Week 17 is here people and I hope everyone had a Merry Christmas. As you’ll notice my gift to all of you was not doing any holiday picks this year and you’re welcome for that because our luck didn’t improve last week. Sure the Pats ended up winning outright for the Dawg which was a nice way to save the day but everything else was butt. First the Bills played with their food, dropping any chance the Lock had before the Texans would’ve blown it by allowing a career day to Genty. Then there’s the Over which literally hit but after some phantom flag on Jeffery Simmons the points were taken off the board and the Titans settled for a field goal. Even when our picks hit somehow the NFL finds a way to screw us. Unfortunately Brady’s Parlay of the Day didn’t fare any better but maybe he can snag a win down the stretch. Either way we’ve mercifully only got two weeks of the regular season left so let’s get into it.

Life’s Too Short to Bet the Under

Saints @ Titans (39.5)

I know I know I’m back picking the lowly Titans but after the NFL rigged the end of their last game it surely can’t happen again right? After all there’s an old saying in Tennessee, I know it’s in New England, probably in Tennessee that says, ‘Fool me once, shame on…shame on you. Fool me you can’t get fooled again.’ With those wise words how could this Over possibly come up short. So look for these two out of contention teams to put up enough points to keep me from looking like a fool again.

NO/TEN Over 39.5 (-108)

Fade Dawgs

Seahawks @ Panthers (+6.5)

Not gonna lie, picking a Dawg today wasn’t easy. Of course there will be an upset today but with this small slate because of all the Christmas games the options are limited. It doesn’t help that at first glance I liked a lot of the favorites too. But what are we gonna do, change the pick? That’s crazy talk. I mean come on, the formula has worked so well for us this season right? Sarcasm and lack of confidence aside this is the Dawg I liked the most. The Panthers have been the scrappiest underdogs this season with 8 of their wins coming as a Dawg. One more win and they break the record for most in a season. Now although I think Carolina is capable of winning outright to break that record we simply need them to keep it close. No denying the Seahawks are a wagon this year but every once in a while Darnold shows that he’s still got that Jet in him. So I’m betting that we get the Carolina Reapers and not the Sad Cats today.

Panthers +6.5 (+100)

Brady’s Parlay of the Day

The Parlay: Bills -1.5, Jaguars -5.5, 49ers -2.5

Let’s try for another win before the season ends. It’s been far too long and I’m tired of losing!

Leg 1: Bills over the Eagles. The Eagles already locked up the East and the Bills need to win to stay in the division race. Take the Bills -1.5.

Leg 2: The Philip Rivers experiment hasn’t worked and the Jags are on fire coming off a big win over Denver. Take the Jags -5.5.

Leg 3: Sunday Night Football features two playoff bound teams in the Bears and the 49ers. One team is a contender and the other is a pretender. Take the contender 49ers -2.5.

Brady’s Parlay of the Day: Bills -1.5, Jaguars -5.5, 49ers -2.5 (+452)

Bick’s Stone Cold Lock of the Century of the Week

Giants (-3) @ Raiders

Let’s just point out the obvious: the Lock has been anything but. In fact in some cases it’s been downright impressive how wrong we’ve been. So in order to avoid me being upset about a good team blowing it, why not look to a crap team to do something and if they fail oh well. Which brings us to the Tank Bowl. Both the Giants and the Raiders are the worst of the worst this season and somehow the schedule has aligned for them to play with the number 1 pick on the line. As it stands New York is in the driver’s seat for the 1st overall pick and Vegas seems aware. After annoyingly almost winning against the Texans someone in the organization well enough of that we’re shutting it down. They put Brock Bowers on IR with a sore knee and told Maxx Crosby he was done too. The latter didn’t seem all too thrilled about this decision which leads me to think that things could get extra ugly these last two games for Vegas. It’s not often teams so blatantly pack up shop for the season and I think the Giants are the type of team to go out and win a meaningless game even if it hurts their draft position. So join me in betting that the team that isn’t openly quitting will win and if they don’t we can at least laugh at how bad New York is.

Giants -3 (+100)

Week 16 is here people and much like the Commanders and the once mighty Chiefs we’re officially playing out the string here at Bick’s Picks. After another disappointing 1-2 week we’ve reached the point where a winning record is out of reach. Honestly I’d be more annoyed if we were close but recently I’ve been impressed with how bad our picks have been. Somehow back to back weeks we picked a team to win outright for the Lock who ended up getting shutout. Meanwhile although I feel like watching Grandpa Rivers lived up to the hype of course that game failed to hit the Over. Fortunately being a Boliever managed to save the week as the Broncos kept on streaking winning their 11th game in a row. As for our guest pick I’m sure he’d rather I skip their recap because Brady’s Parlay of the Day continues to be cursed. Now despite being guaranteed losers for the 2025 regular season there will be no white-flag 4th quarter punts so let’s get into. 

Life’s Too Short to Bet the Under

Chiefs @ Titans (37.5)

You might’ve thought I would’ve learned my lesson chasing a low total last week but here we are again. Frankly numbers like this are too low for me to ignore. Sure Mahomes is dead and sure the Titans are the Titans, but come on a total this low has to hit right? Tennessee is definitely one of the worst teams in the league, but they’ve been frisky lately putting up at least 24 points 3 of the last 4 weeks. On the other side I gotta think KC shows a little pride with Minshew under center and gives us something towards the total. I won’t deny that on paper Vegas is right to have this number this low but in the end I think it’s one that we don’t sweat out.

