Buffalo Bills (12-3) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (11-4)

The Spread: Bills (-2)

The last standalone Monday/Thursday game of the year figures to be the best one yet. Buffalo travels to Cincinnati for a game with massive playoff implications. I’ve gone over this pick in my head a bunch over the last week and I’m still having trouble figuring out which way I’m leaning. The Bengals have been absolute monsters ATS this season, but when is the right time to jump off the train with them? I think tonight might be the night for it. Buffalo is the best team they are going to play so far this year (yes, even better than KC) and I feel like the Bengals are trending towards a letdown after basically only playing two halves of football in their last two games (2nd half vs Bucs and 1st half vs Pats). They can’t afford to sleepwalk through 30 minutes of this game or they’ll find themselves in a hole they won’t be able to dig out of. If the Bills want the AFC to go through Orchard Park it starts with a win tonight in Cincinnati.

The Play: Bills -2

Total (50.5)

I mean with all the crap games we’ve dealt with in primetime this year wouldn’t it be great to end on an absolute shootout? Neither of these teams have necessarily been over teams this year, in fact, they’ve both only hit the over five times a piece. Still though I’m feeling like we’re going to get some points tonight. This has all them makings of a high scoring back and forth game. A little Week 17 appetizer for the playoffs. Give me the over.

The Play: Over 50.5

Final Prediction

Bills 31 Bengals 28

Two Sundays to go. Last week we we’re 4-1. Still chasing that 5-0 week though. Let’s get into it.

Favorite

Packers (-3) vs. Vikings

I know Green Bay is -3.5 on a lot of books, but I’m getting them at -3 on mine so that’s the line I’m going with. This is similar to the Lions-Vikings game a couple weeks ago. Why is a 7-8 team favored over a 12-3 team? The Vikings have found themselves as underdogs with a better record twice so far this year against Detroit and Dallas and they are 0-2 SU/ATS in those games. Keeping with that trend I’m going Packers here.

Charlie Murphy’s Habitual Line Stepper of the Week (Underdog)

Broncos (+12.5) vs. Chiefs

This could be dumb, but this line seems inflated to me. While the Broncos did get blown out on Christmas Day they did play the Chiefs to a 6 point game a couple weeks ago. In fact aside from the Christmas game the only other game where the Broncos wouldn’t have covered this spread was a 13 point loss to the Panthers. The Chiefs also aren’t covering spreads like they used to. They’re 5-9-1 ATS this season despite their 12-3 record mostly due to inflated lines like this. I think the Broncos can keep this just close enough to cover here.

Over

Rams vs. Chargers (42.5)

This seems oddly low for a total. The Rams offense seems to have found a bit of footing with Baker Mayfield at QB and, the Chargers offense having both Mike Williams and Keenan Allen back will help the scoring in this one. I don’t think it’s unreasonable to see both of these teams in the low-mid 20s. 24-21 gets this done with a couple points to spare. Sounds easy enough right?

Under

Browns vs. Commanders (40.5)

A struggling Deshaun Watson against a good defense? My old friend Carson Wentz getting the nod? This screams under to me. I think the Commanders win a low scoring, slow, run dominant game to keep their playoff hopes alive.

The Definitely Not My Lock of the Week Bonus Pick

Bears (+6) vs. Lions

Probably another dumb pick here, but I like the Bears to cover this spread. I rode the Lions right into the ground last week as their ATS streak came to an end at the hands of the Panthers. I don’t see how the Lions should be giving 6 points to anyone despite their recent success. The Bears have been able to hang around in a lot of games lately as well. This seems like one of those Bears games this year where they give up a late lead and lose by a score. Lions win Bears cover.

Dallas Cowboys (11-4) vs. Tennessee Titans (7-8)

The Spread: Cowboys (-10.5)

The final Thursday Night game of the season is another absolute dud. I’ll keep this one short. I don’t love favorites over 10 points, but you have to take the Cowboys. The Titans have nothing to play for in this game. Win or lose they will be playing for the division in Week 18 against the Jaguars. I can only imagine they will be resting a ton of players as they have been ravaged by injuries lately. Malik Willis is also just not good at this point. It’s early in his career and maybe he’ll turn it around next year, but he’s not the answer right now. The Cowboys still have a slimmer of hope at winning the division and, the fact that they play on Thursday and the Eagles play Sunday (so the Eagles wouldn’t already have won and clinched the division) makes me think they’ll still be plenty motivated for this one. If you can get this at 10 or 9.5 I love this line, but regardless you still have to go Cowboys here.

