Category: Sports

Sports

NFL Betting Guide: Week 1 Monday

Posted on by Jake Rezendes

We finish up Week 1 with Russell Wilson returning home to Seattle in his first game as a Bronco. The question here is can the Seahawks hang around with the Denver’s new found offensive firepower? Let’s find out.

The Spread: Broncos -6.5

This line has jumped around a lot but currently sits at 6.5. I’m not particularly high on either of these teams so it’s tough for me to gauge where this game is going to go. On one hand, it seems like a surefire lock that Denver will run Seattle out of their own building. On the other, it’s hard to think that with a totally new QB, Head Coach, and offensive system that Denver is going to waltz into the 12th man and dominate. I think a slow start for the Broncos is very much within the cards. If Geno Smith can hang onto the ball and not give Denver any short fields they should be able to stick around in this one. From what I’ve seen 78% of the total bets have come in on the Broncos, but only 58% of the money. This opened up as a 4 point spread and the amount of bettors on the Broncos have pushed the line between 2 and 3 points depending on where you look. I think you have to take Seattle here with the cushion that was given by the amount of people taking the Broncos. This will be a tough one to watch if it gets out of hand, but we’re riding with the 12th man.

The Play: Seahawks +6.5

Over/Under 43.5

This pick in my brain basically comes down to who I’m taking with the spread. If I went with Denver the over probably would have been the move because I’d expect them to put up points. I’m taking Seattle though and for them to keep this within a touchdown they’re going to have to muddy the waters a little bit. They can’t keep up with the Broncos if this becomes a shootout so the only way they stick around and cover this spread is if it’s a low scoring game. I could hedge the spread pick a little and go with the over here, but I’m not a coward and I’m willing to go down with the ship.

The Play: Under 43.5

0
Sports

NFL Betting Guide: Week 1 Sunday

Posted on by Jake Rezendes

Welcome to my NFL Week 1 betting guide. Each week we are going to pick one favorite, one underdog (AKA Charlie Murphy’s Habitual Line Stepper of the Week), one over, one under, and we’ll cap it off with my lock of the week. Week 1 is always tricky for betting and especially so if you’re an idiot like me. So without further ado let’s get into it.

Favorite

Ravens (-7) vs. Jets

I love the dogs this week so finding a favorite I liked was a bit tough. I don’t usually like touchdown or more favorites but, I like this spot a lot for Baltimore. They’re going to be my survivor pool pick this week as well and I think they roll the Jets even on the road. New York will be without Zach Wilson and former Raven Joe Flacco is set to make the start for the Jets. The Jets will be feisty this year but, Week 1 with a backup QB is going to be tough for them especially against a good team. I am high on the Ravens this year and, I think Lamar Jackson and company feel like they have something to prove this year after how last season ended. If Baltimore gets the ground game going and put up points early on I don’t think the Jets have enough fire power with Flacco at QB to make a comeback. I’ll take the Ravens by two touchdowns to cover the spread.

Charlie Murphy’s Habitual Line Stepper of the Week (Underdog)

Steelers (+6.5) vs. Bengals

I said it already but, I’m going to say it again I LOVE the dogs this week. I almost went a number of different ways here but, I’m going to roll with Pittsburgh. The Steelers are slightly undervalued in my opinion. They aren’t a playoff team because of how tough the AFC is but, this is still a team that went to the playoffs last year. The only major change that was made to the roster is at QB and, Big Ben was a shell of himself last year. I don’t think Mitchell Trubisky is going to set the world on fire but, if he can game manage and hold onto the ball the Steelers are going to hang around in a lot of games. Also, Mike Tomlin led teams typically perform well as underdogs against the spread. He is 45-24 ATS as an underdog during his time in Pittsburgh. On the other hand while I do think the Bengals will be good this feels like a bit of a trap and maybe even a letdown spot in Week 1 after their Super Bowl run last season. This spread to me should be more in the 3 point range and I want to take advantage of the Bengals being slightly over valued early in the season. I think the Bengals win a tight one so take the Steelers with the points.

Over

Raiders vs. Chargers (52)

I said months ago I was going to take this over in Week 1 and I’m not backing down from that now. This almost seems too obvious. Both teams did add to their defenses over the offseason but, you can’t deny the offensive firepower in this game. Starting with the Chargers, Justin Herbert is a top 5 MVP candidate and he returns much of his offense that was top 5 in total yards and points per game last season. I don’t expect them to slow down anytime soon either. In fact, I expect them to contend with the Chiefs for the AFC West division title. The Raiders on the other hand only brought in the best WR in the NFL for Derek Carr to throw to. Josh McDaniels also gives Carr a different system and look on offense and I think that’ll yield positive results for the Raiders especially in the passing game. If these teams start fast this feels like a game where we could get upwards of 60 points. Turnovers are the only thing that could throw a wrench in the total. Using the Bills/Rams game as an example, they only scored 41 combined points but Buffalo’s three first half turnovers really slowed the scoring down and kept them away from the over. If these two QBs can take care of the football I don’t see how they don’t hit this over.

Under

Patriots vs. Dolphins (46)

This is purely me not buying in yet on the Dolphins offense until I see something out of them. It’ll be Tua’s first game in a new system with a new head coach and a new number one receiver. Could they go out and score a ton of points and run the Pats out of Miami? Sure but, I don’t see it happening this early in the season. Both teams have sneaky talented defenses and I think the Patriots offensive style will milk a lot of the clock and limit the scoring. 24-21 seems very within reason for a final score and that puts us at 45 for the total. Give me the Pats 21-17 though for the under.

Lock of the Week

Panthers (-1.5) vs. Browns

I’m all in on the Baker Mayfield revenge game this weekend. When healthy I think Baker still can produce and get something out of this Panthers offense that last years slew of QBs weren’t able to. He has plenty of high level weapons in Christian McCaffrey and DJ Moore to get the ball to as well. The Browns completely hung him out to dry last season forcing him to play through injuries and then used him as the scapegoat when they underperformed. He has something to prove in this game and if we get good Baker and, he brings the swag like he had against Kansas back when he was at Oklahoma it’s a lock in my eyes. The Browns without Deshaun Watson are decidedly less threatening and I think the Panthers can take advantage of that and start their season off on the right foot.

