I’m a miserable prick again today. After a 2-0 Thursday I thought I was back. Then I went 0-4-1 yesterday. I’m a dead person again. Yesterday was brutal, I woke up and lost the under in the 9:30 London game so the day was pretty much shit from the get-go. I apologize to anyone that took any advice from this site for Sunday. The Betting Guide and the Antithesis would’ve won you a grand total of $0. You would’ve got your money back on the Bills/Ravens game and that’s it. You don’t get those type of hard hitting braindead takes anywhere else folks. To pile on top of it the Patriots lost a heartbreaker at Lambeau with a third string rookie QB and I had to sit and watch it with smug fucks that picked the Packers in survival pools and bet $250 on their moneyline to win like .43 cents. If you’re keeping score at home, I also found out that my favorite bar is closing and my dog is having neck surgery while I’m typing this. The people want picks though, and the take game doesn’t sleep even if you don’t have anywhere to drink Bud Lights during Monday Night Football anymore. Let’s see if we can hit both of these and get back to .500 for the week.

Rams vs. 49ers (-2) (42.5)

I don’t know how to feel about this game. It seems like Vegas is baiting you into taking the Rams by giving them a couple points like they did Thursday with Miami. The public and the money are on the Rams as well although the money isn’t as much of a runaway. I’ve notoriously backed the 49ers in the past and I think I’m going to continue to do it here. The Rams have looked sloppy offensively and the Niners have a great defense. Offensively, even without Trent Williams they have always found a way to run the ball under Kyle Shanahan. If they can put some points up early and give the defense a lead to play with I think they come away with the win here. As for the total, we’re going with primetime unders again. The San Francisco defense will be able to keep the scoring to a minimum and their offense can win with a couple of touchdowns if that’s the case. Let’s win these bets for the G.A.P, give me the 49ers 20 Rams 13.

The Plays: 49ers -2 and Under 42.5

Welcome to the first installment of “NFL Betting Guide – The Antithesis” . There will be no hard hitting analysis of X’s and O’s. You won’t find profound insight to anything at all. I don’t care how the third string tackle fits into this scheme because he was coached by Bones Weatherly in college. The only thing you’ll get out of this is cold hard CASH.

An Agreement

Jake, of Jake’s Takes, had a rare good pick on the Week 4 NFL betting guide. Choosing a team to ride with all season is like picking a horse you are willing to live or die by. That horse is Trevor Lawrence. Looking at the way these two teams started the season you’d expect both to have inflated value here. This one opened at Philly -7 and that is complete disrespect to the Jags. It’s been bet down to 6.5 and has not come back which tells me I’m on the right side of history in this Doug Pederson revenge game. I’ll take the Jags to win it outright as well after destroying the Colts and Chargers. Jags 23, Eags 20

A Disagreement (Antithesis)

Some people say if you want guaranteed income you should invest in property, or the stock market, or Dogecoin. I don’t know about all that but I do know that if you just fade the lock of the week you’ll have a higher return than any of those options. Simply put, the Bills are in rough shape right now. The Ravens are 15-3-1 ATS as home dogs. A rainy, windy day in Baltimore is also exactly what you need for a low scoring grind it out cover. Give me the Ravens in another upset special.

A Bonus Lock

I’ll leave the reader with a nickel’s worth of free advice about survivor pools. The only advantage you have is to pick against everyone else. You need to find spots that you can put your nuts on the table and this week that looks like the Steelers. They are 3 to 3.5 point favorites against the Jets at Pittsburgh. I love that Zach Wilson is starting for the loser franchise. This one feels like a lock all the way around. Tomlin is itching to see what Kenny Pickett can do and Trubisky hears the footsteps. He’s like a cornered animal and he’s fighting for this life. Expect fireworks from Trubisky; 350 yards and 3 TDs. Steelers win it 34-10.

Welcome to my NFL Week 4 betting guide. Each week we are going to pick one favorite, one underdog (AKA Charlie Murphy’s Habitual Line Stepper of the Week), one over, one under, and we’ll cap it off with a bonus pick that I can’t call my lock of the week anymore because it keeps losing. Last Sunday was rough as my picks went 1-4 so let’s get back on track this week.

