Why are we getting Bick’s Picks on a Saturday? Because I cut the brakes! Wild card bitches! The football gods have gifted us with three straight days of NFL playoffs and it’s shaping up should be a good one. We’re expecting to get some all time football weather for some of these games, not to mention I’m feeling some upsets this weekend. Also since it’s the playoffs we’re switching up the format and betting every game whether we want to or not so let’s get into it. 

Browns (-2.5) @ Texans

Personally I think it’s unfortunate teams are meeting up in the first round because both are such good stories but thankfully at least one of these teams will advance. And yup that’s right I’m riding January Joe in this one. Simply put I’m riding with experience in this one and that will be a trend moving forward with the rest of my picks. This young Texans team is a great story and honestly a great example of how you can turn things around quickly if you draft the right QB but at the end of the day I think their inexperience will lead to mistakes that the Browns will capitalize on. Stroud very easily could prove me wrong but a well rested Browns team should be able to get the job done.

Browns (-2.5)

Dolphins @ Chiefs (-4.5)

It’s gonna be cold. Like all time it’s dangerous to be outside cold. It’ll easily be the coldest game in Dolphins franchise history and they simply don’t do well in the cold. Fins have lost 10 straight games that have had temperatures below 40 degrees and I think that trend continues. Nevermind the fact this will be Tua’s first playoff start and I think he’ll make mistakes. Miami is also dealing with numerous injuries on offense and on defense which doesn’t bode well for them. Now I won’t ignore the Chiefs have looked bad by their standards but it’s the playoffs they’ll show up for round 1 at home. Gimme the KC all day.

Chiefs (-4.5)

Steelers @ Bills (Under 37)

Whelp I had to scrap this whole pick as I was just finishing Bick’s Picks when the news dropped that this game was moving to Monday. My pick originally was to hammer the Under because that was nearly a guarantee since this game was gonna get played in a blizzard with 50 mph winds. Now even though the Under isn’t as appealing I still think it’s the play. The spread is 10 and although I can see the Bills covering that I’m not willing to bet on it. So I’m sticking with the Under but admittedly don’t feel as good about it as I did before.

Under 37

Packers @ Cowboys (-7)

I’ll address right away this is an ugly line and also yes I am betting on the Cowboys in the playoffs. Once again the main reason for this is that I’m betting against inexperience. Love looks pretty good as of late and managed to do enough to secure the Packers a spot in the playoffs but I feel like they needed some luck to get there. Looking back at the Packers low points this season they stand out to me a lot more than the highlights. Sure the Cowboys have been all over the place this season but they’ve been a much better team at home. End of the day Cowboys are the better team and I think their desire to run up the score when ahead helps us cover in the end.

Cowboys -7

Rams (+3) @ Lions

I won’t deny it, I’m a broken record today because once again I’m betting against inexperience in this matchup. This time it isn’t the quarterback but instead the coach and most of the Lions team. But in regards to the quarterback I’m also betting against Jared Goof. That guy has turned into a pumpkin at the worst times this season and I think it happens again tomorrow night. On the other side Rams are a very experienced squad capable of making a surprise Super Bowl run. They’re also rested and in the end I think they don’t shrink in the moment like I’m expecting the Lions to do.

Rams +3

Eagles @ Buccaneers (+2.5)

I won’t waste my time talking about this one a ton because I think we all know why I’m betting against the Eagles in this one. Cause fuck em that’s why! These jabronis have lost every time I’ve bet them so I’m not gonna make that mistake again. Also let’s not forget the Iggles are simply a mess right now. They’ve lost 5 of 6, the defense can’t stop a nosebleed, Hurts’ finger looks like ET’s and AJ Brown won’t be playing. Now I’m not in love with the idea of relying on Baker to get us a win but this is a bet against the Eagles as much as it is one for the Bucs. Ride with the Bucs and fire the cannons.

