Thanksgiving is here people, which once again means family, food, football, hopefully some financial gain and of course Madden quotes. Now some would think a Washington fan like myself wouldn’t have much to be thankful for this year but no matter how much my team stinks, Turkey Day is always the best day. Nothing can beat a day that specifically revolves around eating till you’re uncomfortably full and watching football all day. As always, before I get ahead of myself I do have last week to catch up on. Unfortunately for our friend Matthew that means recapping another BPOTD that came up short, but parlay pain something that I’m all too familiar with. So in the spirit of the holiday I’ll be giving him the day off as the Triducken makes its long awaited return. BPOTD wasn’t the only bet that fell short as the Pats couldn’t quite cover the lofty -13.5 we had picked for the Lock. However not all was lost as the Lions and Jameis hit the Over with ease. Followed by Shedeur and the Browns winning outright for the Dawg in his debut as a starter. But we don’t wanna pat ourselves on the back too much because like the late, great John Madden would say: “Self-praise is for losers. Be a winner. Stand for something. Always have class, and be humble.” Words to live by and it’s exactly what we’re gonna do. So without further delay fill up your plates and let’s get into it.

Feasting Favorites

Lions ML, Chiefs ML and Ravens ML

For those of you new to our Thanksgiving format you might be surprised to see no Dawgs today but we like to switch it up for the holiday. The reason for that is because it’s historically a day when the favorites thrive. Since 2004 favorites are a whopping 51-9 straight up and 40-20 against the spread. Now with numbers like that you’d think we would be cleaning up on this day every year but for the last couple seasons we’ve been burned by Dan Campbell’s ham eating ass coming up short of covering. So instead of rolling the dice on spreads I’m thinking we just parlay all favorites moneylines together. Is it the sexiest pick? No, but honestly it’s one I feel pretty good about. Now if you’re feeling bold I will leave the spread parlay down there just in case but we’ll be sticking to the ML. Either way you wanna bet it here’s hoping we get another chalky Turkey Day.

ML Parlay: Lions ML, Chiefs ML and Ravens ML (+220)

BOLD Parlay: Lions -2.5, Chiefs -3.5, Ravens -7 (+544)

Touchdown Triducken

Anytime TD Parlay: Jahmyr Gibbs, Derrick Henry & Rashee Rice

That’s right people it’s back! Sure the Triducken hasn’t always been our most profitable bet but it’s always held a special place in my heart. As a homage to the Turkducken and Madden it can’t be beat. Sure it typically ends up being more like Subway’s abomination the Turhamken but here’s hoping this year it’s a winner rather than a crappy sandwich with soggy croutons. So after that optimism let’s get into who’s hitting pay dirt and I’m gonna keep it simple. Since we’ve already backed all the favorites, why not bet on the players with the best odds to score for them? Seems almost too simple but honestly it’s a bet I really like. I feel like Gibbs and Henry are locks given their workload and the Cowboys secondary bound to give up some big plays. You could maybe throw Kelce or Hunt in there for Chiefs instead but personally I’m gonna have my turkey with a side of Rice.

Anytime TD Triducken: Jahmyr Gibbs, Derrick Henry & Rashee Rice (+282)

Week 12 is here people and I don’t know who needs a bye week more, the Washington Commanders or us at Bick’s Picks because despite our best efforts it continues to be a tough season. Mercifully the NFL has at least given us a break from Washington football but like it or not there’s no week off from the picks. As always though before we present our ramblings on how to lose your beer money we gotta dwell on the failures of last week. Unfortunately for our guest pick, Brady’s Parlay of the Day continues to be included in that category as they can’t seem to find the winning combination. Meanwhile Bick’s Picks woke up extra early only to fumble ourselves to a 1-2-1 week. Adding another Over for the Spain game just doubled the disappointment as OT couldn’t get Washington the win or even get us to that total. Then there was the Lock that honestly really should’ve been a hit but the Rams just had to let the Seahawks get that backdoor cover despite 4 interceptions by Sam Darnold. Before that win was stolen from us the Dawg was also robbed as the Packers gave us our first push of the season by succeeding on a 2 point conversion in the final minutes to deny us Giants +7. Now technically last week wasn’t a complete loss as we did atleast get an easy Over win thanks to the Bucs/Bills shootout. Honestly I feel like Week 11 perfectly summed up the kind of betting season it’s been for us, the good, the bad and the ugly mixed with a dash of snatching defeat from the claws of victory. This week though perhaps having my miserable team on bye will allow me to see this slate a little more clearly so let’s get into it.

Life’s Too Short to Bet the Under

Giants @ Lions (50.5)

Now I know I said last week would likely be the first and last time we bet on New York but they technically didn’t lose our bet so we’re back again! Obviously the main reason we’re on this game is Detroit, as I’m expecting them to do most of the heavy lifting to get us to this total. After they laid an egg on the road in Philly I expect them to bounce back at home. That’s kinda been the Lions M.O. this season and I expect that to continue against a Giants team that always leaves the backdoor open. Don’t get me wrong they’ve been a scrappy team and at the very least have done their best to make things entertaining despite coming up short time and time again. So even though I expect a Detroit rebound to be where most of our points come from I also expect Jameis and the G-Men to put a couple on the board.

NYG/DET Over 50.5 (-120)

Fade Dawgs

Browns (+3) @ Raiders

One of our readers texted me this morning asking if they were crazy for liking the dogs today but I’m not sure if they were intending on being this crazy. Sure the play could be the comically low 35.5 total but instead we’re riding with Shedeur in his debut as a starter. All jokes aside, the real reason we’re believing in Cleveland is that they have the best unit on the field. Myles Garrett and that defense have managed to keep them in seemingly every game even against superior competition. Today however they face the Raiders and I’m not sure that Geno survives this game. Who knows maybe picking this Dawg is too crazy but hopefully we’re crazy like a fox not stupider.

