That’s right, I’m semi-unretiring here for Week 2 of the 2024-25 season. I can’t promise I’ll be back every week, but I’ll try to get some takes off when I can. I’ve heard the critics too, some of whom have been louder than others. They’re saying I’m washed up, that I don’t have a real job, that I “don’t have the balls to put my picks up every week.” It’s all disappointing to hear because it comes from someone who I have a lot of respect for in the take game, and that’s my protégé over at Bick’s Picks. Now we invite competition and shit-talking over here at Jake’s Takes so I’m all for it, but my man needs to remember who paved the way for Bick’s Picks, who pays Word Press every year so he can slander my Patriots, who edits the grammatical errors out of all his blogs. That’s right I’m still the King over here whether I’m blogging or not. It’s about time I once again neglect my duties as an Athletic Trainer and use my work computer for some good old fashioned blogging. So without further ado, Let’s get into some picks.

The “Suck My Bick” Hater Bet of the Week

Giants (+1.5) vs. Commanders

That’s right we’re fighting fire with fire in my return. I have absolutely no basis for this because the Giants STINK, but if you’re going to disrespectfully alt line the Bengals against the my Fighting Jerod Mayo’s up to -13.5, and then lose outright, I’m sure as hell betting against your team the next week no matter who they’re playing. The only difference is that I have the decency to not disparage Vegas and move lines around like a heathen, so we’re sticking with the spread here. I believe The Antithesis’ Jeff Young put it best when he called last weeks pick “an incredible piece of fiction,” and he was correct. Now after raining on their parade last week it’s time to add salt to the wound with a sad performance against Danny Dimes. Let’s hear it for the GGGGGG-MENNNNNN.

Charlie Murphy’s Habitual Line Stepper of the Week

Seahawks vs. Patriots (+3.5)

You know we had to bring back the Line Stepper in 2024 and what better team to do it with than the biggest outright underdog winner from last week. I actually like the Pats to keep this one close and maybe even pull out their second win in as many games. While the Seahawks have a scary looking receiving corps, the New England secondary is one of the best in the league led by and emergent Christian Gonzalez. I think the Pats can frustrate Geno Smith enough to keep this one within reach for the offense and they’re going to have to because Mike MacDonald’s defense is bound to give the Patriots offense fits at times in this one. If New England can control the clock offensively and turn this into a “rock fight” (that was for you Andrew) they’ll have a chance to win this game. I like this to be a low scoring affair, likely decided by a field goal, and I love seeing that .5 at the end of the 3 for the underdog in this one. Give me the Pats at home and just maybe let’s get to 2-0.

“They’re Eating Dogs” Favorite of the Week

Chargers (-4.5) vs. Panthers

Just like in Springfield Ohio, they’re eating dogs (underdogs in this case) in LA. I know taking a mid team to cover over a field goal on the road maybe isn’t the smartest thing to do, but man do the Panthers look awful so it’s hard not to. The Chargers will probably be my survivor pick this week as well so I’m looking for a blowout here. I think following the trend of “bet against the Panthers until Bryce Young looks like he knows how to play football” is probably the safe thing to do, and I could eat my words if he shows up big in this game, but after watching them last week it’s hard to have any faith. Chargers should dominate here.

That’s right. You’re not seeing a ghost, it isn’t and an aberration, I am in fact back just in time for the playoffs. I may have my Michael Jordan number 45 jersey on, but I figured playoff season was the perfect time to dust off the keyboard and fire off some picks. Before I do that though I want to give a huge, massive, shoutout to Andrew for keeping you all informed with Bick’s Picks during my hiatus. Don’t worry Jeff you get a shoutout for the Antithesis as well. Anyways, let’s dive into these games. I think I hate almost all of the lines, but we’re doing pick per game because I’m obviously betting every game.

Browns (-2) vs. Texans (44.5)

No surprises here with the schedule. The Texans are back in their 4:00 Saturday wild card slot. Well, the spot they share with the Bengals. I’m actually very excited for this game, having fresh faces in the playoffs is always fun. The Browns have had one of the more interesting seasons I can remember. Cycling through QBs like this doesn’t usually lead to an 11 win season, and the return of Joe Flacco has been quite a story. That all ends this weekend though. Come on, you know I have to ride with my man CJ Stroud. The Texans won a de facto playoff game last week so this team is ready to go. They get home field too after Jeff’s Jags choked away the division. Take the points if you’re not sold, but I think Houston wins outright.

