New Orleans Saints (4-8) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-6)

The Spread: Buccaneers (-3)

Another Monday Night game that looked great on paper early in the season that has turned into a completely trash game. I really don’t have a read on this game either. Both teams have been awful this season. The Bucs just lost to the Browns and the Saints got shut out by the 49ers. Neither team is coming into this one with much momentum. Tom Brady’s Bucs have struggled against the Saints in his time in Tampa, but that was the Sean Payton Saints. He’s 1-0 against Dennis Allen winning in Week 2 20-10. Everything that made sense about these two teams trends wise is contradicts itself now. Like the fact that Brady is 2-10 ATS in night games with Tampa. You’d think that would make the Saints more enticing, but no Andy Dalton is 9-17 ATS in Primetime. I don’t understand why the Saints won’t just play Jameis, but we’ll save that for another time. As for this game the line has come down considerably as it was at 6.5 on the lookahead. I think with a crap game like this you should just take the points. Buy a half point if it doesn’t ruin your payout. 8:15 is past Tom Brady’s bedtime. Go Saints here.

The Play: Saints +3

Total (41)

The Bucs are an under team this year and the Saints have been under this number in 4 of their last 5. With all the injuries the Bucs are facing on their offensive line combined with the fact that Dennis Allen refuses to play anyone but Andy Dalton at QB makes me think this game should go under. The Bucs are 9-2 to the under this year the only team to hit more unders is the Broncos who have hit 11 out of 12 (insane). I think we see the offenses struggle to put up points like in their first matchup.

The Play: Under 41

Final Prediction

Saints 21 Buccaneers 16

Here we go again. Another Sunday, another five picks coming at you. Last week we finished 3-2 on Sunday. Not bad, but it’s about time we hit a 5-0. Let’s go.

Favorite

Lions (Pk) vs. Jaguars

Alright I know this is kind of cheating. My book has this at a pick’em, but the Lions are favored on other publications so they’re going to count as a favorite here. I think this is fairly simple. The Lions played great on Thanksgiving against a really good team and if Josh Allen didn’t turn into Superman on that last drive and get the Bills in field goal range that game was headed for OT. The Jags on the other hand had a lot of things break their way down the stretch in their win against the Ravens. A win’s a win, but that formula isn’t sustainable. Go with the Lions here at home.

Charlie Murphy’s Habitual Line Stepper of the Week (Underdog)

Steelers (+1) vs. Falcons

Back to the well again with the underdog Steelers. Like I said in Monday’s blog this team is completely different when TJ Watt is on the field. He changes everything for Pittsburgh. I like this spot for them as a road underdog. Atlanta was a cash cow through the first 6 weeks going 6-0 ATS. Since then though not so much. They’ve gone 1-5 in their last 6 ATS. Atlanta has played some tight games recently, but have found a way to Falcons themselves (yes that’s a verb) in most of those games. I like Pittsburgh to win in a tight one. You can take the point for tie-insurance if you want or grab the money line for a little more juice.

Over

Chargers vs. Raiders (50)

This is one of those games that seems like a no brainer which I don’t love, but this feels like it should hit pretty easily. The Raiders are playing every game into overtime now for some reason and the Chargers are typically a high scoring team. If Mike Williams makes his way back onto the field that will be huge for the over as well. I think the way the Raiders are playing offensively (and the fact that they don’t play defense) bodes well for the over.

Under

Broncos vs. Ravens (39.5)

You guessed it we’re doing Broncos unders again. The Ravens won’t put up a ton of points against a good Denver defense and let’s face it the Broncos offense probably won’t be doing much of anything. I will continue to blindly take these unders until they start losing.

The Definitely Not My Lock of the Week Bonus Pick

Titans (+4.5) vs. Eagles

Derrick Henry should have a field day in this game. I know Jordan Davis might play and that changes how the Eagles do things defensively especially when it comes to stopping the run, but this feels like a trap for Philly. Mike Vrabel is 21-7 ATS and 19-9 SU as more than a field goal underdog. You can’t argue with those numbers. I know this is kind of a public pussy pick now, but it was at one time the sharpest move this weekend. I’m still rolling with it.