KC/TEN Over 37.5 (-110)

Fade Dawgs

Patriots (+3) @ Ravens

Despite the protests of Pats this pick is happening. Honestly I had to feature this game in some way as I’m watching with fans from both sides. And after I picked the Ravens to lose outright last week I can’t suddenly change my opinion that I think they’re cooked for 2025. Sure whistling past that Joe Burrow interview was on me, but New England in not Cinci. After blowing that game against Buffalo I think that Vrabel is gonna light a bonfire under everyone’s ass so Maye and company should come out swinging. Sure they’re likely to let Baltimore comeback in the 2nd Half but either way I think +3 is just enough to cover the outcome of this game. So let’s bet that this Patriots’ season truly isn’t fool’s gold.

Patriots +3 (+100)

Brady’s Parlay of the Day

The Parlay: Josh Allen ATD, Jayhmir Gibbs 110+ Rush & Receiving Yards, Drake Maye 250+ Passing Yards

Short and sweet this week the NFL doesn’t make any sense this year, I suck but I guess we will give this another go. 

Josh Allen Anytime TD 

Jahmyr Gibbs 110+ Rush & Receiving Yards

Drake Maye 250+ Passing Yards

There it is bet at your own risk.

Brady’s Parlay of the Day: Josh Allen ATD, Jahmyr Gibbs 110+ Rush & Receiving Yards, Drake Maye 250+ Passing Yards (+526)

Bick’s Stone Cold Locks of the Century of the Week

Bills (-6.5) @ Browns & Raiders @ Texans (-13.5) 

Yea yea I know alt spreads are fake bets but I really gotta make an effort to avoid the shutout three-peat. At this point in the season double digit spreads exist for a reason as the Bills and Texans should dominate their matchups. The Raiders are truly god awful and the Browns are still the Browns no matter how many people want to vote Shedeur to the Pro Bowl. I will say I think the Browns are more likely to make things interesting at home which is why I teased that spread a little more but in the end a touchdown should be plenty to cover. It certainly isn’t the sexiest bet but at this point we’re just trying to avoid being an embarrassment. However if either of these teams manage to get shutout I really gotta find a way to harness this bad luck I’ve got. So sorry in advance to Bills Mafia and the Texans’ fan for this one.

Parlay: Bills -6.5 & Texans -13.5 (+166) 

Week 15 is here people and let me just start by saying I’m officially done subjecting us all to the pain and inevitable disappointment that comes with betting on the 2025 Commanders. Whatever momentum or fight I thought this team had shown against Denver was clearly a mirage as they were embarrassingly shutout 31-0 by the Vikings. Needless to say they didn’t cover the -1.5 for the Lock and to add injury to insult Jayden hurt his elbow again. But enough about my misery and bad decisions we did actually hit a couple picks last week. First for the Over fading the public actually paid off as the Steelers and Ravens discount double checked their way to the total. Then for the Dawg the Jags beat the Colts so bad that Indy actually brought Philip Rivers out of retirement. A 2-1 week was real nice after the way Thanksgiving went for us but Bick’s Picks is gonna need several 3-0 weeks down the stretch if we want to get ourselves back respectability as we sit at 19-30-1 on the season. I wish I could say Brady’s Parlay of the Day was doing better but it’s also been tough sledding for them as their losing streak continued. Definitely not a banner year for us but honestly I’m not sure anyone predicted this would be the way this season would go. But we’re certainly not gonna pack it in and unprecedented levels of parity won’t stop us from enjoying what this bizarre football season has left to offer so let’s get into it.

Life’s Too Short to Bet the Under

Colts @ Seahawks (41.5)

Last week we were rewarded for fading the public which has temporarily put the Over back in my good graces. However this week there isn’t a glaring Under that everyone is on except for of course the Commanders vs Giants game. Sure that 46.5 total is reachable with those defenses on the field but after the stink I made about not betting Washington I gotta at least keep my word for a week. Which in turn led me to the fateful decision to pick this Over. Frankly because of Philip Rivers’ inexplicable return to football this game had to be featured in some way. Maybe I should simply bet Seahawks -13.5 because there’s no way the Colts can actually keep this close with a literal grandpa under center but here we are. Seahawks should certainly do their part getting to this Over and call me crazy if you want but I think Indy shows up enough to at the very least make this entertaining. So throw on your bolo ties because we’re gonna be locked into this one.

IND/SEA Over 41.5 (-112)

Fade Dawgs

Packers @ Broncos (ML)

I’m sure my fellow degenerates have noticed that Week 15 is packed full of big spreads. We’ve got 6 spreads over a touchdown, 5 of which are in the double digits. That said there’s a good reason that these spreads are so big as most of these matchups feature backup QBs, some of which literally came from retirement this week. For that reason I couldn’t really back any of those big road Dawgs with confidence instead we’re Bolievers again this week. Vegas essentially has this one as a coin flip and that’s a little surprising considering it’s at Mile High and because Denver has won 10 straight games. Sure they’ve all seemed to come down to the wire but here at Bick’s Picks we also like to live dangerously. Not to mention I’m a known Jordan Love hater so this pick was practically inevitable. Here’s hoping the Broncos keep on streaking otherwise my bad Pip.

Broncos ML (+102)

Brady’s Parlay of the Day

The Parlay: Colts Team Total Under 14.5, Patriots ML, Davante Adams ATD

Nothing has made sense lately in the NFL and it’s been a struggle to piece together a successful parlay. And now we are going into a week where 44 year old Philip Rivers who has been out of the league for a few years is starting for the Colts? Honestly I’m a little worried for him coming out of this game alive. He looked cooked at the end of his last season and somehow the Colts think he is going to be better now? I don’t understand but that’s where we are starting with leg 1 this week. The Colts offense is going to struggle against Seattle so let’s take their team under 14.5 points.

