Simply put this is a huge week for us here at Bick’s Picks. Is it because we went 3-0 last week? Is it because we love this weekend’s slate of games? Let’s not be ridiculous. It’s because of the big matchup in Foxboro this weekend. I will of course be in attendance and so will some of our readers. Sure it would be nice if both our teams had more to play for but sometimes a 1pm rock fight is just as fun as a primetime marquee matchup. Regardless of who comes out on top it’ll be a fun weekend so let’s see if we can win some money while we’re at it.

Life’s Too Short to Bet the Under

Cowboys @ Eagles (47)

This week there’s a lot of low totals but a lot of ugly matchups. We got like 7 or 8 backup QBs playing and it’s only week 9. Fortunately for both these teams their QBs are healthy and are coming off their best games. Hurts and Dak both threw for 4 TDs and seem to have their offenses cooking. Not only are both QBs playing their best ball but when these teams meet it’s often a shootout with the last 6 matchups hitting the over. I’m betting these teams will score and give us an easy over win.

Fade Dawgs

Commanders(+2.5) @ Patriots

Oh c’mon you had to know they’d be on here and did you think I’d pick something different? Fuck the Pats. That’s the blog. You got a problem with that find me at Gillette Stadium in lot 54A on Sunday.

Bick’s Stone Cold Lock of the Century of the Week

Dolphins @ Chiefs (-1.5) (Germany)

I’ve gotten really good at ending win streaks here at Bick’s Picks. From the Eagles suffering their first loss in franchise history to the Jets to Mahomes suffering his first career loss to the Broncos. So naturally I’m betting on another win streak continuing. Mahomes has won 8 straight games after a loss which is the longest streak in the league. Also the Chiefs have never lost an international game having won in both London and Mexico City so why not Frankfurt too. On the flip side, even though I have relied on the Fins for some wins here at Bick’s Picks that’s been always been against bad competition. In the two games they’ve played against teams with winning records they’ve lost both in convincing fashion so I’m betting that continues overseas.

I’ve decided to return after my first post in week 1 was sabotaged by windows notepad. Somewhere in that unreadable formatting abortion I correctly predicted the Lions upset over KC in week 1 as well as the rise of Sam LaPorta. I figured what better time to make another rambling post than the week of Bick’s Picks’ Superbowl against the New England Patriots. Some people aren’t aware of this but I’ve amassed a small fortune fading Bick’s Picks and have since retired.

Who Will Hoist the Stein?

With all the big name quarter backing this week including Clayton Tune, Tommy DeVito, Jaren Hall, Tyson Baguette (Those are not real names, Joey); we are stuck with this Mahomes-Tua matchup first thing in the morning. As soon as the Chiefs were embarrassed last week by the Broncos I had this one circled. Mahomes is 16-3 after a loss, and as a favorite under a field goal he is 19-6 ATS. Miami is 4-10 against teams with a winning record. As Till Lindemann says – Tua, Tua Hast, Tua Hast not beaten a team over .500 since the Bills in week 3 of LAST SEASON.

KC 27 – Miami 24

Riding the Commuter Rail

The betting public wins around 40%, however there are times when we need to jump on the T and roll the dice alongside the creatures who call our public transportation home. I might be forcing this one in here due to the circumstances, but give me my New England Patriots. I have no confidence in noodle arm Mac, just like every team who did not want to trade for him, but I’m banking on Washington having shipped away their defense to give us a chance. Ron Rivera might be trying to get fired as soon as possible and this could be the one. Really, the biggest losers are those of us invested in this game.

New England 20 – Washington 13

Red Robin

This section is sponsored by Red Robin gourmet burgers and brews. It never hurts to throw a little on a round robin for all your bets. The Panthers are the only home dawg on Sunday and I love them +3 as well as the money line.

• New England Patriots -3
• KC Chiefs -1.5
• Carolina Panthers +3/ML
• LV Raiders -1.5
• Arizona @ Cleveland Under 38.5

0 for 3. Washington scored 7, the Lions reminded us they’re the Lions and Kirk is still wondering if I liked that. We’re at an all time low right now but the Bick’s Picks legacy is more than bricks and mortar. We’re about arbitrary biases and picking with our plums. After all, why do we fall Bruce? So that we can learn to chase our losses.

Life’s Too Short to Bet the Under

Eagles @ Commanders (43.5)

I know what you’re saying. Really again? Yes again. Washington is in shambles, trade talks flying and Ron Rivera is on the hottest seat in the NFL. Some men just want to watch the world burn and I’m one of them. I could very easily see Washington hosting a track meet for Philly which could finally send Ron packing. Eagles feasted on this secondary earlier in the season and I have no reason to think that won’t happen again. I certainly don’t expect another OT shootout but Washington does tend to play to their competition so their offense should score more than they did in the Jersey swamp. Eagles score early and often resulting in an easy over and hopefully the first head coach firing of 2023.