0
Sports

NFL Betting Guide: Week 1 Thursday

Posted on by Jake Rezendes

The 2022-23 NFL season is set to kick off with the defending Super Bowl Champion Los Angeles Rams at home against the Buffalo Bills. With that comes my weekly NFL betting guides. Each week I’ll have a post for Thursday and Monday Night Football which will include a play for the spread and the total. For Sunday’s I’ll be doing a post picking one favorite, underdog, over, under, and my lock of the week. We start the season with bang this year as two Super Bowl frontrunners clash in the season opener. This should be a fun one and on top of that a tough game to pick. Lets get started.

The Spread: Bills -2.5

My initial thought here would be to take the home underdog especially in a tight matchup but, I don’t think this game is that simple. It seems as though the experts have all but anointed the Bills as this years Super Bowl champions. Everywhere you look the predictions are the Bills over whoever the NFC has to offer. I’m not ready to buy that just yet but, this is still a very good team. Now, the Rams are as well I just like what the Bills added (and get back) to an already good team. The addition of Von Miller obviously gives the pass rush some pop (have fun paying him $20 million when he’s 39 though) plus, they get Tre White back (although he starts the season on the PUP list) as their number 1 CB. The Rams were able to add Allen Robinson to their receiving corps and Bobby Wagner on defense as well. So both teams seemingly improved but, what does that mean for this game? With Andrew Whitworth retired I think the Bills pass rush led by Miller will be able to disrupt Matthew Stafford enough to force some check down’s and ugly throws. Anything they can do to keep the ball out of Cooper Kupp’s hands the better. Offensively, I like what the Bills can do using Allen as a dual threat mixing in some designed runs. Jalen Ramsey will most likely have his hands full with Stephon Diggs and I think that opens the door for Gabriel Davis and Dawson Knox to feast with Ramsey occupied. The Rams are seeing the higher percentage of bets but, it looks like the majority of the money is on the Bills. If this line jumped up to 3 or 3.5 I’d probably take the Rams. I just don’t think 2.5 gives enough cushion for them to cover in a loss. I think the Bills win outright and the path to cover for the Rams is too difficult with this line. So I’m taking the Bills to spoil the party on Thursday night.

The Play: Bills -2.5

Over/Under: 52

This feels like a trap. Two high powered offenses kicking off the season in a shootout is just what the NFL wants. It’s almost too obvious that the over is a good bet. I just hope that doesn’t mean this total goes way under and everyone including myself ends up looking stupid. It’s tough to see a scenario where both teams don’t let it fly and score somewhere in the high 20’s each. The problem is hard to predict trends in week 1 so I’m just going off feel and how these teams looked last season. What that tells me is you have to go with the over. I’m expecting fireworks for the season opener which means we’ll probably get a 17-10 game knowing my luck. Regardless, you don’t want to be the person taking the under if these two score a ton of points. You have to take the over.

The Play: Over 52

Final Prediction

With my picks of Bills -2.5 and Over 52 I’m going to go with Bills 31 Rams 27.

0
Sports

NFL Win Totals: Part 2 (NFC)

Posted on by Jake Rezendes

Now that we’ve looked at the AFC it’s time to check out the totals for the NFC. I’ll be using the lines from the same Action Network article I pulled the AFC lines from. Same as last time you’ll see the team, the line, and payout for the over and under. Let’s rip.

Dallas Cowboys 10 -110/-110

We’ll kick off the NFC with America’s team. Starting with a really tough one too. Dallas won 12 games last year, but seems like they might take a step back this year. They couldn’t feel like more of a 10 win team if they tried, and that is evidenced by the juice for each bet being exactly the same. I’m really torn here. I have them going 4-2 in division and I think there are 6 wins out there otherwise. I think I’m going to go with the over here and bank on them stealing one of those away games with Washington or Philly.

The Play: Over 10

New York Giants 7 -110/-110

Another really tricky line. I don’t think the Giants are very good, but their schedule lines up nicely for them to get in range for this over. I think they’ll struggle in division, but they play a good amount of weaker opponents. They’ll see Chicago, Jacksonville, Seattle, Houston, and Detroit. The latter 4 they play in a row sandwiched around their Week 9 bye. We could be looking at a scenario where after 10 games the Giants are 5-5 and only need to win 3 out of their last 7 to hit the over. Those games include 2 against Washington and Philly, and one with Dallas, Indy, and, Minnesota. Could there be 3 wins in there? Yes, absolutely. Is this the Giants we are talking about though? Also yes. All it takes is for them to slip up once against an inferior team and it makes the climb to 8 wins a lot more difficult. It’s close, but take the under.

The Play: Under 7

Washington Commanders 8 +100/-120

This division is riddled with difficult lines to predict. Another team that has a weaker schedule, but also a team I think is better than the Giants. Same with Dallas I’m feeling a push again with this line. This is a team that was able to win 7 games last year and seemingly upgraded at QB. If Wentz can round into form a bit I think this could be a 9 win team given their schedule. Best of all, the game that potentially decides whether or not they can get to 9 wins is probably their Week 9 matchup when Kirk Cousins and the Vikings come to Raljon. You like that!?

The Play: Over 8

Philadelphia Eagles 9.5 -150/+125

I didn’t think I’d be ripping 3 overs in this division, but I think I’m going to. Philly just has an unbelievably easy schedule this year and are a better team than Washington. If they can get to 4 wins in division I don’t think they have a problem getting to 10 wins. It’s going to be a tight division race between them and the Cowboys the question is just how far can Jalen Hurts take them?

The Play: Over 9.5

Green Bay Packers 11 -110/-110

Obviously by losing Devante Adams the Packers got worse when it comes to pass catchers. They still have Aaron Rodgers though. I know some would question his motivation at this point in his career, but let’s face the facts when he’s been healthy Green Bay has been a very good regular season team. At worst they go 5-1 in the division this year unless they punt the Week 18 game against Detroit again this year like they did in 2021. I think at worst they push 11. You have to go over here.