Buffalo Bills (8-3) vs. New England Patriots (6-5)

The Spread: Bills (-4)

I mean all seven people reading this blog know who I’m going to pick, but the Patriots getting points at home has always been a recipe for success. The Bills have come back down to earth a bit recently after a hot start. They are still a very good team though and that offense can be deadly if it gets rolling early. I expect the Patriots to do what most underdogs do against a good team like the Bills and that’s play to their strengths. They’ll have to run the ball and keep the Bills offense on the sidelines. If they are able to do that I think they hang around and even potentially come out with the win. The Patriots are the more desperate team here as well and that needs to be taken into account. They can’t risk losing this game to fall to .500 with five games to go and a tough schedule still on the horizon. Expect New England to come out and play hard right from the jump to take advantage of Buffalo’s slow starts.

The Play: Patriots +4

Total (43.5)

If you like the Pats in this game you probably like the under as well. New England does not want to turn this into a shootout against this Bills offense. That’s a battle you’re not going to win most of the time. Like I said above and countless other times I’ve taken an underdog in primetime. Expect them to run the ball and eat the clock. That usually leads to a lower scoring game.

The Play: Under 43.5

Final Prediction

Patriots 20 Bills 17

Pittsburgh Steelers (3-7) vs. Indianapolis Colts (4-6-1)

The Spread: Colts (-2.5)

If you’ve been reading these blogs this year you know I’m just blindly taking Pittsburgh as an underdog here. I’ve gone to the well with this strategy a ton this year and that has yielded mixed results. I know the Colts have been playing well under Jeff Saturday, but I just don’t see how they keep up this up. Pittsburgh has looked like a different team since TJ Watt’s return as well. Sure they lost to Cincinnati last week, but we’re talking about one of the best teams in the AFC and they we’re able to keep it to a 7 point game. I like the way the Steelers have played the last two weeks more than the Colts so I’m taking the points.

The Play: Steelers +2.5

Total (39.5)

This is a super low total so the over is tempting, but I’d hate to take it and have these offenses show their true colors and score no points. Pittsburgh is 6-4 to the under and Indy is 9-2. I can’t imagine a ton of points are scored in this game. Have to go under here.

The Play: Under 39.5

Final Prediction

Steelers 17 Colts 14

It’s been a busy holiday weekend, but that doesn’t mean the people don’t need picks. I’m going rapid fire here, let’s get started.

Favorite

Seahawks (-4) vs. Raiders

I love Seattle to bounce back this week. The Raiders can only beat the Broncos apparently and if the Seahawks want to be for real here than they have to take care of teams like this. Seahawks by a touchdown.

Charlie Murphy’s Habitual Line Stepper of the Week (Underdog)

Texans (+13.5) vs. Dolphins

Simply put, this is too many points. The Texans haven’t been blown out a ton this year and Miami has only won by more than six points twice. Dolphins win easy, Texans cover.

Over

Packers vs. Eagles (46)

The Packers offense seems to have at least slightly remembered how to play football so I like this at a lower number. The Eagles should have no problem doing their part here against a so-so Green Bay defense. Both teams get into the mid-20’s to hit this over.

Under

Broncos vs. Panthers (36)

This is a preposterously low number so I have to take it. Sam Darnold tries his hand at QB for the Panthers against a very good Broncos defense. I’m sure that will go well. Russell Wilson’s offense surely won’t be scoring any points either. As long as there aren’t some bullshit quicks scores to pump up the total this game could actually end 0-0.

The Definitely Not My Lock of the Week Bonus Pick

Commanders (-4) vs. Falcons

Just like the Seahawks, if the Commanders want to seriously contend for a playoff spot they have to take care of business against a team like Atlanta. They matchup well with Atlanta’s penchant for running the ball because their very good defensive line and Taylor Heinicke can do just enough to get them the win. Commanders by a touchdown.

Happy Thanksgiving to the seven people that read these picks. This Thursday as you know we have three games instead of just one. What we’re going to do here is give one pick for each game. Whether that be against the spread or on the total I’ll talk about each game quickly and then give a pick.

Bills (-9.5) vs. Lions (+9.5) (54)

The total here is a bit too high for my liking. As much as I’d like to sit back and get the day started with a nice over I can’t get on board with this one. That leaves us with a 9.5 point spread to deal with. The Lions are playing inspired football as of late, but as it goes with the Lions I’m wondering when that’s going to end. The Bills bounced back nicely last week with a win over the Browns, but I still worry about Josh Allen’s elbow, especially when we’re talking about a spread this big. I have no doubts the Lions will be able to score points in this game the question is can they keep up with Buffalo? I think the answer to that is yes, and solely because I’m not convinced Josh Allen is 100% healthy just yet. Bills win by single digits and the Lions cover.