Browns +3 (+100)

Brady’s Parlay of the Day

The Parlay: Chiefs ML, Seahawks -12.5, Buccaneers +7

Another 1-2 week for us last week, it’s time to right the ship this week.

Leg 1, the Colts vs Chiefs. Is the Chiefs dynasty really over? I’m not going to lie, I’ve loved watching their underwhelming season so far as they sit at 5-5. I however am a realist and don’t think they are going away without a fight, I see them taking care of business at home this week in a close one with Indy. Take the Chiefs moneyline.

Leg 2, in a game that no one is interested in we have the Seahawks and the Titans. Tennessee blows like really really blows. I expect Seattle to take care of them easy. Take Seattle with the spread.

Finally leg number 3, we are going back to the night game which has served us well in prior weeks. We have the Bucs vs Rams in what should be a good game between two first place teams in the NFC. The spread in this one favors the Rams by 7 but I expect a closer game than that so let’s take the Bucs +7 in this one to finish off our parlay.

Brady’s Parlay of the Day: Chiefs ML, Seahawks -12.5, Buccaneers +7 (+450)

Bick’s Stone Cold Lock of the Century of the Week

Patriots (-13.5) @ Bengals

Now our loyal readers, especially the Pats fans should recognize this alt spread. Week 1 last season I disrespected New England by predicting that a Burrow led Bengals would blow doors and start the Mayo era with resounding defeat. I think we all know how that went. However in the end even though I was right about Mayo wow wow wow what a difference a year makes. Vrabel skipped right past the rebuild and right now has this team poised to secure a playoff bye. Now I know playing with alt spreads can be a recipe for disaster and I’m sure some will complain I’m a mush but take this for the compliment that it is. Frankly there’s no reason New England shouldn’t beat up on a Flacco led Bengals that has no Ja’Mar Chase. On top of that we all know the Bengals defense is arguably the worst in the league especially with no Trey Hendrickson. So even though I deep down hate to say it, the Patriots Maye be good.

Patriots -13.5 (+157)

Week 11 is here people and we’re coming to you early since we’ll be locked into the NFL’s historic debut in Spain this morning. Now I’ll admit I wasn’t always a fan but I’ve warmed up to the NFL Europe games. It’s nice to have the option to quite literally watch football all day long. Sure these morning games aren’t always the best product but I appreciate them like a prelim card for a UFC event. Let’s not get ahead of ourselves though we’ve got last week to quickly dwell on. Week 10 was by no means a losing week but even though we went 2-1 it kinda felt like one. Sure the Pats won it for the Dawg against the Bucs but I can’t say that I enjoyed being right about what Detroit did to Washington. The Lions certainly seemed like they were trying to send a message and I guess my silver lining is that they didn’t hit the total all by themselves. Now as for actual loss the Lock, it turns out I was actually a week off because the Panthers were the sad cats all along. It also seems like parlays might just be cursed on this blog as Brady’s Parlay of the Day has hit a rough patch, fingers crossed today he turns things around. But that’s enough about last week there’s plenty of wins to be had on this slate so grab a coffee and a churro and let’s get into it.

Life’s Too Short to Bet the Under Early Bird Edition

Commanders @ Dolphins (47.5)

Buccaneers @ Bills (46.5)

Yup that’s right TWO Overs. The one benefit of being up early for this NFL Europe game is that I can actually tell you to bet on it! Now I wouldn’t be so bold as to tell you to pick Washington, I’m far too pessimistic right now but I expect a fair bit of scoring in Madrid. Sure both teams are ass but we got a couple flying Hawaiians at quarterback looking to put on a show for the world and I think Mariota and Tua will do enough to get us to that total. Now the reason there’s a second Over is I expect some people to miss the early game. I can forgive people for not being locked into a matchup of 3-7 disappointments. However, a game that everyone should try to watch is Bucs vs Bills. This slate is full of good matchups and this might be one of the more entertaining ones. Both are winning teams with championship aspirations coming off losses so you gotta think both are eager to right the ship. Either way we’re obviously rooting for a day full of touchdowns so let’s hope these two early matchups deliver.

WAS/MIA Over 47.5 (-110)

TAM/BUF Over 46.5 (-112)

Fade Dawgs

Packers @ Giants (+7)

I’m gonna be honest this might be the first and last time that you see us bet the Giants here at Bick’s Picks but we gotta support Jaboo. Now that Daboll is finally gone New York is doing the right thing and giving the people what they want. The #FreeJameis posts have paid off and we also get the chance to scratch that “head coach just got fired itch” so you know I had to be on this game. Add that with the fact something is just off about the Packers. Personally I’ve always thought Jordan Love was stinky but good lord that display against the Eagles on MNF was just gross. Now that I’ve said this there’s a good chance the Pack will finally wake up but at least we can count on Jameis to make it entertaining.

Giants +7 (-105)

Brady’s Parlay of the Day

The Parlay: Buccaneers +5.5, SEA/LAR Over 48.5, 49ers ML

My apologies, I have really sucked the past two weeks going 1/3 each time and I’m going to try my hardest to get us back in the win column this week. 

The 1st leg is the Bucs vs Bills, this is shaping up to be a really competitive game this weekend which makes me wonder why Tampa is getting 5.5 points here. Buffalo has been inconsistent over the past month or so and Tampa is coming off a loss to the best team in the league. Both teams need this game and I’m feeling a close one either way, take the Bucs with the spread. 

