That’s right, I’m semi-unretiring here for Week 2 of the 2024-25 season. I can’t promise I’ll be back every week, but I’ll try to get some takes off when I can. I’ve heard the critics too, some of whom have been louder than others. They’re saying I’m washed up, that I don’t have a real job, that I “don’t have the balls to put my picks up every week.” It’s all disappointing to hear because it comes from someone who I have a lot of respect for in the take game, and that’s my protégé over at Bick’s Picks. Now we invite competition and shit-talking over here at Jake’s Takes so I’m all for it, but my man needs to remember who paved the way for Bick’s Picks, who pays Word Press every year so he can slander my Patriots, who edits the grammatical errors out of all his blogs. That’s right I’m still the King over here whether I’m blogging or not. It’s about time I once again neglect my duties as an Athletic Trainer and use my work computer for some good old fashioned blogging. So without further ado, Let’s get into some picks.

The “Suck My Bick” Hater Bet of the Week

Giants (+1.5) vs. Commanders

That’s right we’re fighting fire with fire in my return. I have absolutely no basis for this because the Giants STINK, but if you’re going to disrespectfully alt line the Bengals against the my Fighting Jerod Mayo’s up to -13.5, and then lose outright, I’m sure as hell betting against your team the next week no matter who they’re playing. The only difference is that I have the decency to not disparage Vegas and move lines around like a heathen, so we’re sticking with the spread here. I believe The Antithesis’ Jeff Young put it best when he called last weeks pick “an incredible piece of fiction,” and he was correct. Now after raining on their parade last week it’s time to add salt to the wound with a sad performance against Danny Dimes. Let’s hear it for the GGGGGG-MENNNNNN.

Charlie Murphy’s Habitual Line Stepper of the Week

Seahawks vs. Patriots (+3.5)

You know we had to bring back the Line Stepper in 2024 and what better team to do it with than the biggest outright underdog winner from last week. I actually like the Pats to keep this one close and maybe even pull out their second win in as many games. While the Seahawks have a scary looking receiving corps, the New England secondary is one of the best in the league led by and emergent Christian Gonzalez. I think the Pats can frustrate Geno Smith enough to keep this one within reach for the offense and they’re going to have to because Mike MacDonald’s defense is bound to give the Patriots offense fits at times in this one. If New England can control the clock offensively and turn this into a “rock fight” (that was for you Andrew) they’ll have a chance to win this game. I like this to be a low scoring affair, likely decided by a field goal, and I love seeing that .5 at the end of the 3 for the underdog in this one. Give me the Pats at home and just maybe let’s get to 2-0.

“They’re Eating Dogs” Favorite of the Week

Chargers (-4.5) vs. Panthers

Just like in Springfield Ohio, they’re eating dogs (underdogs in this case) in LA. I know taking a mid team to cover over a field goal on the road maybe isn’t the smartest thing to do, but man do the Panthers look awful so it’s hard not to. The Chargers will probably be my survivor pick this week as well so I’m looking for a blowout here. I think following the trend of “bet against the Panthers until Bryce Young looks like he knows how to play football” is probably the safe thing to do, and I could eat my words if he shows up big in this game, but after watching them last week it’s hard to have any faith. Chargers should dominate here.

I took the cheese and I paid for it. After a perfect 3-0 Thursday opener the Packers let me down on Friday losing to the Eagles in a slippery track meet of a game. I’ve only really got myself to blame but I’m also gonna give a special shout out to the terrible field conditions in Sao Paulo. No chance the NFL goes back to Brazil anytime soon if the injury Jordan Love sustained with 6 seconds left causes him to miss any significant time. But enough complaining we’ve got a loss to chase and here we are once again with an unpredictably close Week 1 slate staring back at us. If this year seems especially close, that’s because it is. For the first time since 2010 we’ve only got one game with a spread of 7 or more points. As a result I’m seeing all the supposed “experts” passing on games rather than making picks. That might fly over at The Ringer or Action Network, but not here at Bick’s Picks where no spread is too close, no total too high. As I’m a creature of habit you should all be familiar with our format of an Over, an Underdog, a TD Parlay and a Lock. Who knows maybe I’ll get spicy and shake things up down the line but Week 1 already looks tough enough to predict without changing up my picks so let’s get into it.

