First off, I just wanna say thank god I didn’t write a blog for Thursday. Whatever slanderous nonsense I would’ve spewed out would’ve only added insult to injury of the money we lost. I mean I actually said Washington -13.5 for a primetime game. But hey like I said last week Bick’s Picks is about arbitrary biases and having a short memory. So much like [Field Goal Boy] Ron Rivera forgetting about his timeouts let’s forget about those L’s and dive into some picks.

Life’s Too Short to Bet the Under

Jaguars @ Bills (48.5) (London)

I won’t lie it took me a minute to truly find an over I loved like I did last week. I bounced around for a bit, but inevitably always found myself looking at London. The way I see it, I’ve [Josh Allen] been slinging it in recent weeks so I feel confident I’ll put 35 on my own. Then on the flip side Mr. Ed and friends essentially have relocated to England, so I think the extra rest and lack of travel will work in their favor. Gimme a shootout and an easy win to start my Sunday. [Editors Note: Tottenham Stadium is 5-1 to the Over]

Dogging It

Bengals @ Cardinals (+3)

As avid readers of Bick’s Picks would know we have several pillars of integrity including, but not limited to, plums, bias, and a short memory. Today we reveal another pillar and that’s the pillar of accountability. Some say it’s the most important ability, but we all know that’s availability. Either way the point is MY bad. I know I’m not 100% to blame for the Patriots loss, but I’m definitely a little to blame. So like Atlas I’ll shoulder that blame and promise to never pick the Pats again*. Now that I’ve appeased the editor on to the pick. Simply put I don’t like the Bungles. Burrow isn’t right and they’re just an ugly team to watch. Meanwhile football Charlie V [Josh Dobbs] [Reference to UCONN legend and fellow alopecia gang member Charlie Villanueva] and the Cards are the type of scrappy underdogs this whole segment is built around. Cards cover and maybe win.

Bick’s Stone Cold Lock of the Century of the Week

Giants @ Dolphins (-12.5)

Now I know what you’re saying -12.5?? Didn’t you learn your lesson Thursday? And the answer is no, of course I didn’t. This goldfish is whistling past my graveyard of bets and hammering this spread. Giants OL is in shambles, Barkley is still hurt, Daniel Jones is Daniel Jones again, and Daboll is looking more and more like McAdoo by the week. There’s some concern with the Dolphins OL but that’s just me trying to come up with a reason the Giants hang around. Fins roll easy money.

I’ve reached my breaking point. I’m sick of getting crushed every weekend and it’s made writing these significantly less fun. My head isn’t in it anymore and it’s effecting my picks. So I need to step away for now. I will be back, but I will be taking an indefinite leave from my Betting Guides. This feels like a chore to me now, like something I have to do, and not something that I do for fun. This doesn’t mean I won’t be gambling. I just won’t be giving out horrible advice on who to take.

I’ve lost my love for writing these posts and I need to find it again. So like Jordan in ’93 I’m stepping away for now, and just like Jordan in ’95 I’ll be back. I’m just not sure when. Maybe it’ll be when I can get a read on a fucking game for once because I haven’t all year. So I want to apologize to all seven of you that read this and fade my picks. I’ll be sure to still tell you who I’m taking every week.

So long, for now…

Lions (-2.5) vs. Packers (45.5)

As I start typing this post I just want it on record that I still have no idea who to take in this game. I could throw a dart at these two teams and would probably be a more sound strategy than whatever I come up with. I do think the Lions are the more talented team, but them playing at Lambeau worries me. I know they won that Week 18 game last year, but still, they don’t have the greatest track record there. Both teams are a little banged up as well so the under could also be in play. With Aaron Jones and Christian Watson on track to play and the fact that the Lions offense can be dangerous I’d rather stay away from that though. I think if the Packers are getting points at home in a pretty even matchup like this you have to take them. I came into this leaning Lions, but this game could be a pick’em as far as I’m concerned so I’ll take the home dog.

The Play: Packers +2.5

It’s been a busy day so I have to go rapid fire here with the picks.