For leg 2 the Bills who have been so inconsistent week to week are favored on the road against the first place Patriots? Make that make sense. Take the Pats moneyline as we will be celebrating a division title tomorrow for the first time since 2019. We are back baby!

Last leg will be an anytime touchdown for Davante Adams. The guy has been a touchdown machine this year and I expect this game between the Rams and Lions to be a shootout. Lock in Adams for at least one TD.

Brady’s Parlay of the Day: Colts Team Total Under 14.5, Patriots ML, Davante Adams ATD (+483)

Bick’s Stone Cold Lock of the Century of the Week

Ravens @ Bengals (ML)

Since I already apologized to my cousin Pip for picking the Broncos I might as well apologize to my friend JG for picking against the Ravens. With that out of the way let the slander commence because I think that Baltimore is absolutely cooked. Lamar just hasn’t been the same since coming back as he can’t get it going through the air and when he’s running it looks like his IBS is acting up. Not to mention on the other side of the ball their defense is banged up and simply can’t get stops when they need them most. Meanwhile for Cinci sure they proved they’re still the Bungles with how that Bills game ended but unlike Lamar, Joe Burrow has been slinging it since he came back from injury. The Bengals defense has also been a bit feisty lately showing some pride after being a doormat for most of the season. There’s always a chance John Harbaugh can rally the troops but after the last two weeks I think Burrow delivers the final nail in the coffin.

Bengals ML (+130)

Week 14 is here people and let me just start off this week with a congratulations to my cousin Pip and his lady Becca as they ended up being ones to leave Landover last Sunday night with a win. Sure the game ended better for the Broncos but it’s hard for me to complain too much about being in attendance for an OT thriller that came down to the last play. It was certainly a memorable experience for us and one that I wouldn’t want to forget. However, something I continue to wish I could forget is all of my stupid bets. Much like my Commanders this 2025 betting season has been one to forget as we farted out our second 0-3 week. Things looked bad right away as the Cardinals and Bucs struggled through a scoreless 1st quarter which essentially killed the Over before it had a chance. Then we had the Dawg which was just dumb because I backed Rodgers and I hate that guy. Lastly we got the Lock and my apologies to the Jets because they did their part and more. Unfortunately for us I also had Cleveland covering +7.5, which thanks to some special teams blunders ended up being a mistake. Sure I could blame being distracted by the holiday or by attending the game but I’m not here to give you excuses I’m here to give you results. And like it or not we’ve only got 5 weeks left to right the ship so without further ado let’s get into it.

Life’s Too Short to Bet the Under

Steelers @ Ravens (43.5)

I’m gonna admit the Over is starting to annoy me especially after last week. I was so sure of the Bucs vs Cardinals Over and that crap felt dead on arrival. It’s still one of my favorite bets but maybe because it’s a down year for the NFL but they’ve just seemed harder than ever. I’m sure it doesn’t help that half the teams in the league just have to make it to the 50 before settling for some 60+ yarder but right now I’m just avoiding saying that I hated all the totals this week. Everyone I looked at I just kept coming up with reasons that it was gonna be an Under. Which kinda sorta led me to this game. I don’t know why but I couldn’t avoid betting this Over when everyone says it’ll be an Under. Sure I got burned by Rodgers last week and sure Lamar looks kinda stinky playing hurt but I can’t help myself. So logic be damned, we’re betting this Over because life is too short to do otherwise.

PIT/BAL Over 43.5 (-112)

Fade Dawgs

Colts @ Jaguars (ML)

For as much as I complain about and deride the AFC South I sure have been betting on them a lot this season. This time though I swear it’s different! I certainly won’t try and hype up Trevor Lawrence lord knows that goober is gonna do something stupid. The main reason we’ve had this matchup circled is that the Colts simply don’t beat the Jags on the road. Indy hasn’t won a game in Jacksonville since 2014 and a streak like that is right up our alley. Not to mention Daniel Jones is playing on a broken leg and finally looking like the pumpkin we know him to be. You can take the +1.5 if you want but I’m betting Liam Coen will have that Duuuuuval grin after the game.

Jaguars ML (+105)

Brady’s Parlay of the Day

The Parlay: Jayden Daniels 220+ Pass Yards, Quinshon Judkins ATD, Puka Nacua 100+ Receiving Yards

Let’s face facts BPOTD has sucked over the past month or so and it’s time to shake things up this week. We are not picking winners and losers but I’m going to give you three props that I think will hit this Sunday.

First one will be Jayden Daniels to pass for over 220 yards in his return to the field for the Commanders. A lot riding on Washington this week as I am also going with them in my survivor pool as I see them fired up to get a win after that heartbreaking loss last week to Denver.

Leg 2 will be an Anytime TD from Quinshon Judkins as the Browns face the putrid Titans defense. Judkins has 7 TDs so far on the season so look for him to get number 8 on Sunday.

Finally we have over 100 receiving yards for Puka Nacua. The Rams need a win badly after their loss to the Panthers last week dropped them out of the 1 seed. Look for Stafford to air it out against Arizona and Puka should get plenty of that action.

