Kansas City Chiefs (14-3) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (14-3)

Spread: Eagles (-1.5) Total: (51)

One more NFL gambling blog for the season and it’s the most important pick of the year. Super Bowl 57 is finally here and what a game it should be. There are a lot of factors at play that make this game difficult to handicap. Let’s get into my pick for the spread and I’ll even throw out some props that I like at the end.

The Eagles have been the public betting favorite since the first lines went up after the AFC Championship game. They actually opened as 2 point underdogs, and so much money came in on them it flipped the line by the morning which has now settled at 1.5. This just feels eerily similar to the Bengals game for the Chiefs though. A hotshot team with a young QB, coming off a dominant win over a very good opponent gets all the love from the public. I don’t think I can make the same mistake again. Sure, the Chiefs have been horrendous ATS this year (7-11-1), but that’s mostly been due to them being favored by a large margin and not covering in a win. I understand the Chiefs are banged up too, but I still don’t see why we should be giving Patrick Mahomes any points in any game. As an underdog he is 7-1-1 ATS and 6-3 SU in 9 starts. Every time I think of a reason why the Eagles could win the game in my head my counterpoint is always “Patrick Mahomes.”

As for the rest of the game it’s tough to ignore the Eagles talent across the board. There’s no denying the names they have, but are we just going to forget the fact that the Chiefs defense only gave up 20 points to the Bengals two weeks ago? I mean just matching up offenses the Bengals are better at QB, RB, and WR. TE is a slight lean towards Philly and the offensive line is a runaway by the Eagles. I think people are underestimating what the Kansas City defense can do. When you look at the Chiefs too, especially on offense, they have guys that have been there before in big games and that experience could make a difference late in the game. It goes without saying, but the Chiefs also have the advantage at head coach as well. I don’t want to look back on this game and think to myself “why did I bet against Mahomes getting points?” Like I said earlier I’m not making that mistake again. I see Mahomes leading a late scoring drive to lift Kansas City to victory.

The Play: Chiefs +1.5

Final Prediction

Chiefs 23 Eagles 20

Props to Think About

For what it’s worth I like the Under in this game as well. I probably won’t bet it, but this total is sitting all the way up at 51 and I expect this game to be played tight especially early on. The Eagles also run a lot which lends to the under.

• Isiah Pacheco Any Time Touchdown (+120)
• Isiah Pacheco At Least 12 Carries (-106)
• Boston Scott Any Time Touchdown (+450)
• Over 3.5 Field Goals (+130)
• Kansas City Longest Punt Over 56.5 (+100)
• Patrick Mahomes Any Time Touchdown (+400)

Only three games remain in the NFL season and it looks like we’re primed for two really good ones this weekend. After a rough wild card showing we bounced back last week with a 3-1 record all ATS. Let’s see what we can do this weekend.

NFC Championship

49ers vs. Eagles (-2.5) (46.5)

If you know me and you’ve been reading my picks this year, then I think you know where I’m going with this one. Everyone seems to be really high on the Eagles right now and for good reason. They just dominated the Giants and when healthy they’ve easily been the best team in the NFL. They haven’t run up on a defense like the one they’re going to face this weekend though. The Eagles offensive line is probably their biggest strength and it’ll be put to the test on Sunday. The 49ers are going to have to generate pressure on Jalen Hurts. Just ask the Giants. If you give him time to sit back and throw he’s going to do some damage and the 49ers secondary has been shaky as of late. I do think if there’s a unit that can disrupt the Eagles seemingly impenetrable pass protection it’s the 49ers defensive line. For Brock Purdy and the offense it’s going to be another game of protecting the football and not making mistakes. The Eagles boast the leagues best passing defense so look for a heavy dose of Christian McCaffrey and Elijah Mitchell. They also have guys where if you just get them the ball they can make a play (Deebo, Aiyuk, Kittle), so I’d expect a lot of short throws and check downs to let those guys do their thing. I truly think San Francisco can win this game. You’ve heard it all week that a rookie QB has never made it to the Super Bowl as a starter, but that was before we knew about Brocktober. That has to change at some point right? Why not now? We ride into battle with the Niners on Sunday.