Fade Dawgs

Jaguars @ Steelers(+2)

Alright so the re-brand didn’t work but that’s okay I’m used to multiple re-brands so why not mix it up again. I have yet to pick a dog correctly so why not be honest and lean into it. They say you always fear what you don’t understand which is probably why I’ve probably avoided picking the 4-2 Steelers. The Steelers are adept at winning ugly one score games that leave you wondering hey I thought they lost that game in the 2nd quarter. They’ve also won 4 straight as underdogs so why not 5? The Jags are also playing their 4th game in 19 days and are due for a let down as they have one eye looking ahead to their bye week. You either die picking underdogs or live long enough to trust Kenny Pickett.

Bick’s Stone Cold Lock of the Century of the Week

Chiefs(-7) @ Broncos

The night is always darkest before the dawn but I promise you that dawn is coming. No way the lock is losing 3 in a row. Sometimes when you’re losing things have a tendency to get so serious and overthink things. I mean c’mon if Mahomes vs the Broncos doesn’t hit then I don’t know what to do. The Chiefs have 16 straight wins vs the Broncos which is the longest active streak vs one opponent. Also there’s potential snow in the forecast so I’m trusting self proclaimed “snow game guy” Mahomes to get it done. I will admit -7 is a little gross but you can move it to -6.5(-128) on DraftKings. I feel like I kept it simple and we got some wins coming our way. Who knows, maybe if we start pretending to have fun, we might even have a little by accident.

My goal was 3-0 last week and I failed you. Dogging It is dead and my lock took its first L. However, unlike Bradley Cooper my silver lining was that the Eagles took the L. But hey it’s a new week with a new slate of games so let’s make some money huh?

Life’s Too Short to Bet the Under

Commanders @ Giants (37.5)

Lots of low totals this week, but rightfully so, I mean we got Brian Hoyer starting football games in 2023. Although I don’t expect a lot of scoring this Sunday, a couple games are bound to surprise us and I think this matchup is one of them. I’d be lying if I said there wasn’t some bias involved in this pick, but remember who’s picks you’re reading. Now, I wish I could tell you I was expecting Washington to come in and score 35 of the total needed and cruise to a victory for all of us, but let’s be real. The reason I like this game is because despite how many 1st round picks Washington has on defense they still can’t stop a nosebleed. I mean Daboll has been using a Daniel Jones smokescreen to intimidate us because Jones turns Vanilla Vick against us (5-1-1 vs Washington). That said I don’t expect him to actually play but Jake’s guy T-Mobile is more than capable of getting it done. On the flip side I do expect Slinging Sammy 2.0 to put up enough points to get this over easy and heck maybe even a win.

Piss Dawgs

Lions (+3) @ Ravens

It’s been rough season for dogs overall, but especially here at Bick’s Picks. Much like Mark “Stink” Schlereth, most of my dogs have been pissing their pants in the second half of games so I figured why not name the segment after him. And since we’re pissing our pants midas whale bite some knee caps. I’ve been resistant to buy in on the Lions, but this is the week I finally do. Lions look like a complete football team that wins games in the trenches while being capable of scoring points the points needed to put teams away. Meanwhile the Ravens run first offense has to contend with the best run defense so far in football. Lions win outright but take the points if you don’t have the courage.

Bick’s Stone Cold Lock of the Century of the Week

49ers(-6.5) @ Vikings (MNF)

As mentioned earlier those ass shoving brotherly lovers choked against the Jets so the Lock is looking for a bounce back. So why not look to a team also looking to bounce back. Niners lost a tough one to the Browns having easily their worst offensive performance of the season. But that loss was a product of bad weather, a stout Cleveland D and some key injuries to Deebo and CMC. Fortunately it seems both playmakers avoided disaster and with extra rest will play on Monday night. This is bad news for a middling Vikings defense that lives and dies by the blitz. The Niners have also won 12 in row vs the NFC as the favorite and the Vikings have failed to cover as dogs in 8 straight vs. the NFC. But I’ve buried the lede and the obvious reason this is my lock is primetime Kirk. Very few wilt under the bright lights quite like my old QB and that’s not to mention he doesn’t have his all world security blanket Justin Jefferson. The Vikings squeaked out a win against the Bears last week but the offense looked anemic in the process. Even if the Niners sputter out the gate I don’t see how the Vikings consistently move the ball so a Brocktober bounce back seems like easy money. Also if you wanna get real spicy parlay the spread with a CMC any time TD he’s going for 16 games in a row.