The Play: Texans +2, Texans ML (+116)

Dolphins vs. Chiefs (-4.5) (44.5)

This game is interesting for a couple reasons. One, the Dolphins have been complete dogshit against playoff teams this year (1-5). Two, the Chiefs have not looked like themselves pretty much all season and still found a way to win their division. Three, it’s going to be absolutely freezing out during this game. All those factors, coupled with the fact that Patrick Mahomes plays QB in Kansas City, just screams Chiefs to me. Miami is banged up and haven’t been great on the road this season either. The line keeps moving so grab it now while you can. They did open at less than a field goal, if that was still the case this would’ve been my lock of the century, but for now it’s just a play.

The Play: Chiefs -4.5

Steelers vs. Bills (-10) (36.5)

Simply put this game is probably going to be gross. There might be some weather in Buffalo too. With TJ Watt out and Mason Rudolph starting for Pittsburgh the Bills should cover, but there’s a few reasons why I’m not touching this spread. The weather and the way the Steelers play offense will lend to a lower scoring game, and if that’s the case the backdoor is always open for a cover with a 10 point spread. I think your safest bet here is the under. The Bills jump out to an early lead, bleed the clock, and the Steelers pathetic offense doesn’t do much. In a battle of two teams that lost to the Patriots this year the Bills win a low scoring game.

The Play: Under 36.5

Packers vs. Cowboys (-7) (50.5)

This game will be a nice treat after you take your afternoon nap during the first game on Sunday. I’m tempted to take Dallas at home here. They’ve been absolutely steam rolling teams at Jerry World, but the Packers scare me a bit. They’ve been one of the most Jekyll and Hyde teams this year. You really never know what you’re getting with them. 7 points is a lot to be laying to a team that, if you get their A game, will cover this spread. Your guess is as good as mine on what Packers team we’ll see on Sunday though so, I’m not messing with the spread here. I do think we’ll see a lot of points so I like the over. Both of these teams were above .500 to the over this year and I think we get another one Sunday afternoon.

The Play: Over 50.5

Rams vs. Lions (-3) (51.5)

I’ve been struggling with how to feel about this game. This opened at Lions -4/-3.5 and if that was still the case I think I’d roll with the Rams in what should be a close game. I’m just not sure I can do that now with the line at 3. I think the Lions are able to sneak this one out even without Sam LaPorta who’s been huge for them this year. The Rams are also 1-6 against playoff teams this year and they have struggled on special teams this year as well. They haven’t really shown they can run with the big dogs this year and the Lions have. Jared Goff wins his revenge game in a barn burner and the Lions find a way to cover.

The Play: Lions -3

Eagles (-3) vs. Buccaneers (43.5)

We finish the week with another game I have no idea what to do with. As bad as the Eagles have looked since they beat the Chiefs and Bills, the Bucs have not been much better. With both teams limping into the playoffs I think the smartest thing to do is to take the team with the better roster and playoff experience. In this case that is the Eagles for sure. Let’s be real here too, do we expect a group run by Arians to show up on MLK Day of all days? Please, January 6th was last week. The Eagles are able to stop the Blitz(krieg) and tunnel their way to victory.

The Play: Eagles -3

I’ve reached my breaking point. I’m sick of getting crushed every weekend and it’s made writing these significantly less fun. My head isn’t in it anymore and it’s effecting my picks. So I need to step away for now. I will be back, but I will be taking an indefinite leave from my Betting Guides. This feels like a chore to me now, like something I have to do, and not something that I do for fun. This doesn’t mean I won’t be gambling. I just won’t be giving out horrible advice on who to take.

I’ve lost my love for writing these posts and I need to find it again. So like Jordan in ’93 I’m stepping away for now, and just like Jordan in ’95 I’ll be back. I’m just not sure when. Maybe it’ll be when I can get a read on a fucking game for once because I haven’t all year. So I want to apologize to all seven of you that read this and fade my picks. I’ll be sure to still tell you who I’m taking every week.