Leg number 2, another game that shapes up to be a great to watch as the Rams and Seahawks face off for first place in the NFC West. Two very good offenses here makes me think about a lot of points being put up in this one. Let’s take the Over here at 48.5 

Final leg of the day and we are staying in the NFC West. The 49ers face the Cardinals who are still without Kyler Murray and now have added Marvin Harrison Jr to the list of players who will miss this game. The Niners get Brock Purdy back this week who could be a little rusty but I still think they get the job done against Arizona. Take the Niners moneyline.

Brady’s Parlay of the Day: Buccaneers +5.5, SEA/LAR Over 48.5, 49ers ML (+456)

Bick’s Stone Cold Lock of the Century of the Week

Seahawks @ Rams (-3)

Last week was definitely one of those times where I got too cute with the Lock. I spoke with several of you and I had no explanation for why I really thought the Panthers would cover. That said I’m not gonna claim I have rational thinking behind half my picks. I mean you read the Dawg today didn’t you? But I digress this small tangent has nothing to do with today’s pick because I can tell you why I like the Rams and that’s Matt Stafford. Now admittedly some of you know I’m not his biggest fan but I can’t deny how good he’s been this season. He’s also why I give the edge to LA over Seattle because I certainly trust him more than I do Sam Darnold. The former Jet certainly looks much better than his days of seeing ghosts but I think Jared Verse and company could be just the defense to bring back some of those old bad habits. Now I’ll admit I wish the line was still the -2.5 it opened at but the -3 is better than the -3.5 I was seeing yesterday so let’s just hope Puka and Davante score enough it doesn’t matter.

Rams -3 (-120)

Week 10 is here people and frankly I’d like to pretend that Week 9 never happened. Sure I enjoyed some perfect football weather while attending the Pats game but that was clearly all the fun I was allowed to have that day. Not only did we have our first 0-3 week here at Bick’s Picks, the nightmare season for the Washington Commanders continued. Yet another disgraceful loss in primetime and worst of all the injuries simply won’t stop piling up. It was undoubtedly gonna be a tougher season but this has been painful to watch. So obviously the Dawg didn’t hit as my blind faith in Jayden was not rewarded. Before that brutal loss the Lock and the Over also let us down. I got no excuses for the Over, I don’t know what I was thinking with the Texans. As for the Lock I guess this is also the season where I shouldn’t bet the Chiefs because whenever I do they flop. Unfortunately our losing has been contagious as Brady’s Parlay of the Day also came up short giving us all a winless Week 9. So like I said earlier, why don’t we do ourselves a favor by pretending last week never happened and let’s get into it.

Life’s Too Short to Bet the Under

Lions @ Commanders (49.5)

Full disclosure I had the Ravens game here first but I simply can’t shake the feeling that Dan Campbell is gonna try to destroy Washington. Even though it feels like a lifetime ago I certainly remember how much fun I had watching us beat the Lions in the playoffs so you can guarantee Detroit remembers the loss. Add that with the fact they’re actually coming off a close loss to the Vikings this is a big rebound spot with a chance to send a message. Now you won’t see me outright pick against Washington unlike SOME people but this is about as close as you’ll see me get. I do think Mariota will move the offense some and hopefully add to the total but who knows maybe Goff drops a 50 burger on us. Hey maybe the Commanders will put on an inspired performance for the President but in the end it’s more likely Donald changes his mind about having our stadium named after him.

Over 49.5 (-108)

Fade Dawgs

Patriots (+2.5) @ Buccaneers

Given my luck picking games this season I’m sure Pats fans won’t love this pick but frankly I’m flattered you think Bick’s Picks has that much of an impact. Truthfully this is the pick for 3 reasons: 1. I honestly had no clue what other Dawg to choose (I wasn’t picking the Niners you’re welcome Jesse), 2. It’s arguably the game of the week and most importantly 3. I think New England can win this game. Drake Maye has been phenomenal putting together a season reminiscent of what JD5 did last season. Much like my QB there is some concern about the amount on his plate and all the hits the kid takes but right now it’s all about the results. Winners of 6 straight it’s hard to not see them keep rolling to make it 7. That said, winning won’t be easy because Tampa also has Baker playing at an MVP level despite dealing injuries issues as bad as Washington’s. But that’s also where I give New England the edge in the end because even though they’re coming off the bye the Bucs still aren’t 100% especially on offense. Oh and since ya’ll know how much I love silly stats I gotta share that Todd Bowles is 0-3 off the bye in Tampa and 1-6 all time as a head coach. Even with a sexy stat like that the ML has been so unkind to the Dawg so we’re gonna take the points just in case they’re firing the cannons in a close one at Raymond James.

Patriots +2.5 (+100)

Brady’s Parlay of the Day

The Parlay: Jaguars -1.5, Bills -9.5, Lions -8.5 (+662)

Last week was the worst week for BPOTD so far as only 1/3 legs hit. We’ll try to make up for that this week and get us back into the win column.

First leg the Jags vs the Texans without CJ Stroud. The Texans have been bad with their franchise QB, I can’t imagine it will get any better with Davis Mills this week. Take the Jags to cover a small spread on the road at 1.5

Second leg will feature a matchup of inferior AFC East teams now that the Pats are back at the top where they belong, as the second place Buffalo Bills take on the dumpster fire that is the Miami Dolphins. Look for the Bills to win by a bunch in this one and take them at -8.5.

Lastly, I want to start by saying that this pick is not a shot at Andrew and his beloved Commanders, but I couldn’t resist taking the Lions this week with Daniels out for Washington. The spread is only 7.5 and I expect the Lions to come out fired up after their postseason loss to Washington last year. Take Detroit to cover the spread.