Buccaneers +2.5

Here we are Week 18. We made it. Who would’ve thought? Not me. It’s been a season of highs and lows here at Bick’s Picks but after two winning weeks we find ourselves at a 27-25-1 record going into the final week of regular season football. Last week we were almost perfect but alas the Triducken once again came up one leg short when Mike Evans failed to find pay dirt. As is tradition the last week of the regular season is the most meaningful while most also being the most meaningless of all. We got teams fighting for their playoff lives, we got teams who already clinched resting their starters and we got teams trying to ruin their draft pick. Despite all of the chaos Week 18 is bound to bring I’m confident we can pick some winners so let’s get into it.

Life’s Too Short to Bet the Under

Cowboys @ Commanders (46.5)

I’ll admit right away all the Week 18 shenanigans had me looking extra close at this week’s slate of totals. We got a lot backups playing and lots of bad weather but we do have some teams with something to play for and I saw the perfect matchup. The Cowboys are looking to win the NFC East and Washington is a spectacular dumpster fire. When these teams met earlier this season on Thanksgiving Dak and company practically covered the Over themselves. The Cowboys like to run up the score against bad teams and I expect them to do just that. It pains me to say it I do have some doubt that Howell can pull his weight but in the end it’s Dallas week and think the guys have enough pride to show up. The Over hits easy as the Cowboys roll and Washington secures the number 2 pick. 

Over 46.5

Fade Dawgs

Jaguars @ Titans (+4.5)

Simply put this is a bet that the Jaguars will choke. As bad as the Titans have been this season you know that Vrabel will have his team fired up to play spoiler. Sure the Jags stopped the bleeding last week with a win against the Panthers but that doesn’t make me feel any better about the way they’re trending. Lawrence is still a gametime decision to play and even if he does I’m not convinced that’s a good thing as he’s been a turnover prone mess. There is always a chance that the Jags actually show up for this must win game but my guess is history repeats itself and they lose outright and miss the playoffs just like they did two seasons ago. Gimme Vrabes and Titans all day.

Titans (+4.5)

Touchdown Triducken

Anytime TD Parlay: Mike Evans, Justin Fields, Ezekiel Elliott

I know what you’re saying “Wait a minute I thought I lost money on this parlay last week?” Well you did but I don’t think you will again. As I said earlier Mike Evans was the only leg to come up short and I don’t think he’s held out of the endzone against Carolina defense that he’s already score against this season. After that I once again looked to our pair of Buckeyes to get it done. Fields is playing the best ball of his pro career and another Zeke heavy script in a snow game will hopefully make the Triducken a winner once again.

Anytime TD Triducken: Mike Evans, Justin Fields, Ezekiel Elliott (+951)

Bick’s Stone Cold Lock of the Century of the Week

Jets @ Patriots (-2.5)

There aren’t many things you can count on but in my opinion you can count on the Pats beating the Jets. Sure there’s the occasional upset but even in a season when the Patriots have a worse record and are projected have a top 3 pick they’re somehow still favored. The main reason they’re favored this time is because Bill has the defense flying around making plays and forcing turnovers. Speaking of turnovers I’m expecting a bunch tomorrow especially with the sloppy weather conditions. Unfortunately Zappe might cough up the ball a couple times himself but I think the Pats are better able to capitalize on their chances. Concerns about Zappe aside I’m counting the Patriots playing hard and getting a win in what could be Belichick’s last game in New England.

Patriots (-2.5)

Happy New Year’s Eve everybody and welcome back to another week of Bick’s Picks. We’re coming off a strong Christmas weekend where all of our dawgs not only covered but won straight up. Now unfortunately, it was not a perfect week as my clever rhyming wasn’t quite enough for the Over to hit and our Christmas Triducken fell a Rashee Rice TD short. But hey there’s no time to be crying over missed picks! The year is almost over and we’re trying to end 2023 with some extra money in our pocket so let’s get into it.

Life’s Too Short to Bet the Under

Dolphins @ Ravens (46.5)

Early in the season I looked to the Fins to cover silly spreads against bad teams and to get me easy Over wins, but recently they’ve been letting me down. Here at Bick’s Picks we’re known to either hold a grudge, or we keep riding it until the wheels fall off, and this week we’re doing the latter. In my opinion some of these Overs haven’t hit because Tua’s weapons have been banged up and also Miami’s opponents haven’t been doing their part. However Tyreek should be back to full strength and the Ravens have certainly looked like a team capable of pulling their weight in an Over. Miami and Baltimore are both fresh off of winning huge interconference matchups against NFC contenders so I’m banking on them coming in hot. Either way no matter the outcome this 1pm AFC Championship preview should be a helluva game and hopefully one that features lots of touchdowns instead of field goals.