Life’s Too Short to Bet the Under

Cowboys @ Browns (41)

There’s a bunch of games opening at 41 but for some reason this one keeps calling my name especially since the line keeps dropping. Not entirely sure the reason but this has been the most popular Under bet for Week 1, and as a result the line moved from 44.5 at open to the 41 it is now. Not that I need an excuse to fade the public but my hands are tied in situations like this. These teams were a combined 22-14 for the O/U last season and as good as their defenses might be I’m expecting them both to give up big plays through the air as we cruise to an easy Over win.

Over 41 (-110)

Fade Dawgs

Commanders (+3.5) @ Buccaneers

C’mon, did you really think that Washington wouldn’t make an appearance in the Week 1 picks? And that’s right you’re reading correctly I’m not betting against them we’re betting on them. I’m all in on JD5 and the new regime. Sure, I have my second thoughts about Dan Quinn and the literal ghosts of 1st round QBs past (RIP Haskins) always haunt me but Dan Snyder is gone so anything is possible. In all seriousness I really do think this will be a team that could surprise some people this season and I think it starts Week 1. I’m obviously enamoured with the dual threat Jayden Daniels will be for this team but the real reason I like them in this spot is their revamped defense. New GM Adam Peters and Dan Quinn completely overhauled the roster with only 39% of the 2023 roster returning which is by the lowest percentage in the league. This was long overdue and new additions like Bobby Wagner, Frankie Luvu and Jeremy Chinn should help improve a painfully underperforming defense. The pass rush couldn’t have been worse last season being dead last in most categories but that should change under Quinn who’s known for being creative with drawing up ways to create pressure. Now so far I’ve admittedly been whistling past the Bucs in this write up because they just feel like they’re the same team last year. Not that it’s a terrible thing but I can’t ignore the feeling that they over performed and frankly got a little lucky last season. That said Mike Evans will get his (see the TD Triducken) but I think Washington can force Baker to make enough mistakes to make this a close game, maybe even pull off the upset. Mayfield after all is 14-26-1 all time against the spread as a favorite so let’s ride with JD5 in his Burgundy and Gold debut.

Commanders +3.5 (-108)

Touchdown Triducken

Anytime TD Parlay: Mike Evans, Ceedee Lamb, Josh Allen

Those new to Bick’s Picks might not be familiar with the term Triducken, but it’s our homage to the late great John Madden. It’s a touchdown inside a touchdown inside another touchdown, what’s not to like? Feel like I kept it simple and went for what I thought was sure things. Ceedee’s scored in 9 straight regular season games to end last season and he remains THE weapon in the Cowboys offense. Washington always seems to struggle to limit an opposing team’s biggest weapon so until I see them do otherwise I think Evans is a safe bet. My doppelgänger Josh Allen had 15 rushing TDs last season and this season the Bills are definitely looking for him to put the team on his back with Diggs out the door. Sure I‘m playing it safe but after the Commanders pick it’s probably not the worst idea.

Anytime TD Triducken: Mike Evans, Ceedee Lamb, Josh Allen (+869)

Bick’s Stone Cold Lock of the Century of the Week

Patriots @ Bengals (-13.5)

To end last season I looked to Bill and the New England Patriots to get one more win against the Jets but they failed me. Belichick’s tenure ended with a 17-3 wet fart and I’m sorry Pats fans unfortunately I’m expecting Jerod Mayo’s to start the same way. I think too much of a bad 4-13 squad was brought back expecting different results. It also doesn’t inspire confidence that the big offseason acquisitions for the offense are Jacoby Brissett and OC Alex Van Pelt. Sure their defense should be a strength but I’m guessing they’ll be on the field a lot Sunday. Now picking the Bengals does come with its share of concerns because the Brown family is a bunch of cheap bastards but it sounds like at least Chase will play. Even if he didn’t I’m not sure it’d change my opinion about this game, sorry Pats fan I think ya’ll Maye suck.