The Play: Over 11

Detroit Lions 6.5 -120/+100

Detroit seems like a team that’s on the cusp of being relevant again. I just don’t think this is the year. They’ll probably max out at 6 wins. 5 is probably where they end up. So take the under, but watch out Dan Campbell will have these boys playing scrappy. They might cover a lot of spreads this year even in losses.

The Play: Under 6.5

Chicago Bears 6.5 +150/-190

As an Ohio State ride or die I still love Justin Fields. The issue is the Bears front office has failed to put anything competent around him. They feel like they’re already tanking which sucks because Fields has maybe one more year after this to prove himself before all the assholes in the media start talking about how OSU QBs don’t pan out. I’m hoping his talent shines through, but he isn’t carrying this roster to 7 wins.

The Play: Under 6.5

Minnesota Vikings 9 -125/+105

The Vikings feel like a team destined to finish in the middle of the pack year after year with Kirk Cousins at QB. Could they have a year like 2019 where they end up at 10 wins and win a playoff game? Sure, but I don’t see it happening this year. They have some serious weapons on offense in Jefferson, Thielen, and Cook which obviously helps. I’m just not a believer that Cousins can be the guy for a high level team. 9 wins is their ceiling for me and I think 8 is realistic so take the under here especially at +105.

The Play: Under 9

New Orleans Saints 8.5 -105/-115

I really like this line for the Saints. They were able to win 9 games last year and Jameis was injured during the 7th game of the season. Now they do have a new coach, but I don’t see how the roster got worse. On top of that they’ll have a competent QB for a full season. If they can continue to play Tampa well in the regular season and get a split there they should be in good position to get to 9 wins.

The Play: Over 8.5

Carolina Panthers 6.5 -110/-110

This is going to be a close call. Looking at the way their schedule lines up I think they’ll either win 6 or 7 games. The trade for Baker Mayfield gives them a little more at QB than what they would’ve had with Sam Darnold. I don’t love most of their roster though and I think they’ll struggle in division with the Saints and Bucs. Have to go under here.

The Play: Under 6.5

Atlanta Falcons 5 +130/-150

The Falcons are a team with some fun young pieces on offense, but are not equipped to win now. Marcus Mariota is best served in that change-of-pace role he played in Las Vegas at this point in his career. He isn’t a starter anymore. To be honest I wouldn’t be surprised to see Desmond Ridder start a game or two this year so the Falcons can see what they have in him. At best I think Atlanta can get to 5 wins so go under on this one.

The Play: Under 5

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 11.5 +110/-130

Tampa Bay is still a very good team and clear favorites to win the division this year. Could they do that by winning only 11 games though? Absolutely. The Bucs are banged up right now and Tom Brady also took time away from the team during preseason for personal reasons. While I don’t think that will effect Brady’s performance, I do think the injury situation piling up might come into play against a good team early in the season. This will be close, but I think the under is the smart move.

The Play: Under 11.5

Arizona Cardinals 8.5 -105/-115

This line dropped from 9 down to 8.5 which makes it a little tougher. I think if it stayed at 9 it would be a no brainer to take the under having the push at 9 to bail you out. Looking at the schedule they figure to finish between 8-10 wins, 10 being if everything goes perfectly. At the end of the day I think the Cards are competitive, but fall just short of hitting the over.

The Play: Under 8.5

Seattle Seahawks 5.5 -140/+120

Never did I think I’d consider a win total over with a team starting Geno Smith at QB, but I think I am here. Look, this isn’t a good team and they won’t be in playoff contention, but they are well coached. They also have enough games against bad teams to get to 6 wins. They see the Falcons, Lions, Giants, Panthers, and Jets. They could very easily win all of those games. Will they? Probably not, but this isn’t an 0-17 team we’re looking at here. I have no doubt they’ll also play spoiler and steal a division game they have no business winning as well. I think you have to go with the over. If they can win 3 of the aforementioned games against lesser teams and take 2 divisional matchups that leaves them 1 win away from the over. Any Given Sunday who knows what can happen.

The Play: Over 5.5

San Francisco 49ers 10 +100/-120

This basically comes down to how much you believe in Trey Lance. I’m not sure I’m ready to buy in on him 100% yet. I could be totally wrong about this, but I just have to see something first before I can trust a guy to win 11 games in a tough division. Shanahan will no doubt have a great scheme to highlight what Lance does best, and he has great weapons around him. 11 is just a little to high of a number for me. I think they’re ceiling is pushing this at 10 wins.

The Play: Under 10

Los Angeles Rams 10.5 +105/-125

We’ll finish off part 2 with the defending Super Bowl Champs. The Rams just continue to add to their roster with no regard for draft picks or the salary cap. I think at this point the cap doesn’t even exist for them. They have some tough games on the schedule, but they’re still very good. 11 wins seems to be well within reach for them and I think they get there. I love the Allen Robinson addition and Bobby Wagner will provide veteran leadership to their defense. Look for the Rams to win the West with 11 wins.

The Play: Over 10.5

So there you have it, win total predictions for all 32 teams. The NFC isn’t as loaded as the AFC and that showed in the amount of overs picked for each conference. If you remember the in the AFC we took 10 overs and here we only took 7. Which means we went under 9 times in the NFC. Overall that’s 17 overs and 15 unders for the entirety of the league. Keep an eye out for more NFL betting blogs coming soon.

0
Sports

NFL Win Totals (Part 1: AFC)

Posted on by Jake Rezendes

Since we’ve already looked at futures for every division now it’s time to pick totals for every team. We’ll start here with the AFC. These lines come from from DraftKings via an Action Network article, which was updated about a week ago (Shmurda). With each team you’ll see the line and the payout for the over and then the under. Let’s dive in.

Buffalo Bills 11.5 -140/+120

The Bills project to be one of, if not, the best team in the AFC this season. I think what it comes down to when looking at their schedule is how do they perform within their own division? You have to think Miami and New England will pose at least a minor threat (shout out Ian MacKaye). They are a good team though and I think they’ll be able to snag a few wins against their tougher opponents like the Rams, Ravens, Chiefs, Packers, and Bengals. I think as long as they don’t get swept by a division opponent they’re in a great spot to win 12 games. Take the over here.