Over 46.5

Fade Dawgs

Patriots(+14) @ Bills

Oops my Massachusetts is showing again. Like I said last week I’ve had success betting against the Pats, but once again I find myself riding with them. Sure the Bills are on a winning streak but did Vegas forget this was a division game, or that the Pats beat the Bills already this season? Say what you will about the Patriots but they’re still flying around on defense for Belichick and they should be able to take advantage of how sloppy Josh Allen is with the ball. End of the day just like last week I feel like 14 is just too many points and who knows maybe the Pats will surprise us and win straight up again.

Patriots (+14)

Touchdown Triducken

Anytime TD Parlay: Mike Evans, Justin Fields, Ezekiel Elliott

I had a lot of fun rooting for last week’s winning Triducken so I figured why not run it back. Unfortunately for the Dolphins and fantasy owners Raheem Mostert currently isn’t expected to play so we’ll have to pivot. Fortunately there’s another TD machine we can turn to to fill the void and that’s Mike Evans. His 13 receiving touchdowns lead the NFL and I expect Baker to keep looking his way as they aim to clinch the NFC South. Then I’ll be counting on last week’s Buckeyes to find pay dirt again. We just need some Fields improvisation and another Zeke heavy script to give us a nice win early. As always I threw in some CMC odds just in case people wanted to put the cherry on top. 

Anytime TD Triducken: Mike Evans, Justin Fields, Ezekiel Elliott (+1357)

Obligatory CMC Quaducken: Mike Evans, Justin Fields, Ezekiel Elliott, Christian McCaffrey (+1721)

Bick’s Stone Cold Lock of the Century of the Week

Bengals @ Chiefs (-6.5)

Now I know for a fact some will be skeptical of this pick and honestly I understand. The Chiefs have been a mess for most of this season and are coming off of ugliest losses of the Mahomes era. Some claim their dynasty is dead, that Chiefs can’t even line up right and that Kelce is showing his age. And to that I say you might be right, BUT that doesn’t mean I don’t love this spot for the Chiefs. Sure the Bengals have been feistier than expected since Burrow went down, but it appears Jake Browning has finally turned back into a pumpkin. It also doesn’t help that Ja’Marr Chase is dealing with a nagging shoulder injury and even though Chase could miss the game that didn’t stop him from slandering the Chiefs secondary. Now I’m not declaring this some big get right game for the Chiefs but they’re definitely due for a bounce back and it sounds like they’ll be extra motivated to put last week’s loss behind. Gimme Taylor Swift’s favorite team by a touchdown all day.

Chiefs (-6.5)

Welcome, newcomers. The tradition of Bick’s Picks begins with the airing of grievances. I got a lot of problems with last week’s picks and now you’re gonna hear about it. The Over failed when the Jets did nothing, another NFC East dawg failed the blog and Courtland Sutton killed the Triducken before it had a chance. Now we did get some Jacoby Brissett magic and a career day from Scary Terry which briefly put the Lock in danger but the Rams came through giving us another disappointing 1-3 week. But let’s not stress last week’s losses. After all, the best way to spread Christmas cheer is picking winners for all to hear, so let’s get into it.

Life’s Too Short to Bet the Under

Cowboys @ Dolphins (49)

Every slate of games in 2023 liked Unders a lot… But the Bick who wrote Bick’s Picks did not. The Bick Hated Unders! The whole Unders season. Now, please don’t ask why. No one quite knows the reason. It could be his logic just wasn’t right. It could be, perhaps, his hats were too tight. But I think that the most likely reason of all, may have been his balls weren’t two sizes too small. Whatever the reason, his balls or his hat. You won’t catch us betting an Under you can count on that. Staring down on this slate with a big Christmas grin. The Bick knew just the game that would get us a win. The Bick liked the Boys and the Fins to get touchdowns galore. Sure these 10-4 teams are frauds, but they know how to score. Both teams average over 30 a game. If this Over doesn’t hit that sure would be lame.

