I’m up against the clock again this week so unfortunately this will be another shorter post. Last week we went 4-0-1 on Sunday though so maybe the shorter posts are good luck? Let’s find out.

Favorite

Rams (-1.5) vs. Cardinals

I know Matthew Stafford might not play, but this is a bet on Sean McVay beating Kliff Kingsbury for what feels like the 1,000th time. Just like taking Shanahan over McVay is a set it and forget it type of move so is McVay over Kingsbury. Matt Stafford or John Wolford? I don’t care give me the Rams.

Charlie Murphy’s Habitual Line Stepper of the Week (Underdog)

Seahawks (+2.5) vs. Buccaneers

The Bucs have burned me for weeks now so I’m turning my back on them. That’s a surefire way to know you’re going to lose a bet, but Geno and the boys have been machine’s ATS this year. Not to mention they’ve been the better team so far this season as well. Seahawks win outright (just like last week) in Germany.

Over

Bears vs. Lions (48.5)

So we know the Lions are an over team, but are the Bears an over team now too? They just might be and the Lions defense will only help them to score points. My man Justin Fields has been electric as of late and that shouldn’t slow down on Sunday. I think we might have a little shootout between a couple of perennial NFC North basement dwellers on our hands.

Under

Chiefs vs. Jaguars (51)

The Jaguars should never be in a game with a total over 50 points. That’s my logic here. I understand the Chiefs are the Chiefs, but their offense hasn’t been quite as explosive this year as it has been in the past without Tyreek Hill. We might have to sweat this one out, but the under is the play.

The Definitely Not My Lock of the Week Bonus Pick

Browns (+3.5) vs. Dolphins

Cleveland has been able to hang around with some good teams this year and I’m banking on them doing that again. While Miami has looked good this year they have also squeaked by a couple of teams including the Bears last week. I just think that half a point changes everything. I can see the Browns losing by a field goal here and still covering. This will be a close game, I’ll take the points.

Atlanta Falcons (4-5) vs. Carolina Panthers (2-7)

The Spread: Falcons (-2.5)

At first glance you would think the Falcons are easy money here, but it’s never that simple in divisional games. These teams just had an absolute shootout two weeks ago that the Falcons were lucky to eek out. This line was at 3 and has now come down to 2.5. I’m assuming that means money is coming in on Carolina, but it makes me like Atlanta even more because they can cover with a field goal. Neither of these teams are good, but there is one that is still very much alive in the divisional race and that’s Atlanta. They have to take care of business against inferior opponents and that’s what the Panthers are. PJ Walker will make the start for the Panthers, but regardless of who lines up under center for Carolina you still have to ride with the Falcons. The Falcons have lost their last three ATS and this is a great chance to get back on track. If they win this game it’ll be by at least a field goal so I’ll give up the points and take Atlanta.

The Play: Falcons -2.5

Over/Under (42.5)

I’m going off recency bias for this one. The last time these two played the final score was 37-34. You could take two touchdowns off of both teams final scores and still hit this over with a 23-20 final. Atlanta is 5-4 to the over and Carolina is 4-5. That doesn’t sound all that impressive, but when you consider the rate unders are hitting at this year it’s not bad. No team has hit more than 5 overs this year so far. With such a low number I can’t pass it up. This should be easy, but nothing ever is in the NFL.

The Play: Over 42.5

Final Prediction

Falcons 27 Panthers 21

Here we have a Monday night game with two teams that seem impossible to predict. Both are under .500 ATS, but have pulled out games you wouldn’t have expected them to along with losing some headscratchers. Yesterdays card was 4-0-1 which was great. Unfortunately though I am no longer the spread king on Mondays and Thursdays as I’ve lost my last five of those games ATS. Here’s to getting back on track tonight somehow.