Brady’s Parlay of the Day: Jayden Daniels 220+ Pass Yards, Quinshon Judkins ATD, Puka Nacua 100+ Receiving Yards (+689)

Bick’s Stone Cold Lock of the Century of the Week

Commanders (-1.5) @ Vikings

Jayden is back. JJ McCarthy blows. Washington should win and frankly needs to win. This season is lost but you gotta find something to build on going into the offseason. Some will complain that I just bet my team and that’s why Bick’s Picks record is what it is but being loyal to a fault is kind of our MO. So if you don’t like it, tough titties. Hey most of you fade us anyways or you could bet the Seahawks -6.5 because that’s what it would’ve been otherwise. But honestly after the effort the Commanders showed on SNF and with the kid coming back I really like us today so keep that confidence in mind if you decide to #RaiseHail with us.

Commanders -1.5 (-102)

Week 13 is here people and for better or worse we’re delivering these picks from the DMV as the Bickford clan is on location for a Sunday Night showdown between Washington and Denver. Some of you might be wondering why my family and I would subject ourselves to this but you gotta understand we made this fateful choice before the season and at the time it seemed like a fun thing to do together Thanksgiving weekend. I’m sure we’ll still have a good time sharing the experience and at the very least since my cousin Pip and his lady are Broncos fans someone will be leaving Landover with a win. Now I mentioned Thanksgiving but honestly wish I hadn’t because all we did was lose money. The Feasting Favorites parlay was a complete flop as every single favorite not only failed to cover they lost outright. As for the Triducken it was dead on arrival as Jahmyr Gibbs let us down immediately only for Rice and Henry to score the 1st TDs in the later games. Needless to say the Lions are on my shit list for the next few years as the unwanted tradition of them ruining Thanksgiving can’t be allowed to continue. Now as always we don’t dwell on our losses here we chase them so let’s get into it.

Life’s Too Short to Bet the Under

Cardinals @ Buccaneers (44.5)

As I mentioned earlier we’ll be attending SNF and because of how bad Washington has been I’d been scratching my head as to why we weren’t flexed out for another game. That was of course until I saw the Sunday slate. That’s because unless you’re a weirdo AFC South fan nothing is really that appealing aside from the Bills/Steelers game but we’ll talk about that later. Right now we gotta sift through a slate full of ugly matchups, bad weather and low totals to find some scoring. Now personally this matchup isn’t sexy at first glance but the reason I’m here is because I expect both of these offenses to show up. The Bucs thankfully have Baker playing and they also should have the long awaited return of Bucky Irving so I like them to bounce back after being shut down by the Rams. On the other side I’m not gonna try and hype up Jacoby Brissett but I gotta acknowledge that he’s at least made Arizona frisky since Kyler’s soft benching. Sure they’re not winning games but they’ve been good for at least 21 points since he took over Week 6 so hopefully that should be enough to get us to our total. So fingers crossed we found the scoring gem in the pile turds.

ARI/TB Over 44.5 (-110)

Fade Dawgs

Bills @ Steelers (+3)

I teased this matchup earlier and honestly felt a little obligated to bet on this game in some way because based on records it’s the game of the day. That sense of obligation aside, I do actually really like the Steelers in this spot. This feels like one of those games where Tomlin rallies the troops after a tough loss, not to mention the Bills stink on the road. Sure the Bills are trying to bounce back but that might be hard to do since they simply haven’t been the same team on the road. The offense struggles away from Orchard Park and their defense home or away has had trouble stopping pretty much anyone. Sure I have no love for Rodgers but he should be able to dink and dunk his way down the field enough times to keep this game close. Plus if Josh Allen is doing the push all the buttons thing there’s a chance that Pitt just wins this one outright.

Steelers +3 (-105)

Brady’s Parlay of the Day

The Parlay: 49ers -5.5, Buccaneers -3.5, Broncos -5.5

I continued to let down this week as the Seahawks let up a garbage time TD to ruin the cover and the Bucs were a complete no show on Sunday night. Hopefully this will be the week we turn it around.

Let’s start with the 49ers vs the Browns. Cleveland looked decent last week in Shedeur’s debut but that was against the Raiders. This week is a different story against San Fran. I like the Niners by at least a touchdown in this one. Take them at -5.5.

Leg two I’m going to give the Bucs another chance in a get right game against the Cardinals. Mayfield is on track to play and the Bucs really need this game. Take them with the spread at – 3.5.

Last of all we have the Broncos and Commanders on Sunday night. The Broncos need the win to keep pace with the Pats atop the AFC and with the Commanders still without Jayden Daniels I expect Denver to win relatively easily in this one. I apologize to my boss here on Bick’s Picks, who will be in attendance to root on his team but I have to go with Denver in this one at -5.5.

Brady’s Parlay of the Day: 49ers -5.5, Buccaneers-3.5, Broncos -5.5 (+558)

Bick’s Stone Cold Lock of the Century of the Week

Parlay: Jets +7.5 and Browns +7.5

Yup that’s right I’m really mixing things up for the Lock this week. After a big day for the Dawgs on Thursday I feel like it’s shaping up to be a big Dawg weekend. Now the true degenerates will immediately notice that I moved the lines and I know some of you will dismiss the pick for that alone but frankly I don’t care. Honestly I was tempted to pick the Dawgs to win outright, that’s how good I feel. Which is also why I had the self awareness to hedge my plums and provide ya’ll with a less risky bet. First I’m riding with Jets because I simply gotta fade Kirk. I’ve seen first hand how bad a windy game at the Jersey Swamp can go for him and on the other side I’m more confident backing the Jets with Tyrod under center. As for the Browns just like last week I’m riding with them because of their game changing defense. I saw how Purdy struggled against the Panthers so I can only imagine what crappy weather and Myles Garrett will do to him. Now again I know what I’m trying to sell you which is why I’m telling you to pick alt spreads. I also realize I’m fading BPOTD but he picked Denver so that paraly doomed anyways right? Right??