Eagles (-5.5) vs. Buccaneers (44.5)

The Bucs have been frisky so far this year and the Eagles have let inferior teams hang around to this point. I don’t quite think Tampa wins this game, but it should be close so I’m taking the points.

The Play: Buccaneers +5.5

Rams vs. Bengals (-3) (45.5)

This basically all hinges on Joe Burrow’s availability. We still don’t know if he is playing. If he does will he be effective though? The Rams have looked good so far this year so, I’ll take the points again here and if Burrow doesn’t play that’s a bonus.

The Play: Rams +3

Texans (+8.5) vs. Jaguars

I’m going back to the well with Houston again this week. These divisional games are always tight and I think this will be no different. Jacksonville is going to be a popular survival pool pick this week, but I think I’m staying away from them this week because I like Houston a lot here. As bad as they’ve been they’ve played the Jags tough in recent years. I expect that to continue. Let’s here it one time for my boy CJ Stroud. Texans cover, sprinkle the ML if you’re feeling frisky too.

Falcons (+3) vs. Lions

Even though they burned me last week I like the Falcons again. Desmond Ridder is not the answer at QB, but he’s at least been able to keep them in games and they have a 2-0 record to show for it. I’m betting against the Lions hype train again as well. I can see Atlanta putting up a ton of points this week on a Detroit defense that got gashed by the Seahawks last week. If you can buy this line up to 3.5 without killing your payout I like it even better. In fact, that’s probably what I’ll end up doing. Could also be another ML sprinkle candidate depending on the payout. Either way Atlanta covers.

Panthers (+5.5) vs. Seahawks

Yup, that’s right another road dog. This is a sell high spot on Seattle. They’re coming off a huge win in Detroit last week and they’re facing a backup QB? Seems like it should be an easy win, but they should not be getting this many points. I’m not sure if I’m comfortable enough to throw something on the ML here, but this is a team that kept it within 3 with New Orleans on Monday. I don’t think there’s much of a difference between them and Seattle. I also don’t think Andy Dalton gives you that much less than Bryce Young right now. If you can get the Panthers up at 6 or 6.5 I like it even better.

Steelers vs. Raiders (-2.5)

So after I lose all my money I’m going to need some juice on the Sunday Night game. I’m also going against my road dog “strategy” from earlier and riding with the home favorite. Just like I’m selling high on Seattle I’m doing the same with the Steelers. I typically bet Mike Tomlin as a dog, but I don’t love them Sunday night. The Raiders are a bit more alive than people thought they’d be too and Jimmy G finds ways to win games like this. I’m also buying low on them after getting blown out last week vs. Buffalo. Give me the Raiders to finish off my Sunday with (hopefully) a winning record.

I think I might start titling these posts “Picks You Should Fade.” Because had you been doing that the last two weeks you would’ve made some serious cash. So what are we rewarded with this Thursday? A double digit spread! We know how much I love those. Time to try and make sense of it.

Giants vs. 49ers (-10) (44)

I’m not really sure what to make of the Giants at this point. They got absolutely decimated for the first six quarters of the season. Then they made a furious comeback to win a game they were surely all but dead in, albeit against one of the worst teams in the league. The Niners on the other hand have looked very good this year, and would be 2-0 ATS if the spread god Sean McVay hadn’t kicked a meaningless field goal for the cover as time expired last weekend. I always tend to take the dog in situations like this, but the Giants aren’t really doing it for me right now. They’ll also be without Saquon Barkley for this one and without him I’m not sure how much offense they can muster especially against San Francisco. Daniel Jones has been, umm, pretty bad too outside of a couple drives at the end of the Cardinals game. The 49ers have been humming to this point, and even though I could probably QB them to a win with their weapons, Brock Purdy has looked like every bit of a guy they can win a Super Bowl with. The total here doesn’t really speak to me either so, I’m going to do something I don’t do a lot and that’s back a double digit favorite.

The Play: 49ers -10

Happy Week 2 Monday Night doubleheader day. Tonight we get two divisional matchups to close out what has been an entertaining week overall. I’ll be giving a pick for each game. Let’s get started.