The Spread: Ravens (-1.5)

Baltimore seems to be controlling a large portion of the bets and the handle (on Draftkings) and for good reason. They have been the better team this year for sure. I just don’t know how much I trust them as they haven’t performed great ATS this season. The Saints are always dangerous at home, but they might be biting off a little more than they can chew against the Ravens. With the line at 1.5 you’re basically taking the team you think is going to win the game here. My head is telling me Baltimore walks away with this one, but my messed up gambling mind (which always seems to win out) is saying the Saints win this game at home because everyone is counting them out. WynnBET is also reporting 77% of the money is on New Orleans tonight while the bet count on Baltimore is at 65%. A vast difference from Draftkings. It feels like the smart money is on the Saints here. I don’t love it, but I’m rolling with it.

The Play: Saints +1.5

Over/Under 46.5

I’m also having trouble with this one. I think I like the over, but I’ve been burned by both of these teams picking totals this year. Last week the Saints put up 24 points, but blanked the Raiders and gave me no shot at that over. I had the over in Ravens/Bengals earlier this year as well and that turned into a slugfest that went way under the total. The Saints are 2-2 to the over at home and the Ravens are the same on the road. I will say though, I can never turn down a nice dome game over. I’m getting back to my roots here. Give me points.

The Play: Over 46.5

Final Prediction

Saints 27 Ravens 24

Believe it or not I don’t get paid to melt faces with my takes. Sometimes life (and work) gets in the way and because of that this weeks post is going to be a bit shorter. There will still be five picks just maybe only a sentence or two about each game. I think only like two people read the write up portion anyway and the rest just look at the picks like Kyle does. Anyways, let’s get into it.

Favorite

Buccaneers (-3) vs. Rams

Yup, I’m doing it again. The Bucs can’t be THIS bad and they play another under performing team in the Rams. Coming off the mini-bye Tampa should be ready to go at home.

Charlie Murphy’s Habitual Line Stepper of the Week (Underdog)

Seahawks (+2) vs. Cardinals

Seahawks are good. Cardinals are average. Cardinals also suck at home. Ride with Geno here. The moneyline is juicy if you’re feeling frisky too.

Over

Dolphins vs. Bears (45.5)

The Bears offense has come alive as of late. The Dolphins have been able to put up points when Tua has played. If the Bears can get you to 20 points this hits easily.

Under

Patriots vs. Colts (40.5)

Two good defenses and lethargic offenses. The Mac Jones Patriots are field goal machines so that will keep the total low. Patriots win a low scoring game.

The Definitely Not My Lock of the Week Bonus Pick

Chargers (-2.5) vs. Falcons

A little birdie told me that teams coming off a game against the Panthers are 0-7 so far this year. Guess who the Falcons played last week? I’m not going against that bizarre piece of gambling knowledge.

7-0 vs. 1-5-1. Can’t wait for another riveting Thursday Night game. The only Houston vs. Philly I want to see is the World Series and they’ll be playing right up against this game. There is some value to be had here I think, but what do I know I haven’t had a great run of picks lately.

The Spread: Eagles (-13)

I mean you can’t take the Texans and be serious right? I know this is a ton of points, but come on Houston stinks. This seems like a classic scenario where Philly pulls ahead in the second quarter and never looks back. The first half line is 7.5 and I like that too. I hate double digit favorites, but I’d kick myself for taking Houston and watching the Eagles win by 20+ points like I did with the Steelers last week. If you’re worried about this being too many points take the first half line the Eagles are 7-0 on it this year.

The Play(s): Eagles -13, or Eagles 1H -7.5

Over/Under (45)

This one’s tricky because the Eagles are going to get theirs, but just how many points are the Texans going to score? They’ve kind of been all over the place with scoring and have topped out at 24. If Houston can score somewhere in the mid-teens, in order for Philly to cover the spread the over would most certainly have to hit as well. So that’s really the big question what Houston offense shows up? If you think they score less than 14 points and the Eagles land somewhere in the low 30s. That covers the spread and stays under the total. The problem I keep coming back to though is that there isn’t a lot of leeway with that. If you think the Eagles are going to ball out and score points then you have to go over and hope Houston can cover you on the backside. I came into this thinking I was going under and changed my mind mid paragraph. That always works out great.

