afford to sleepwalk through 30 minutes of this game or they’ll find themselves in a hole they won’t be able to dig out of. If the Bills want the AFC to go through Orchard Park it starts with a win tonight in Cincinnati.

The Play: Bills -2

Total (50.5)

I mean with all the crap games we’ve dealt with in primetime this year wouldn’t it be great to end on an absolute shootout? Neither of these teams have necessarily been over teams this year, in fact, they’ve both only hit the over five times a piece. Still though I’m feeling like we’re going to get some points tonight. This has all them makings of a high scoring back and forth game. A little Week 17 appetizer for the playoffs. Give me the over.

The Play: Over 50.5

Final Prediction

Bills 31 Bengals 28

Two Sundays to go. Last week we we’re 4-1. Still chasing that 5-0 week though. Let’s get into it.

Favorite

Packers (-3) vs. Vikings

I know Green Bay is -3.5 on a lot of books, but I’m getting them at -3 on mine so that’s the line I’m going with. This is similar to the Lions-Vikings game a couple weeks ago. Why is a 7-8 team favored over a 12-3 team? The Vikings have found themselves as underdogs with a better record twice so far this year against Detroit and Dallas and they are 0-2 SU/ATS in those games. Keeping with that trend I’m going Packers here.

Charlie Murphy’s Habitual Line Stepper of the Week (Underdog)

Broncos (+12.5) vs. Chiefs

This could be dumb, but this line seems inflated to me. While the Broncos did get blown out on Christmas Day they did play the Chiefs to a 6 point game a couple weeks ago. In fact aside from the Christmas game the only other game where the Broncos wouldn’t have covered this spread was a 13 point loss to the Panthers. The Chiefs also aren’t covering spreads like they used to. They’re 5-9-1 ATS this season despite their 12-3 record mostly due to inflated lines like this. I think the Broncos can keep this just close enough to cover here.

Over

Rams vs. Chargers (42.5)

This seems oddly low for a total. The Rams offense seems to have found a bit of footing with Baker Mayfield at QB and, the Chargers offense having both Mike Williams and Keenan Allen back will help the scoring in this one. I don’t think it’s unreasonable to see both of these teams in the low-mid 20s. 24-21 gets this done with a couple points to spare. Sounds easy enough right?

Under

Browns vs. Commanders (40.5)

A struggling Deshaun Watson against a good defense? My old friend Carson Wentz getting the nod? This screams under to me. I think the Commanders win a low scoring, slow, run dominant game to keep their playoff hopes alive.

The Definitely Not My Lock of the Week Bonus Pick

Bears (+6) vs. Lions

Probably another dumb pick here, but I like the Bears to cover this spread. I rode the Lions right into the ground last week as their ATS streak came to an end at the hands of the Panthers. I don’t see how the Lions should be giving 6 points to anyone despite their recent success. The Bears have been able to hang around in a lot of games lately as well. This seems like one of those Bears games this year where they give up a late lead and lose by a score. Lions win Bears cover.

Dallas Cowboys (11-4) vs. Tennessee Titans (7-8)

The Spread: Cowboys (-10.5)

The final Thursday Night game of the season is another absolute dud. I’ll keep this one short. I don’t love favorites over 10 points, but you have to take the Cowboys. The Titans have nothing to play for in this game. Win or lose they will be playing for the division in Week 18 against the Jaguars. I can only imagine they will be resting a ton of players as they have been ravaged by injuries lately. Malik Willis is also just not good at this point. It’s early in his career and maybe he’ll turn it around next year, but he’s not the answer right now. The Cowboys still have a slimmer of hope at winning the division and, the fact that they play on Thursday and the Eagles play Sunday (so the Eagles wouldn’t already have won and clinched the division) makes me think they’ll still be plenty motivated for this one. If you can get this at 10 or 9.5 I love this line, but regardless you still have to go Cowboys here.

The Play: Cowboys -10.5

Total (40)

This is tough. To take the under here would mean either the Cowboys aren’t going to score enough points to cover the spread or the Titans aren’t going to score much if at all. I’ll lean towards the latter here. If Derrick Henry can’t get cooking the Titans have nothing on offense. Dallas runs away with this early, go under here.

The Play: Under 40

Final Prediction

Cowboys 30 Titans 7

Los Angeles Chargers (8-6) vs. Indianapolis Colts (4-9-1)

The Spread: Chargers (-4.5)

I feel like I’m walking into a trap here. There’s no reason the Chargers should lose this game or it should even be close. Nick Foles is starting at QB for the Colts and I’m not sure if that makes me feel any better. I do like the fact that it could spark something on offense for the Colts though. The Colts defense has also been good this year for the most part. Obviously the big comeback last week doesn’t look great, but overall they’ve been able to keep the Colts in games this year. Call me crazy, but I think the Indy can keep this one close. I don’t know if I trust the Chargers to cover this big of a spread. They would have only covered 4 or 4.5 points as a favorite 3 times this season. The Colts on the other hand would’ve covered this number 8 times this season. I know it’s a risk jumping on the Colts in Nick Foles first start of the year, but there isn’t a lot of tape on him at QB in Indy and that could be a factor. The Colts keep this one closer than you’d think.

