Week 7 comes to an end with the Chicago Bears coming to visit my New England Patriots. Another absolutely riveting game to cap off killer slate from Week 7 (sense the sarcasm). Thankfully I have a vested interest in this game or I wouldn’t be too fired up about this one. There’s always money to be made though, let’s take a look at how we can do that tonight.

The Spread: Patriots (-8.5)

On paper this seems like an obvious bet. The only thing I worry about is just how healthy is Mac Jones going to be coming off his high ankle sprain from Week 3? The Bears pass defense has performed well so far this season which means we’ll probably see a healthy dose of Rhamondre Stevenson and Damien Harris. I also think the Pats will try and protect Mac in his first game back by not asking him to do too much. Expect some long, calculated, time consuming drives from the Patriots offense tonight.

The Bears have been quite one-dimensional offensively and I think that plays right into Belichick’s hands. He’s always able to take away the thing you do best and make you beat him another way. Well when the only thing you do well is hand the ball to David Montgomery and Khalil Herbert you’re going to have a hard time against the Patriots defense. My only real worry is Justin Fields scrambling and ability to get outside the pocket and make plays. Outside of that it’s going to be a long night for the Bears offense. With that being said I think my pick is kind of obvious. Come on, did you think I was going any other way with this? Pats by double digits.

The Play: Patriots -8.5

Over/Under (40)

Again I think this pick is pretty clear as well. It’s going to be cold, windy, and rainy in Foxboro. The Bears offense stinks. The Pats will probably be running the ball for the majority of the game. I mean this screams under to me. Admittedly I’d be perfectly fine losing this bet if the Patriots go out and hang a 40 spot on the Bears, but I don’t see it happening. Once again we ride with a Primetime Under.

The Play: Under 40

Final Prediction

With my earlier predictions of Patriots -8.5 and under 40 give me the Patriots 24-7.

I decided to do the betting guide a little different for Week 7. After pouring over the data I realized I basically only like underdogs this week. So in keeping with the Chappelle’s Show theme to the underdog pick (and the fact that it’s Week “SEVEN”), this week we’re going to do the Grits ‘n’ Gravy Lucky Number 7 dogs of the week. Hopefully after this week you can buy your momma a car, and spend the rest on PCP if that’s your thing.

Roll #1

Falcons (+6.5) vs. Bengals

They’re just going to keep disrespecting the Falcons huh? I mean obviously the Bengals are the better team and they probably win this game, but all this Atlanta team has done this year is cover. They’re 6-0 against the spread and you want to give me 6.5 points? I’m going to take that every single time. I thought after their win last week they would start closing the gap on their lines, but I guess not. The Bengals have been playing good football as of late, but Atlanta has shown they can hang around with anyone. Time to go from ashy to classy. Falcons Cover

Roll #2

Commanders (+5) vs. Packers

This line is already starting to move so get it here while you can. I understand the Commanders haven’t looked great this year, but that was the Carson Wentz led Commanders. Now we throw it back to the Taylor Heinicke days and anything can happen. Green Bay has struggled to this point and are coming off a beatdown at the hands of the Jets. Conventional wisdom would tell you the Packers should roll here, but you might’ve thought the same thing last week coming off a loss to the Giants. I don’t really have any stats to back it up, but I just feel like this is a good spot for Washington. A shakeup to the offense will be good for them and I think their defense can play well enough to keep the Packers offense in check. Someone wins by a field goal. Either way we cover.

Roll #3

Texans (+7) vs. Raiders

This is the sharp play this week. Everybody and their mother is going to take the Raiders in this game because of how they played against the Chiefs in their last game. Not to mention the fact that the Texans suck. I just don’t think the Raiders should be laying 7 points to anyone right now. They’re sitting at 1-4 and outside of the Chiefs game they haven’t looked great this year especially offensively. Houston has had a tendency to play close games this year as well. They’ve only lost by more than a touchdown once and even in that game they were within a field goal in the fourth quarter. The Raiders probably win, but Houston keeps it close.