The Play: Over 45

Final Prediction

With my earlier predictions of Eagles -13 and Over 45 give me the Eagles 34-14.

This Monday we get a divisional matchup between two teams trending in opposite directions. The Bengals seem to have found their footing and the Browns are still trying to hang on waiting for Deshaun Watson’s return. Will the Bengals keep rolling or will the Browns salvage their season? Let’s take a look.

The Spread: Bengals (-3)

I got this at 3 points so that’s what I’m going with here. A lot of books have this at 3.5 which means the money’s probably coming in on the Bengals. I like Cincinnati in this spot. The Browns have lost four straight and I don’t think that stops anytime soon. Even without Ja’Marr Chase I think the Bengals still have enough on offense to get the job done. Divisional games can always be a little dicey though. I do think this game will be closer than some think it will be, but ultimately I think the Bengals get the job done. We’ve seen when the Browns have had to rely on Jacoby Brissett it hasn’t gone so well for them. Cincinnati slowing down Nick Chubb is going to be key. If Cleveland can’t run the ball Brissett is going to have a tough time keeping up with the Bengals offense. Bengals win by more than a touchdown with a late score.

The Play: Cincinnati -3

Over/Under (45)

I latched onto the Primetime under for a bit too long and now it’s starting to bite me. The Browns have been the best over team so far at 5-2 while the Bengals have been one of the worst at 2-5. 45 is a reachable number for these teams and we won’t even need a quick start to get there. The Browns have given up at least 23 points in all but one of their games. In their four wins the Bengals have scored at least 27 points. We shouldn’t have an issue with Cincy doing their part and if we can get the Browns to 20 points I think we’ll hit it.

The Play: Over 45

Final Prediction

With my earlier predictions of Bengals -3 and Over 45 give me the Bengals 30-20.

Welcome to my NFL Week 8 betting guide. Each week we are going to pick one favorite, one underdog (AKA Charlie Murphy’s Habitual Line Stepper of the Week), one over, one under, and we’ll cap it off with a bonus pick that I can’t call my lock of the week anymore because it keeps losing. Last week we changed it up a bit (with not so great results), so we move back to the old format for Week 8.

Favorite

49ers (-1.5) vs. Rams

If you’re going to give me less than a field goal here for the Niners, I’m going to take it. I don’t even care that they are on the road. Kyle Shanahan owns Sean McVay and he has for years (at least in the regular season). They beat them handily a few weeks ago and now add in Christian McCaffrey off a full week of practice. I think it’s time we call the Rams what they really are and that’s a mediocre team at best. Matthew Stafford isn’t healthy and this team reeks of a Super Bowl hangover. San Francisco all day.

Charlie Murphy’s Habitual Line Stepper of the Week (Underdog)

Cardinals (+3.5) vs. Vikings

The Cardinals seemed to get back on track last week so I like them at more than a field goal here. I’m still not a big believer in the Vikings and they have to start showing some cracks at some point. Arizona has also been a good road team under Kyler Murray. They are 19-9-1 against the spread on the road since he was drafted. The public is slightly favoring the Cardinals, but the money is pretty squarely on them which I like. Look for Arizona to win this game outright and if not the 3 point cushion sure helps.

Over

Raiders vs. Saints (49.5)

On paper you’d think that taking an over in a game with Andy Dalton at QB wouldn’t be a smart move. Well he’s made four starts so far this year and the Saints have scored at least 25 points in all of those games. If they can keep that up we’re already halfway there and you know the Raiders can score. Not to mention the Saints defense has given up at least 28 points in their last four games as well. The Raiders offense is just as good if not better than all of those teams too. All signs point to the over here. Throw in the fact that it’s in the dome too and I like it even more.

Under

Broncos vs. Jaguars (39.5)

Last chance to take the London under so you know we have to go with it. Both games across the pond have gone over this year, but those were at Tottenham and traditionally games in Wembley have gone under. Denver also just has a penchant for unders this year. The under is 6-1 in Broncos games this season. So much for your $250 million QB. Anyways, Denver also plays good defense and they’ll keep them in this game. As long as we can avoid a big kick return or pick six the under seems pretty safe here.