So long, for now…

Lions (-2.5) vs. Packers (45.5)

As I start typing this post I just want it on record that I still have no idea who to take in this game. I could throw a dart at these two teams and would probably be a more sound strategy than whatever I come up with. I do think the Lions are the more talented team, but them playing at Lambeau worries me. I know they won that Week 18 game last year, but still, they don’t have the greatest track record there. Both teams are a little banged up as well so the under could also be in play. With Aaron Jones and Christian Watson on track to play and the fact that the Lions offense can be dangerous I’d rather stay away from that though. I think if the Packers are getting points at home in a pretty even matchup like this you have to take them. I came into this leaning Lions, but this game could be a pick’em as far as I’m concerned so I’ll take the home dog.

The Play: Packers +2.5

It’s been a busy day so I have to go rapid fire here with the picks.

Eagles (-5.5) vs. Buccaneers (44.5)

The Bucs have been frisky so far this year and the Eagles have let inferior teams hang around to this point. I don’t quite think Tampa wins this game, but it should be close so I’m taking the points.

The Play: Buccaneers +5.5

Rams vs. Bengals (-3) (45.5)

This basically all hinges on Joe Burrow’s availability. We still don’t know if he is playing. If he does will he be effective though? The Rams have looked good so far this year so, I’ll take the points again here and if Burrow doesn’t play that’s a bonus.

The Play: Rams +3

Texans (+8.5) vs. Jaguars

I’m going back to the well with Houston again this week. These divisional games are always tight and I think this will be no different. Jacksonville is going to be a popular survival pool pick this week, but I think I’m staying away from them this week because I like Houston a lot here. As bad as they’ve been they’ve played the Jags tough in recent years. I expect that to continue. Let’s here it one time for my boy CJ Stroud. Texans cover, sprinkle the ML if you’re feeling frisky too.

Falcons (+3) vs. Lions

Even though they burned me last week I like the Falcons again. Desmond Ridder is not the answer at QB, but he’s at least been able to keep them in games and they have a 2-0 record to show for it. I’m betting against the Lions hype train again as well. I can see Atlanta putting up a ton of points this week on a Detroit defense that got gashed by the Seahawks last week. If you can buy this line up to 3.5 without killing your payout I like it even better. In fact, that’s probably what I’ll end up doing. Could also be another ML sprinkle candidate depending on the payout. Either way Atlanta covers.

Panthers (+5.5) vs. Seahawks

Yup, that’s right another road dog. This is a sell high spot on Seattle. They’re coming off a huge win in Detroit last week and they’re facing a backup QB? Seems like it should be an easy win, but they should not be getting this many points. I’m not sure if I’m comfortable enough to throw something on the ML here, but this is a team that kept it within 3 with New Orleans on Monday. I don’t think there’s much of a difference between them and Seattle. I also don’t think Andy Dalton gives you that much less than Bryce Young right now. If you can get the Panthers up at 6 or 6.5 I like it even better.

Steelers vs. Raiders (-2.5)

So after I lose all my money I’m going to need some juice on the Sunday Night game. I’m also going against my road dog “strategy” from earlier and riding with the home favorite. Just like I’m selling high on Seattle I’m doing the same with the Steelers. I typically bet Mike Tomlin as a dog, but I don’t love them Sunday night. The Raiders are a bit more alive than people thought they’d be too and Jimmy G finds ways to win games like this. I’m also buying low on them after getting blown out last week vs. Buffalo. Give me the Raiders to finish off my Sunday with (hopefully) a winning record.

I think I might start titling these posts “Picks You Should Fade.” Because had you been doing that the last two weeks you would’ve made some serious cash. So what are we rewarded with this Thursday? A double digit spread! We know how much I love those. Time to try and make sense of it.