Brady’s Parlay of the Day: Jaguars -1.5, Bills -9.5, Lions -8.5 (+662)

Bick’s Stone Cold Lock of the Century of the Week

Saints @ Panthers (-5.5)

Your eyes don’t deceive you! We’ve another Lock appearance by the Carolina Reapers. The Panthers have been a frisky team all season and despite having to survive a brief Dalton stint they’re still a surprising 5-4. Meanwhile for the Saints the Tyler Shough era has begun and he looked about as good as he probably could against the Rams but today I think he struggles. Add that with the fact the Saints were sellers at the deadline. Sure didn’t have a fire sale like the Jets but they sold enough that I think they’re a worse team than a week ago. Chances are I’m off a week picking this team but the way I see it if they can win at Lambeau they should be able to cover at home. Meow.

Panthers -5.5 (-108)

Week 9 is here people and I don’t know about the rest of you but I appreciated the extra hour of sleep we were given back by Daylight Savings time. Now although I’m well rested what I really wish I could get back was our picks from last week as once again we missed the mark. Bick’s Picks once again farted out another 1-2 week and it started with the Dawg, which honestly was doomed from the start after I made a point to highlight how 1pm underdogs have struggled I picked one anyways. Then I followed it up by foolishly picking the Bengals even though I knew the Jets would finally win one after the sudden passing of Nick Mangold. Meanwhile things weren’t any better for Brady’s Parlay of the Day as Caleb Williams was who I thought he was and the Ravens didn’t let him off the hook. Now not all was lost the Giants and Eagles managed to hit the Over for us even though the football gods might’ve sacrificed Skattebo’s leg to get there. As a result October ended up being a .500 month for us here Bick’s Picks but we strive for better than the Jeff Fisher standard so time to put spooky season behind us and let’s get into it.

Life’s Too Short to Bet the Under

Broncos @ Texans (40.5)

I don’t know how this keeps happening but I keep talking myself into betting on the Texans this year. I feel like in general I just avoid the AFC South because ew, but here we are again. Now of course this pick isn’t because of Houston specifically it’s all about that total. The 40.5 is the lowest of the day and frankly the main reason I’m on this game. Attractive numbers aside I’m also a Bo-liever. I think that the Denver offense can do enough to get us to get us at least half the number and with Surtain out it’s likely that Stroud and company won’t be complete no-shows either. Here’s hoping my instincts are right and this is an Over we hit with ease.

Over 40.5 (-105)

Fade Dawgs

Seahawks @ Commanders (ML)

Apologies in advanced if these picks seem a little brief because we’ll actually be in Foxboro for a little football today thanks to friend of the blog Ben. That said the picks should still be quality even if the write-ups are short. With that said: Jayden. That’s the pick that’s the reason. I don’t care if it’s a night game, I don’t care if you wanna fade the pick, I don’t care if you think we’re cooked, that’s the pick. I had unwavering belief in the kid last year and even though this season is off to a less than ideal start I gotta believe that no matter the circumstance JD5 gives us a chance to win. So buckle up it’s time to try and #RaiseHail in primetime again. 

Commanders ML (+130)

Brady’s Parlay of the Day

The Parlay: Pats -4.5, Lions -8.5, Bills ML

We came up one leg short last week as we found out Da Bears are a pretender and couldn’t even beat the Lamar Jacksonless Ravens. My apologies for believing in that sad excuse for a football team and I’ll try to make up for it this week.

Patriots continue to roll and face the Falcons this week at home. I’m expecting them to continue the hot streak and take care of business against Atlanta. Take the Pats -5.5

JJ McCarthy comes back for the Vikings this week against Detroit, as Wentz goes down for the year. Maybe Minnesota should have paid Darnold after all as he is looking good in Seattle. I expect the Lions to roll in this one, take Detroit -8.5

Final leg features what shapes up to be the best game this week. AFC championship rematch between Buffalo and Kansas City. Good thing for the Bills is it’s a regular season game and they will be allowed to win this one! I expect a close game here but I like the Bill as a dog at home. Take Buffalo ML.

Brady’s Parlay of the Day: Pats -4.5, Lions -8.5, Bills ML (+608)

Bick’s Stone Cold Lock of the Century of the Week

Chiefs (-2.5) @ Bills

Well it was bound to happen eventually but Brady and I finally have ourselves our first fade-off. Now some of you may have thought I have some hand in the BPOTD but his picks are his own so this day was likely inevitable. Now as for the pick itself I’m going with the team and the quarterback that I also feel is inevitable. Sure the Chiefs have been up and down this year but Mahomes has still been great as ever and now that they got Rashee Rice back they’ve really hit their stride. On the flip side I don’t know if it’s because he got married or what but something also slightly off about Josh Allen and the Bills this year. It might just be that they’re shook by the Patriots quick turn around, but my plums say that Kansas City pulls this one out just like they always do against Buffalo in the playoffs.

Chiefs -2.5 (-105)

Week 8 is here people and full disclosure morale is a little low here. As a Washington fan I gotta admit things were more fun when our players were healthy and we were winning games. But thankfully decades of disappointment prepared me for the inevitable return to the status quo. My pessimism aside, we actually are coming off a winning week here at Bick’s Picks. Heck it might’ve even been a perfect week but I just had to chase that interim coach voodoo. First though I gotta give props to Brady’s Parlay of the Day who is doing their best to upstage me by securing a fairly easy win for our readers. Not to be completely outdone, Bick’s Picks did manage to have a 2-1 week. First the Panthers finally came through for the Lock and later on it didn’t matter that it was the highest point total of the year the Over hit with ease because Commanders’ defense is absolutely pitiful. However, like I said earlier that 3-0 week remains elusive because the Titans are who we thought they were as the dead cat didn’t bounce, it just exploded on the sidewalk. As always though we can’t sweat the losses or the supposed Week 8 byepocalypse there’s still plenty of games on slate and bets to be placed so let’s get into it.