The Play: Over 11.5

New York Jets 5.5 -175/+145

People love the Jets over this year for some reason, but I’m not buying it. If you just look at the juice for the over being all the way up at -175 that tells me the total is probably going to go up to 6 at some point. I like that even more, but with the return for the under at +145 this one is a no brainer for me. The Jets schedule is not an easy one, and they play in a division with three teams that were over .500 last year. I’m not buying the Jets until they prove me wrong.

The Play: Under 5.5

Miami Dolphins 9 +105/-125

This is a tough one. I don’t necessarily believe in Miami as a playoff team, but that’s not to say with a 17 game season that they could go out and win 9 or 10 games and push or hit the over while still missing the playoffs. It’s the same as I said before with the Jets, they have to prove me wrong and most of that comes down to Tua. I’m still not on the Tua is good bandwagon (sorry TuAnon), and Miami has a tough end to their schedule. I’ll just say it too, I’m also a hater because I’m a Patriots fan. So with that being said, you’re going to have to ride out a potential mid season winning streak when the schedule gets softer for them, but the under is the move here.

The Play: Under 9

New England Patriots 8.5 -125/+105

8.5? That’s just disrespectful, or it’s free money depending on what way you look at it. I’m obviously a homer, but you’re talking about a team that won 10 games last year that returns a second year QB poised for a breakout season. Just checking the schedule there’s 9 wins in there no doubt. Like I said about not buying teams or players until they prove me wrong I’m not betting against Bill Belichick with a competent QB until he proves me wrong. Bet the farm (responsibly) on the over.

The Play: Over 8.5

Baltimore Ravens 9.5 -160/+130

While I am not a fan of the Ravens typically, I do think they are in for a big regular season. Could they choke in the playoffs? Honestly, yeah that’s probably the most likely outcome, but the Lamar Jackson led Ravens have put together some impressive regular seasons recently. This is a team that was 8-3 last season, and in first place in the AFC before Lamar’s injury. They then proceeded to lose their next 6 games missing the playoffs. I like what they did in the first round of the draft this year too. If you look at the juice being -160 for the over I’d imagine the total goes up to 10 at some point and I still think the over is the move. I can envision a scenario where Baltimore wins up to 13 games if they stay healthy. Now, I think they’ll land somewhere around 11, but at this number the over is the right move.

The Play: Over 9.5

Pittsburgh Steelers 7 -125/+105

I think this is another case of “until he proves me wrong.” You’ve heard it before but Mike Tomlin has yet to have a losing season as Steelers Head Coach. He was even able to squeeze 8 wins out of Mason Rudolph and Duck Hodges (remember him?) in 2019. I also think we might see Kenny Pickett at some point this season if Mitch Trubisky struggles, which could get interesting for this win total. On paper the Steelers pretty safely have 6 wins on their schedule, and I trust Tomlin to coach them up for two more. I can definitely see them playing spoiler for a divisional opponent as well. I think you have to ride with Tomlin here and take the over.

The Play: Over 7

Cleveland Browns 8.5 -110/-110

This line has come down an entire game with the news of Deshaun Watson’s suspension being moved up to 11 games. I think Cleveland, with consistent QB play, has the roster to not just make it to, but compete in the playoffs this year. The problem is I don’t think 11 games of Jacoby Brissett gets them there. The first 6 games that Watson was slated to miss were generally favorable for Cleveland who probably could win 3 or 4 of those games. The big issue now is the 5 additional games he will miss are against the Ravens, Bengals, Dolphins, Bills, and Bucs. They’d be lucky to win 2 games in that stretch. Even with the line coming down I just have a hard time thinking they can get to 9 wins at this point.

The Play: Under 8.5

Cincinnati Bengals 10 +100/-120

Up next the defending AFC champs return much of the same roster while also adding to the offensive line which was an issue for them last season. I think I like the over here at a 1:1 payout. The Super Bowl hangover is definitely a real thing, but I still think this is a good team. They have a pretty favorable schedule through their first 10 games. If they can find a way to win 7 or 8 of those then they only need to find 3 or 4 more wins in their last 7 to hit the over. The problem is they finish with Tennessee, Kansas City, Cleveland (with Watson), Tampa Bay, New England, Buffalo, and Baltimore. Still though they’ll most likely be favored against Cleveland for sure and potentially Tennessee and New England even on the road. I know the run they went on in the playoffs last year isn’t sustainable, but I don’t think 11 wins is that outside the box for this team.

The Play: Over 10

Tennessee Titans 9 -105/-115

The line here feels like a push so bad, but unfortunately I have to make a call one way or another. I feel like there may be a little regression this season from the Titans though. They’ve had back to back very good regular seasons, but are 0-2 in the playoffs during that time. I do like Mike Vrabel as a head coach which makes it hard for me to think they’d have less than 9 wins. They also have what seemingly should be 4 free wins against the Texans and the Jaguars. There’s basically one game on the schedule that will most likely decide whether or not they get to 10 wins. I am going off the assumption that they split with the Colts, they go 1-1 against the Raiders and Broncos, and also go 1-1 against the Eagles and Chargers. That leaves the week 17 game against Dallas as the outlier. I am going to take the over here purely because if I think they can get to 9 wins then they just have to pull out one more win, potentially against the Cowboys, in order to hit the over. Crazy how I can talk myself into a pick mid paragraph.

The Play: Over 9

Houston Texans 4.5 +100/-120

Another year in Houston with a place holder Head Coach and QB. I get the approach of seeing what they have in Davis Mills, but his ceiling can only be so high right? Maybe he develops into a deserving starter, but if he does I don’t think he’d ever be in the top half of starting QBs. The Texans seem to be in line for another down year. I can see them maybe getting to 4 wins, but I just don’t see them hitting this over.