Over 49

Fade Dawgs

Patriots(+7.5) @ Broncos

Once I knew it had been snowing in Denver this game was gonna make the list. Now maybe it won’t end up being an actual snow game but either way I’m expecting a low scoring affair. Now normally here at Bick’s Picks we’ve had success betting against the Patriots but it’s Christmas after all and who says we can’t have a Mile High Miracle. Now I don’t necessarily think we need a miracle we just need some 1st half Zappe magic and a heavy dose of Zeke to keep this game close. Also for all of the Patriots flaws this season their elite run defense should help make the Broncos one dimensional. That alone could be capable of getting Russ and Payton arguing like an old married couple. End of the day I feel like 7.5 is just too many points and Pats fans riding the tank could be disappointed.

Patriots (+7.5)

Bick’s Stone Cold Lock of the Century of the Week

Jaguars @ Buccaneers (+1)

Simply put this is a bet against the Jags as much as it is a pick for the Bucs if not more so. The spiraling Jaguars have lost 3 straight going from AFC contender to a 3 way tie in the AFC South. They’ve been constantly dealing with injuries with Lawrence narrowly passing concussion protocol. Even when Trevor has been on the field there has been no one sloppier with the football than this guy. Legit just dropping balls while running like he’s actually got hooves for hands. Meanwhile during this time their defense has been carved up in recent weeks by elite qbs like homeless Joe Flacco and Jake Browning. On the flip-side the Bucs and comeback player of the year candidate Baker Mayfield have won 3 straight and are now 1st in the NFC South rock fight. Sure this could be the get right game for the Jags and the let down for the Bucs but honestly this looks like two teams headed in different directions and I think those trends continue. Sure you can take the +1 but I might just take Tampa straight up.

Buccaneers (+1)

Touchdown Triduckens

Xmas Eve TD Parlay: Raheem Mostert, Justin Fields, Ezekiel Elliott

Xmas TD Parlay: Rashee Rice, Jalen Hurts, Christian McCaffery

Tis the season of giving so I figured why not deliver the people a double order of Triduckens. Last week I made the mistake of having the parlay be on two day but not this week. Our first Triducken will be for the Christmas Eve slate of games and we’ll rely on rushing TD machine Raheem Mostert. Next since I’ll be enjoying some Buckeye candies on Christmas Eve midas whale look to one of Jake’s Takes favorite Buckeyes Justin Fields to find the end zone against the Cardinals. Lastly for the night game I’m counting on another Buckeye and Zeke heavy game plan finding pay dirt. As for our Christmas Triducken we’ll start things off with Mahomes’ new favorite wideout Rashee Rice, followed by a little Tush Push and finish things off with our obligatory CMC score. We’re due for a Triducken win so here’s hoping these birds aren’t stolen by Bumpuses dogs.

Xmas Eve Triducken: Raheem Mostert, Justin Fields, Ezekiel Elliott (+895)

Xmas Triducken: Rashee Rice, Jalen Hurts, Christian McCaffery (+416)

The Rashard Mendenhall Better Than Ur GOAT Bowl

Ravens (+6) @ 49ers

For those of you who don’t know, retired Steelers running back Rashard Mendenhall gifted the social media platform formerly known as Twitter with the controversial idea of an All-Black vs. All-White Pro Bowl. The internet certainly had their fun embracing this debate but outside of Madden simulations this marquee Christmas Night matchup between the Ravens v Niners is likely the closest we’ll get. Cancel-worthy jokes aside this really is the matchup of the week and very likely could be a Super Bowl preview. Both these 11-3 teams are the #1 seeds in their respective conferences and are led by MVP candidate QBs. Not to mention CMC who’s making a very real case to be the first running back since Adrian Peterson in 2008 to win the MVP. Now as much as I’ve counted on CMC to win us money this season, this time I’m counting LJ8. Simply put the reason is because of the success he’s had against the NFC. Lamar is 19-1 as a starter against the NFC and those are numbers I can’t ignore. Let’s hope those numbers don’t lie and Santa delivers this dawg heavy blog one more win.