 Bengals -13.5 (+170)

The Taylor Bowl is finally here and it should be a good one. Thankfully it has been confirmed that “The Football Era” arrived at LAX last night so they’ll actually be able to play the game on time. Here at Bick’s Picks we’ve been riding with the Swifties throughout the playoffs and it’s been paying off. However not all of our last picks hit as we ended up with a 2-2 Championship Weekend. I can forgive an Over for missing but the Lions not winning that game will not be forgotten and Dan Campbell will not be forgiven. Also while we’re at it Ben Johnson can go to hell we didn’t want him anyways. My sour grapes aside, before I get into the picks I wanna give a big thanks to Jake’s Takes for giving me the opportunity to step in this season. Also shout out to the readers I’ve really appreciated those who have followed and hopefully you won some money either tailing or fading me. Although this may be the last blog of the season, rest assured I’ll be back but enough of all that we got one last game left to bet on so let’s get into it.

49ers @ Chiefs (+2)

Dread it. Run from it. Destiny arrives all the same. And now it’s here. Or should I say, Mahomes is. 4 of the last 5 Super Bowls have included the Chiefs so I’ll just cut to the chase. I think they beat the Niners again and win their 3rd ring. I mean the minute the Chiefs opened as dawgs I knew this was the play. Frankly, the wrong team is favored in this game. Personally I’m shocked to see Mahomes as a dawg for a 3rd game in a row and we all know what happens when he’s a dawg. Now I’ve been picking the Chiefs all playoffs so I won’t bore you again with all Patrick’s pretty stats because even though he’s the main reason I’m riding with KC. Steve Spagnuolo’s dominant defense is why I feel so confident. Question the man’s ability to be a head coach all you want but it’s not a stretch to say Spags is one of the best defensive coordinators of all time just ask the 07 Pats. Their pass rush led by Chris Jones was 3rd overall in sacks and can get after the quarterback better than anybody so, I’m expecting them to make a shaky Brock Purdy uncomfortable all day. Now, I won’t ignore that Purdy has been able to overcome the pressure he’s faced in recent weeks mounting multiple 2nd half comebacks to punch a ticket to the big game. But this Chiefs defense is a different animal than anything the Niners have faced this postseason. They’ve been absolutely dominant in the second half of games allowing only 10 points total over all 3 games so don’t expect them to piss away a 17 point lead like the Lions did. So while I’ll acknowledge for the record the Niners were the best team in the NFC and I probably shouldn’t be writing them off, but guess what this my blog and I don’t like Kyle Shanahan so that’s what I’m doing. In fact I’ll be bold and say the Chiefs win by a touchdown. So throw on your friendship bracelet, and your favorite cardigan because we’re cranking 1989 and eating cheeseburgers and nuggies tonight.

We made it people, the last weekend of football before the big game. Feels like only yesterday I was picking games for Thanksgiving and now it’s almost February. But let’s ignore the unstoppable march of time for a moment to enjoy the fact we had ourselves a 3-1 Divisional Round here at Bick’s Picks. First the Ravens delivered us the Over, then a couple 4th quarter TDs ensured the Lions covered, and to end the weekend another generation of Bills fans got to know the pain of Wide Right. The Packers did spoil an otherwise perfect weekend, but with how much cheese I’ve been eating while watching these games I should’ve known better. Regardless you guys know we don’t sweat the losses at Bick’s Picks we chase em, so let’s get into it.

Chiefs (+4.5) @ Ravens (44.5)