The Play: Cowboys -10.5

Total (40)

This is tough. To take the under here would mean either the Cowboys aren’t going to score enough points to cover the spread or the Titans aren’t going to score much if at all. I’ll lean towards the latter here. If Derrick Henry can’t get cooking the Titans have nothing on offense. Dallas runs away with this early, go under here.

The Play: Under 40

Final Prediction

Cowboys 30 Titans 7

Los Angeles Chargers (8-6) vs. Indianapolis Colts (4-9-1)

The Spread: Chargers (-4.5)

I feel like I’m walking into a trap here. There’s no reason the Chargers should lose this game or it should even be close. Nick Foles is starting at QB for the Colts and I’m not sure if that makes me feel any better. I do like the fact that it could spark something on offense for the Colts though. The Colts defense has also been good this year for the most part. Obviously the big comeback last week doesn’t look great, but overall they’ve been able to keep the Colts in games this year. Call me crazy, but I think the Indy can keep this one close. I don’t know if I trust the Chargers to cover this big of a spread. They would have only covered 4 or 4.5 points as a favorite 3 times this season. The Colts on the other hand would’ve covered this number 8 times this season. I know it’s a risk jumping on the Colts in Nick Foles first start of the year, but there isn’t a lot of tape on him at QB in Indy and that could be a factor. The Colts keep this one closer than you’d think.

The Play: Colts +4.5

Total (46)

This basically comes down to if you think the Colts defense can slow down the Chargers. Based off my pick for the spread obviously that’s where I think this game is headed. I think the Colts can keep the Chargers in check and a Nick Foles led offense probably isn’t going to be putting up a ton of points tonight. If the Colts cover this will be a low scoring game. Go under here.

The Play: Under 46

Final Prediction

Chargers 20 Colts 17

Same as last week we have two days of NFL football this weekend. Every game besides the Monday Night game is on the table for these picks. I’m in a holiday time crunch here we’re going rapid fire. Let’s get into it.

Favorite

Steelers (-2) vs. Raiders

This is the night game on Saturday and I know everyone wants something to bet on during their Christmas Eve party and that should be the Steelers. The Steelers have looked solid the last few weeks and they get Kenny Pickett back for this one. I like Pittsburgh at home and this feels like a classic let down spot for the Raiders after last weeks win. Mike Tomlin has also never had a losing season as Steelers head coach. With a loss this would be his first, but I think he keeps his over .500 hopes alive for another week.

Charlie Murphy’s Habitual Line Stepper of the Week (Underdog)

Packers (+3.5) vs. Dolphins

Miami is trending in the wrong direction at the wrong time. They desperately need a win here and they might get it, but I think this is a close game. Like last Monday the Packers still have something to play for and while they need a lot to break their way they still have a chance. They also seem to have found some sort of rhythm offensively. I like this at 3.5 I’m not so sure I’d jump on it any lower than 3 though.

Over

Eagles vs. Cowboys (46.5)

I like this number where it is. Even with Gardner Minshew at QB for the Eagles I think this is a high scoring game. This game is also in Dallas and won’t be effected by the weather this weekend. Dallas has put up some big numbers lately and the Eagles offense has looked great all season. I think we see both teams in the high 20’s to hit this over.

Under

Saints vs. Browns (32)

This is a preposterously low under so I have to take it. It’s going to be a mess in Cleveland with this storm coming through and both of these offenses suck. You’ll see maybe five minutes of this game on redzone Sunday it’s going to stink that sounds like an under to me.

The Definitely Not My Lock of the Week Bonus Pick

Lions (-2.5) vs. Panthers

Even on the road I love the Lions here. They Panthers have had a few nice wins this season, but haven’t been able to get over the hump and catch the Bucs in the division race. With the Commanders playing the 49ers and the Seahawks playing the Chiefs the Lions are primed to jump into a playoff spot with a win. I’m going to continue riding the hot hand and roll with the Lions. Lock it in.