Ravens (+6)

Nothing like a 1-3 week to humble us a little bit. Sure the Over hit but it was otherwise a disappointing week. Once again I made the mistake of backing the underdog Eagles, the Niners played with their food too much failing to cover against Drew Lock and Kenny Etienny was the only one that got the memo for the Triducken. Undeterred by a losing week I’m eager to bounce back and pick some winners. Thankfully the NFL is eager to take advantage of the gap in college football by giving us some random Saturday games starting week 15 early so let’s get into it.

Life’s Too Short to Bet the Under

Jets @ Dolphins (37.5)

Simply put anything under 40 points this season for the Dolphins is stealing. Now I’m sure part of this line being so low is because of Tyreek Hill’s ankle. Sure that is reason for concern for fantasy owners but I don’t think it’ll impact the Over too much. The Fins should be well rested looking to bounce back at home so I’m sure McDaniel will have something cooked up to attack the vaunted Jets defense. On the flip side AFC Offensive Player of the Week Zach Wilson should do enough to help us cover if Tua and company do struggle some. Close game or Dolphins blow out I think we get another easy Over at Hard Rock.

Over 37.5

Fade Dawgs

Cowboys(+2.5) @ Bills

Thankfully the Eagles aren’t dawgs this week so at the very least I won’t be fooled a third time. That doesn’t mean I can’t take the cheese on another unexpected NFC East dawg. Now I’ll admit I have been on record as recently as last week calling the Cowboys frauds and deep down I still believe that. However I’ve been down on the Bills all season and even at home I don’t think their defense will be able to slow down Dallas. Not to mention we found out how Sean McDermott teaches teamwork so I’ll be sticking with AMERICA’S team thank you very much.

Cowboys (+2.5)

Touchdown Triducken

Anytime TDs Parlay:  Cooper Kupp, Courtland Sutton, Christian McCaffery

Whelp it was bound to happen our first TD Triducken came up short. Honestly it’s because we messed with formula. Taking McCaffery out of the main parlay messed yo everything. Some of you might be saying “But CMC didn’t score last week” and to that I say are you forgetting the impact Bick’s Picks has on the world of sports? But anyways this week we’re not gonna over think things and we’ll stick to winning strategies like fading Washington’s defense. As always Washington loves to leave a team’s best weapon open so I expect Cooper Kupp will find the end zone. Honestly you could also take Puka Nacua or Kyren Williams think all 3 have a good chance to score. Next is Courtland Sutton who’s been a TD machine for the resurgent Broncos. Sutton has scored a TD in every single road game this season and I bet he finds the end zone against vulnerable Lions defense. Lastly it’s CMC. Sure the odds for him aren’t great but he’s certainly due after failing to find pay dirt last week.

Anytime TDs: Cooper Kupp, Courtland Sutton, Christian McCaffery (+415)

Bick’s Stone Cold Lock of the Century of the Week

Commanders @ Rams (-6.5)

Before I start slandering my own team I wanna address the fact that the Lock has not been much of a Lock. I expect better and you deserve better. To that point this week should be an easy win for the Lock. You’d think the bye week would help this team but this is a Ron Rivera squad we’re talking about somehow they’ll come out completely flat and will trail all game. Now the Rams did just lose an OT heartbreaker to the Ravens but they continue to put up points in bunches and should have no problem against the worst defense in the league. Brian Robinson is out with a hamstring injury leaving the run game in the butter fingers of Gibson and the rookie Chris Rodriguez which will likely make the offense more one dimensional. I of course love Sam Howell and I’m sure he’ll do his best to keep the game close but lately he’s been trying to do too much leading to very costly mistakes. Maybe Washington surprises me but I quite literally wouldn’t bet on it.

Rams (-6.5)

Thanks to a solid 3-1 week we’re back above .500 here at Bick’s Picks with a record of 18-17-1 on the season. Tyreek ran right past Washington’s ass, the Touchdown Triducken made a triumphant return and although the Chargers may have only scored 6 points that’s all we needed. However surprise surprise my dawg failed me when the Iggles got humbled at home soiling an otherwise perfect week. Looking at this week I won’t lie it’s an ugly slate featuring some quarterback matchups that will make you question what you’re doing with your Sunday. I also can’t rely on fading Washington’s defense or Mac Jones this week but hey just because the games look gross doesn’t mean we can’t win some money so let’s get into it.