The Play: 49ers +2.5

AFC Championship

Bengals vs. Chiefs (-1) (47.5)

This line has swung like crazy over the last week. It opened with the Chiefs favored by 1.5. The next day it moved to favor the Bengals, who we’re all the way up at -2.5, before the line moved back to Kansas City -1 on Thursday. This has to be attributed to the uncertainty around Patrick Mahomes health. I have no doubts he plays in this game, but can he be as effective as he usually is with his legs? I’m not sure about that. While he can still stand in the pocket and carve up a defense, what makes him the most special is how he’s able to move in the pocket and extend plays. If he’s unable to do that the Chiefs will have trouble keeping pace with the Bengals offense. The Chiefs defense has also struggled at times this year and after seeing what the Bengals did to the Bills last week I expect more of the same. For the Bengals to win their defense is going to have to come up with stops in big spots. Sam Hubbard and Trey Hendrickson will need to put the pressure on a hobbled Mahomes in order for that to happen. They’ll also need to have a better game plan than the Jaguars did for Travis Kelce. Make one of the other receivers beat you. There’s no Tyreek Hill anymore and Mahomes has had to rely on Kelce more than ever. It’s easier said than done, but chipping him off the line or just putting a body on him can make a difference. The Jags never seemed to be in the same area code as him on half his catches and he burned them because of it. I think the Bengals have what it takes to get it done again in KC this year. They’ve been playing incredible football for the last couple months and despite still being really good this doesn’t feel like the powerhouse Chiefs teams of the last couple years. They still do have Patrick Mahomes, but the Bengals have Joe Burrow and he’s on Mahomes level now. Bengals punch their second straight ticket to the Super Bowl on Sunday.

The Play: Bengals +1

What a great round this is shaping up to be. All these games should be hotly contested. Let’s hope we do a bit better on the gambling side of things this time around. Last weekend we went 2-4 overall (2-3 ATS, 0-1 Totals) mostly thanks to the Chargers blowing a 27 point lead, and the Bengals/Ravens hitting the over by 1/2 a point. No time for excuses though time to buckle down and carve out a 4-0 weekend.

Jaguars vs. Chiefs (-8.5) (53)

We start the divisional round with the biggest spread of the weekend. Last time we saw the Chiefs they ran the Raiders out of their own building in Week 18. The Jaguars on the other hand made a furious comeback to erase a 27 point deficit despite 5 first half turnovers. When I look at this game I see a team in Kansas City that undoubtedly should win, but is 8.5 too much? The Chiefs finished the season 6-10-1 ATS this season. I know I used the same logic in their Week 18 game in Las Vegas that they weren’t covering due to inflated lines, and they stuffed me in a locker and won 31-13. The difference here is the Jaguars are a better team than the Raiders and this is essentially the same line (although this game is in KC). The Chiefs defense has been a problem for them this season, and I think that allows Jacksonville to hang around. The Jags need to finish drives in order to keep pace with the Chiefs who give up TDs on 67% of opponents redzone trips. We saw what not finishing opportunities can do last week with the Chargers leaving points on the board that allowed the Jaguars to get back into the game. I’m trusting Doug Pederson to be crafty with his offense on Saturday, and I think we get the Trevor Lawrence from the second half last week. If that’s the case I don’t see why the Jaguars can’t keep this to a touchdown.

The Play: Jaguars +8.5

Giants vs. Eagles (-7.5) (48)

This game basically comes down to how you feel about the Eagles health. I’m not sold on the fact that Jalen Hurts is 100% despite the fact that he’s off the injury report. I’m guessing Lane Johnson is going to play, but how is he going to look? Can Kayvon Thibodeaux take advantage? They also could be without cornerback Avonte Maddox as well. Then you have to wonder do I trust the Giants to take advantage? After last weeks performance I think I do. The Eagles defense has been very good this year so I don’t expect a ton of points from the Giants, but I think they’re good enough to stay competitive. I also have faith that Brian Daboll will have a different look for this game than he did last time these teams faced off with both teams starters playing (Eagles won 48-22). I do think Philly finds a way to win a close game. Divisional games in the playoffs tend to be played a little tighter as well. Look no further than last week with Bills/Dolphins and Bengals/Ravens. Both Underdogs covered and even had chances to win the game. With the line where it’s at just over a touchdown I like the Giants to cover. I think the leeway they’re giving you with that 1/2 point is too valuable to pass up.