Jacksonville Jaguars (6-8) vs. New York Jets (7-7)

The Spread: Jets (-1)

Thursday Night we get a matchup between the top two picks in last years draft. This feels like it should be a spot where you’d want to buy low on the Jets and sell high on the Jags. I just don’t know if I can bring myself to do it though. The Jets have seemed to only either win or have close games with Zach Wilson at QB because the defense has stepped up in a big way in all of those games. If Mike White was playing I’d probably be on the Jets, but I think I have to keep up with my strategy of fading Mr. INT. Both these teams are fighting for their playoff lives too so I can’t use the desperation angle either. The Jags are potentially staring down a Week 18 winner takes all game versus the Titans for the division and, the Jets are squarely in the AFC wild card picture with some winnable games down the stretch. At the end of the day I just like the way the Jaguars are playing more right now. Trevor Lawrence seems to be coming into his own and this could be a signature primetime win for him.

The Play: Jaguars +1

Total (38)

I keep getting burned by Monday and Thursday overs. The last few have missed by just a few points. So I know if I switch it up and take the under they’ll score a million points in this game. The Jets defense is very good, but this number is so low they would’ve hit it in half their games this year even though they’ve only hit five overs this year. The Jaguars on the other hand would be 11-2-1 to this number this year in terms of the over. I know the cold will play a factor, but I’m riding with the over here.

The Play: Over 38

Final Prediction

Jaguars 24 Jets 20

Los Angeles Rams (4-9) vs. Green Bay Packers (5-8)

The Spread: Packers (-7.5)

I’m sick of having to make picks on these horrible standalone games, but here we go again. I hate this line for Green Bay, but they are the better team in this game especially at home. Sure the Rams had a nice win last Thursday, just don’t forget how bad they looked offensively leading up to those last two drives. I’m not ready to buy in on the Baker Mayfield hype train after two drives. The problem is I also have no trust in the Packers at this point either. They do matchup nicely with the Rams though. They are horrible against the run, but the Rams don’t run the ball well at all. At the end of the day I’d rather bet on Aaron Rodgers than roll the dice with the Rams. The Packers still have a very outside shot at the playoffs so they still have something to play for. The Rams are more or less eliminated and I can’t imagine their motivation will be high to play in the freezing cold at Lambeau. If you can get this down to 7 and not sacrifice your payout then maybe think about doing that to protect from a backdoor cover, but I think you have to go Packers here.

The Play: Packers -7.5

Total (39.5)

I had been all over the prime time unders and once they stopped hitting regularly I pivoted to the over. Well, that hasn’t gone so great for me lately. Looking at this I think I like the over, but I’m not sure how many points the Rams will actually be able to score. If we can get them in the mid to high teens I think we can cover the spread and the over. We’re going to need Baker to string together a couple nice drives here, but that number is just too low to pass up.

The Play: Over 39.5

Final Prediction

Packers 28 Rams 16

We get a whole weekend of NFL games this week. There are three standalone Saturday games to go along with our regular Sunday slate. Any game from this weekend is in play for this blog so let’s get into it.

Favorite

Lions (-1) vs. Jets

I think we just have to keep riding with the Lions right? They are one of the hottest teams in the NFL currently and even on the road I like the fact that they’re only giving one point. I was going to stay away from this game, but then I heard that the Jets medical staff is not clearing Mike White for this weekend and you know what that means. Mr. INT himself Zach Wilson is back. I think the Jets offense would’ve had a nice bounce back game against this Lions defense with Mike White, but I don’t think that’s possible with Wilson. I think the Lions offense keeps rolling and guts out a one score win on the road to get back to .500 and thrust themselves into the playoff picture.

Charlie Murphy’s Habitual Line Stepper of the Week (Underdog)

Colts (+3.5) vs. Vikings

This might look gross on paper, but I love it for some reason. I love myself a 3.5 point underdog. The thing is you have to make sure you get in on the right one. Like on Thursday I went with the 3.5 point favorite and you might see another one of those later in this blog, but I just feel like the Colts can keep this close. The Vikings aren’t blowing anyone out right now and I think if the Colts can get Jonathan Taylor going they’ll be right in this game. If that’s the case and they don’t have to ask Matt Ryan to do too much that’s a recipe for success. This seems like it’s going to be one of those bullshit Vikings games where they have a late score to win the game. It’ll be by a field goal or less though and the Colts will cover.