Life’s Too Short to Bet the Under

Colts @ Bengals (44)

Whelp here we are again another week, another slate of low totals. Thankfully that hasn’t been a problem for us here at Bick’s Picks however with Washington on bye and Miami on MNF I had to look outside my old reliables and dive into the pool of backup quarterbacks. This week potentially features at least 9 backup quarterbacks the most in nearly a decade. So why not jump on the bandwagon of the hottest backup in town Jakey Spinrate. Fresh off a 354 yard 3 TD performance I’m banking on him to keep on slinging it for a Bengals offense still full of talent. On the flipside the Minshew has the Colts on a 4 game win streak and outside of a rock fight with the Pats in Germany the Colts have put up at least 20 points in every game. Don’t think we have to sweat this one out too much, gimme an easy Over hit to start the day.

Over 44

Fade Dawgs

Eagles (+3.5) @ Cowboys

I said it last week so I might as well say it this week I gotta get one of these Eagles picks eventually right? I admit my luck with picking the Eagles hasn’t been great but an important part of Bick’s Picks is having a short memory. So I’m gonna forget the fact that the Eagles just got dog walked at home by the Niners and bet against the fraudulent Cowboys. Sure the Cowboys have a lot of pretty stats but it’s mainly because they’ve run up the score on weaker competition. Similar to the Eagles they got embarrassed by the Niners and they already lost week 9 in Philly. So in my mind the Cowboys can’t beat a good team until they prove me wrong. Admittedly those pretty stats do make a compelling argument for Dallas especially since they’re at home but my plums say Eagles. I also love the +3.5 because even if the Cowboys do pull it out I see the pivotal NFC Beast showdown being a shootout that comes down to a field goal. So be a goldfish like me, forget those other losses and ride with the Eags again.

Eagles (+3.5)

Touchdown Triducken

Anytime TDs Parlay: David Montgomery, Travis Etienne Jr, Justin Jefferson 

I’m just gonna address the elephant in the room CMC is not featured in the Triducken for the first time. Now don’t get me wrong I actually still love CMC to score but the problem is so does Vegas. The odds for a CMC TD are -380 which to me is just nuts for an anytime TD. I do still think he finds the endzone so I added a little Quaducken at the bottom for y’all but don’t worry I feel just as good about these other guys. First up, I like Mongomery to find the endzone against his old team. He’s clearly established himself as the goal line closer of Detroit’s offense scoring a TD in 4 straight games since his return from injury. Next I love my guy Kenny Etienny to find the endzone for the Jags as I expect him to be leaned on while Trevor is gimping around. Lastly I’m counting on JJ the Jet plane to touch down in the end zone on Sunday. I fully expect the Passtronaut to be looking his way all game and you know he’s gonna be trying to make a big play after missing so much time. It’s unfortunate we can’t rely on betting against Washington’s defense but I still expect we’ll all be hitting the Griddy this afternoon.

Anytime TDs: David Montgomery, Travis Etienne Jr, Justin Jefferson (+888)

Obligatory CMC Quaducken: David Montgomery, Travis Etienne Jr, Justin Jefferson, Christian McCaffrey (+1120)

Bick’s Stone Cold Lock of the Century of the Week

Seahawks @ 49ers (-13.5)

What can I say I’m a sucker for a big spread so why not pick the biggest one of the week. Nevermind the fact I think Niners are gonna absolutely wax the Seahawks. I bet against the Niners last week and I won’t make that mistake again because they easily look like the best team in football now that they’re healthy. Not that I’m the biggest Geno believer but there’s a good chance we see Drew Lock so I’m surprised this line is only -13.5. I say get it now because San Fran is gonna roll. 