Favorite

Lions (-4) vs. Seahawks

The Lions were my only correct pick last Sunday and goddammit I’m riding with them again. They are 3-0 ATS this season, twice as a dog and once as a favorite. They do tend to blow leads late in games, but that is typically as an underdog. If they come out and play like they have the last few weeks against an inferior opponent in Seattle I don’t see how they have any trouble covering four points. The Seahawks had a nice revenge win in Week 1 and since then we’ve seen what they really are which is not a good team. They are clearly in a rebuilding phase while they look for their next franchise QB. The Lions on the other hand have been frisky this year and seem to be building something in Detroit. The Lions will be ready for this game and without the help of the 12th man I don’t think Seattle has any answers. They cruise here.

Charlie Murphy’s Habitual Line Stepper of the Week (Underdog)

Jaguars (+6.5) vs. Eagles

The Eagles have looked like world beaters through three weeks, but the Jaguars have also been impressive. The game is in Philly, but Jacksonville just went out west to LA and ran it up on the Chargers. On paper you’d think this would be a blowout. For some reason though I keep coming back to the thought that the Jags can hang around in this one. If we were talking about a 3-4 point spread I don’t know how good I’d feel about this but a 6.5 point cushion makes me think Jacksonville can cover. Their defense has been good this year and I think Trevor Lawrence has figured it out enough to put some points up. I do think the Eagles still win just not by as much as you’d think. Philly wins by a field goal and Jacksonville covers.

Over

Browns vs. Falcons (47.5)

A terrible Atlanta defense? Potentially no Myles Garrett? Two teams that have scored at least 26 points in every game this season and allowed more than 20 in all but one game? Sign me up for this over. Both teams have hit the over in all their games as well. This is also an attainable number as 7 touchdowns gets us there with some wiggle room for a missed extra point. Atlanta has looked solid on offense through three games and so has Cleveland even with Jacoby Brissett at QB. I think the Browns will be able to put up a ton of points on this Falcons defense and Atlanta will be able to do enough to get us to the total.

Under

Vikings vs. Saints (41.5)

It appears as if Andy Dalton will get the nod at QB for the Saints with Jameis Winston dealing with a back injury. Michael Thomas has also been ruled out for New Orleans. This takes a lot of pop out of the Saints offense that has already struggled at times this year. The game being in London too makes me think we won’t see much offense either. A long travel week, especially changing time zones that drastically, doesn’t bode well for scoring. The Saints defense should also be able to keep the Vikings in check. I think New Orleans hangs around and loses a close game. For them to do that they’re going to need to keep the ball away from Minnesota. If this turns into a shootout New Orleans isn’t going to be able to keep up. I think the Saints run the ball and try to control the clock which will lead to a low scoring game.

The Definitely Not My Lock of the Week Anymore Bonus Pick

Bills (-3) vs. Ravens

I’d like to reiterate here this is not a lock of the week for the time being. You can’t call a pick a lock if it loses 3 weeks in a row. Anyways, I said after two weeks that the Bills were the bet every week until proven otherwise. Well, I didn’t take into account a trip to South Beach in September which is never an easy game for anyone. Last week felt like an anomaly for Buffalo and I think they get back on track this week. I understand being a road favorite against a good team isn’t ideal, but this also isn’t uncharted waters for the Bills this season. They went into LA as 2.5 point favorites in the season opener and won by 21 points. Josh Allen is going to have a field day with this Ravens defense that allowed 26 points to the Patriots last week. On the other side of the ball the Bills have allowed 10, 7, and 21 points in their three games this season. I think If they can get into the high 20s point-wise they should be able to cover here. We circle the wagons in Baltimore this Sunday.

After an absolutely terrible Week 3 I am going to do my best to get back on track here in Week 4. Last week my picks went 1-8-1. That’s humbling especially considering I was over 60% through two weeks. Now I have the unenviable task of trying to handicap this game that I have no strong feeling about either way. I’m sure I’ll talk myself into something while I’m writing so let’s just get started.

The Spread: Bengals (-4)

I don’t even know where to start with this game. Miami has looked great through three weeks and the Bengals started off 0-2 before finding their footing against the Jets last week. Conventional wisdom would tell you to take the Dolphins with the points here. So if that’s the case then why is the spread going in the other direction? It opened at 3.5 and is now at 4. The public is pretty squarely on the Dolphins at around 64%, but the line moving in favor of the Bengals tells me the big bets are going in on Cincinnati. It’s tough to pick against Miami right now the way they are playing, but this could be a big letdown spot for them coming off a huge win over Buffalo. On the other side the Bengals really need this game to get back to .500. I think we fade the public and take the more desperate team in Cincinnati.