The Play: Under 4.5

Jacksonville Jaguars 6.5 +110/-130

That extra half game in the line makes this one a bit easier for me. I feel like the number here seems to be taking into account an improvement from Trevor Lawrence in his second year along with some nice additions to the roster (Scherff, Kirk, Walker, and Etienne also makes his debut). The biggest thing for them though was to get Urban Meyer out of town. Still, I don’t think this will be an incredibly competitive team and I think 6 wins would be a step in the right direction for them. The Under is the play here I think they’ll be around 5 wins.

The Play: Under 6.5

Indianapolis Colts 10 -105/-115

I am cautiously optimistic for the Colts with Matt Ryan under center this season. I think with him acting as a game manager type QB it will be better for them than the unpredictability that Carson Wentz brought to the table last year. Same as the Titans, Indy has what should be 4 free wins against the Jags and Texans. Their schedule lines up pretty favorably otherwise. I think they are the team to beat in the South so 11 wins is probably what they’ll need to hit to win the division and squeak by the Titans.

The Play: Over 10

Kansas City Chiefs 10.5 -115/-105

Another favorite to win the entire conference and even the Super Bowl. The Chiefs come into the season for the first time in a few years without adding a heap of talent. Obviously they still have Patrick Mahomes, and that makes them a heavy threat to win double digit games year after year regardless of who’s on the roster. While he did lose one of his favorite targets in Tyreek Hill, JuJu Smith-Schuster was added to the WR corps. I think JuJu will have a resurgent year with Mahomes throwing him the ball. Outside of division games I see a pretty clear 8 wins on the schedule meaning all they would have to do is split the division matchups to get to 11 wins. I think that is more than doable for this team. 11 or 12 wins should be what they finish with.

The Play: Over 10.5

Las Vegas Raiders 8.5 -130/+110

A playoff team last season the Raiders added the best WR in the NFL this offseason to squad seemingly ready to breakout. The problem is they play in the toughest division in the league. If things go according to plan, all four teams will most likely be above .500. The Raiders schedule is not forgiving, but I do see a path for them to win 6 or 7 of their non division games. This just means to hit the over they have to go 3-3 or even 2-4 in division. I think that is more likely than not and, they may even be able to backdoor their way into the playoffs.

They Play: Over 8.5

Denver Broncos 10 -120/+100

I’m 50/50 on this line for the Broncos. On one hand, I’m not totally buying them yet with a new coach and QB combo at least in year one. On the other, they do have a good roster and Russ still has some tread left on his tires. On top of that their schedule is a bit more lenient than the rest of the division because they’ll play the Jets and Panthers for finishing last in the division last year. They will have to matchup with the Ravens because of this too, but those other two games should be easy wins. I keep coming back to 10 wins for them, but I’m not seeing them getting to 11 playing in the West. So I’ll roll the dice and hope they slip up against a bad team. I also like the payout for the under at +100.

The Play: Under 10

Los Angeles Chargers 10 -140/+120

People are high on the Chargers this year and rightfully so. Justin Herbert has only continued to improve and they added JC Jackson and Kahlil Mack to bolster their defense. I truly believe they will be right there competing with KC for the division this year. In fact, they were my best value bet for the AFC West in a previous post. I don’t think 12 wins is out of the question for them this season. The division probably comes down to how they fare head to head against the Chiefs.

The Play: Over 10

The AFC projects to be a very tough conference this year and that is reflected in my picks here. I went with the over 10 times and the under only 6. There were a few close calls obviously, and I think some teams like the Titans might wind up right on their line which will even it out a little bit. Stay tuned for part 2 where we’ll look at the NFC totals.

0
Sports

Betting Guide: NFL Team Futures (Part 2: NFC)

Posted on by Jake Rezendes

Welcome back to Part 2 of my NFL Team Futures blog. Like the last blog, we are going to look at each NFC division and give the best pick to win each division based on value and how realistic their chances at actually winning are. Like I said in the last post this isn’t a prediction blog. This is an advice blog on where you’ll get the best bang for your buck betting division futures. Let’s get into it.

NFC East

The Odds: Cowboys +125, Eagles +165, Commanders +500, Giants +750

Starting off we have what has been probably the most volatile division in the NFL in my lifetime. Out of all 8 divisions this one is always the hardest to pick, so whatever I end up going with is probably wrong. Since the Eagles won four straight division titles from 2001-04, no team has been able to repeat as division champs. That doesn’t bode well for the defending champion Cowboys, who also happen to be the favorites to win the East this year. Another division that feels like a two team race, but you never know when it comes to the NFC Beast. I will say the Giants are going to be out for me here, they seem like they’re headed for another 6/7 win season. I do like the Commanders roster, but what I don’t like is Carson Wentz. This seems like his last chance to prove himself, and if he can’t get it done with Terry McLaurin, Curtis Samuel, and rookie Jahan Dotson to throw to it might be curtains for the duck hunter. So, because of who’s throwing the ball in Washington this one comes down to the Cowboys and Eagles. With pretty similar odds between the two teams this will be another case where value won’t come into play. Everyone seems to be high on the Eagles this year, but this is another case of a good roster with a QB that may be holding them back. Dallas was great during the regular season last year before losing in the Wild Card round to the 49ers. This one is tough for me, I like what the Eagles were able to do in the offseason, but they still finished 3 games behind the Cowboys last year. On the other hand, I don’t think the Cowboys necessarily got worse either so I am riding with Dallas here.

The Play: Cowboys +125

NFC North

The Odds: Packers -175, Vikings +225, Lions +1000, Bears +1400

I’ll be quick with this one. The Lions and the Bears stink, and even though I love Dan Campbell and Justin Fields they’re out. As long as they have Kirk Cousins at QB, Minnesota is going to be a middling .500 team that every few years gets in the 10 win range and sneaks in the Wild Card. The Packers regressed basically just by trading Devante Adams, but I do like their pick of Christian Watson in the second round of the draft after rounding out the defense in the first round. Aaron Rodgers has won the last two MVPs, and while I think someone else wins it this year I don’t think his production will fall off much. Green Bay’s -175 line gives just enough value if you want to pay up a bit for a future while assuming minimal risk. I think the Packers win at least 11 games this season and I don’t see how the Vikings can match that. Set aside a few extra bucks, take the Packers in the North, and sit back and relax.