49ers (-13.5)

We had our first push here at Bick’s Picks resulting in a 1-1-1 week. The Jags v Texans Over bounced off the crossbar, the Giants finally brought an end to Mac Jones in New England and the Eagles didn’t lose us money this time. Not that I’m counting personally but for those of you that are, last week’s results gives Bick’s Picks a 15-16-1 record on the season. Now that kind of mediocrity might be acceptable to the Jeff Fisher’s and Ron Rivera’s of the world but not here at Bick’s Picks. Week 13 we aim to get above .500 and to help us do that the Touchdown Triducken makes it return. Looking at this slate I immediately saw some potential wins so enough dilly dallying let’s get into it. 

Life’s Too Short to Bet the Under

Dolphins @ Commanders (49.5)

Boy did I ever pick a great season to start picking Overs. Through the first 12 weeks of the season Unders have a 106-73-1 record which is the best start for Unders in the Wild Card era. I won’t lie, this weekend looks like another slate of Unders but I definitely expect a lot of scoring in this one. Jack Del Rio may be gone but there’s no way Ron Rivera’s return to play-calling leads to anything but disaster against the best offense in football. Washington has allowed a league-high 29.2 points a game and has been absolutely abysmal at home giving up 146 in their last four games at Fed-Ex Field. The Fins get a 40 burger on their own and Howell puts up enough points to cover.

Over 48

Fade Dawgs

49ers @ Eagles (+3)

This is the game of the week so why not roll the dice on the Eags again. I mean I gotta get one of these Eagles picks eventually right?  Frankly, I’m surprised that they’re the underdogs in this matchup. Maybe Vegas thinks the 10-1 Eagles are due for a loss but I’m not so sure. Ever since their loss to the Jets they’ve rattled off wins against the Dolphins, Cowboys, Chiefs and Bills so the way I see it the Niners are just next in line. They’re also benefiting from getting Lane Johnson back which should help add some much needed protection for MVP favorite Jalen Hurts. Don’t get me wrong now that they’re healthy, Purdy and Company have been cooking with gas having won their last 3 games by an average of 20.7 points. This is why I’m NFC Championship rematch to be a close one worth watching so dust off your dog mask and bet the Iggles.

Eagles (+3)

Touchdown Triducken

Anytime TDs Parlay: Derrick Henry, Tyreek Hill & Christian McCaffrey 

Much like the first time we did the Touchdown Triducken I’ll be picking the three TD scorers I like best this Sunday. For my first TD I’m looking to Tractorcito who has spoken openly about wanting to redeem himself for a cringe-worthy week 5 performance against the Colts. There’s plenty of reason to believe Henry can do so as December has always been Henry’s month. He averages 5.47 yards per rush which is the second-most by any player in any month since 1950. Next up is Reek who I fully expect to take advantage of a Washington’s secondary that has been getting carved up all year. After all, no defense loves to leave a team’s number one threat uncovered more than Washington. Then last it’s CMC because I trust that he finds the endzone on Sundays until proven otherwise. 

Anytime TDs: Derrick Henry, Tyreek Hill, Christian McCaffrey (+421)

Bick’s Stone Cold Lock of the Century of the Week

Chargers (-5.5) @ Patriots

I’ve said this before it gives me no pleasure to kick a man while they’re down but we’re not here to make friends we’re here to make money. And as I did before I tried to talk myself into the Patriots but just couldn’t do it. Sure the Patriots have had Herbert’s number in the past but I simply don’t think that matters. Unfortunately I think we’ll get to see why Bill gave Mac such a long leash when we get the full Zappe experience. Maybe I’m wrong but my plums are telling me to also consider a Chargers D/ST TD prop. I’m sure the Patriots will make us sweat it out and make it frustratingly close for their fans but in the end the Chargers win by a TD getting the Pats one step closer to the number 1 overall pick. 

Chargers (-5.5)

First things first I want to start off by shaming the Lions a little bit for ruining what would’ve been a perfect holiday blog. Although I will admit I shoulder some of the blame because I did see Dan Campbell’s opinions on Thanksgiving foods before the game and those should’ve been huge red flags. First of all he’s eating ham on Thanksgiving when everyone knows you do that on Easter or Christmas. Then he slandered stuffing which I should’ve never let slide. But thankfully it wasn’t all bad for the Lions, LaPorta and Montgomery both did their part for our successful Touchdown Triduckens. While on the subject I’ve heard some of our readers enjoyed the TD parlays so they could make a reappearance next week. I mean who am I to deprive the people of winning picks? Speaking of which, let’s get into it.