Life’s Too Short to Bet the Under

Giants @ Eagles (44.5)

The Over has been one of our better bets this season but I’ll admit today I had a little trouble nailing down where I wanted to go with this one. Between all the byes and seemingly every game featuring at least one backup QB it took a minute to decide where the points will be. In the end I just go with what I think I know and that’s the NFC East. Much like any time I tell our readers to bet anyone in this division besides Washinghton you’ll be hard pressed for me to hand out compliments but I’ll do my best. The Giants have a guy in Jaxson Dart. Even without what should be his top target in Nabers he’s turned the Giants offense around turning them into a threat to most teams. Now their ability to hold leads? They’re still working on that. On the other side Philly should be eager to get some revenge after an embarrassing loss to this team only a few weeks ago. Sure they’re without AJ Brown but I don’t know I just have a feeling both these teams are gonna show up and give us a shoot out. And as always if I’m wrong at least I already hate these teams. 

Over 44.5 (-105)

Fade Dawgs

49ers (ML) @ Texans

Safe to say this hasn’t been a season for the Dawgs here at Bick’s Picks. Our record has not been great struggling to a suboptimal 2-5 start but hey this segment earned the name Fade Dawgs for a reason. We own our losses here but I feel obligated to point out betting early Dawgs has been a risk. For the 1pm games favorites are now 34-18 against the spread which is less than ideal. But what am I gonna do, change the segment? I already outsourced the parlay so can’t get rid of the Dawg too. So after that rousing pep talk let’s see if I can talk you into the Niners because I hate Caleb Williams too much to piggyback the BPOTD Dawg. I’m admittedly not a fan of either of these teams so you’re not gonna get some ringing endorsement of Mac Jones and company but at this point I’ve seen enough of the Texans to confidently bet against them. Now you could take the +2.5 but I personally think San Fran wins outright. C’mon CMC do it for the Dawgs.

49ers ML (+120)

Brady’s Parlay of the Day

The Parlay: Bears ML, Pats -7, GB/PIT Over 45.5

We hit again last week making BPOTD 3-3 so far here on Bick’s Picks. Hoping to get over that .500 hump this week!

Bears vs Ravens without Lamar. The Ravens have put up a total of 13 points in two games without their franchise QB and somehow are favored in this game…? The Bears have won 4 straight and I’m betting they extend it to 5. Take the Bears moneyline.

The Pats are back baby and this week we get the putrid Cleveland Browns as we look to win our 5th straight! Give me the Pats by a billion! Take the Pats -7.

For the final leg we are going back to the Sunday night game featuring Aaron Rodgers trying to become only the 5th QB to have beaten all 32 teams as he faces off against his former team the Green Bay Packers. I thought for a while about who to pick in this game and honestly I don’t really have a strong case for picking either to win so I’m betting on lots of points being scored in this one. Take the Over on Sunday Night.

Brady’s Parlay of the Day: Bears ML, Pats -7, GB/PIT Over 45.5 (+701)

Bick’s Stone Cold Lock of the Century of the Week

Jets @ Bengals (-5.5)

That’s right people, we’re riding with Joe Flacco for the Lock. There’s a good chance we might be a week late to capitalize on that new team magic but honestly the reason we’re on the Bengals is the Jets are rolling out Justin Fields again. Sure Cinci’s defense is suspect but Fields quite literally can’t throw the ball. Add that with the fun fact the last time these teams met Joe was actually slinging it for New York. I like a little revenge angle in my bad football games. Flacco also clearly understands the assignment and knows how to find Ja’Marr Chase so hopefully that’ll be enough against a team that will struggle to even move the ball. Now since I’m late (of course) getting this out I have to acknowledge the sudden passing of Nick Mangold. He was an Ohio State and Jets legend so New York might give us an inspired performance that makes me eat my words. But hey it’s too late to pivot now so we’re just gonna go for it and hope elite Joe Cool shows up today.

Bengals -5.5 (-112)

Week 7 is here people and can we just talk for a second about how crazy a start this season has gotten off to? I know the NFL loves its parity but it’s getting a little ridiculous. It’s obviously made things tough here at Bick’s Picks but it’s not just us as this has been one of the worst starts for public bettors for a long time. The bots over at Action Network say that teams with 60%+ of tickets this season are 15-36 against the spread through six weeks which is the worst record through 6 weeks in the 23 year history of their stats. Heck it only gets worse the more confident the public is as teams with 70%+ tickets this season are 4-16 ATS and a staggering 0-7 ATS when those teams are at home. Needless to say there might be some truth to fading the public and I’m hoping you faded us last week as we farted out another 1-2 performance. First the Ravens finally decided to play enough defense to kill the Over and at the same I foolishly picked the Browns as my Dawg, who they clearly made a mistake in letting Flacco go if they wanted to beat Pittsburgh. Even 

Brady’s Parlay of the Day came up a leg short as SNF couldn’t deliver enough points. Thankfully at least the Pats were able to contain the Rattler just enough to secure the Lock. As always we can’t sweat our losses because there’s still plenty of football left and money to be made so let’s get into it.

Life’s Too Short to Bet the Under

Commanders @ Cowboys (54.5)

Remember all that talk about fading the public? Well throw that out because we’re not betting a spread instead we’re getting nuts and betting the biggest total of the season so far. Heck not only is this largest total of 2025 this likely close as the highest for a Washington vs Dallas game since 1980. Stats like that might give others pause but we’re undettered here at Bick’s Picks because we’ve seen how bad both of these defenses can be. I also have faith that my guy Jayden will be eager to respond after fumbling away a victory on MNF. Along with that faith I also have the ever growing dread that Dak will be able to get whatever he wants. That goon is 11-2 against us and it’s hard for me to see us slowing him down especially with Ceedee back. Lord knows we would never bet against JD5 and company but I definitely hope we can come out on top of what everyone is expecting to be a shootout in Arlington.