The Play: Giants +7.5

Bengals vs. Bills (-5) (48.5)

Both these teams failed to cover last week despite facing backup QBs. Now this week they’ll each have to deal with each others equally scary QBs. Both guys have shown they can deliver in big moments and that’s what makes this game so highly anticipated. I love what both teams bring offensively and I don’t think either offense will have a problem scoring. The thing that is going to decide this game is which defense can get a stop when it matters? The Bills defense with Von Miller is a different animal, but without him they’ve taken a step back. While Greg Rousseau has been good in his second year at DE it still doesn’t make up for Millers absence. With all the Bengals injuries on the offensive line this is an area the Bills need to take advantage of, but without Miller I think Joe Burrow will have a clean enough pocket to do some damage on Sunday. The Bills offense feels like they have fallen into this mode lately where it seems like every play they’re throwing the ball deep. With them being a bit more one dimensional in that regard the Bengals are going to have to limit big plays down the field to guys like Diggs and Davis. If they can do that and force Buffalo to adjust their game plan they might be able to come up with enough key stops to win the game. I think with the spread up at 5 it gives enough wiggle room for the Bengals to slip up and lose, but still cover. This should be the best game of the weekend. I think it’s decided by a field goal. Either way the Bengals cover.

The Play: Bengals +5

Cowboys vs. 49ers (-3.5) (46)

The Cowboys looked impressive on Monday Night, and if they can jump on the Niners early like they did to the Bucs it could be a problem for San Francisco. You have to remember though. Tampa Bay is awful. I know I took them last week, but I was blinded by Tom Brady. Any other name there at QB and I would’ve went with Dallas. The 49ers started slow, but turned it on in the second half. I just think they’re defense is too good to look past right now. They will frustrate Dak, and I know he didn’t throw a pick last week, but I’m predicting multiple takeaways for the 49ers defense on Sunday. For San Francisco offensively all Brock Purdy has to do is take care of the football and let his playmakers do the rest. If he’s smart with the ball I can’t see the Cowboys being able to get any momentum going. With the line at 3.5 you’re going to have to sweat this one for awhile because Dallas will hang around early. I hate taking favorites at 3.5 because so many close games are won by a field goal, but I love the Niners in this one. Even if the game is close down the stretch Brett Mahar has completely forgot how to kick extra points apparently so who knows what could happen. One miss could change everything, but I don’t even think we get to that point. San Francisco controls the ball early and the Cowboys cripple themselves with second half turnovers. It’s fucking Brocktober baby, and it’s just getting started.

The Play: 49ers -3.5

It’s finally playoff time in the NFL. Before we get into the picks for each game I wanted to give a rundown on how I fared in the regular season with my picks:

Overall: 83-67-5 (55.16%) (2 canceled bets from Bills/Bengals)

• Thursday: ATS- 11-8 Total- 7-8-1
• Monday: ATS- 12-5 Total- 7-6-2
• Monday/Thursday: ATS- 23-13
• Favorite: 11-5-1
• Charlie Murphy’s Habitual Line Stepper of the Week (Underdog): 11-9
• Over: 8-9
• Under: 10-7
• Definitely Not My Lock of the Week: 6-10-1 (*all “lock” bets were ATS except 1)
• ATS Overall: 51-36-2
• Totals Overall: 32-31-3

Not terrible for having to shoehorn certain picks that maybe weren’t my favorite. It also seems that I tended to forget that I was supposed to be doing a lock of the week and picked the other four first and left that pick in no mans land. Anyways, next year I’ll probably adjust the format, but that’s not on my mind right now. Let’s get into the Wild Card slate where I’ll be giving one pick for each game.

Seahawks vs. 49ers (-9.5) (42.5)

I like the 49ers way too much for my own good right now. Their defense is championship caliber and Kyle Shanahan has done a good job at hiding Brock Purdy and playing to the strengths of his weapons on offense. The Seahawks faltered down the stretch, but still found a way into the playoffs thanks to the Lions win in Green Bay last Sunday. Nothing about the way they have been playing lately though makes me think they can win this game. Their offense hasn’t looked at all like what it did in the first half of the season and playing against this 49ers defense won’t help that cause. On the other side of the ball the 49ers have shown they can score enough against the Seahawks defense to cover this spread. They only won by 8 in their last matchup, but that game was played in Seattle. Not to mention they have scored over 30 points in 5 of their last 6 games. With home field advantage and momentum on their side San Francisco is the team to back in the playoff opener.