The Play: Lions +9.5

Giants (+10) vs. Cowboys (-10) (45.5)

Another big spread here. The Cowboys looked like world beaters Sunday when they went up to Minnesota and dismantled an 8-1 Vikings team. I think that, along with the fact that the Giants seem to be fading a bit has inflated this line. Now I don’t necessarily buy the idea that the Giants are a really good team and I do think they’ve overperformed to this point. I think the reason for that is that they found themselves a very good coach in Brian Daboll. The Giants know that the near guaranteed playoff berth it seemed they had a couple weeks ago is at major risk of slipping away and especially so if they go out and lay a dud on Thursday. I think Daboll has them ready to rip and if he does there’s no reason they can’t keep this under 10. The Cowboys are also 1-10 ATS on Thanksgiving since 2011. I’d say it’s more likely than not they win this game too, but by more than 10? I don’t think so. I also like the over here, but I’ll take the points with New York.

The Play: Giants +10

Patriots (+2.5) vs. Vikings (-2.5) (42.5)

I know what you’re thinking here. Is he going to do it? Is he going to take a third straight underdog? You’re damn right I’m going to. I mean, come on if you’re reading this you know me, and if you know me you know I’m not picking against the Pats. The line has already come down from 3 to 2.5 as well. That means Vegas thinks the Pats are a half point better on a neutral field. Ooh and one more thing. It’s Kirk Cousins in Prime Time. I don’t care who the Vikings were playing I’d be picking against them in this game. If the Patriots offense can remember how to move the ball and help their defense out a little I don’t see any reason why they couldn’t win this game.

The Play: Patriots +2.5

San Francisco 49ers (5-4) vs. Arizona Cardinals (4-6)

The Spread: 49ers (-10)

I have absolutely no idea again. Colt McCoy gets the start at QB for the Cardinals which has inflated this line to 10 points. McCoy was able to lead them to victory last week against the Rams, but will he be able to keep it up versus a very good San Francisco defense? Deandre Hopkins is in line to play as we speak, but the Cardinals will be without Zach Ertz and Hollywood Brown. I think the Niners win this game no problem, but the line is scaring me a bit. It feels like the 49ers don’t blow teams out, but four of their five wins have been by more than 10 points. I’m having trouble picking against San Francisco here. I just think that we’ve already seen the Colt McCoy game this year and I’m not sure he’s capable of doing it again against a good team. I don’t love it, but I’m riding with the 49ers here.

The Play: 49ers -10

Total (43)

I’m just going to lay it all out for you here. I need Deebo and McCaffrey to go off for my fantasy team tonight so I’m picking the over strictly based off that. It’s a low number so I’m hoping if we can get a couple touchdowns on the board early we can get to this total. The Niners defense should be able to shut down the Cardinals, but if they can get into the upper teens points wise then for San Francisco to cover the over will have to hit. I just think this is slightly too low of a number for these teams even with McCoy in at QB.

The Play: Over 43

Final Prediction

49ers 30 Cardinals 17

Welcome to my NFL Week 11 betting guide. Each week we are going to pick one favorite, one underdog (AKA Charlie Murphy’s Habitual Line Stepper of the Week), one over, one under, and we’ll cap it off with a bonus pick that I can’t call my lock of the week anymore because it keeps losing. Let’s get started.

Favorite

Eagles (-6.5) vs. Colts

The look ahead line for this game was 10.5 before Monday Night. It’s a cool narrative to think that Jeff Saturday completely fixed the Colts, but I’m supposed to be sold on this team after beating who? The Raiders? On the other hand I’m supposed to sell on the Eagles after one loss? I’m not doing that either. The Commanders played a great game Monday Night, but a lot went wrong for the Eagles and they still were in the game right down to the end. This feels like a let down spot for the Colts coming off an emotional win last week. The Eagles roll here.

Charlie Murphy’s Habitual Line Stepper of the Week (Underdog)

Steelers (+4) vs. Bengals

Back to the well with the Steelers I go. Last time I took them they got run out of the building by the Eagles so I’m ready to get hurt again. The thing about that game was they didn’t have TJ Watt. He is such a game changer for this team overall. Don’t fact check me, but I think the Steelers have won like a game or two when Watt has missed time since he’s gotten to Pittsburgh. They also beat the Bengals in a wild game to start the season. Four points is a lot for a divisional game and a home underdog at that. I’ll always take Mike Tomlin in that situation, go Steelers here.