Your eyes do not deceive you. I am in fact making two picks for this game. Fact of the matter is I saw the opportunity to bet on a dawg or an Over, so I figured why not both? Now it may bother Pats fans for me to say but I get the same feeling of inevitability with Mahomes as I did with Brady. Sure the Chiefs were definitely a mess at times during the regular season but here we are and they’re playing in their 6th straight AFC Championship. Rookie Rashee Rice has emerged as a weapon outside, Pacheco has been running downhill and Taylor Swift’s boyfriend is finally catching more balls than he’s dropping. Although this may seem like familiar territory for Mahomes this is actually the first time since his rookie year that he’s been a dawg in back to back weeks. Some might say that’s a bad thing but they should know he won both those games his rookie year and we all know what happened last week. In fact over his entire career he’s 8-3 straight up and 9-1-1 against the spread when he’s a dawg. There’s a lot to like about those numbers but let’s not forget the reason Mahomes is a dawg is because the Ravens are the best team in football. The Ravens have the best record, the best rushing attack, the best defense and the probable MVP. There’s always a chance we could have a game similar to Super Bowl LV where Baltimore dominates the Chiefs like the Bucs did but personally I think we’re in for one to remember. As for the Over 44.5 for these teams is just too low I don’t care about the weather. Both of these teams are going to at least put up 20 and I don’t expect either to let up if they get the chance to spread it on. In the end it really wouldn’t surprise me if either team won this game but in the end I expect it to be close and with enough scoring to get us two wins to start the day.

Chiefs +4.5

Over 44.5

Lions (+7) @ 49ers

Right when the line opened I liked this number for the Lions. Admittedly I liked it even more when it briefly snuck up to +7.5 but either way I think these kittens cover. Hell I’ll say it, I like the Lions to win this game outright. Two huge home wins have Detroit faithful one game away from experiencing their first Super Bowl in their 93 year history. It might sound cliche to say but they feel like a team of destiny and I’m buying in. It’s easy to forget that Jared Goff is the second most experienced quarterback left in the playoffs and is a much better qb than the game manager he was during his Super Bowl run with the Rams. I’m also sure offensive genius and future Washington head coach Ben Johnson will have a game plan ready to attack a Niners defense that’s been susceptible to the run and some big plays. On the other side Brock Purdy has managed to stay mistake free in his playoff career but I think that luck is about to run out. Even though the Lions defense is considered the worst left in the playoffs, Aiden Hutchinson and company can get after the quarterback and I think they finally make Purdy turn it over. Admittedly it feels like I’m writing off San Fran and that’s probably because I am. My arbitrary bias is showing and I can’t shake the idea that Lil Shanny’s teams always choke. So I’ll be doing the Jeff special and throwing some on the spread and some on the moneyline.

Lions +7

Lions ML (+275)

8 teams. 4 games. Only 3 more games after these people we’re in the end game. After a Super Wild Card Weekend full of blow outs Bick’s Picks ended up with a 3-3 record. This might be obvious to say but this one is on me people. Not just because I’m making the picks but I went against some of the pillars of the foundation that Bick’s Picks is built on. I mean I picked an Under AND I picked the Cowboys in the playoffs, like what’s up with that? My lapses in judgment aside, it was also sad to see January Joe turn into Jeriatric Joe before our eyes. But as always we can’t stress last week’s losses because there’s not much football left so let’s get into it.

Texans @ Ravens (43.5)

Yup that’s right Overs are back and frankly they never should’ve left. You won’t catch another Under on Bick’s Picks you can count on that. This is the lowest total on the board and I’m honestly scratching my head as to why. Sure it’s chilly in Baltimore but I don’t think that’ll be enough to slow down these offenses. The Texans are fresh off of demolishing the Browns and would’ve covered this total on their own. Meanwhile Lamar and company are well rested and ready to make a statement. I think the Ravens come out trying to prove there’s a reason they’re the one seed and I don’t expect them to let their foot off the gas. Now I do think the Ravens could cover a big -9.5 spread but after last week I can’t count out some Stroud magic covering that big number. Either way I think we see enough points to start off Divisional Weekend with a win.

Over 43.5

Packers @ 49ers (-9.5)

Yup that’s right I’m picking against the Pack again. Admittedly this line is ugly but it’s stayed around 10 all week and that means to me the Niners are still the play. The Niners are well rested and frankly just the better team. Now I won’t deny that Love has had a horseshoe up his ass as of late and has been playing the best ball of his career but I don’t care, he’s due to turn back into a pumpkin. Now I do feel like I’m writing a very similar blog to last week but this is San Fran not Dallas and I feel a lot better about the Niners than the Cowboys for obvious reasons. Maybe the Packers show up and keep this close but I’m betting the fun is over for Green Bay and another 1 seed takes care of business.