Roll #4

The Local Thug Rodney “Quills” Dinkins Rat Line of the Week

Giants (+3) vs. Jaguars (-3)

Stay the fuck away from this game. Vegas is clearly baiting giving the 5-1 Giants 3 points against the 2-4 Jaguars. At first glance this seems like an easy bet on New York, but it isn’t. I’m sure the game being in Jacksonville plays a role in the line, but regardless just stay away here somethings fishy and I smell a rat. You don’t want to end up like my friend Grits ‘n’ Gravy getting snake eyes on an all in roll against Leonard Washington, and that’s what’ll happen if you take the Giants here. Just be careful “Quills” doesn’t come in and take the money we won on the other three games and you’ll be walking out of Sunday with some money in your pocket.

Week 7 begins with a battle for relevancy between the Saints and Cardinals. Both teams sit at 2-4 so if they have any designs on making a run they’ll need to win this game. Hopefully we can get an interesting Thursday Night game for once, but honestly we probably won’t. Let’s take a look.

The Spread: Cardinals (-2)

This ones tricky. I’m not that confident in either direction. Both teams haven’t looked great this year although the Cardinals get Deandre Hopkins back this week. I’m not sure how much of a factor he’ll play though as he may be on a snap count this week. The Saints on the other hand are banged up big time. They were without their top 3 WRs last week and still almost beat the Bengals. Both teams are desperate here so unfortunately I can’t use that logic which has helped me out the last few Monday/Thursday games. My thought here is similar to two Thursday’s ago with the Colts and Broncos. In a close game with two evenly matched teams it’s probably smarter to take the points even if it’s only 2. Regardless of who’s been at QB the Saints have been able to hang around with some solid teams this year. I think this is a close game so like I said earlier you have to take the points. Fade the public again. We ride with the Saints.

The Play: Saints +2

Over/Under (44)

The under has just been hitting at such a crazy pace right now I don’t think you can bet against it. Unless of course you get a game like Chiefs/Raiders or something like that. The Cardinals have struggled offensively and while the Saints haven’t necessarily I think their injuries will start to catch up to them. This feels like a game where we’ll get some turnovers and if you watched the Bills and the Chiefs you know that turnovers are an over killer. I think you go under here and hope for another slop fest like the last few weeks.

The Play: Under (44)

Final Prediction

With my earlier predictions of Saints +2 and Under 44 give me the Saints 20-17.

Week 6 caps off with yet another Denver Broncos primetime game. I don’t know how they keep doing this to us, but here we are. After a 2-0 Thursday we finished up 3-2 yesterday for a 5-2 start to the week. Hopefully we can keep that momentum rolling tonight.

The Spread: Chargers (-4.5)

I’ve been thinking about who I want to take in this game since last night and the answer might gross you out. Yes, that means I’m thinking about Denver. While they have looked horrendous offensively they still do have a good defense and the Chargers are missing key players on offense (Keenan Allen and Rashawn Slater to name a few) and not to mention Joey Bosa on defense. LA has been the better team this year, but they haven’t been as impressive as it may seem. They have wins over the Raiders, Texans, and Browns teams that have combined to win 4 games through 6 weeks. The line here just feels like too much for a divisional game. Both teams need this, but the Broncos risk their season slipping away with a loss. Russ is also due to have at least a decent game. He can’t keep up this level of poor play forever. I can’t believe I’m going to type this. I actually just threw up in my mouth thinking about it, but you gotta do it tonight. Broncos country, let’s ride.

The Play: Broncos +4.5

Over/Under (46)

I mean I think you just have to keep taking unders in Broncos games no matter what. 46 is for sure an attainable number, but again we are talking about the Broncos right now. I think for them to win the game they’re going to have to control the ball and burn the clock. They haven’t been a quick strike scoring team either this year and I think that plays to the under as well. The Chargers can get theirs when they need to, but I’m hoping with a slightly depleted offense they’ll struggle at times to move the ball. You’ll have to sweat this one out, but it’s the right move.

The Play: Under 46

Final Prediction

With my earlier predictions of Broncos +4.5 and Under 46 give me the Broncos 21-20.

Welcome to my NFL Week 6 betting guide. Each week we are going to pick one favorite, one underdog (AKA Charlie Murphy’s Habitual Line Stepper of the Week), one over, one under, and we’ll cap it off with a bonus pick that I can’t call my lock of the week anymore because it keeps losing. Last Sunday I went 2-3 which is quite the turnaround from the last two Sundays. Hopefully that’s a sign of good things to come and we can get back over .500 this week.