The Play: Packers -175

NFC South

The Odds: Buccaneers -290, Saints +335, Panthers +1100, Falcons +2200

Another two team race here and very similar to the situation we had with the AFC East. The Panthers and the Falcons won’t be contending for the division this season. What makes this difficult is much like the Bills, there isn’t a ton of value in taking the Bucs here. So that begs the question, do the Saints have any chance at making this a close race? A full season of Jameis Winston is a good start. Last season they were 5-2 in games started by Winston, but finished 9-8 after his ACL injury. They still have a good roster adding Tyrann Mathieu in free agency as well to bolster the defense. I also love what they did in the first round of the draft taking Chris Olave (WR) and Trevor Penning (OT). The Bucs on the other hand retain Tom Brady after a brief retirement, which is all you really need to know about them. They’ll be a 11/12 win team most likely and they probably win this division, but if a couple things go wrong and they Saints hang around they might be able to steal it. Not to mention the Saints are 4-0 against the Bucs with Tom Brady in the regular season. If they can even split the season series it’ll go a long way. At the end of the day I can’t justify taking the Bucs at -290 it just isn’t worth it to me so I’ll roll with Jameis here.

The Play: Saints +335

NFC West

The Odds: Rams +135, 49ers +215, Cardinals +275, Seahawks +900

Seemingly a tough call with three playoff teams from last year, but I actually don’t think this is that hard to pick and I’ll tell you why. The Seahawks aren’t going anywhere with Geno Smith or Drew Lock, so they’re out. The Cardinals are a good team, but until they prove they can play good football past Halloween I’m not buying them to win the division. Can they make the playoffs? Yes 100%, but if they continue fading down the stretch they aren’t winning the division. The 49ers are a team I have vehemently backed in the last few years, but this might be the year I take a break. Another great team, but they are rolling the dice with Trey Lance at QB and who knows what that looks like. That leaves us with the defending Super Bowl Champions. They are a team set up to make another deep playoff run, and I think that starts with them winning the NFC West. When you look at the odds you still get a positive return on the Rams and the payout for the Niners and Cardinals isn’t lucrative enough for me to not take the defending champs here.

The Play: Rams +135

Stay tuned for more NFL betting blogs.

1
Sports

Betting Guide: NFL Team Futures (Part 1: AFC)

Posted on by Jake Rezendes

This will serve as the first installment of many NFL betting advice blogs. During the season you can expect weekly posts for betting advice on Thursday Night Football, best bets for the Sunday slate, and Monday Night Football. Here we are going to look at each division (Starting with the AFC) and pick the best bet to win each division based on value and how realistic their chances are at winning said division. Now let me specify, this isn’t a prediction blog. This is an advice blog on where you’ll get the best bang for your buck betting division futures. We’re going to take some risks here so let’s dive in.

AFC East

The Odds: Bills -240, Dolphins +375, Patriots +600, Jets +2000

We’ll start with a tough one. You’ll really have to pay up to get a good return out of taking the Bills here, but it’s tough to see a scenario in which they don’t win the division. The AFC runner-ups from two seasons ago were an OT coinflip away from a very real shot at playing in the Super Bowl last season. While they lost offensive coordinator Brian Daboll, they’ve retained much of the roster that won 11 games last season. You have to think they’ll finish somewhere in that range again this season. When you look at the Dolphins they have a talented roster, but it all comes down to one question: Do you trust Tua? He might prove me wrong, but as of now I’m not a believer so the Dolphins are out for me here. The Jets will probably improve on last season, but they aren’t winning the division. That leaves the Patriots at +600 as our challenger to the Bills. Hand up here I am a die hard Patriots fan. I think Mac Jones takes a big step next season, and the Pats continue to build on what was a solid 2021 campaign under the rookie QB. Is this going to be enough to unseat the Bills though? Even I know it’s going to be tough for the Patriots, but I do love that value. I’m addicted to the plus sign though, so I’m going to cop out here and say if you’re comfortable paying up for a future take the Bills, but for purposes of the blog I’m being a homer and taking the Patriots for the value.

The Play: Patriots +600

AFC North

The Odds: Ravens +130, Bengals, +175, Browns, +425, Steelers +800

For me this division is a two team race. Right off the bat the Steelers will be playing with either Mitchell Trubisky or rookie Kenny Pickett at QB. They’re not winning the division this year, but I’m sure Mike Tomlin will find some way to squeeze 9 wins out of them because that’s just what he does. The Browns should be a good team, but at the end of the day it is the Browns. At this point with a suspension for Deshaun Watson looming the Browns have to be out. That leaves the Ravens and the Bengals. Cincinnati won the division last year and made an impressive run to the Super Bowl. The AFC champs made improvements along their offensive line which was a glaring need for them last season. The Ravens on the other hand were able to grab the highest graded players at their positions in Kyle Hamilton (Saftey) and Tyler Linderbaum (Center) in the first round of the draft. What I keep coming back to is the fact that the Ravens were sitting as the number one seed in AFC prior to Lamar’s injury. After that they lost six straight opening the door for the Bengals to win the division. The difference between the two teams odds is negligible, so this is a little different than picking the East. Basically, I’m picking who I think actually will win the division and I can’t help but think if Lamar is healthy for the whole season that there’s no reason the Ravens won’t take this division. The Bengals won’t make it easy, but I have to go with Baltimore here.