49ers (-9.5)

Buccaneers @ Lions (-6)

I won’t lie, this was a tough one to pick for me. It’s not because I have a dog in  this fight or any personal stake I’m just honestly surprised that these teams are actually here. My disbelief aside I still have to pick this game and although my first instinct was to keep riding with the Bucs I’m gonna be biting kneecaps this Sunday instead. Sure the Bucs took care of business at home against a one dimensional Eagles but this Lions team is a different animal right now. They also got the playoff win drought off their backs so I think they’re past any jitters they might’ve had. Meanwhile Baker has been taking bad sacks and been playing mistake free for too long so I’m betting his luck runs out. So crank the 8 Mile soundtrack we’re eating mom’s spaghetti tomorrow.

Lions -6

Chiefs (+2.5) @ Bills

Here we are, the game of the weekend for sure. This Bills Chiefs rematch is the one a lot of people have been looking forward to and I think it’d live up to the hype. To keep it simple I’ve been down on the Bills all season and despite the Chiefs shortcomings this season I’m still counting on them showing up when it counts. Sure Josh Allen is coming off of one of his first mistake free games of the year but they still somehow found it close against a Steelers team that had no business in the playoffs. Also the fact the Bills had to keep playing that game led to some injuries making them much more banged up than the Chiefs. Now this is Mahomes’ first ever road playoff game which does give me some pause but in the end it’ll just be another milestone for him as they head to another AFC Championship. Gimme KC to cover and most likely leave Orchard Park with a win.

Chiefs +2.5

Why are we getting Bick’s Picks on a Saturday? Because I cut the brakes! Wild card bitches! The football gods have gifted us with three straight days of NFL playoffs and it’s shaping up should be a good one. We’re expecting to get some all time football weather for some of these games, not to mention I’m feeling some upsets this weekend. Also since it’s the playoffs we’re switching up the format and betting every game whether we want to or not so let’s get into it. 

Browns (-2.5) @ Texans

Personally I think it’s unfortunate teams are meeting up in the first round because both are such good stories but thankfully at least one of these teams will advance. And yup that’s right I’m riding January Joe in this one. Simply put I’m riding with experience in this one and that will be a trend moving forward with the rest of my picks. This young Texans team is a great story and honestly a great example of how you can turn things around quickly if you draft the right QB but at the end of the day I think their inexperience will lead to mistakes that the Browns will capitalize on. Stroud very easily could prove me wrong but a well rested Browns team should be able to get the job done.

Browns (-2.5)

Dolphins @ Chiefs (-4.5)

It’s gonna be cold. Like all time it’s dangerous to be outside cold. It’ll easily be the coldest game in Dolphins franchise history and they simply don’t do well in the cold. Fins have lost 10 straight games that have had temperatures below 40 degrees and I think that trend continues. Nevermind the fact this will be Tua’s first playoff start and I think he’ll make mistakes. Miami is also dealing with numerous injuries on offense and on defense which doesn’t bode well for them. Now I won’t ignore the Chiefs have looked bad by their standards but it’s the playoffs they’ll show up for round 1 at home. Gimme the KC all day.

Chiefs (-4.5)

Steelers @ Bills (Under 37)

Whelp I had to scrap this whole pick as I was just finishing Bick’s Picks when the news dropped that this game was moving to Monday. My pick originally was to hammer the Under because that was nearly a guarantee since this game was gonna get played in a blizzard with 50 mph winds. Now even though the Under isn’t as appealing I still think it’s the play. The spread is 10 and although I can see the Bills covering that I’m not willing to bet on it. So I’m sticking with the Under but admittedly don’t feel as good about it as I did before.

Under 37

Packers @ Cowboys (-7)

I’ll address right away this is an ugly line and also yes I am betting on the Cowboys in the playoffs. Once again the main reason for this is that I’m betting against inexperience. Love looks pretty good as of late and managed to do enough to secure the Packers a spot in the playoffs but I feel like they needed some luck to get there. Looking back at the Packers low points this season they stand out to me a lot more than the highlights. Sure the Cowboys have been all over the place this season but they’ve been a much better team at home. End of the day Cowboys are the better team and I think their desire to run up the score when ahead helps us cover in the end.