Parlay: Jets +7.5 and Browns +7.5 (+120)

Thanksgiving is here people, which once again means family, food, football, hopefully some financial gain and of course Madden quotes. Now some would think a Washington fan like myself wouldn’t have much to be thankful for this year but no matter how much my team stinks, Turkey Day is always the best day. Nothing can beat a day that specifically revolves around eating till you’re uncomfortably full and watching football all day. As always, before I get ahead of myself I do have last week to catch up on. Unfortunately for our friend Matthew that means recapping another BPOTD that came up short, but parlay pain something that I’m all too familiar with. So in the spirit of the holiday I’ll be giving him the day off as the Triducken makes its long awaited return. BPOTD wasn’t the only bet that fell short as the Pats couldn’t quite cover the lofty -13.5 we had picked for the Lock. However not all was lost as the Lions and Jameis hit the Over with ease. Followed by Shedeur and the Browns winning outright for the Dawg in his debut as a starter. But we don’t wanna pat ourselves on the back too much because like the late, great John Madden would say: “Self-praise is for losers. Be a winner. Stand for something. Always have class, and be humble.” Words to live by and it’s exactly what we’re gonna do. So without further delay fill up your plates and let’s get into it.

Feasting Favorites

Lions ML, Chiefs ML and Ravens ML

For those of you new to our Thanksgiving format you might be surprised to see no Dawgs today but we like to switch it up for the holiday. The reason for that is because it’s historically a day when the favorites thrive. Since 2004 favorites are a whopping 51-9 straight up and 40-20 against the spread. Now with numbers like that you’d think we would be cleaning up on this day every year but for the last couple seasons we’ve been burned by Dan Campbell’s ham eating ass coming up short of covering. So instead of rolling the dice on spreads I’m thinking we just parlay all favorites moneylines together. Is it the sexiest pick? No, but honestly it’s one I feel pretty good about. Now if you’re feeling bold I will leave the spread parlay down there just in case but we’ll be sticking to the ML. Either way you wanna bet it here’s hoping we get another chalky Turkey Day.

ML Parlay: Lions ML, Chiefs ML and Ravens ML (+220)

BOLD Parlay: Lions -2.5, Chiefs -3.5, Ravens -7 (+544)

Touchdown Triducken

Anytime TD Parlay: Jahmyr Gibbs, Derrick Henry & Rashee Rice

That’s right people it’s back! Sure the Triducken hasn’t always been our most profitable bet but it’s always held a special place in my heart. As a homage to the Turkducken and Madden it can’t be beat. Sure it typically ends up being more like Subway’s abomination the Turhamken but here’s hoping this year it’s a winner rather than a crappy sandwich with soggy croutons. So after that optimism let’s get into who’s hitting pay dirt and I’m gonna keep it simple. Since we’ve already backed all the favorites, why not bet on the players with the best odds to score for them? Seems almost too simple but honestly it’s a bet I really like. I feel like Gibbs and Henry are locks given their workload and the Cowboys secondary bound to give up some big plays. You could maybe throw Kelce or Hunt in there for Chiefs instead but personally I’m gonna have my turkey with a side of Rice.

Anytime TD Triducken: Jahmyr Gibbs, Derrick Henry & Rashee Rice (+282)

Week 12 is here people and I don’t know who needs a bye week more, the Washington Commanders or us at Bick’s Picks because despite our best efforts it continues to be a tough season. Mercifully the NFL has at least given us a break from Washington football but like it or not there’s no week off from the picks. As always though before we present our ramblings on how to lose your beer money we gotta dwell on the failures of last week. Unfortunately for our guest pick, Brady’s Parlay of the Day continues to be included in that category as they can’t seem to find the winning combination. Meanwhile Bick’s Picks woke up extra early only to fumble ourselves to a 1-2-1 week. Adding another Over for the Spain game just doubled the disappointment as OT couldn’t get Washington the win or even get us to that total. Then there was the Lock that honestly really should’ve been a hit but the Rams just had to let the Seahawks get that backdoor cover despite 4 interceptions by Sam Darnold. Before that win was stolen from us the Dawg was also robbed as the Packers gave us our first push of the season by succeeding on a 2 point conversion in the final minutes to deny us Giants +7. Now technically last week wasn’t a complete loss as we did atleast get an easy Over win thanks to the Bucs/Bills shootout. Honestly I feel like Week 11 perfectly summed up the kind of betting season it’s been for us, the good, the bad and the ugly mixed with a dash of snatching defeat from the claws of victory. This week though perhaps having my miserable team on bye will allow me to see this slate a little more clearly so let’s get into it.

Life’s Too Short to Bet the Under

Giants @ Lions (50.5)

Now I know I said last week would likely be the first and last time we bet on New York but they technically didn’t lose our bet so we’re back again! Obviously the main reason we’re on this game is Detroit, as I’m expecting them to do most of the heavy lifting to get us to this total. After they laid an egg on the road in Philly I expect them to bounce back at home. That’s kinda been the Lions M.O. this season and I expect that to continue against a Giants team that always leaves the backdoor open. Don’t get me wrong they’ve been a scrappy team and at the very least have done their best to make things entertaining despite coming up short time and time again. So even though I expect a Detroit rebound to be where most of our points come from I also expect Jameis and the G-Men to put a couple on the board.