The Play: Bengals -4

Over/Under 47

This feels like it is going to be a pretty popular over. It is an attainable number and both these offenses can put up points if needed. That also could’ve been said for a bunch of games this year so far that didn’t hit the over. Last week both of these teams played in games that would’ve hit this under and the Dolphins even played the Bills who’s offense is comparable to the Bengals in terms of firepower. I hate betting trends, but I actually think I like this under. Primetime unders are hitting like crazy right now and only one of the six games these two have played this year have gone over the total. I also think both teams might be a little slow out of the gate on a short week, especially Miami coming off a grind of a game last Sunday. I’m sick of picking unders, but it’s the right move Thursday Night.

The Play: Under 47

Final Prediction

With my earlier prediction of Bengals -4 and Under 47 give me the Bengals 24-17.

Alright, I’m going to do an unconventional Monday post here. To be upfront about it, I’ve gotten absolutely torched in Week 3 so far. Including my Thursday Night plays my picks are 1-6 this week. I also took the Bucs and 49ers on my own and those both lost as well. Shoutout to the Lions for covering +6 and being my only win of the week so far. I’m on tilt big time right now. I feel like Tony Soprano when he wanted to put Carmella’s spec house money on the Jets and she wouldn’t let him. It all started with the Steelers forgetting how to play football in the second half on Thursday. Then we had the Raiders who are currently the worst team in the NFL record-wise lose by 2 when I had them at -2. The Bengals and the Jets refused to score in the second half and hit their over. The Seahawks and Falcons remembered how to play football and hit the over when I had the under. The Bucs couldn’t move the ball and the 49ers couldn’t win a game where Russell Wilson overthrew every receiver he threw a pass to. Then there’s the worst beat of the day and I’ll tell you why. The Chiefs looked terrible and didn’t cover my lock of the week and that’s not even the worst part. They were my survival pool pick in both my pools after I had to buy back in last week because the Bengals lost. Ooh and I forgot, the fucking Patriots lost and Mac Jones is hurt so I have to watch Brian Hoyer get folded at Lambeau next Sunday. So yeah, it’s been quite a week for me and how am I going to try and close the week strong you ask? I’m going to bet on motherfucking Daniel Jones and the Giants. Surely that can’t go wrong right?

Look I don’t have the energy for fancy analytics on this game. Simply put, it’s probably going to suck, but we’re all still going to watch it. I bet against Cooper Rush last week and I’m going to do it again. Both these defenses are competent so I don’t see a lot of points here (take the under) and I just can’t fathom how Cooper Rush does this to me again even if he’s playing a lesser opponent. The Giants have found a way the last two weeks and I think they can do it again without Dak under center on the other side. The bet and money percentages are right around 50% with a slight lean to the Giants as well. I’m hoping the Meadowlands is rocking for the G-Men tonight and we can close the week out with a win, but in all honesty fade me because I’m cold as can be right now. I guess let’s play some football?

The Plays: Giants -1 and Under 39

Welcome to my NFL Week 3 betting guide. Each week we are going to pick one favorite, one underdog (AKA Charlie Murphy’s Habitual Line Stepper of the Week), one over, one under, and we’ll cap it off with my lock of the week. I finished 3-2 again last week let’s see if we can keep the momentum going for another positive week.

Favorite

Raiders (-1.5) vs. Titans

Here we have two teams looking to avoid an 0-3 start. The difference is one has looked significantly better than the other. The Titans we’re abysmal on Monday Night in Buffalo while the Raiders blew a multiple score lead in the second half against the Cardinals. Had the Raiders closed out the victory on Sunday I think this line would’ve moved slightly more in their favor. The Titans though have not done themselves any favors losing to the Giants Week 1 and getting their doors blown off by the Bills in Week 2. Could the latter have been a product of facing a very good team? Yes, of course, but to lose by 34 is a different story. They have not moved the ball well offensively too and that includes Derrick Henry. The Ryan Tannehill era might be coming to an end and I think we keep fading the Titans, especially with the line at less than a field goal, until the bookmakers catch up to them. You have to go Raiders here it’s time they get on track this season.