Favorite

Bengals (-2) vs. Saints

I don’t love a lot of these games this week and I feel like I might be falling into a trap here. The Bengals battled last week with the Ravens and deserve to be favored in this game even on the road. The Saints have shown glimpses of being a good team, but have also looked very bad at times. Cincinnati is still a team with playoff and Super Bowl aspirations. They cannot afford to fall to 2-4 on the season especially if Baltimore keeps winning and pulls away with the division. I truly think they win this game and with the line at less than a field goal I don’t think it’ll be that difficult for them to cover. Bengals escape New Orleans with a 3-7 point victory and cover.

Charlie Murphy’s Habitual Line Stepper of the Week (Underdog)

Falcons (+5.5) vs. 49ers

I hate doing this to my Niners, but this feels like a letdown spot for them. They beat up on a very bad Panthers team last week after a huge Monday Night win the week before. I think they might come back down to earth a bit after having to play on the east coast in consecutive weeks. Atlanta on the other hand has been frisky this season. They are 5-0 ATS and I think giving them almost a touchdown here is a mistake. They’ve continued to be undervalued and I think that will start to correct if they cover here. The Falcons backdoor cover this game with a late score.

Over

Chiefs vs. Bills (54)

Here’s the thing, I actually don’t even feel that good about this pick, but you just have to take it. This could be one of the best regular season games of the year. It also has all the makings of a high scoring game. I mean remember their playoff game last year? The over was almost dead and then they scored about a million points in final two minutes and went to overtime. Just like the Chiefs Monday Night game you’re a loser who doesn’t like fun if you take the under. Take the over, you have to.

Under

Jaguars vs. Colts (42)

The last 10 Colts games have hit the under. The record for consecutive games hitting an under is 11. So we’re going for history here folks. I just can’t sit here after watching last weeks Thursday Night game and think that Matt Ryan is going to be able to will the Colts to enough points to hit this over. I think the only way it gets done is if the Jaguars go off for over 30. Indy scored a whopping 0 points in their last matchup and I can’t see them getting much more on Sunday. I’m shocked they didn’t save this game for Thursday Night Football it seems like it would fit the mold perfectly. Under all day.

The Definitely Not My Lock of the Week Bonus Pick

Patriots (+2.5) vs. Browns

Call me a fraud if you want, but I won’t be betting on this game. Trust me, I have 27 years of rabid fandom and possibly a season hanging in the balance. I don’t need anything else to get me going for this one. The Patriots come into this game riding high off a shutout of the Lions last week while the Browns lost a heartbreaker to the Chargers. Simply put, I think this comes down to how well the Patriots defense can slow down Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. You know even with Bailey Zappe at QB the Patriots should be able to move the ball and put up points against the Browns Defense. I’m banking on Bill Belichick being able to scheme up the Pats defense and New England coming out of Cleveland with a victory. Take the moneyline here if you’re feeling frisky too. Pats by a touchdown.

We have another Thursday Night snoozer on the horizon it seems. Or who knows this might be the game of the week after everyone preemptively shit on it after last weeks Broncos-Colts debacle. I have no idea which way I’m leaning here so I’m just going to talk myself into something while I write this. Let’s get into it.

The Spread: PK

You can get this line anywhere between a point on either side, but I’m going to roll with a pick’em for the purposes of this blog because that’s what my book has. You could give a million reasons as to why you’d take either of these teams here too that’s what makes this pick so difficult. The Commanders have looked terrible since their Week 1 win, although they did hang around with the Titans on Sunday which is at least encouraging. The Bears won a sloppy game against the 49ers and beat a lowly Texans team. Not a ton to write home about for either of these two. I think in a situation like this you have to look at what team has more talent and that is probably the Commanders. Offensively they still have three very good WRs and two good RBs. If Carson Wentz can limit mistakes and stop running around in the pocket like he has his shoes tied together, I think Washington can do enough to pull this one out. The Bears have come across as one dimensional this season and I think that will work against them. The Commanders defensive strength is their front four so if they can stifle the Bears rushing attack and force Justin Fields to beat them they can come out of Chicago with a much needed win. This feels like a spot to take the desperate team and especially one that the public is fading at 65%. Hop on the riverboat this is going to be a bumpy ride.