The Play: 49ers -9.5

Chargers (-2.5) vs. Jaguars (47.5)

This should be a close and competitive game. Potentially the best of the weekend. Jacksonville has surged into the playoffs on the heels of 5 straight wins. I just don’t know how sustainable that is for a team that still lacks the talent of a true contender. The Jags have been a fun team this year and I wish I felt stronger about them in this game, but unfortunately I don’t. The problem with that is the team on the other side of the ball doesn’t instill much confidence either. The Chargers have a rich history of fucking things up so I’m nervous to take them. What I do like though is that they finally seem to be reaching their potential, or at least what the media thought their potential should be. They also boast a very talented offense, one unlike the Jaguars have seen in the last few weeks. Jacksonville’s last three wins have come against Josh Dobbs, Davis Mills, and Zach Wilson. Not really a who’s who of talent there. That’s not to say they haven’t beaten anyone good, but I think the Chargers are bringing more firepower than they’ve seen recently. The line also plays a big factor here. I do think this will be a close game so to get this under 3 points is huge. This will come right down to the wire and the Chargers will come away with a one score victory.

The Play: Chargers -2.5

Dolphins vs. Bills (-13.5) (43.5)

This is going to be a whoopin’. The Dolphins will start Skylar Thompson for the second straight week with Tua and Teddy Bridgewater still on the shelf. The Bills offense appears to still be firing on all cylinders and I don’t think Miami will have much of an answer for it. Last time these teams faced off it was a 3 point game, but that game was started by Tua, and the Dophins gave up 32 points. I like the Bills to find themselves somewhere in the low 30’s on Sunday and if you think the Fins won’t score more than 17 (which I don’t think they will) then you have to go Bills here.

The Play: Bills -13.5

Giants vs. Vikings (-3) (48)

Just a few weeks ago this was a very competitive game that came down to a last second field goal by the Vikings to win it. I feel like we’re in for the same type of game, so I like the Giants to keep this close again. Kirk Cousins is 48-37-2 ATS at 1 pm or earlier and 21-32 ATS at 4 pm or later. I’ll take my chances with those odds. The Vikings are also 11-0 in one score games this season. Usually when you see teams squeaking out wins like that there will be a correction at some point. Whether that happens in the playoffs or the following season it will happen. The Vikings have gotten by winning some really tight and even straight up lucky games (think the Bills game) while all four of their losses have been by double digits. I’m not saying the Giants are going to go into Minneapolis and blow out the Vikings. This will be a close game and one the Giants can win. If Daniel Jones can take care of the football the Giants get the run game going with Saquon Barkley I like their chances Sunday afternoon.

The Play: Giants +3

Ravens vs. Bengals (-9) (40.5)

I’m waffling between two picks for this one. I don’t see any way the Bengals lose, but there is the possibility the Ravens keep this close because of their defense. Anthony Brown looks to be the starter for the Ravens if Tyler Huntley can’t go. Taking that into account the under looks juicy here too. I just don’t like how low the number is. These teams put up a combined 43 points just last week. Since Lamar has gone out though, 5 of the Ravens last 6 games have gone under 40 points. In fact none have gone over 30 besides the Bengals game. I would lean Bengals on the spread, but the Ravens defense makes me nervous with a 9 point line. The Ravens have only lost by more than 10 twice this year so they would’ve covered this spread in 15 of 17 games. I think with the uncertainties around the Quarterback position for the Ravens and the line where it’s at the under is a bit safer. If Huntley is able to go I still like the under and the line might move up a bit if you wanted to wait on this bet. You’re going to have to sweat it out, but it’s the play.

The Play: Under 40.5

Cowboys (-2.5) vs. Buccaneers (45.5)

The Buccaneers have not been good this year and they’ve been even worse ATS (4-12-1), but I love them in this spot for some reason. The Cowboys looked awful last week and while you can take that with a grain of salt you have to acknowledge Dak Prescott’s interception problem this year. He tied with Davis Mills for the NFL lead with 15 interceptions. If that’s not bad enough Mills played 15 games this year and Dak only played in 12. You can’t win in the playoffs if you turn the ball over and Dak hasn’t shown he can keep a clean sheet this year. Let’s also not forget that Tom Brady is lining up under center for the other team. He hasn’t looked like himself, but it’s still Tom Brady we’re talking about. I don’t think he has another magical Super Bowl run in him, but I have 20 years experience rooting for Brady when he was on the Pats and let me tell you this is the exact type of bullshit game he wins. As long as Todd Bowles doesn’t fuck anything up (BIG if) if you’re giving Brady points at home in the playoffs I’m taking it.

The Play: Buccaneers +2.5