Charlie Murphy’s Habitual Line Stepper of the Week (Underdog)

Lions (+6) vs. Vikings

This feels like it could be a trap, but if it is I’m going to fall for it. The Lions have looked good the last couple of weeks and the Vikings did not on Monday Night. The Lions have also been cover machines under Dan Campbell as well going 13-6 ATS since the start of last season. This line being at 6 seems a little high based of last week. I think we’re looking at more of a field goal game in this one. The Lions were able to cover against the Eagles something the Vikings were unable to do as well. My only hang up here is 1:00 Kirk Cousins. I correctly predicted that primetime Kirk would shine through on Monday, but I’m hoping that going against him in a game nobody’s watching doesn’t come back to bite me. We all know that’s when Kirk is at his best, but we ride with Man Campbell and the Lions.

Over

Bengals vs. Jets (44.5)

In what could be Joe Flacco’s last hurrah as a starter this season this game figures to be a high scoring affair. I’m curious as to why the total is so low here. The Bengals couldn’t be more due for an offensive explosion and the Jets defense hasn’t necessarily been lockdown through two weeks. The Jets on the other hand have aired it out with Flacco the last two week including scoring 31 in a come from behind victory last week. Six touchdowns and a field goal gets us there and I think that’s more than possible. Let’s see some points.

Under

Falcons vs. Seahawks (42)

I said it last week, but I think Seattle is going to be a big under team this year. The under is 2-0 in Seahawks games so far this year. Their defense is good enough to keep the opposing offense in check, but their offense won’t put up a ton of points of their own. They haven’t scored an offensive touchdown in their last six quarters as well. The Falcons offense could put up some points, but I think the Seahawks will muck the game up enough to keep this low scoring. I’m thinking this finishes as a 17-14 or 20-17 type of game.

Lock of the Week

Chiefs (-5.5) vs. Colts

I don’t think I can call this segment my lock of the week anymore considering it’s 0-2 to start the season so, I might have to start workshopping some new titles for this pick. Anyways, what better way to get back on track with my lock of the week than picking Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs. This seems way too obvious though. The Colts have looked like complete dogshit through two weeks so that means Matt Ryan will probably look like 2016 MVP Matt Ryan because I’m betting against them. I just don’t see how the Chiefs don’t come out and absolutely roll them though. As long as Mahomes stops throwing the ball to the other team (he had 4 INTs last week by my count 2 overturned by penalties and 2 dropped) I think we’ll be alright here. Over 90% of the bets and money is on Kansas City. I’m not overthinking this though, let’s cash the lock of the week for the first time this year.

Week 3 kicks off with an AFC North grudge match between the Steelers and the Browns. Both teams are coming off losses in Week 2 although the Browns loss was a bit more devastating. Which team gets back on track Thursday Night? Let’s find out.

The Spread: Browns -4.5

I think it’s time I get back to my roots. I’ve been leaning heavy on the favorites with the last few picks I’ve made and it’s about time I get back to picking dogs. I think this will be a close game and I like the fact that I get more than a field goal as a cushion taking the Steelers here. The Browns will also be without Jadeveon Clowney and potentially Myles Garrett as well. My only worries picking the Steelers are that they’ve had trouble with the run and the offense hasn’t moved the ball well through two weeks. My first concern worries me a bit more though. Nick Chubb is second in the league in rushing through two games and Kareem Hunt has over 100 yards as well. If the Steelers defense can slow down the Browns rushing attack in any way and force Jacoby Brissett to throw more it’ll only benefit them. Turnovers are going to be key for the Steelers too. If they are able to win the turnover battle and give Mitchell Trubisky and their offense shorter fields to work with I think they can win the game. The same is true the other way as well. If Trubisky can take care of the ball it bodes well for Pittsburgh. This line was as high as 5.5 at one point and has come down as the majority of the bets and the money are coming in on Pittsburgh. I think either team can win here and my guess is it will be within a field goal. That means the Steelers cover either way so you know what the play is.