Cowboys -7

Rams (+3) @ Lions

I won’t deny it, I’m a broken record today because once again I’m betting against inexperience in this matchup. This time it isn’t the quarterback but instead the coach and most of the Lions team. But in regards to the quarterback I’m also betting against Jared Goof. That guy has turned into a pumpkin at the worst times this season and I think it happens again tomorrow night. On the other side Rams are a very experienced squad capable of making a surprise Super Bowl run. They’re also rested and in the end I think they don’t shrink in the moment like I’m expecting the Lions to do.

Rams +3

Eagles @ Buccaneers (+2.5)

I won’t waste my time talking about this one a ton because I think we all know why I’m betting against the Eagles in this one. Cause fuck em that’s why! These jabronis have lost every time I’ve bet them so I’m not gonna make that mistake again. Also let’s not forget the Iggles are simply a mess right now. They’ve lost 5 of 6, the defense can’t stop a nosebleed, Hurts’ finger looks like ET’s and AJ Brown won’t be playing. Now I’m not in love with the idea of relying on Baker to get us a win but this is a bet against the Eagles as much as it is one for the Bucs. Ride with the Bucs and fire the cannons.

Buccaneers +2.5

I had no intention of writing, but when Jake’s Takes returned and I had already faded every pick, I had to put pen to paper. The moment was just too perfect.

Browns (-2) @ Texans (44.5)

How could you not be a fan of CJ Stroud? However, a rookie QB and coach in their first post season going up against this Brown’s team, the best defense in the league with come back player of the year Joe Flacco, is not a good spot for the Texans. When these teams played in week 16 the Texans D had no answer for Amari Cooper who put up 265 yards and 2 TDs. This could be a repeat if he’s healthy.       Browns 34, Texans 20

Miami (+4.5) @ KC (43.5)

Hopefully Mike McDaniel wears his “I wish it were colder” shirt again. Everyone is up in arms about the dolphins poor record in the frigid weather, and there is something to that. However, this team can run the ball. Achane didn’t play when these teams met in Germany earlier this year. And which running back has the highest yards per carry average in NFL history? Of course that would be Beattie Feathers of the 1934 Bears. Who holds the second highest though? De’Von Achane with 7.8 per run. The Chiefs should not be favored this much in any game. This season Mr. Pfizer has been about as effective as the jab he loves so much. I’ll let the number keep going up and bet Miami before kickoff.        KC 23, Miami 20

Pittsburgh (+9.5) @ Buffalo (33.5)

Enough with the weather issues, these are men who play football for a living. The only people that might be affected by the weather are the soft athletic trainers. Buffalo is good for a turnover or three to set up some short field scores for the Steelers. I could see this over hitting just off Josh Allen playing against himself; picks and consequent TD’s to answer those picks. Buffalo 23, Pitt 18

Green Bay (+7.5) @ Dallas (50.5)

While not necessarily a fade of the take, I am Packing the cheese here. Dak has never covered at home in the playoffs, the Cowboys are post season choke jobs. Jordan Love is on fire down the stretch and should have no problem matching Dallas’ scoring. I’ll take them on the money line too and sail the seas of cheese into the divisional round.  Pack 36, Cowboys 33

Rams (+3) @ Lions (51.5)

Before this game starts I’d recommend betting the Rams’ Superbowl future because when they blow out Detroit you’re not getting +4500 again. The Sam LaPorta injury is a huge deal to the Lions, allowing the defense to focus on Amon-Ra. On the other side of the ball this high powered Rams offense should have no problem scoring early and often. Put it in the books, you will see Puka Nacua hoisting the Lombardi.  Rams 42, Lions 16

Eagles (-3) @ Bucs (43.5)

I wasn’t sure what to do with this game until I saw Jake picking the Eagles. Sometimes you just need to follow the fade. The Eagles have collapsed, everyone’s hurt and they’ve lost 5 of the last 6. Maybe they eek out a win but I’ll still take the points at home with Baker on MLK Day.