If we’re being honest week 5 was full of losses we all want to forget. Washington embarrassed themselves for the billionth time in primetime, the Pats got shutout at home by the Saints and most devastating of all Bick’s Picks had its first losing week. Unlike our football teams I promise to be better this week. 3-0 Week 6 here we come.

Life’s Too Short to Bet the Under

Panthers @ Dolphins (47.5)

After a disappointing London Under we’re gonna look to the Fins to get us back on track. The winless Panthers have given up an average of 28.8 points a game and haven’t shown us anything on defense to give us reason to think they’ll slow down Miami’s offense, even with Achane out. On the flip side Miami’s defense is far from perfect. I mean they actually let the Giants score a TD for the first time last week. Not to mention Bryce Young has started to build a good connection with Adam Thielen making the Panthers look like a team capable of moving the ball. We get a track meet at Hard Rock easy Over hit.

Dogging It

Indianapolis(+4) @ Jacksonville

Time to address the elephant in the room. Dogging It is 0-2. Only segment without a win. At Bick’s Picks we’re not quitters but Dogging It is certainly on notice and we might have to rebrand. But before drastic steps have to be taken let’s try to pick a winner. Full disclosure I had Washington locked into this spot but talked myself out of it while writing it. Instead I like the Colts +4 in an early divisional rematch with 1st place on the line. The Jags won the first matchup and have won 8 straight at home vs the Colts but streaks like that are meant to be broken. The Jags are gonna be hungover from two weeks of London ball and are due for a letdown after upsetting the Bills. Meanwhile Anthony Richardson finally broke so Uncle Rico is here to stay. Minshew led the Colts to a road win vs the Ravens earlier this season and now has Jonathan Taylor in the backfield. Taylor once had his best career game vs the Jags and I like him to have a nice welcome back performance. Think this one comes down to a field goal and if so either way we win. Colts +4

Bick’s Stone Cold Lock of the Century of the Week

Eagles(-6.5) @ Jets

I think this one should be a fun one to watch until it isn’t. The Jets have shown in recent weeks they are the talented team many expected them to be. Unfortunately though, no matter how many rehab pictures he posts Rodgers isn’t walking through the door anytime soon. Sure Zach Wilson did look somewhat competent vs the Chiefs but then he showed last week he remains a disaster waiting to happen. Unlike the Broncos, the Eagles, are more than capable of capitalizing on his mistakes. The Jets strength is their pass rush but Eagles have the best OL in the league. Breece Hall will find it harder to find running room against the Eagles’ No. 1 ranked run defense. To make matters worse for the Jets they’ll be without starting corners Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed so we should expect Hurts to get A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith going early and often. By the way did I mention that the Eagles have never lost to the Jets? That’s a streak that will continue Sunday. Eagles roll.

First off, I just wanna say thank god I didn’t write a blog for Thursday. Whatever slanderous nonsense I would’ve spewed out would’ve only added insult to injury of the money we lost. I mean I actually said Washington -13.5 for a primetime game. But hey like I said last week Bick’s Picks is about arbitrary biases and having a short memory. So much like [Field Goal Boy] Ron Rivera forgetting about his timeouts let’s forget about those L’s and dive into some picks.

Life’s Too Short to Bet the Under

Jaguars @ Bills (48.5) (London)

I won’t lie it took me a minute to truly find an over I loved like I did last week. I bounced around for a bit, but inevitably always found myself looking at London. The way I see it, I’ve [Josh Allen] been slinging it in recent weeks so I feel confident I’ll put 35 on my own. Then on the flip side Mr. Ed and friends essentially have relocated to England, so I think the extra rest and lack of travel will work in their favor. Gimme a shootout and an easy win to start my Sunday. [Editors Note: Tottenham Stadium is 5-1 to the Over]

Dogging It

Bengals @ Cardinals (+3)

As avid readers of Bick’s Picks would know we have several pillars of integrity including, but not limited to, plums, bias, and a short memory. Today we reveal another pillar and that’s the pillar of accountability. Some say it’s the most important ability, but we all know that’s availability. Either way the point is MY bad. I know I’m not 100% to blame for the Patriots loss, but I’m definitely a little to blame. So like Atlas I’ll shoulder that blame and promise to never pick the Pats again*. Now that I’ve appeased the editor on to the pick. Simply put I don’t like the Bungles. Burrow isn’t right and they’re just an ugly team to watch. Meanwhile football Charlie V [Josh Dobbs] [Reference to UCONN legend and fellow alopecia gang member Charlie Villanueva] and the Cards are the type of scrappy underdogs this whole segment is built around. Cards cover and maybe win.