The Play: Commanders PK

Over/Under 38

This seems like another classic primetime under to get your week started. The number is so low it scares me a bit, but Soldier Field has also yielded 69% to the under since 2019. I’m skeptical here to take the under because it feels like one that we could lose quickly if there’s some early scoring. I’m going to bank on these offenses stalling for a large portion of this game though and begrudgingly take this under.

The Play: Under 38

Final Prediction

With my earlier predictions of Commanders PK and Under 38 give me the Commanders 17-14.

Week 5 closes out with a great matchup as the Chiefs play host to the Raiders. This could be just the palate cleansing contest we need after Thursday’s debacle of a game. After a 2-3 day yesterday (4-3 overall) I’m hoping we can close the week on a high note.

The Spread: Chiefs (-7)

The Raiders have been tough to bet on this season. Take it from someone who’s had some type of action in all four of their games and is a cool 1-3 on those bets. The Chiefs on the other hand have been a set it and forget it team since Patrick Mahomes has been the starter. So that means the Chiefs are the pick here right? I don’t think it’s necessarily that easy. 7 points is a lot and the Raiders have vastly underperformed this season and I think after last week they might be turning the corner. The Chiefs have the 29th ranked defense and the Raiders have the best WR in the NFL to go along with a star studded cast on offense. It always seems that when a team has an impressive win they come back down to earth in some sense. It doesn’t necessarily mean they won’t win outright, but maybe they don’t cover a big spread. You just have to look back a couple weeks when Buffalo trounced the Titans on Monday night and proceeded to lose as 5/6 point favorites in Miami. The public is pretty squarely on the Chiefs too and I like that even more. I think this game is going to be closer than you think. I can’t tell you who it’ll be, but someone wins by a field goal here so you know what that means? Take the Rrrrrrraiders.

The Play: Raiders +7

Over/Under 51.5

This is the one. This is the game where we get an absolute scoring barrage. I can feel it. Like I said above the Chiefs defense hasn’t been great this year and they face a tough test in this Raiders offense. The Chiefs also just put up 41 points last week against a very good Buccaneers defense too. This has all the makings of a shootout. You also can’t be a wet blanket and take this under. If you do you’re just a loser that doesn’t like fun. It’s time. Let’s see some points and get this over.

The Play: Over 51.5

Final Prediction

With my earlier predictions of Raiders +7 and Over 51.5 give me the Chiefs 34-31.

Welcome to my NFL Week 5 betting guide. Each week we are going to pick one favorite, one underdog (AKA Charlie Murphy’s Habitual Line Stepper of the Week), one over, one under, and we’ll cap it off with a bonus pick that I can’t call my lock of the week anymore because it keeps losing. Last Sunday was horrific again so let’s just get into it.

Favorite

49ers (-6.5) vs. Panthers

I went back and forth here between the Niners and Eagles for my favorite, but I landed on San Francisco because the Cardinals scare me a little more than the Panthers do. Obviously taking a road favorite at almost a touchdown is a risk, but I’m banking on the fact that Carolina will have a difficult time moving the ball on this defense. Defensively I don’t think they’re good enough to keep this game as low scoring as they’d need to in order for them to hang around either. Look for the 49ers to jump out to an early lead, let the defense do their thing, and not look back. Niners by double digits here.

Charlie Murphy’s Habitual Line Stepper of the Week (Underdog)

Seahawks (+5.5) vs. Saints

The Seahawks stink, but I really like them here for some reason. The Saints are coming off a tough loss in London and I think not having a bye after playing out there will hurt them. They may have Jameis Winston back for this one, but I don’t think it matters too much. The Saints offense has struggled with Winston at QB this year. The Seahawks have shown that they can put up points when not playing a top 10 defense as well. They should have some confidence coming off their 48 point output last week and I think they can keep that momentum rolling. This feels like a close game and I think giving the Seahawks that many points is a mistake. This line should probably be somewhere around 3 and I see that being the difference in the game. Either way we cover with the Seahawks.