Eagles 21, Bucs 20

It’s good to have Jake’s Takes back even if he goes 0-6 on the best weekend of football. Happy wild card weekend everyone.

That’s right. You’re not seeing a ghost, it isn’t and an aberration, I am in fact back just in time for the playoffs. I may have my Michael Jordan number 45 jersey on, but I figured playoff season was the perfect time to dust off the keyboard and fire off some picks. Before I do that though I want to give a huge, massive, shoutout to Andrew for keeping you all informed with Bick’s Picks during my hiatus. Don’t worry Jeff you get a shoutout for the Antithesis as well. Anyways, let’s dive into these games. I think I hate almost all of the lines, but we’re doing pick per game because I’m obviously betting every game.

Browns (-2) vs. Texans (44.5)

No surprises here with the schedule. The Texans are back in their 4:00 Saturday wild card slot. Well, the spot they share with the Bengals. I’m actually very excited for this game, having fresh faces in the playoffs is always fun. The Browns have had one of the more interesting seasons I can remember. Cycling through QBs like this doesn’t usually lead to an 11 win season, and the return of Joe Flacco has been quite a story. That all ends this weekend though. Come on, you know I have to ride with my man CJ Stroud. The Texans won a de facto playoff game last week so this team is ready to go. They get home field too after Jeff’s Jags choked away the division. Take the points if you’re not sold, but I think Houston wins outright.

The Play: Texans +2, Texans ML (+116)

Dolphins vs. Chiefs (-4.5) (44.5)

This game is interesting for a couple reasons. One, the Dolphins have been complete dogshit against playoff teams this year (1-5). Two, the Chiefs have not looked like themselves pretty much all season and still found a way to win their division. Three, it’s going to be absolutely freezing out during this game. All those factors, coupled with the fact that Patrick Mahomes plays QB in Kansas City, just screams Chiefs to me. Miami is banged up and haven’t been great on the road this season either. The line keeps moving so grab it now while you can. They did open at less than a field goal, if that was still the case this would’ve been my lock of the century, but for now it’s just a play.

The Play: Chiefs -4.5

Steelers vs. Bills (-10) (36.5)

Simply put this game is probably going to be gross. There might be some weather in Buffalo too. With TJ Watt out and Mason Rudolph starting for Pittsburgh the Bills should cover, but there’s a few reasons why I’m not touching this spread. The weather and the way the Steelers play offense will lend to a lower scoring game, and if that’s the case the backdoor is always open for a cover with a 10 point spread. I think your safest bet here is the under. The Bills jump out to an early lead, bleed the clock, and the Steelers pathetic offense doesn’t do much. In a battle of two teams that lost to the Patriots this year the Bills win a low scoring game.

The Play: Under 36.5

Packers vs. Cowboys (-7) (50.5)

This game will be a nice treat after you take your afternoon nap during the first game on Sunday. I’m tempted to take Dallas at home here. They’ve been absolutely steam rolling teams at Jerry World, but the Packers scare me a bit. They’ve been one of the most Jekyll and Hyde teams this year. You really never know what you’re getting with them. 7 points is a lot to be laying to a team that, if you get their A game, will cover this spread. Your guess is as good as mine on what Packers team we’ll see on Sunday though so, I’m not messing with the spread here. I do think we’ll see a lot of points so I like the over. Both of these teams were above .500 to the over this year and I think we get another one Sunday afternoon.

The Play: Over 50.5

Rams vs. Lions (-3) (51.5)

I’ve been struggling with how to feel about this game. This opened at Lions -4/-3.5 and if that was still the case I think I’d roll with the Rams in what should be a close game. I’m just not sure I can do that now with the line at 3. I think the Lions are able to sneak this one out even without Sam LaPorta who’s been huge for them this year. The Rams are also 1-6 against playoff teams this year and they have struggled on special teams this year as well. They haven’t really shown they can run with the big dogs this year and the Lions have. Jared Goff wins his revenge game in a barn burner and the Lions find a way to cover.