Over 54.5 (-105)

Fade Dawgs

Patriots @ Titans (+6.5)

The Vrabel Bowl is here and you had to expect us to have a little skin in this game. Now I know I’ve been on your side all this season but sorry Pats fans not this time. Believe me it’s nothing personal but after that whole fade the public spiel I had to follow through. Not to mention how could we not bet on the first interim coach game of the season. Sure the Titans suck but this is a tough spot for New England. They’re already trying to do something that hasn’t happened since 1961 and that’s win 3 consecutive regular season road games. So clearly a tough spot for any team but even more so battling the interim coach bump. Now as someone who really lets the numbers influence their bets I’m obligated to say I HATE that the line moved this morning. +7 is a lot nicer than the +6.5 we’re left with or the +6 I’m seeing some places. So if you can manage to find that half a point take it or heck tease up to +7.5 to play it safe. Either way even though I’m not expecting an upset we are hoping this dead cat bounces just enough to cover for the Dawg. 

Titans +6.5 (-112)

Brady’s Parlay of the Day

The Parlay: Eagles -1.5, Giants +7.5, LAC/IND Over 48.5

I first want to apologize for the Lions lackluster performance on SNF last week and killing our chances at making some cash last week. So far BPOTD is 2-3 and we are hoping to get back in the win column this week.

Leg number 1, Carson Wentz gets to face off against the team that drafted him and the Eagles are coming off an embarrassing loss on Thursday Night Football to the Giants. Wentz hasn’t looked terrible in relief of injured JJ McCarthy but give me the Eagles in this one in a get right game with extra time to prepare. Take the Eagles -1.5. 

Leg number 2 features a game that no one probably has any interest in as the Giants and Broncos face off in Denver. The Broncos barely beat the awful excuse for a football team in the Jets last week in London and now they get the giants coming off a big win against the defending champs. Somehow the Broncos are favored by a good margin in this one and I’m trying to figure that one out. Give me the Giants +7.5. 

Final leg of the day, this time we will avoid the night game and wrap up the results early. Hopefully it will hit this week for us! We are going to try the over again in a game featuring two teams that know how to put points on the board. The Colts go back to LA where they had their only loss of the season to the Rams. This time they face the Chargers and I’m expecting both teams to put up good numbers in this one. Take the Over at 48.5

Brady’s Parlay of the Day: Eagles -1.5, Giants +7.5, LAC/IND Over 48.5 (+584)

Bick’s Stone Cold Lock of the Century of the Week

Panthers (-1.5) @ Jets

Well since we already bet the highest total of the year and backed the worst team in football I figured why not get reckless with the Lock too. Now some of you might question why this is a risk but don’t let the Rico Dowdle renaissance blind you from the fact this is the Panthers. This team hasn’t won a game as a favorite since 2021 and are a gross 0-10 in that time. Now I know what you’re thinking, wait a minute don’t you love silly stats like that? And you’re right I love them but I simply can’t shake another stat and that’s -10 yards passing. I don’t care what excuses Aaron Glenn wants to make for Justin Fields, a performance like that is simply atrocious. Sure he almost literally can’t be that bad again but with Garrett Wilson unlikely to play I can’t imagine things get that much better. So be like me and ignore all the Carolina red flags and bet against the goddamn Jets.

Panthers -1.5 (+100)

Week 6 is here people and I don’t know about the rest of you but it feels like fall is officially upon us. The leaves are changing colors, football is in full swing, the Jankees have been eliminated from the playoffs and there’s Halloween decorations everywhere. Simply no better time of the year. The best sports month has also been a profitable one for us so far as we started off October on a good note. First off props to Brady’s Parlay of the Day on their big win which was capped off by Drake Maye spoiling the debut of those lame tin foil Bills unis. Bick’s Picks also managed another 2-1 week on our quest to get back to .500. First the Texans delivered the Over all on their way to crushing the Lamar-less Ravens. Next the Broncos not only covered for the Dawg they won outright while potentially breaking the Iggles in the process. However the Lock fell flat on its face as I should’ve known better than to bet Sam Darnold during spooky season. But we can’t sweat the ghosts of bad bets past so let’s get into it.

Life’s Too Short to Bet the Under

Rams @ Ravens (43.5)

As if my ancient iphone wasn’t evidence enough, I’m clearly a big fan of the saying “if it ain’t broke then don’t fix it”. Which is exactly what brings us back to the Over’s best friend the Ravens. Now unfortunately for Baltimore a few things are broken but that’s also what gives us confidence betting against their defense. With a pharmacy receipt for an injury report it’s hard to expect that they’ll suddenly be able to stop anyone. It would be a genuine surprise if Puka and company couldn’t put up numbers but if they don’t go off for a 40 burger we got some birthday juju working for the other side. Our friend and often critic of Bick’s Picks, JG will be in attendance. So even if he doesn’t get a win we’re betting that he at least gets to see some TD’s on his birthday. So let’s run it back with Charm City one more time before Vegas catches on.  

Over 43.5 (-115)

Fade Dawgs

Browns (+5.5) @ Steelers

I won’t lie, this pick is all plums with a side order of hate. I don’t care about will.i.am’s record after the bye, I can’t shake the fact I want Rodgers to lose. Sure you argue I shouldn’t let such feelings cloud my judgment but I’d ask are you new here? I certainly won’t try to hype up Cleveland’s offense but their defense, especially their pass rush, is a force to be reckoned with. Maybe we shouldn’t expect Myles Garrett and company to pull off an upset but at the very least I am expecting some elder abuse in Pittsburgh today that keeps this game close. We may not be at the Dawg Pound today but we’re certainly riding with them.