The Play: Steelers +4.5

Over/Under 38.5

I’m going to keep rolling with the trends on this one. The under is 6-1 in primetime this season and 22-10 overall. This is a low number, but I think the Steelers are going to be an under team this year. Their style of play lends to it. They’re going to move the ball slowly with run plays and short passes. They also play good defense and will stick around in a lot of close games because of it. The picks for this one are slightly more on the over, but the money is on the under at 63%. It isn’t incredibly encouraging, but I haven’t been on my game with overs this year so I’m going to fade myself and take the under here.

The Play: Under 38.5

Final Prediction

With my earlier predictions of Steelers +4.5 and Under 38.5 give me the Steelers 17-16.

Tonight we get a double header for Monday Night Football. Now normally for the standalone primetime games I’ll pick the spread and the total. For this week we are just going to look at the spreads though. We’ll start with the Bills and Titans and finish with the Eagles and Vikings.

Bills (-10) vs. Titans (+10)

I’ve been having trouble with this one all week. All I keep thinking is that 10 points is too many for a team like Tennessee that is talented and will control the ball and burn the clock. Then I think about what Buffalo did to the Rams last week and I think that we could be looking at a blowout here. Regardless of the spread, I see the Bills winning and I do think this line is inflated a bit due to what happened last week. I just can’t see myself going against the Bills right now though. All it takes is for Josh Allen to put up a game sealing touchdown in a one score game to get this to double digits and a cover for the Bills. Just about 3/4 of the money has come in on Buffalo too. I hate doing this, but you have to roll with the Bills here until they show any sign of slowing down.

The Play: Bills -10

Eagles (-2.5) vs. Vikings (+2.5)

This has all the makings of a great game. Both these teams were impressive last week and seem to continue to be everyone’s dark horse Super Bowl picks. I buy what the Eagles are selling a little bit more than the Vikings though. Minnesota took advantage of a depleted receiving corps for Aaron Rodgers last week and I’d like to see where that momentum takes them this week. My guess is not very far because, that’s right you guessed it, they’re playing in primetime. We all know how Kirk Cousins fares in those games. Not well. The Eagles on the other hand may have only won by three against Detroit last week, but the Lions scored twice in the fourth quarter to close the gap. I think the home field advantage will help the Eagles out immensely. The Eagles also have two talented corners that will hopefully be able to slow down (not stop because that might be impossible) Justin Jefferson as well. I’m feeling a backbreaking interception late in the game for Kirk Cousins and the Eagles win by a score.

The Play: Eagles -2.5

Welcome to my NFL Week 2 betting guide. Each week we are going to pick one favorite, one underdog (AKA Charlie Murphy’s Habitual Line Stepper of the Week), one over, one under, and we’ll cap it off with my lock of the week. I finished 3-2 in Week 1 so here’s to another positive card in Week 2.

Favorite

Packers (-10) vs. Bears

I’m going to do something here that I hate and that’s take a double digit favorite. I just can’t possibly see the Packers playing as poorly as they did last week again. There is precedent for this too. If you remember last year the Packers got absolutely demolished by the Saints 38-3 in Week 1. They then came into Week 2 as double digit favorites against the Lions on Monday Night and covered. This feels like an eerily similar scenario. I know the offensive line is a question with both Tackles on the injury report and, of course, the fact that Aaron Rodgers has nobody throw to. Again though, I can’t help but feel like they run away with this game. Then you look at the Bears who are riding high off of an upset of the 49ers last week. They are in PRIME position for a letdown spot here. Especially because they just aren’t a good team. The other odd thing is while 74% of the wagers have been placed on the Bears the Packers have seen 77% of the money. The sharps know something the general public doesn’t and I’m going to roll with them and back the team poised for a blowout. On the road at Lambeau on Sunday Night Football has all the makings for Aaron Rodgers to put on a show and, let’s not forget how much he loves to embarrass the Bears. Give me the Packers by 17.

Charlie Murphy’s Habitual Line Stepper of the Week (Underdog)

Saints (+2.5) vs. Buccaneers

I know that Tom Brady is going to beat the Saints in the regular season at some point, but I really like the Saints as home dogs this week. The higher percentage of bets and money is still coming in on the Bucs so I’m holding out hope this line goes to 3 at some point. Regardless though I like what the Saints can do through the air now that Michael Thomas is back. Jameis Winston also looked great last year before getting injured in these teams first matchup last season. The Saints offense seemed to find their groove in the fourth quarter last week coming back to beat Atlanta. The Bucs on the other hand won easily, but seemed disjointed offensively especially early on settling for field goals. I think the Saints defense can continue to frustrate the Bucs and, I’m looking forward to the Mike Evans vs Marshon Lattimore matchup as well. Lattimore has had Evans number in the past and he figures to shadow him on Sunday as Chris Godwin is listed as questionable and doesn’t project to play while still nursing his hamstring injury from last week. I think if the Saints defense shows up Jameis and Co. will have no problem putting up enough points to get the job done.