The Play: Lions -3

Eagles (-3) vs. Buccaneers (43.5)

We finish the week with another game I have no idea what to do with. As bad as the Eagles have looked since they beat the Chiefs and Bills, the Bucs have not been much better. With both teams limping into the playoffs I think the smartest thing to do is to take the team with the better roster and playoff experience. In this case that is the Eagles for sure. Let’s be real here too, do we expect a group run by Arians to show up on MLK Day of all days? Please, January 6th was last week. The Eagles are able to stop the Blitz(krieg) and tunnel their way to victory.

The Play: Eagles -3

Here we are Week 18. We made it. Who would’ve thought? Not me. It’s been a season of highs and lows here at Bick’s Picks but after two winning weeks we find ourselves at a 27-25-1 record going into the final week of regular season football. Last week we were almost perfect but alas the Triducken once again came up one leg short when Mike Evans failed to find pay dirt. As is tradition the last week of the regular season is the most meaningful while most also being the most meaningless of all. We got teams fighting for their playoff lives, we got teams who already clinched resting their starters and we got teams trying to ruin their draft pick. Despite all of the chaos Week 18 is bound to bring I’m confident we can pick some winners so let’s get into it.

Life’s Too Short to Bet the Under

Cowboys @ Commanders (46.5)

I’ll admit right away all the Week 18 shenanigans had me looking extra close at this week’s slate of totals. We got a lot backups playing and lots of bad weather but we do have some teams with something to play for and I saw the perfect matchup. The Cowboys are looking to win the NFC East and Washington is a spectacular dumpster fire. When these teams met earlier this season on Thanksgiving Dak and company practically covered the Over themselves. The Cowboys like to run up the score against bad teams and I expect them to do just that. It pains me to say it I do have some doubt that Howell can pull his weight but in the end it’s Dallas week and think the guys have enough pride to show up. The Over hits easy as the Cowboys roll and Washington secures the number 2 pick. 

Over 46.5

Fade Dawgs

Jaguars @ Titans (+4.5)

Simply put this is a bet that the Jaguars will choke. As bad as the Titans have been this season you know that Vrabel will have his team fired up to play spoiler. Sure the Jags stopped the bleeding last week with a win against the Panthers but that doesn’t make me feel any better about the way they’re trending. Lawrence is still a gametime decision to play and even if he does I’m not convinced that’s a good thing as he’s been a turnover prone mess. There is always a chance that the Jags actually show up for this must win game but my guess is history repeats itself and they lose outright and miss the playoffs just like they did two seasons ago. Gimme Vrabes and Titans all day.

Titans (+4.5)

Touchdown Triducken

Anytime TD Parlay: Mike Evans, Justin Fields, Ezekiel Elliott

I know what you’re saying “Wait a minute I thought I lost money on this parlay last week?” Well you did but I don’t think you will again. As I said earlier Mike Evans was the only leg to come up short and I don’t think he’s held out of the endzone against Carolina defense that he’s already score against this season. After that I once again looked to our pair of Buckeyes to get it done. Fields is playing the best ball of his pro career and another Zeke heavy script in a snow game will hopefully make the Triducken a winner once again.

Anytime TD Triducken: Mike Evans, Justin Fields, Ezekiel Elliott (+951)

Bick’s Stone Cold Lock of the Century of the Week

Jets @ Patriots (-2.5)

There aren’t many things you can count on but in my opinion you can count on the Pats beating the Jets. Sure there’s the occasional upset but even in a season when the Patriots have a worse record and are projected have a top 3 pick they’re somehow still favored. The main reason they’re favored this time is because Bill has the defense flying around making plays and forcing turnovers. Speaking of turnovers I’m expecting a bunch tomorrow especially with the sloppy weather conditions. Unfortunately Zappe might cough up the ball a couple times himself but I think the Pats are better able to capitalize on their chances. Concerns about Zappe aside I’m counting the Patriots playing hard and getting a win in what could be Belichick’s last game in New England.

Patriots (-2.5)