Over

Eagles vs. Bears (48.5)

These teams are tied (along with the Lions) for the best over record this season at 9-4. I like where this number is because we can get over it with 7 touchdowns. The Bears offense has done a great job at moving the ball lately and as you all know Justin Fields is really coming into his own. The Eagles are coming off a game against the Giants where they hit the over on their own as well. I think we get a lot of points in this game and even if the Bears offense stumbles and doesn’t score a lot the Eagles should be able to cover us against a subpar Chicago defense.

Under

Cardinals vs. Broncos (37)

I know, I know the Broncos under didn’t hit last week. We could be getting a Colt McCoy vs. Brett Rypien matchup though. Russell Wilson is still questionable with a concussion he sustained last week. Even if he does play though I still don’t trust them to score many points. The Cardinals offense was only able to muster up 13 points against the Patriots on Monday and I don’t think they’ll do any better versus the Broncos defense. This game ends with both teams in the teens.

The Definitely Not My Lock of the Week Bonus Pick

Bengals (-3.5) vs. Buccaneers

This is a spot where I normally would think about selling high on the Bengals and buying low on the Bucs. I just can’t bring myself to do it though. I think the Bengals are going to trounce Tampa Bay on Sunday. Joe Burrow is 17-3 ATS in his last 20 games. The Bucs are the worst ATS team in the NFL this year at 3-9-1. If the Bucs QB wasn’t named Tom Brady this line would be up to a touchdown. Bengals roll.

San Francisco 49ers (9-4) vs. Seattle Seahawks (7-6)

The Spread: 49ers (-3.5)

This game comes down to basically one thing and that is do you trust Brock Purdy to win this game by more than a field goal? The spread is past the key number of 3 which is making me question who to take here. There is no question who the better team in this matchup is, but the uncertainty at QB for the 49ers makes this game a difficult pick. Are we going to see Brocktober come back down to earth after an impressive performance last week against the Bucs? Probably, but that doesn’t mean he still can’t win this game. The 49ers defense abused the Seahawks in their last matchup and I’m guessing they do that again. Now, I think the Seahawks will find a way to put up some offensive points in this one unlike the last time these teams met when all they could muster was a blocked kick returned for a touchdown. I just don’t see them scoring that many. The public is going to be all over San Francisco so I hate doing this, but I think Brock Purdy leans on his defense and is able to do enough for the Niners to sneak out of Seattle with a victory.

The Play: 49ers -3.5

Total (43.5)

This total is right around where the 49ers have lived all season. The Seahawks have hung some crooked numbers in games this season, but have also thrown in a couple low scoring slugfests to keep us honest. The Seahawks defense has been porous as of late and I think that helps us get the over here. If San Francisco can keep humming offensively and the Seahawks just give us something this over should hit. Here’s to getting a competitive high scoring Thursday game for once.

The Play: Over 43.5

Final Prediction

49ers 28 Seahawks 17

New England Patriots (6-6) vs. Arizona Cardinals (4-8)

The Spread: Patriots (-2)

Plain and simple this is a must win game for the Patriots. With a win they can vault themselves back into the playoff picture as the 7 seed. With a loss they risk falling completely out of the race with games against the Bengals, Dolphins, and Bills remaining. I’d like to think this team still has some nuts on them and fights to win this game. Arizona has been horrendous at home ATS with Kliff Kingsbury (12-18). I know the Patriots have had trouble with mobile QBs this season, but I just can’t envision a scenario where Kingsbury outcoaches Belichick in a game with the whole world watching. I’ll leave you with this, one team has something to play for and one is eyeballing the draft order. Take the team fighting for a playoff spot.

The Play: Patriots -2

Total (43.5)

Eight of Arizona’s games this season would’ve hit this total including their last six. The Patriots only would have been at this number five times so far this year. I like the over here. Defensively Arizona has not been good this year and the Patriots have been able to find success against subpar defenses. Think about how the offense looked against Minnesota. I think we see more of that in this game from New England. The Cardinals should be able to do their part in hitting this low total. If the Patriots can score into the mid-20’s this should hit.

The Play: Over 43.5

Final Prediction

Patriots 26 Cardinals 20