Saints (-3) vs. Panthers (39.5)

I feel like people are going to hammer the Saints at only a field goal here, but I don’t see it. They’re on the road and didn’t particularly inspire too much confidence last week. I know the Panthers weren’t great also, but Bryce Young’s home debut should have the team and crowd fired up and ready to play. The Saints will still be without Alvin Kamara as well which makes their offense much less dynamic. I expect a sloppy game and the Panthers to find their way to a cover.

The Play: Panthers +3

Browns (-2.5) vs. Steelers (38.5)

This line is tough. I like Tomlin a lot as a home underdog, but I’d like to see it climb up to at least 3 points to make me feel more confident. That being the case I think the under has some good value here. The Steelers defense can’t possibly be as bad as they were last week, and the Browns will probably run the ball a lot and chew the clock. It’s not the type of fun bet I like to make for a primetime game like this, but I think points will be hard to come by tonight. I lean Steelers spread, but I’m betting the under.

The Play: Under 38.5

After a dreadful Week 1 I found myself on the right side Thursday Night’s spread. Hopefully that is a sign of things to come, but you never know especially when you suck at gambling like I do.

Packers vs. Falcons (-1.5)

I’m not sure what it is, but I like the Falcons a lot this year. I think they even have a chance to win the South if things break their way. As for this game though, I think Atlanta is going to run all over the Packers defense Sunday. I know Jordan Love looked good last weekend, but I’m expecting a bit of regression back to the mean this week for him, and the Green Bay offense. I like the spread where its at too. Less than a field goal bodes well for the Falcons in what most likely will be a close game.

Seahawks vs Lions (Over 47)

This theoretically should be a fun over. The Lions offense at home indoors should put be able to up some serious points. The Seahawks offense cannot possibly be as bad as they were last week. It doesn’t take much to get to 47. One good quarter should put us on pace and even a bad one won’t cripple you. The last two times these teams met they have scored at least 80 combined points. That has never happened between the same two teams in three straight meetings. We don’t need that though we just have to get to 48.

Commanders vs. Broncos (Under 38.5)

There’s no way this isn’t a snooze fest of a game. Both teams have good defenses and either somewhat inept (Washington) or completely inept (Denver) offenses. I like Washington to win in a close low scoring game. For what it’s worth I like the Commanders +3.5 as well, but they burned me last week and I think the under is the safer play here.

Vikings vs. Eagles (-6.5) (48.5)

I am a broken man after Week 1. That was one of, if not my worst, week since I started writing these. So I’d say whatever I pick here you should probably fade. Anyways, I got chance to watch the entirety of the Eagles game on Sunday against the Patriots and they played about one good quarter and then hung on for dear life to win the game. Minnesota on the other hand was on the losing side of my only win last week against Tampa Bay. I’m conflicted here because this seems like a prime bounce back spot for the Vikings, but it could also be a chance for the Eagles to get back on track and play a complete game. Minnesota did outgain Tampa last week and the Eagles were outgained by New England. I feel like with the line sitting up at 6.5 you’re better off taking the dog and hoping for a close game. I don’t ever advocate for it, but I’m doing it. We’re taking Prime Time Kirk. What a way to try and get back on track.

The Play: Vikings +6.5

So, I’m just going to say it, we’re not off to a great start. 1-4 on the season is not ideally how I would’ve liked to start my season, but here we are. I’ve been pretty vocal about who I’m backing in this game so I’ll keep this post short and sweet.

Bills (-2) vs. Jets (44.5)

I need a big win tonight. Plain and simple. I am all over the Bills in this game. I think the Jets will be a competitive team this year, but I also think because there are a lot of new faces on that team (QB included) it may take a few weeks for them to gel. I’m also just an Aaron Rodgers hater and I’m a Jets hater. I’m not letting those factors blind me with this bet though. I think the Bills as less than a field goal favorites is crazy value. This is a team that won 13 games last year and didn’t lose much. The Jets have to prove it to me and until they do I’m not buying them. Bills roll tonight.