NYG/DET Over 50.5 (-120)

Fade Dawgs

Browns (+3) @ Raiders

One of our readers texted me this morning asking if they were crazy for liking the dogs today but I’m not sure if they were intending on being this crazy. Sure the play could be the comically low 35.5 total but instead we’re riding with Shedeur in his debut as a starter. All jokes aside, the real reason we’re believing in Cleveland is that they have the best unit on the field. Myles Garrett and that defense have managed to keep them in seemingly every game even against superior competition. Today however they face the Raiders and I’m not sure that Geno survives this game. Who knows maybe picking this Dawg is too crazy but hopefully we’re crazy like a fox not stupider.

Browns +3 (+100)

Brady’s Parlay of the Day

The Parlay: Chiefs ML, Seahawks -12.5, Buccaneers +7

Another 1-2 week for us last week, it’s time to right the ship this week.

Leg 1, the Colts vs Chiefs. Is the Chiefs dynasty really over? I’m not going to lie, I’ve loved watching their underwhelming season so far as they sit at 5-5. I however am a realist and don’t think they are going away without a fight, I see them taking care of business at home this week in a close one with Indy. Take the Chiefs moneyline.

Leg 2, in a game that no one is interested in we have the Seahawks and the Titans. Tennessee blows like really really blows. I expect Seattle to take care of them easy. Take Seattle with the spread.

Finally leg number 3, we are going back to the night game which has served us well in prior weeks. We have the Bucs vs Rams in what should be a good game between two first place teams in the NFC. The spread in this one favors the Rams by 7 but I expect a closer game than that so let’s take the Bucs +7 in this one to finish off our parlay.

Brady’s Parlay of the Day: Chiefs ML, Seahawks -12.5, Buccaneers +7 (+450)

Bick’s Stone Cold Lock of the Century of the Week

Patriots (-13.5) @ Bengals

Now our loyal readers, especially the Pats fans should recognize this alt spread. Week 1 last season I disrespected New England by predicting that a Burrow led Bengals would blow doors and start the Mayo era with resounding defeat. I think we all know how that went. However in the end even though I was right about Mayo wow wow wow what a difference a year makes. Vrabel skipped right past the rebuild and right now has this team poised to secure a playoff bye. Now I know playing with alt spreads can be a recipe for disaster and I’m sure some will complain I’m a mush but take this for the compliment that it is. Frankly there’s no reason New England shouldn’t beat up on a Flacco led Bengals that has no Ja’Mar Chase. On top of that we all know the Bengals defense is arguably the worst in the league especially with no Trey Hendrickson. So even though I deep down hate to say it, the Patriots Maye be good.

Patriots -13.5 (+157)

Week 11 is here people and we’re coming to you early since we’ll be locked into the NFL’s historic debut in Spain this morning. Now I’ll admit I wasn’t always a fan but I’ve warmed up to the NFL Europe games. It’s nice to have the option to quite literally watch football all day long. Sure these morning games aren’t always the best product but I appreciate them like a prelim card for a UFC event. Let’s not get ahead of ourselves though we’ve got last week to quickly dwell on. Week 10 was by no means a losing week but even though we went 2-1 it kinda felt like one. Sure the Pats won it for the Dawg against the Bucs but I can’t say that I enjoyed being right about what Detroit did to Washington. The Lions certainly seemed like they were trying to send a message and I guess my silver lining is that they didn’t hit the total all by themselves. Now as for actual loss the Lock, it turns out I was actually a week off because the Panthers were the sad cats all along. It also seems like parlays might just be cursed on this blog as Brady’s Parlay of the Day has hit a rough patch, fingers crossed today he turns things around. But that’s enough about last week there’s plenty of wins to be had on this slate so grab a coffee and a churro and let’s get into it.

Life’s Too Short to Bet the Under Early Bird Edition

Commanders @ Dolphins (47.5)

Buccaneers @ Bills (46.5)

Yup that’s right TWO Overs. The one benefit of being up early for this NFL Europe game is that I can actually tell you to bet on it! Now I wouldn’t be so bold as to tell you to pick Washington, I’m far too pessimistic right now but I expect a fair bit of scoring in Madrid. Sure both teams are ass but we got a couple flying Hawaiians at quarterback looking to put on a show for the world and I think Mariota and Tua will do enough to get us to that total. Now the reason there’s a second Over is I expect some people to miss the early game. I can forgive people for not being locked into a matchup of 3-7 disappointments. However, a game that everyone should try to watch is Bucs vs Bills. This slate is full of good matchups and this might be one of the more entertaining ones. Both are winning teams with championship aspirations coming off losses so you gotta think both are eager to right the ship. Either way we’re obviously rooting for a day full of touchdowns so let’s hope these two early matchups deliver.

WAS/MIA Over 47.5 (-110)

TAM/BUF Over 46.5 (-112)

Fade Dawgs

Packers @ Giants (+7)

I’m gonna be honest this might be the first and last time that you see us bet the Giants here at Bick’s Picks but we gotta support Jaboo. Now that Daboll is finally gone New York is doing the right thing and giving the people what they want. The #FreeJameis posts have paid off and we also get the chance to scratch that “head coach just got fired itch” so you know I had to be on this game. Add that with the fact something is just off about the Packers. Personally I’ve always thought Jordan Love was stinky but good lord that display against the Eagles on MNF was just gross. Now that I’ve said this there’s a good chance the Pack will finally wake up but at least we can count on Jameis to make it entertaining.