The Play: Colts +4.5

Total (46)

This basically comes down to if you think the Colts defense can slow down the Chargers. Based off my pick for the spread obviously that’s where I think this game is headed. I think the Colts can keep the Chargers in check and a Nick Foles led offense probably isn’t going to be putting up a ton of points tonight. If the Colts cover this will be a low scoring game. Go under here.

The Play: Under 46

Final Prediction

Chargers 20 Colts 17

Same as last week we have two days of NFL football this weekend. Every game besides the Monday Night game is on the table for these picks. I’m in a holiday time crunch here we’re going rapid fire. Let’s get into it.

Favorite

Steelers (-2) vs. Raiders

This is the night game on Saturday and I know everyone wants something to bet on during their Christmas Eve party and that should be the Steelers. The Steelers have looked solid the last few weeks and they get Kenny Pickett back for this one. I like Pittsburgh at home and this feels like a classic let down spot for the Raiders after last weeks win. Mike Tomlin has also never had a losing season as Steelers head coach. With a loss this would be his first, but I think he keeps his over .500 hopes alive for another week.

Charlie Murphy’s Habitual Line Stepper of the Week (Underdog)

Packers (+3.5) vs. Dolphins

Miami is trending in the wrong direction at the wrong time. They desperately need a win here and they might get it, but I think this is a close game. Like last Monday the Packers still have something to play for and while they need a lot to break their way they still have a chance. They also seem to have found some sort of rhythm offensively. I like this at 3.5 I’m not so sure I’d jump on it any lower than 3 though.

Over

Eagles vs. Cowboys (46.5)

I like this number where it is. Even with Gardner Minshew at QB for the Eagles I think this is a high scoring game. This game is also in Dallas and won’t be effected by the weather this weekend. Dallas has put up some big numbers lately and the Eagles offense has looked great all season. I think we see both teams in the high 20’s to hit this over.

Under

Saints vs. Browns (32)

This is a preposterously low under so I have to take it. It’s going to be a mess in Cleveland with this storm coming through and both of these offenses suck. You’ll see maybe five minutes of this game on redzone Sunday it’s going to stink that sounds like an under to me.

The Definitely Not My Lock of the Week Bonus Pick

Lions (-2.5) vs. Panthers

Even on the road I love the Lions here. They Panthers have had a few nice wins this season, but haven’t been able to get over the hump and catch the Bucs in the division race. With the Commanders playing the 49ers and the Seahawks playing the Chiefs the Lions are primed to jump into a playoff spot with a win. I’m going to continue riding the hot hand and roll with the Lions. Lock it in.

Jacksonville Jaguars (6-8) vs. New York Jets (7-7)

The Spread: Jets (-1)

Thursday Night we get a matchup between the top two picks in last years draft. This feels like it should be a spot where you’d want to buy low on the Jets and sell high on the Jags. I just don’t know if I can bring myself to do it though. The Jets have seemed to only either win or have close games with Zach Wilson at QB because the defense has stepped up in a big way in all of those games. If Mike White was playing I’d probably be on the Jets, but I think I have to keep up with my strategy of fading Mr. INT. Both these teams are fighting for their playoff lives too so I can’t use the desperation angle either. The Jags are potentially staring down a Week 18 winner takes all game versus the Titans for the division and, the Jets are squarely in the AFC wild card picture with some winnable games down the stretch. At the end of the day I just like the way the Jaguars are playing more right now. Trevor Lawrence seems to be coming into his own and this could be a signature primetime win for him.

The Play: Jaguars +1

Total (38)

I keep getting burned by Monday and Thursday overs. The last few have missed by just a few points. So I know if I switch it up and take the under they’ll score a million points in this game. The Jets defense is very good, but this number is so low they would’ve hit it in half their games this year even though they’ve only hit five overs this year. The Jaguars on the other hand would be 11-2-1 to this number this year in terms of the over. I know the cold will play a factor, but I’m riding with the over here.

The Play: Over 38

Final Prediction

Jaguars 24 Jets 20

Los Angeles Rams (4-9) vs. Green Bay Packers (5-8)

The Spread: Packers (-7.5)

I’m sick of having to make picks on these horrible standalone games, but here we go again. I hate this line for Green Bay, but they are the better team in this game especially at home. Sure the Rams had a nice win last Thursday, just don’t forget how bad they looked offensively leading up to those last two drives. I’m not ready to buy in on the Baker Mayfield hype train after two drives. The problem is I also have no trust in the Packers at this point either. They do matchup nicely with the Rams though. They are horrible against the run, but the Rams don’t run the ball well at all. At the end of the day I’d rather bet on Aaron Rodgers than roll the dice with the Rams. The Packers still have a very outside shot at the playoffs so they still have something to play for. The Rams are more or less eliminated and I can’t imagine their motivation will be high to play in the freezing cold at Lambeau. If you can get this down to 7 and not sacrifice your payout then maybe think about doing that to protect from a backdoor cover, but I think you have to go Packers here.

The Play: Packers -7.5

Total (39.5)

I had been all over the prime time unders and once they stopped hitting regularly I pivoted to the over. Well, that hasn’t gone so great for me lately. Looking at this I think I like the over, but I’m not sure how many points the Rams will actually be able to score. If we can get them in the mid to high teens I think we can cover the spread and the over. We’re going to need Baker to string together a couple nice drives here, but that number is just too low to pass up.

The Play: Over 39.5

Final Prediction

Packers 28 Rams 16