Giants vs. 49ers (-10) (44)

I’m not really sure what to make of the Giants at this point. They got absolutely decimated for the first six quarters of the season. Then they made a furious comeback to win a game they were surely all but dead in, albeit against one of the worst teams in the league. The Niners on the other hand have looked very good this year, and would be 2-0 ATS if the spread god Sean McVay hadn’t kicked a meaningless field goal for the cover as time expired last weekend. I always tend to take the dog in situations like this, but the Giants aren’t really doing it for me right now. They’ll also be without Saquon Barkley for this one and without him I’m not sure how much offense they can muster especially against San Francisco. Daniel Jones has been, umm, pretty bad too outside of a couple drives at the end of the Cardinals game. The 49ers have been humming to this point, and even though I could probably QB them to a win with their weapons, Brock Purdy has looked like every bit of a guy they can win a Super Bowl with. The total here doesn’t really speak to me either so, I’m going to do something I don’t do a lot and that’s back a double digit favorite.

The Play: 49ers -10

Happy Week 2 Monday Night doubleheader day. Tonight we get two divisional matchups to close out what has been an entertaining week overall. I’ll be giving a pick for each game. Let’s get started.

Saints (-3) vs. Panthers (39.5)

I feel like people are going to hammer the Saints at only a field goal here, but I don’t see it. They’re on the road and didn’t particularly inspire too much confidence last week. I know the Panthers weren’t great also, but Bryce Young’s home debut should have the team and crowd fired up and ready to play. The Saints will still be without Alvin Kamara as well which makes their offense much less dynamic. I expect a sloppy game and the Panthers to find their way to a cover.

The Play: Panthers +3

Browns (-2.5) vs. Steelers (38.5)

This line is tough. I like Tomlin a lot as a home underdog, but I’d like to see it climb up to at least 3 points to make me feel more confident. That being the case I think the under has some good value here. The Steelers defense can’t possibly be as bad as they were last week, and the Browns will probably run the ball a lot and chew the clock. It’s not the type of fun bet I like to make for a primetime game like this, but I think points will be hard to come by tonight. I lean Steelers spread, but I’m betting the under.

The Play: Under 38.5

After a dreadful Week 1 I found myself on the right side Thursday Night’s spread. Hopefully that is a sign of things to come, but you never know especially when you suck at gambling like I do.

Packers vs. Falcons (-1.5)

I’m not sure what it is, but I like the Falcons a lot this year. I think they even have a chance to win the South if things break their way. As for this game though, I think Atlanta is going to run all over the Packers defense Sunday. I know Jordan Love looked good last weekend, but I’m expecting a bit of regression back to the mean this week for him, and the Green Bay offense. I like the spread where its at too. Less than a field goal bodes well for the Falcons in what most likely will be a close game.

Seahawks vs Lions (Over 47)

This theoretically should be a fun over. The Lions offense at home indoors should put be able to up some serious points. The Seahawks offense cannot possibly be as bad as they were last week. It doesn’t take much to get to 47. One good quarter should put us on pace and even a bad one won’t cripple you. The last two times these teams met they have scored at least 80 combined points. That has never happened between the same two teams in three straight meetings. We don’t need that though we just have to get to 48.

Commanders vs. Broncos (Under 38.5)

There’s no way this isn’t a snooze fest of a game. Both teams have good defenses and either somewhat inept (Washington) or completely inept (Denver) offenses. I like Washington to win in a close low scoring game. For what it’s worth I like the Commanders +3.5 as well, but they burned me last week and I think the under is the safer play here.

Vikings vs. Eagles (-6.5) (48.5)

I am a broken man after Week 1. That was one of, if not my worst, week since I started writing these. So I’d say whatever I pick here you should probably fade. Anyways, I got chance to watch the entirety of the Eagles game on Sunday against the Patriots and they played about one good quarter and then hung on for dear life to win the game. Minnesota on the other hand was on the losing side of my only win last week against Tampa Bay. I’m conflicted here because this seems like a prime bounce back spot for the Vikings, but it could also be a chance for the Eagles to get back on track and play a complete game. Minnesota did outgain Tampa last week and the Eagles were outgained by New England. I feel like with the line sitting up at 6.5 you’re better off taking the dog and hoping for a close game. I don’t ever advocate for it, but I’m doing it. We’re taking Prime Time Kirk. What a way to try and get back on track.

The Play: Vikings +6.5