Giants +7 (-105)

Brady’s Parlay of the Day

The Parlay: Buccaneers +5.5, SEA/LAR Over 48.5, 49ers ML

My apologies, I have really sucked the past two weeks going 1/3 each time and I’m going to try my hardest to get us back in the win column this week. 

The 1st leg is the Bucs vs Bills, this is shaping up to be a really competitive game this weekend which makes me wonder why Tampa is getting 5.5 points here. Buffalo has been inconsistent over the past month or so and Tampa is coming off a loss to the best team in the league. Both teams need this game and I’m feeling a close one either way, take the Bucs with the spread. 

Leg number 2, another game that shapes up to be a great to watch as the Rams and Seahawks face off for first place in the NFC West. Two very good offenses here makes me think about a lot of points being put up in this one. Let’s take the Over here at 48.5 

Final leg of the day and we are staying in the NFC West. The 49ers face the Cardinals who are still without Kyler Murray and now have added Marvin Harrison Jr to the list of players who will miss this game. The Niners get Brock Purdy back this week who could be a little rusty but I still think they get the job done against Arizona. Take the Niners moneyline.

Brady’s Parlay of the Day: Buccaneers +5.5, SEA/LAR Over 48.5, 49ers ML (+456)

Bick’s Stone Cold Lock of the Century of the Week

Seahawks @ Rams (-3)

Last week was definitely one of those times where I got too cute with the Lock. I spoke with several of you and I had no explanation for why I really thought the Panthers would cover. That said I’m not gonna claim I have rational thinking behind half my picks. I mean you read the Dawg today didn’t you? But I digress this small tangent has nothing to do with today’s pick because I can tell you why I like the Rams and that’s Matt Stafford. Now admittedly some of you know I’m not his biggest fan but I can’t deny how good he’s been this season. He’s also why I give the edge to LA over Seattle because I certainly trust him more than I do Sam Darnold. The former Jet certainly looks much better than his days of seeing ghosts but I think Jared Verse and company could be just the defense to bring back some of those old bad habits. Now I’ll admit I wish the line was still the -2.5 it opened at but the -3 is better than the -3.5 I was seeing yesterday so let’s just hope Puka and Davante score enough it doesn’t matter.

Rams -3 (-120)

Week 10 is here people and frankly I’d like to pretend that Week 9 never happened. Sure I enjoyed some perfect football weather while attending the Pats game but that was clearly all the fun I was allowed to have that day. Not only did we have our first 0-3 week here at Bick’s Picks, the nightmare season for the Washington Commanders continued. Yet another disgraceful loss in primetime and worst of all the injuries simply won’t stop piling up. It was undoubtedly gonna be a tougher season but this has been painful to watch. So obviously the Dawg didn’t hit as my blind faith in Jayden was not rewarded. Before that brutal loss the Lock and the Over also let us down. I got no excuses for the Over, I don’t know what I was thinking with the Texans. As for the Lock I guess this is also the season where I shouldn’t bet the Chiefs because whenever I do they flop. Unfortunately our losing has been contagious as Brady’s Parlay of the Day also came up short giving us all a winless Week 9. So like I said earlier, why don’t we do ourselves a favor by pretending last week never happened and let’s get into it.

Life’s Too Short to Bet the Under

Lions @ Commanders (49.5)

Full disclosure I had the Ravens game here first but I simply can’t shake the feeling that Dan Campbell is gonna try to destroy Washington. Even though it feels like a lifetime ago I certainly remember how much fun I had watching us beat the Lions in the playoffs so you can guarantee Detroit remembers the loss. Add that with the fact they’re actually coming off a close loss to the Vikings this is a big rebound spot with a chance to send a message. Now you won’t see me outright pick against Washington unlike SOME people but this is about as close as you’ll see me get. I do think Mariota will move the offense some and hopefully add to the total but who knows maybe Goff drops a 50 burger on us. Hey maybe the Commanders will put on an inspired performance for the President but in the end it’s more likely Donald changes his mind about having our stadium named after him.

Over 49.5 (-108)

Fade Dawgs

Patriots (+2.5) @ Buccaneers

Given my luck picking games this season I’m sure Pats fans won’t love this pick but frankly I’m flattered you think Bick’s Picks has that much of an impact. Truthfully this is the pick for 3 reasons: 1. I honestly had no clue what other Dawg to choose (I wasn’t picking the Niners you’re welcome Jesse), 2. It’s arguably the game of the week and most importantly 3. I think New England can win this game. Drake Maye has been phenomenal putting together a season reminiscent of what JD5 did last season. Much like my QB there is some concern about the amount on his plate and all the hits the kid takes but right now it’s all about the results. Winners of 6 straight it’s hard to not see them keep rolling to make it 7. That said, winning won’t be easy because Tampa also has Baker playing at an MVP level despite dealing injuries issues as bad as Washington’s. But that’s also where I give New England the edge in the end because even though they’re coming off the bye the Bucs still aren’t 100% especially on offense. Oh and since ya’ll know how much I love silly stats I gotta share that Todd Bowles is 0-3 off the bye in Tampa and 1-6 all time as a head coach. Even with a sexy stat like that the ML has been so unkind to the Dawg so we’re gonna take the points just in case they’re firing the cannons in a close one at Raymond James.

Patriots +2.5 (+100)

Brady’s Parlay of the Day

The Parlay: Jaguars -1.5, Bills -9.5, Lions -8.5 (+662)

Last week was the worst week for BPOTD so far as only 1/3 legs hit. We’ll try to make up for that this week and get us back into the win column.