Over

Bengals vs. Ravens (48.5)

Primetime unders have been my thing this year, but the script is going to flip at some point and we’re going to start getting some overs. I think this is the game to do it. Two explosive offenses and we only need 7 touchdowns to get there. The only thing that might hold us back is if the Ravens run the ball too much and kill the clock. If we can get a quick strike score to start the game and turn this into a shootout we’ll get this over quickly. Since the Bengals found their footing they have scored 27 points in each of the last two games. The Ravens have scored at least 20 in every contest as well as played in some high scoring games. This feels like the primetime shootout we’ve been looking for these first few weeks let’s see some points.

Under

Bears vs. Vikings (44)

This is basically just a “the Bears aren’t going to score any points” under right here. I would’ve expected this to be a couple points lower and that’s why I like it. Chicago has scored over 20 points just once this season and the Vikings have topped out at 28. I think it’ll be close to the total, but the under is a bit safer. A couple of turnovers from both sides and the fact that the Bears will run the ball a ton will slow the game down and limit the scoring. Think like a 24-14 final here for the under.

The Definitely Not My Lock of the Week Bonus Pick

Giants (+8) vs. Packers

I’m going to keep the name of this pick for now because we at least pushed it last week and it wasn’t an outright loss. The Packers most likely find a way to win this game, but they aren’t playing like a team that should be giving 8 points right now, especially in a neutral site game overseas. The Giants are an ugly 3-1 this year, but are also 3-1 ATS and that counts for something. I can see New York hanging around like the Patriots did last week and if you’re going to give me more than a touchdown I’m going to take it. Danny Dimes also plays better on the road and this is about as much of a road game as you’re going to find. Packers win, Giants cover.

After an up and down set of picks in Week 4 we finished the week right at .500 (4-4-1). Now we get to kick off Week 5 in what I can only imagine is going to be an incredibly slow paced and boring game. I think the worst part about it is the fact that I even have to pick one of these teams. There’s a lot to unpack here so let’s get into it.

The Spread: Broncos (-3)

The line here is kind of all over the place depending on where you look. It’s pretty much 50/50 with the Broncos favored by either 3 or 3.5. To be perfectly honest I hate both of these teams this year and I’d rather just not give a pick, but that’s not what the people are here for. Both teams have struggled offensively, but played good defense for the most part. Starting with the Broncos they are probably the most unimpressive team I’ve seen that had any sort of expectations coming in to the year. Last week against the Raiders they put up 23 points in a loss and it was the first time they eclipsed 20 this season. That is mind blowing considering the way the media was talking about them before the season and the contract they gave to Russell Wilson. I didn’t buy it then and I’m still not buying it now.

I was a little higher on Indy, but I think I put it perfectly when I said I was “cautiously optimistic.” Matt Ryan has looked like a shell of himself this season and outside of stealing a game at home against the Chiefs they’ve been just straight up bad this year. Somethings got to give though and it’s tough to put my finger on what it is. Both teams could be without their star running backs (Javonte Williams tore his ACL Sunday and Jonathan Taylor is questionable) and key pieces on defense (Colts Shaq Leonard and Broncos Randy Gregory) that won’t play Thursday. This figures to be a close game and in close games I’d rather take the points. If your book has the Colts at +3.5 I’d jump on it, but I still like them at 3 especially if Taylor ends up being ready to go (emphasis on the IF). I wouldn’t go any lower than 3 with Indy, but I think where the line is at now they’re the move.

The Play: Colts +3

Over/Under (42.5)

For me this pick seems like a no brainer for the under so I imagine we’ll get a shootout instead. I’m not a fan of taking unders because you can always lose it right up until the end, but the Primetime unders have been hot this year and these two teams have been non-existent on offense for the most part this season. Then I look at the fact that Javonte Williams is out for Denver and the Colts could be without Jonathan Taylor and I like it even more. Everything is pointing towards the under and that makes me nervous, but I’m going to stick with my gut here and hope this plays out like the Broncos/49ers game from Week 3.

The Play: Under 42.5

Final Prediction

With my earlier predictions of Colts +3 and Under 42.5 give me the Colts 20-17.