Over

Commanders vs. Lions (48.5)

I like a few overs this week, but what I really like about this is that the number is a half point below 7 total touchdowns. I don’t think it’s out of the question to get that done. In fact, I think its quite doable. The Lions were part of the highest scoring game last week and are the kings of garbage time touchdowns. I also liked what I saw from Washington last week and I think they could quite easily put up 4 touchdowns again against a subpar Detroit defense. That means we would only need the Lions to score 3 to get to 49. The game is also in Detroit and I think the dome will lend itself to more scoring. For what it’s worth 85% of the money is on the over too.

Under

49ers vs. Seahawks (41)

These two teams seemed destined to compete in low scoring games this season. The Seahawks impressed on Monday Night besting the Broncos, but they didn’t score a single point in the second half. The Niners played in sloppy conditions in Chicago last week and were only able to muster 10 points. I expect San Francisco’s offense to wake up a bit, but I can’t see Seattle scoring much more than they did last week. This feels like a bounce-back spot for the 49ers. Their defense was able to hold the Bears in check for much of their game last week and I expect that to continue. Offensively I think they do just enough to win considering they’ll be down Elijah Mitchell and George Kittle is still banged up. I’ll go with a 24-13 final score for the under.

Lock of the Week

Bengals (-7) vs. Cowboys

Look, this is pretty simple. The Bengals need to come out and dominate the Cowboys after what happened to them last week. There’s blood in the water with Dallas now that Dak is down for the next few weeks and teams will look to take advantage. Cincy needs a get right game and this feels like the perfect spot to do it. Dallas was awful last week even when Dak was still playing. Give me the Bengals by double digits.

Week 2 kicks off with a doozy as the Chargers head out to Kansas City to take on the Chiefs. Both teams were impressive last week and we’ll see if they can keep that momentum rolling on a short week. Will the Chiefs offense continue to dominate or can the Chargers new look defense slow them down? Let’s take a look.

The Spread: Chiefs -4

This line continues to jump around. It started at 3 points in favor of Kansas City, but has now jumped up to 4. Yesterday it even got as high as 4.5. I’m guessing it’ll continue to move as we approach Thursday night, but for now I am going to base my pick off the current line. I think this has continued to swing more in favor of the Chiefs because the Chargers are dealing with two pretty significant injuries to WR Keenan Allen and CB J.C Jackson. They are both listed as questionable and I’m guessing once their status becomes official it will effect the final line. The Chiefs were no doubt impressive last week in their rout of the Cardinals, but I think that may have inflated this line a bit. The Chargers are still very good and although they may have slowed down a touch in the second half against the Raiders last week when Keenan Allen went out they absolutely can keep up with the Chiefs vaunted offense. The public is on the Chiefs at 76% and the handle is at 78%. I understand the hype for the Chiefs, but at the same time these two teams have played some very close games in the last two seasons including two OT games. Even with the Chargers injury problems they still have a top tier QB. I think they are able to keep this close enough to cover. Kansas City by a field goal sounds about right to me. I’d bet this down to +3.5 anything lower than that I’d be careful taking the Chargers. We ride with the dogs again.

The Play: Chargers +4

Over/Under 54

This is brutal for me. My heart is telling me to take the over and my brain is saying under. Last year I tried to big brain myself and I took the under in their Week 15 matchup. That line was also at 54 and there were only 27 points scored after 3 quarters. Well wouldn’t you know these two offenses put on a clinic in the 4th quarter totaling 29 points and hitting the over. I’m not letting that happen again. That’s right no analytics where I pretend like I know what I’m talking about here. This is straight up manalytics. A personal revenge over if you will. Let’s go.

The Play: Over 54

Final Prediction

With my earlier prediction of Chargers +4 and Over 54 give me the Chiefs 33-30 in OT.