The Definitely Not My Lock of the Week Bonus Pick

Steelers (+10.5) vs. Eagles

The battle for PA. This one is gross to look at, but it’s Mike Tomlin as an underdog so you have to take it. I know that strategy hasn’t necessarily been foolproof this year (remember the Buffalo game?), but 10.5 is a lot of points to give anyone. Sure Philly is undefeated this season and almost certainly wins this game, I just don’t know if it’ll be by more than 10. They’ve only won by more than that margin twice so far in six games. Pittsburgh’s been scrappy at times this year and I like them to keep this interesting. Birds win by a TD.

I bet a lot of people had this game circled on their calendars before the season started. Now maybe not so much. Both teams have disappointed to some degree this year although the Bucs have had far more issues than the Ravens. I’ve gone back and forth here so let’s get started and see where we land.

The Spread: Ravens (-1.5)

I have a pick in mind and I don’t think any sort of X’s and O’s explanation is going to help my argument. Everything about this game says the Ravens should win. They’ve played better and Tampa has been awful lately. All I hear with that though is this sounds like a trap game for Baltimore. If they truly are that much better then they should be favored by more than 1.5. Nothing and I mean NOTHING about the way Tampa has been playing makes you think they can win this game and that’s why I like it. They need this win desperately too. Tom Brady didn’t get divorced to miss the playoffs this year and this needs to be the start of their comeback. The public is all over Baltimore too and fading them has been profitable this year. This could blow up in my face, but I’m going with the home dog.

The Play: Buccaneers +1.5

Over/Under (45)

This game seems like an over, but the way these offenses have been playing lately I’m not so sure. The last two standalone primetime games have hit to over so the heavy lean towards unders might be correcting. Still though, I like the under here. The Bucs have only scored over 21 points once and that was in a loss trying to keep up with the Chiefs. The Ravens offense started hot, but has scored between 19-23 points their last four games. I’m thinking both teams land in the low 20’s and we hit this under.

The Play: Under 45

Final Prediction

With my earlier predictions of Buccaneers +1.5 and Under 45 give me the Bucs 21-20.

Week 7 comes to an end with the Chicago Bears coming to visit my New England Patriots. Another absolutely riveting game to cap off killer slate from Week 7 (sense the sarcasm). Thankfully I have a vested interest in this game or I wouldn’t be too fired up about this one. There’s always money to be made though, let’s take a look at how we can do that tonight.

The Spread: Patriots (-8.5)

On paper this seems like an obvious bet. The only thing I worry about is just how healthy is Mac Jones going to be coming off his high ankle sprain from Week 3? The Bears pass defense has performed well so far this season which means we’ll probably see a healthy dose of Rhamondre Stevenson and Damien Harris. I also think the Pats will try and protect Mac in his first game back by not asking him to do too much. Expect some long, calculated, time consuming drives from the Patriots offense tonight.

The Bears have been quite one-dimensional offensively and I think that plays right into Belichick’s hands. He’s always able to take away the thing you do best and make you beat him another way. Well when the only thing you do well is hand the ball to David Montgomery and Khalil Herbert you’re going to have a hard time against the Patriots defense. My only real worry is Justin Fields scrambling and ability to get outside the pocket and make plays. Outside of that it’s going to be a long night for the Bears offense. With that being said I think my pick is kind of obvious. Come on, did you think I was going any other way with this? Pats by double digits.

The Play: Patriots -8.5

Over/Under (40)

Again I think this pick is pretty clear as well. It’s going to be cold, windy, and rainy in Foxboro. The Bears offense stinks. The Pats will probably be running the ball for the majority of the game. I mean this screams under to me. Admittedly I’d be perfectly fine losing this bet if the Patriots go out and hang a 40 spot on the Bears, but I don’t see it happening. Once again we ride with a Primetime Under.

The Play: Under 40

Final Prediction

With my earlier predictions of Patriots -8.5 and under 40 give me the Patriots 24-7.