Browns +5.5 (+100)

Brady’s Parlay of the Day

The Parlay: Rams -7, Buccaneers ML, Det/KC Over 52.5

The 1st leg of the day seems too easy so hopefully it doesn’t let us down early today. The Rams visit the Ravens without Lamar and all it takes to beat the spread is winning by slightly more than a touchdown? Sign me up, take the Rams -7. Leg 2 features a good one in the 4:00 window with the 4-1 Bucs taking on the 4-1 Niners at home. Both teams have overcome a lot of big injuries early in the season and it’s honestly impressive that they are both sitting here with only one loss. This one seems like a coin flip to me but let’s go with the Bucs at home to win a close one. Take the Bucs moneyline. I tried to talk myself out of using the Sunday night game again but it paid off for us last week when our hometown Pats took down the undefeated Bills and Brady’s Parlay of the Day hit for the second time in its brief 4 week existence here on Bick’s Picks. So we are going into the night game for the final leg, I couldn’t convince myself that the NFL would let the Chiefs start 2-4 even though they have looked really bad so far. So let’s go with the over in this one as at the very least there should be a good amount of scoring in this one. Take the over in the Lions vs Chiefs on SNF.

Brady’s Parlay of the Day: Rams -7, Buccaneers ML, Det/KC Over 52.5 (+469)

Bick’s Stone Cold Lock of the Century of the Week

Patriots (-3.5) @ Saints

Once again I got too cute with the Lock. This pick has to be about plums and the bet I feel the best about which is what I said last week but fell for the trap of a good game. Sure, the Bucs vs Seahawks game certainly delivered from an entertainment and fashion perspective but it certainly didn’t help my wallet. Not falling for that good game trap this week though! I’m here for a one-sided affair where we don’t have to sweat it out. In a week full of road favorites and potential blowouts I’m riding with the Pats. Now I know what you’re thinking this has let down written all over it especially since I’m betting the Lock against the NFC South again but the 3rd time’s the charm right? Once again we’ve got friends who are fans of both these teams so I’ll keep it simple and say if New England takes care of the ball this one we don’t stress. Drake Maye has officially arrived as a guy and when all is said and done if he can outduel Josh Allen he should beat the Rattler. So let’s hop on the duck boat and bet the good times keep rolling for the Foxboro faithful.

Patriots -3.5 (-105)

Week 5 is here people and okay, look. I know there have been a lot of rumors flying around about Bick’s Picks this year. How there is no money, and how they’re never on time, and how the jokes are really bad, but WHAT THE HELL EVERYBODY!? I mean, God. Bick’s Picks are about the best, in every, one of us. Can’t you see that? I mean, okay, we can do better and today we plan to but before we do that we gotta own our losses from last week. First off Washington didn’t come through for the Dawg as the defense allowed a career day to that noodle arm Penix. Then the Bills played with their food and failed to cover the team total for our first loss for the Lock. However not all was lost as the Chiefs took the Ravens to the woodshed on their way to covering the Over for us. As for Brady’s Parlay of the Day it was unfortunately a leg short as it died when the Cheese tied. In the end it was largely a September to forget but that’s okay it’s a long season and there’s plenty of football left so let’s get into it.

Life’s Too Short to Bet the Under

Texans @ Ravens (40.5)

I’m not sure there’s a total today that better embodies the spirit of Life’s Too Short to Bet the Under than this game. A matchup of 1-3 disappointments with their season’s on the brink and one team is even rolling out enough backups it’ll feel like a preseason game. Does that deter us? Never. All I see is a low total ripe for the taking. Add that with the fun that so far this season the Texans are the only team who’s Under has hit in every game vs the Ravens who are the only team to have every Over hit. What’s the opposite of an immovable object and an unstoppable force? Cliches and digs at these teams aside, something has to give and I’m willing to bet on the side of points and touchdowns because life’s too short to do otherwise.

Over 40.5 (-110)

Fade Dawgs

Broncos (+4.5) @ Eagles

It quite literally took every fiber of my being to not bet Washington as the Dawg especially with Jayden back but I’ve heard your little comments. This isn’t a blog about my team after all it’s a blog about winning bets. So now that I’ve done my obligatory burgundy and gold mention let’s get onto the actual pick and oops my bias is still showing. But if that surprises you then you must be new here. As you should know by now arbitrary biases are a foundational pillar of Bick’s Picks so of course we’re gonna pick against Philly. Not to mention Brady’s Parlay has been using that Eagles ML more than I’d like to see so I gotta balance it out with good old-fashioned hate. My hatred of all things Birds aside this is also a spot I really like for the Broncos. That defense is one of the best in the league and should make things frustrating for a Jalen Hurts offense that hasn’t really clicked yet. Meanwhile, although the Bo Nix experience is a little bit of a roller coaster he’s proven he can lead an offense as long as he can limit the turnovers. So far both of these teams have been playing close games, many of which coming down to the wire so why not another finish decided by a field goal?

Broncos +4.5 (-118)

Brady’s Parlay of the Day

The Parlay: Texans -1.5, Lions -10.5, Patriots +8.5

Two struggling teams meet in Baltimore today. Houston got their first win last week against the worst team in the NFL so it’s hard to know if they have actually turned a corner or not. The Ravens come into this game after a bad loss to a not so great Chiefs team and find themselves at 1-3 now without their franchise QB Lamar Jackson in this one. Both teams need this game to try and save their season. I like the Texans with the spread in this one. Lions and Tigers oh my! This is going to be a bloodbath. I think it’s a steal that we only have to give 10.5 points in this game. The Lions offense is firing on all cylinders and the Bengals have looked really bad last week with Browning. Detroit should blow this Burrowless Bengals team out by a lot. Take the Lions with the spread. The final leg of the parlay will wrap up with Sunday night football. No one is giving the Pats a puncher’s chance in this game but I feel like they will be more competitive in this game than you think. I’m not saying they will knock off the undefeated Bills but I do think they will hang around enough to be in the game until the end. Take the Patriots +8.5.