The Play: Ravens +130

AFC South

The Odds: Colts -140, Titans +165, Jaguars +850, Texans +2200

Right off the bat, I’m going to do the obvious and just eliminate the Jaguars and the Texans. This is as clear as a two team race as you can get between the Colts and the Titans. Last year, the Colts surged after an 0-3 start sitting at 9-6 after a win over the Cardinals on Christmas Day. Seemingly poised to make the playoffs, they dropped their final two contests including Week 18 at Jacksonville. Now, a lot of the faults this team had last year can be attributed to the erratic play of Carson Wentz. This offseason the Colts continued their revolving door of veteran QBs by bringing in Matt Ryan. I think Ryan will be an upgrade for the Colts, and the roster they have will support him well. The Titans on the other hand, return much of the roster that won the division and held the 1 seed in the AFC playoffs last season. I think the biggest question that surrounds them this year is what does Ryan Tannehill look like? He’s been good since arriving in Tennessee, but saw a dip in production last year including less yards and TD’s in a 17 game season as well as throwing 14 INT’s. When deciding who to take in this division you more or less have to pick who you think is going to win and roll with it. The Colts -140 line isn’t going to deter me if I really think they can win the division. So with that being said, I think because the Colts upgraded at QB and I foresee some regression for Tannehill. I’d pay up a bit and take the Colts here even as the favorite. The Titans at +165 isn’t a strong enough return for me to risk taking them here when I feel good about the Colts.

The Play: Colts -140

AFC West

The Odds: Chiefs +170, Chargers +225, Broncos +260, Raiders +575

Now let’s finish the AFC with probably the toughest division to pick in the NFL. Two playoff teams from last year (Chiefs and Raiders), a team that should’ve gotten in if they didn’t get greedy in Week 18 and played for a tie (Chargers), and a 7 win team with a great defense that added a future HOF QB (Broncos). The Chiefs are still the favorite here, but for the first time in the Patrick Mahomes era this team may have actually regressed talent-wise this offseason. Losing Tyreek Hill will undoubtedly be tough, but you still have to assume Mahomes will make it work with his current WR corps plus he still has Travis Kelce. The Chargers made some serious upgrades to their defense adding Kahlil Mack and JC Jackson this offseason. I am cautiously high on the Chargers this year. I imagine Justin Herbert only continues to improve and we already know they can score, but the additions to the defense make them tempting. The Broncos I’m not as high on though. While I wouldn’t be shocked if they did put it together, I think they have to prove it first and show they can challenge the Chiefs for the top spot. That leaves the Raiders, a team I think will have a good season, but I just can’t see taking them over one of the top two teams. What I do like is the Raiders at +170 to make the playoffs they feel like a team that can sneak in like they did last year. That leaves the Chiefs and the Chargers. Something keeps telling me that there will be slight regression from the Chiefs leaving the door open for someone else to steal the West. That doesn’t necessarily mean I think the Chiefs 100% don’t win the division, but it feels like the division will be decided by 1 game. So with that being said, I’ll assume the risk and take the Chargers for the better payout.

The Play: Chargers +225

Stay Tuned for Part 2 where we’ll look at the NFC.

0
Sports

Assessing the Red Sox at the All-Star Break

Posted on by Jake Rezendes

93 games into the season, the Red Sox sit at 48-45 in 4th place in the East and 2 games behind the Blue Jays for the final wild card spot. Not the first half the team or fans had in mind coming into the season. The roster still has the pieces to make a run and adding at the trade deadline can set the team up to make a deep run in the playoffs.

The Good

There hasn’t been much of this lately, but I guess the best place to start is Rafael Devers play throughout the first half. He started at third base and batted third for the AL this week. Devers is hitting .324 with 22 Home Runs and 55 RBI. His OPS is just south of 1.000 at .980 all while leading the AL in hits (Xander is third with 104). At this pace he’ll finish in the top five in MVP voting. He has arrived as a full fledged superstar in this league and he’s only 25. It’s time to pay the man, but I’ll get to that later.

John Schreiber has been a pleasant surprise for a bullpen that has struggled as a unit this year. Outside of a rough mop up inning against the Yankees on Sunday and allowing some inherited runners to score versus the Rays he has been virtually unhittable since coming up. He boasts a 1.60 ERA with a 0.71 WHIP over 33.2 innings. Cora has entrusted him with facing the heart of the opponents order many times thus far. With the exception of Garrett Whitlock I can’t think of anyone I trust more than him in a big spot.

Kutter Crawford and Josh Winckowski have done a great job recently to keep the rotation afloat. Crawford has looked great in the month of July going 5.1 scoreless against the Rays on the fourth, tossing 5 innings of 1 run ball versus the Yankees on 7/9, and throwing 6 scoreless before coming back out for the 7th and allowing 3 runs in a comeback win for Tampa Bay on 7/14. Winckowski hasn’t necessarily set the world on fire, but what he has done in most of his starts is give the team a chance to win. In two of his last three outings (all losses) he’s allowed 2 and 3 earned runs. The problem is the Sox offense let him down in both of those starts only scoring one run in each game. That’s not going to get it done. These two have given the team a real chance to win in most of their starts while the likes of Eovaldi, Sale, and Wacha have been on the IL.

The Bad

Where do I even start? I guess I’ll start with the obvious and that’s ownerships blatant disrespect for the teams best player, Rafael Devers, and de facto captain and All-Star, Xander Bogaerts. Much has been made about the Red Sox using Matt Olson’s contract (8/$168M) to mold Devers deal, and I don’t even have much to say other than that it is absolutely ridiculous. Don’t get me wrong, Olson is a great player, but with Devers we’re talking about a guy who’s going to be a perennial MVP candidate and All-Star. What is the point of drafting and developing guys if as soon as they turn into the stars we all want them to be ownership throws their hands up and cries poor? What happens in a handful of years if Marcelo Mayer has a Devers-like start to his career are we going let him walk too? They already traded Mookie Betts which sucked, but you felt good about where the team was still because of guys like Bogaerts and Devers. Now we’re looking at a potential future without both? No that can’t happen open up the damn checkbook John Henry and as David Ortiz would say “PAY THE MAN.”

The bullpen has been downright terrible all season. I’m not going to carry on about it here, but something needs to change. Whitlock coming back to the pen will help immensely. John Schreiber needs to continue to be lights out. Tanner Houck needs to clean up his act. If you can add an arm at the deadline to go along with these guys that can only help. Maybe Kutter Crawford moves to the bullpen full time when the rotation comes back together. All I know is something needs to change; your move Chaim.

Injuries have plagued this team so far this season, especially the pitching staff. Just when it seemed like everyone was making their way back Story takes a pitch in the hand (thankfully it wasn’t serious), Wacha misses his last two starts before the break because of a tired arm, and of course Chris Sale has one solid outing before taking a comebacker off his pinkie, and breaking it, in his second start. You can’t make up luck that bad. If they can stay healthy in the second half that’ll go a long way.