First leg the Jags vs the Texans without CJ Stroud. The Texans have been bad with their franchise QB, I can’t imagine it will get any better with Davis Mills this week. Take the Jags to cover a small spread on the road at 1.5

Second leg will feature a matchup of inferior AFC East teams now that the Pats are back at the top where they belong, as the second place Buffalo Bills take on the dumpster fire that is the Miami Dolphins. Look for the Bills to win by a bunch in this one and take them at -8.5.

Lastly, I want to start by saying that this pick is not a shot at Andrew and his beloved Commanders, but I couldn’t resist taking the Lions this week with Daniels out for Washington. The spread is only 7.5 and I expect the Lions to come out fired up after their postseason loss to Washington last year. Take Detroit to cover the spread.

Brady’s Parlay of the Day: Jaguars -1.5, Bills -9.5, Lions -8.5 (+662)

Bick’s Stone Cold Lock of the Century of the Week

Saints @ Panthers (-5.5)

Your eyes don’t deceive you! We’ve another Lock appearance by the Carolina Reapers. The Panthers have been a frisky team all season and despite having to survive a brief Dalton stint they’re still a surprising 5-4. Meanwhile for the Saints the Tyler Shough era has begun and he looked about as good as he probably could against the Rams but today I think he struggles. Add that with the fact the Saints were sellers at the deadline. Sure didn’t have a fire sale like the Jets but they sold enough that I think they’re a worse team than a week ago. Chances are I’m off a week picking this team but the way I see it if they can win at Lambeau they should be able to cover at home. Meow.

Panthers -5.5 (-108)

Week 9 is here people and I don’t know about the rest of you but I appreciated the extra hour of sleep we were given back by Daylight Savings time. Now although I’m well rested what I really wish I could get back was our picks from last week as once again we missed the mark. Bick’s Picks once again farted out another 1-2 week and it started with the Dawg, which honestly was doomed from the start after I made a point to highlight how 1pm underdogs have struggled I picked one anyways. Then I followed it up by foolishly picking the Bengals even though I knew the Jets would finally win one after the sudden passing of Nick Mangold. Meanwhile things weren’t any better for Brady’s Parlay of the Day as Caleb Williams was who I thought he was and the Ravens didn’t let him off the hook. Now not all was lost the Giants and Eagles managed to hit the Over for us even though the football gods might’ve sacrificed Skattebo’s leg to get there. As a result October ended up being a .500 month for us here Bick’s Picks but we strive for better than the Jeff Fisher standard so time to put spooky season behind us and let’s get into it.

Life’s Too Short to Bet the Under

Broncos @ Texans (40.5)

I don’t know how this keeps happening but I keep talking myself into betting on the Texans this year. I feel like in general I just avoid the AFC South because ew, but here we are again. Now of course this pick isn’t because of Houston specifically it’s all about that total. The 40.5 is the lowest of the day and frankly the main reason I’m on this game. Attractive numbers aside I’m also a Bo-liever. I think that the Denver offense can do enough to get us to get us at least half the number and with Surtain out it’s likely that Stroud and company won’t be complete no-shows either. Here’s hoping my instincts are right and this is an Over we hit with ease.

Over 40.5 (-105)

Fade Dawgs

Seahawks @ Commanders (ML)

Apologies in advanced if these picks seem a little brief because we’ll actually be in Foxboro for a little football today thanks to friend of the blog Ben. That said the picks should still be quality even if the write-ups are short. With that said: Jayden. That’s the pick that’s the reason. I don’t care if it’s a night game, I don’t care if you wanna fade the pick, I don’t care if you think we’re cooked, that’s the pick. I had unwavering belief in the kid last year and even though this season is off to a less than ideal start I gotta believe that no matter the circumstance JD5 gives us a chance to win. So buckle up it’s time to try and #RaiseHail in primetime again. 

Commanders ML (+130)

Brady’s Parlay of the Day

The Parlay: Pats -4.5, Lions -8.5, Bills ML

We came up one leg short last week as we found out Da Bears are a pretender and couldn’t even beat the Lamar Jacksonless Ravens. My apologies for believing in that sad excuse for a football team and I’ll try to make up for it this week.

Patriots continue to roll and face the Falcons this week at home. I’m expecting them to continue the hot streak and take care of business against Atlanta. Take the Pats -5.5

JJ McCarthy comes back for the Vikings this week against Detroit, as Wentz goes down for the year. Maybe Minnesota should have paid Darnold after all as he is looking good in Seattle. I expect the Lions to roll in this one, take Detroit -8.5

Final leg features what shapes up to be the best game this week. AFC championship rematch between Buffalo and Kansas City. Good thing for the Bills is it’s a regular season game and they will be allowed to win this one! I expect a close game here but I like the Bill as a dog at home. Take Buffalo ML.

Brady’s Parlay of the Day: Pats -4.5, Lions -8.5, Bills ML (+608)

Bick’s Stone Cold Lock of the Century of the Week

Chiefs (-2.5) @ Bills

Well it was bound to happen eventually but Brady and I finally have ourselves our first fade-off. Now some of you may have thought I have some hand in the BPOTD but his picks are his own so this day was likely inevitable. Now as for the pick itself I’m going with the team and the quarterback that I also feel is inevitable. Sure the Chiefs have been up and down this year but Mahomes has still been great as ever and now that they got Rashee Rice back they’ve really hit their stride. On the flip side I don’t know if it’s because he got married or what but something also slightly off about Josh Allen and the Bills this year. It might just be that they’re shook by the Patriots quick turn around, but my plums say that Kansas City pulls this one out just like they always do against Buffalo in the playoffs.

Chiefs -2.5 (-105)