Brady’s Parlay of the Day: Texans -1.5, Lions -10.5, Patriots +8.5 (+557)

Bick’s Stone Cold Lock of the Century of the Week

Buccaneers @ Seahawks (-3.5)

Alright maybe I got a bit too cute with Team Total bet last week but sometimes you gotta take risks and I still maintain that it should’ve hit. I mean how do you not score in the 2nd Quarter against the Saints Josh??? But I digress because we’re not here to sweat losses, we’re here to pick a Lock. That said, the Lock is supposed to be the pick I feel most confident about and I’ll admit this small 1st bye week slate put me to the test. Honestly the slate is full of stinkers which led me here. This sneaky might be the matchup of the day between two 3-1 NFC contenders and hopefully a good game. However in the end I gotta give the edge to the healthier home team. Seattle does have some injuries but I’ll be honest is a small miracle Tampa has been able to get out to the start they’ve had with all the injuries they’ve sustained. So far Baker has been able to put the team on his back but even he’s dealing some bumps and bruises. So I hope Mayfeild doesn’t take it personally but I think the 12th Man leaves Lumen Field happy today.

Seahawks (-3.5)

Week 4 is here people and I hope you all enjoyed a Guinness while watching NFL Europe this morning. I’m sure some of you are wondering why there’s no cheeky Irish themed pick this morning but as I told a few of you this is an American blog and we don’t concern ourselves with those Sunday morning shenanigans. Don’t you fret though there’s plenty of other games to choose from today and maybe just maybe started to right the ship here at Bick’s Picks. Back to back 2-1 weeks has us climbing out of the hole we dug ourselves Week 1. First we had the Vikings cover the Over all by themselves and Washington took care of business for the Lock again. Unfortunately as mentioned earlier it was not a perfect week as the Patriots quite literally fumbled that opportunity away. However you know who didn’t fumble the bag our resident parlay expert Matthew Brady! Sure he might’ve needed a couple miraculous blocked field goals to pull it out but that winning slip doesn’t care how pretty the W is. That said I wouldn’t mind some easy wins today and I think this slate can deliver, so let’s get into it.

Life’s Too Short to Bet the Under

Ravens @ Chiefs (48.5)

Let’s get the obvious out of the way and say that barring a tie it’s pretty crazy that one of these teams is going to 1-3. Both have been the cream of the crop in the AFC but right now neither team can get out of their own way. Whether it’s 4th quarter fumbles or injury their own players it’s largely been a September to forget. However we’re not picking one of these teams to win we’re betting that they’ll score. Baltimore is a familiar face for the Over so it wasn’t stretch to include them and loyal readers know I love to hype up an underdog Mahomes. This is a game both of these Super Bowl hopefuls desperately need get back on track so I’d expect both teams to pull out all the stops and we get our 7 TDs with ease.

Over 48.5 (-120)

Fade Dawgs

Commanders (ML) @ Falcons

I mean as soon as I saw that line had moved to Washington being a Dawg this was going to be the play. I’m not gonna ignore that the Commanders have several injuries that’s an obvious concern and why the line is what it is. However I think this team proved they can win when the next man up is called and Atlanta proved that they’re a team capable of being shutout. Plus how can I resist another Marcus Mariota revenge game? AND this is Dan Quinn’s return to Atlanta, the stars are aligning for another Commanders W. As for the Falcons maybe it’s my righty bias but I’m a big Penix detractor. Something about his throwing motion looks so awkward it makes me feel like every throw could be picked. Honestly if Bijan can be contained this is a bet I think we win with ease. Now there is +2.5 you guys can take but we only bet Washington wins here so let’s #RaiseHail again.

Commanders ML (+120)

Brady’s Parlay of the Day

The Parlay: Eagles ML, Rams ML, Packers -7

In a matchup of two undefeated teams we have the Eagles and The Bucs. The Bucs have dominated this series lately including two postseason wins in the past few years, however the injury depleted Bucs lost another big piece with Mike Evans going down last week against the Jets. I think the injuries are too much to beat the Eagles this week even if Chris Godwin is able to make his season debut. Take the Eagles moneyline in this one. Leg number 2 showcase another undefeated team with the 3-0 Colts going on the road to take on the 2-1 Rams. I think the Colts have been overachieving a tad so far this year and this will be their first real test to prove if they are for real and Daniel Jones just needed to get out of the dumpster fire that is the Giants organization. I like the Rams to bring Jones and the Colts back to reality in this one and I’m taking them with the moneyline. Jesse if you’re reading this I hope this helps you forgive me for picking against them last week! The final leg of the day is the Packers and Cowboys on Sunday night football! Micah Parsons returns to Dallas and will look to help the Packers take down his old squad. The Packers need a big rebound after they got embarrassed losing to the lowly Browns last week. Look for a very motivated Green Bay team to take it to the Cowboys this week and beat them by more than a touchdown. Take the Cheese at -7. 

Brady’s Parlay of the Day: Eagles ML, Rams ML, Packers -7 (+357)

Bick’s Stone Cold Lock of the Century of the Week

Saints @ Bills (Over 34.5)

These picks are coming out super late so I’m gonna keep this short and sweet. The spread is too gross to do anything so we’re just gonna bet the Bills to score with ease. The Saints are a mess and I struggle to see how they stop anything Buffalo throws at them. Josh Allen and company will wanna put on a show at home so I can see 5 TDs happening heck maybe even a defensive score for good measure. Bills Mafia let’s ride.

Bills Team Total Over -34.5 (+150)