What’s Next?

The first one is pretty simple. RESIGN DEVERS AND BOGAERTS.

Alright now that I got that off my chest, now what can the Sox do at the deadline? It’s pretty simple they need to add an arm. Whether its a starter, think a non rental like Frankie Montas or Luis Castillo, a bullpen pitcher with some control, like Gregory Soto, or a rental like Daniel Bard (remember him?). The pitching staff isn’t the only part of the team with faults, adding a true first baseman with a good bat is also a massive need. You’ll hear a lot about acquiring guys like Josh Bell and CJ Cron, but I see Bloom rental shopping here, so he doesn’t have to dip into his precious farm system. I’m not really sure where that leaves us maybe go after a guy like Jesus Aguilar or Seth Brown (maybe as part of a Montas package). The point is Bloom needs to make a move. This team is still built to win now and has plenty of chips to bargain with to get something done.

So there you have it an in depth comprehensive state of the Red Sox from an incredibly frustrated fan, can’t you tell?

0
Sports

Pivetta Struggles as Sox Drop Game Two to the Rays

Posted on by Jake Rezendes

After sleepwalking through Monday’s contest the Rays bats woke up tagging Nick Pivetta for 7 earned over 5.2 innings. It all started in the top of the 1st after the first two reached for Tampa a controversial ball four call to Wander Franco loaded the bases which were cleared two batters later by Red Sox killer Kevin Kiermaier. After a Kiermaier baserunning error lead to an inning ending double play the Sox responded in the bottom of the inning on a two run shot to center from Xander Bogaerts.

Pivetta seemed to settle in and cruised through the next four innings. In the bottom half of the 2nd Trevor Story knotted the game at three with his second home run in as many days and it felt as if the Red Sox were back on track. Then in the bottom of the 5th an 0-2 single from Refsnyder followed by a JD Martinez double had the Sox looking at second and third with nobody out an opportunity they would squander as the next three batters were set down.

That proved costly as the Rays were able to push three more across to run Pivetta from the game. Jake Diekman allowed an inherited runner to score to widen the gap to a four run lead. Pivetta finished the day giving up seven earned runs his most of the season.

After Boston was set down 1-2-3 in the bottom of the frame Alex Cora ran out his proverbial white flag in Hansel Robles who gave up another to run which extended Tampa’s lead to 8-3. Allow me to rant here for a bit: why is Hansel Robles still on this roster? Better yet why is he being used in any situation that isn’t a mop up role? Now I imagine when the rotation comes together with the likes of Sale, Eovaldi, Whitlock, and Paxton all on their way he’ll be DFA’d ,but that still doesn’t explain his use in any winnable game. While he did have a solid month of April he’s been basically unusable ever since. Giving up 7 ER in only 6 innings in June alone shows where he is at. Okay enough about Robles and back to this very uneven performance from the Red Sox.

As the rain started to come down at Fenway the Red Sox were able to cut the deficit back to 4 on a Bogaerts sac fly and Tyler Danish was solid for 2 innings to keep the score at 8-4 heading into the 9th. After Duran and Refsnyder singles followed by Martinez and Bogaerts strike outs Christian Vasquez had a pitch hit him in the helmet setting up a bases loaded two out situation for Trevor Story. Unfortunately he was unable to capitalize and popped out to shortstop and the Red Sox fell to 9-17 against the AL East.

A tough loss but one that you’d like to think is an anomaly. I don’t see Pivetta getting shelled like that often ,but the real issue is the missed opportunities from the Red Sox offense lately. Just tonight they had 11 hits but also left 11 on base that can’t happen especially when your pitcher doesn’t have his best stuff. Nothing to do but look forward, shake it off, win the series tomorrow.

Top pitching prospect Brayan Bello makes his major league debut tomorrow against Corey Kluber (3-5).

Final: Rays 8 Red Sox 4 W: Ryan Thompson (2-2) L: Nick Pivetta (8-6)

EDIT* Looks like Chaim Bloom heard me last night. Hansel Robles has been DFA’d to make room for Bello on the MLB roster.

0
Sports

Red Sox Begin Important Stretch with 2 Hit Shutout of Tampa Bay

Posted on by Jake Rezendes

With Michael Wacha scratched for what is being described as “dead arm” the Red Sox sent Austin Davis to the mound as an opener in what turned out to be one of the best collective pitching performances the Sox have had this season. After two scoreless innings from Davis, Cora turned the ball over to Kutter Crawford who was the story of the day. In what was his best outing of the season Crawford threw 5.1 innings yielding only 2 hits and a walk while striking out 8 Rays. Save for a two out throwing error by Crawford to keep the Rays alive in the 3rd, Kutter was nearly untouchable on the day. After Brett Phillips reached on a dropped strike three Crawford gave way to John Schreiber who sat the next five batters down in order for the save.

At the plate Boston was able to push across four runs highlighted by a 4th inning homer into the Sox bullpen from Trevor Story (2-4 HR, RBI) to get scoring started. The offense struck again the next inning after Arroyo doubled and eventually scored on a Devers grounder to second that was misplayed by Paredes. Boston was able to add two more insurance runs in the 8th which was more than enough for Schreiber who has been nails in the late innings for the Sox this season.

All in all a great way to start a very important stretch of 27 games vs teams with winning records. I’d like to see the bats wake up a bit more though. Boston was able to manage 11 hits but squandered some good scoring opportunities including the 2nd when they loaded the bases but were unable to score. They also struggled to score in the final two games in Chicago but, hopefully the 11 hits yesterday were a step in the right direction. They’re definitely going need to heading into a four game series with the Yankees this weekend.

Before we get to the weekend though, Boston will send Nick Pivetta (8-5) to the mound tonight opposite Jeffrey Springs (3-2) in game two of this three game set against the Rays.

Final: Red Sox 4 Rays 0, W: Crawford (2-2) L: Fleming (2-4) S: Schreiber (3)

0