Over

Browns vs. Bills (49.5)

I wish I got in on this over when the game was supposed to be played in six feet of snow, but if you snooze you lose. Now with the game being played in Detroit points shouldn’t be hard to come by. The Bills should be on a mission to put a beatdown on Cleveland here and luckily for them the Browns defense couldn’t stop a nosebleed. Look for Buffalo to get back on track offensively. Cleveland should be able to do enough to get us to 50 in this one. If they can get anywhere around 20 points the Bills should take care of the rest.

Under

Raiders vs. Broncos (41)

I don’t really love any unders this week so why not take the best team to the under this year? 8 of 9 Broncos games have gone under the total so far this season. Only problem with this pick is that one game that went over was against the Raiders. Water always finds it’s level though, so if these two put up over 50 last time they played I think they can keep it in the 30’s this time.

The Definitely Not My Lock of the Week Bonus Pick

Cowboys (-1.5) vs. Vikings

You might ask yourself why would an 8-1 team be getting points at home against a team that just blew a 14 point fourth quarter lead to Green Bay last week? I asked myself the same question, but I think this is just another case of Vegas baiting you into taking Minnesota. The Vikings are coming off a huge comeback win over the Bills and the Cowboys off the aforementioned game against the Packers. Buy low, sell high as they say. The game is also at 4:25. Not necessarily prime time, but there’s going to be a lot of eyes on this one. We all know what happens to Kirk Cousins in those scenarios. This game feels like a classic case of sniffing out the rat line and that’s what the Vikings getting points is. Cowboys take this one on the road.

Tennessee Titans (6-3) vs. Green Bay Packers (4-6)

The Spread: Packers -3

I’m really struggling with this one. It feels like Green Bay might finally be on to something after beating Dallas last week. Tennessee has won some low scoring grind-it-out type games against not so good teams recently, but they have continued to find ways to win. They even had a late lead in Kansas City a couple weeks ago with Malik Willis at QB not Ryan Tannehill. Everything about how last week went makes you thing Green Bay is a lock, but I’m just not completely sold on that yet. Green Bay at home in the cold on a short week sounds all well and good, but you have to remember how this team has looked all season and that hasn’t been great. Tennessee is also dealing with injuries to some key players on their defense which continues to make me lean towards the Packers, but one thing keeps bringing me back. That’s Derrick Henry. The Packers have been awful against the run this year and this is the time of year where Henry thrives the most. Even with Tannehill and the passing game limited I still think Henry has a big game. This has all the makings of a close, low scoring, grind of a game and I’ll almost always take the points when that’s the case.

The Play: Titans +3

Over/Under (42)

For all the reasons I mentioned above this game screams under. The Titans are going to run the ball a ton and eat the clock. The Packers offense has been non-existent recently besides last week. Tennessee is 7-2 to the under this year as well. No need to repeat the same things I’ve already said take the under here.

The Play: Under 42

Final Prediction

Titans 21 Packers 17

Washington Commanders (4-5) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (8-0)

The Spread: Eagles (-10.5)

The last time these two teams played the Eagles ran away with a 24-8 victory. Who’s to say that won’t happen again? Well hopefully for the Commanders sake Taylor Heinicke has something to say about it. Last time these teams met it was Carson Wentz at QB for Washington. Since Heinicke took over the starting job the Commanders are 2-1 with that one loss being a heartbreaker to the 8-1 Vikings. I like the direction Washington is trending in and, the last time we saw the Eagles they struggled for a large portion of their game against the Texans. They were favored by as much as 14 and only held a 4 point lead heading into the fourth quarter and won by 12. I’m not saying they won’t win this game, but 10.5 is a lot of points. I think Washington is able to hang around here and give us at least a semi entertaining Monday Night game for once.

The Play: Commanders +10.5

Over/Under (43.5)

If I’m going with Washington on the spread here I feel like the under is the best move to go along with it. If they are going to keep this game close they’re going to have to control the clock and force some turnovers and we all know those are over killers. If they can weather the storm that is the second quarter Eagles I think they’ll be able to stick around in this game and keep the point total low. It feels good to go back to what started my Monday/Thursday winning streak (which feels like years ago at this point) and that was the underdog and the under.

The Play: Under 43.5

Final Prediction

Eagles 24 Commanders 17