Bick’s Stone Cold Lock of the Century of the Week

Giants @ Dolphins (-12.5)

Now I know what you’re saying -12.5?? Didn’t you learn your lesson Thursday? And the answer is no, of course I didn’t. This goldfish is whistling past my graveyard of bets and hammering this spread. Giants OL is in shambles, Barkley is still hurt, Daniel Jones is Daniel Jones again, and Daboll is looking more and more like McAdoo by the week. There’s some concern with the Dolphins OL but that’s just me trying to come up with a reason the Giants hang around. Fins roll easy money.

I’ve reached my breaking point. I’m sick of getting crushed every weekend and it’s made writing these significantly less fun. My head isn’t in it anymore and it’s effecting my picks. So I need to step away for now. I will be back, but I will be taking an indefinite leave from my Betting Guides. This feels like a chore to me now, like something I have to do, and not something that I do for fun. This doesn’t mean I won’t be gambling. I just won’t be giving out horrible advice on who to take.

I’ve lost my love for writing these posts and I need to find it again. So like Jordan in ’93 I’m stepping away for now, and just like Jordan in ’95 I’ll be back. I’m just not sure when. Maybe it’ll be when I can get a read on a fucking game for once because I haven’t all year. So I want to apologize to all seven of you that read this and fade my picks. I’ll be sure to still tell you who I’m taking every week.

So long, for now…

Lions (-2.5) vs. Packers (45.5)

As I start typing this post I just want it on record that I still have no idea who to take in this game. I could throw a dart at these two teams and would probably be a more sound strategy than whatever I come up with. I do think the Lions are the more talented team, but them playing at Lambeau worries me. I know they won that Week 18 game last year, but still, they don’t have the greatest track record there. Both teams are a little banged up as well so the under could also be in play. With Aaron Jones and Christian Watson on track to play and the fact that the Lions offense can be dangerous I’d rather stay away from that though. I think if the Packers are getting points at home in a pretty even matchup like this you have to take them. I came into this leaning Lions, but this game could be a pick’em as far as I’m concerned so I’ll take the home dog.

The Play: Packers +2.5

It’s been a busy day so I have to go rapid fire here with the picks.

Eagles (-5.5) vs. Buccaneers (44.5)

The Bucs have been frisky so far this year and the Eagles have let inferior teams hang around to this point. I don’t quite think Tampa wins this game, but it should be close so I’m taking the points.

The Play: Buccaneers +5.5

Rams vs. Bengals (-3) (45.5)

This basically all hinges on Joe Burrow’s availability. We still don’t know if he is playing. If he does will he be effective though? The Rams have looked good so far this year so, I’ll take the points again here and if Burrow doesn’t play that’s a bonus.

The Play: Rams +3

Texans (+8.5) vs. Jaguars

I’m going back to the well with Houston again this week. These divisional games are always tight and I think this will be no different. Jacksonville is going to be a popular survival pool pick this week, but I think I’m staying away from them this week because I like Houston a lot here. As bad as they’ve been they’ve played the Jags tough in recent years. I expect that to continue. Let’s here it one time for my boy CJ Stroud. Texans cover, sprinkle the ML if you’re feeling frisky too.

Falcons (+3) vs. Lions

Even though they burned me last week I like the Falcons again. Desmond Ridder is not the answer at QB, but he’s at least been able to keep them in games and they have a 2-0 record to show for it. I’m betting against the Lions hype train again as well. I can see Atlanta putting up a ton of points this week on a Detroit defense that got gashed by the Seahawks last week. If you can buy this line up to 3.5 without killing your payout I like it even better. In fact, that’s probably what I’ll end up doing. Could also be another ML sprinkle candidate depending on the payout. Either way Atlanta covers.

Panthers (+5.5) vs. Seahawks

Yup, that’s right another road dog. This is a sell high spot on Seattle. They’re coming off a huge win in Detroit last week and they’re facing a backup QB? Seems like it should be an easy win, but they should not be getting this many points. I’m not sure if I’m comfortable enough to throw something on the ML here, but this is a team that kept it within 3 with New Orleans on Monday. I don’t think there’s much of a difference between them and Seattle. I also don’t think Andy Dalton gives you that much less than Bryce Young right now. If you can get the Panthers up at 6 or 6.5 I like it even better.

Steelers vs. Raiders (-2.5)

So after I lose all my money I’m going to need some juice on the Sunday Night game. I’m also going against my road dog “strategy” from earlier and riding with the home favorite. Just like I’m selling high on Seattle I’m doing the same with the Steelers. I typically bet Mike Tomlin as a dog, but I don’t love them Sunday night. The Raiders are a bit more alive than people thought they’d be too and Jimmy G finds ways to win games like this. I’m also buying low on them after getting blown out last week vs. Buffalo. Give me the Raiders to finish off my Sunday with (hopefully) a winning record.