Life’s Too Short to Bet the Under

Jaguars @ Texans (48)

Now I know I sound like a broken record but once again another week another slate of low totals. At this point it might seem like I’m just being dramatic but this week is especially low with it being the fifth lowest O/U average since 2011. But there’s a very good reason for these low totals this weekend features A LOT of matchups that scream Under like Pats@Giants, Panthers@Titans, Steelers@Bengals and Browns@Broncos. I stayed clear of all of these games focusing instead on the higher totals and teams that can be trusted to score the ball. I’ll admit I didn’t necessarily think the Texans would be one of those teams but here we are. C.J. Stroud is a lock for rookie of the year and a sneaky MVP candidate. Even last week when Stroud made mistakes he just kept on slinging it in a win over the Cardinals, throwing for over 330 yards for the third game in a row. On the flipside the Jaguars certainly have the weapons to put up points if Trevor Lawrence can avoid running around like a drunken baby giraffe. The last time these teams met early in the year the over hit with ease so I’m betting it does again in what some might consider the game of the week.

Over 48

Fade Dawgs

Patriots @ Giants (+4.5)

I’ve had the pleasure of watching both these teams a lot this season and all I can say is we’re in for quite the display. I’ll keep it short and sweet. I don’t know who wins this game but I do know it will be ugly and it will also be close. Unfortunately Patriots fans won’t get to see Grier but we will get to see if Tommy Devito actually has the makings of a varsity athlete or if that was simply the mirage of playing a Washington defense. Either way neither team is good enough to pull away from the other and in the end I think this game is settled by a field goal by either team.

Giants (+4.5)

Bick’s Stone Cold Lock of the Century of the Week

Bills @ Eagles (-3)

The reason this week’s blog was up so late was my indecisiveness over my lock of the week. I really wanted to put the Stillers in this spots because they historically feasted on QBs making their first career start but I’ve been hurt too many times by the tiny hands of Kenny Pickett. Instead I’m gonna look to mush the shit out of the Eagles. Loyal readers here at Bick’s Picks will remember the last time the Eagles were featured as my lock they lost for the first time ever to Jets. That happens to be the Eagles only loss of the season so why not tempt fate again. I can’t ignore the Eagles are definitely due for a let down and the Bills are far more desperate for a win but I don’t think it matters. I expect the Eagles to dominate the trenches and for Josh Allen to continue to be careless with the ball extending his interception streak to 8 games. Gimme the Eags all day.

Eagles (-3)

Leading up to this week the people have asked if Bick’s Picks would make a holiday appearance. In response I’ll paraphrase the late, great John Madden: there’s no place that I would rather be today on Thanksgiving than right here, right now than placing some bets on a football game. There’s just certain things that go together. The turkey, the family, the gambling, the tradition, football. And we have it all today. We also have a lot of big spreads which could mean blowouts or maybe just maybe a stunning upset. Since it’s a special blog we’ll switch it up for fun and hopefully win ourselves some extra money for Black Friday shopping. Now let’s dig into the picks.

Feasting Favorites Teaser

Lions (-6.5), Cowboys (-6.5), 49ers (-6.5)

Usually we’re a fan of the dawgs here at Bick’s Picks but not today. Historically Thanksgiving has been a BIG day for favorites. Since 2000 favorites have been 39-23 against the spread and have a truly lopsided 51-11 straight up record. If we look at each game there’s plenty of reason to believe that all the favorites will deliver. The 8-2 Lions flat out look like one of the best teams in football and already took care of the Packers in Lambeau earlier in the season. The 7-3 Cowboys have been dominating bad competition and Washington’s defense just got cooked by Tommy “makings of a varsity athlete” Devito. The 7-3 Niners look dominant again now that they’re healthy and the Seahawks come into the game with both Kenneth Walker and Geno Smith banged up. Now you avid bettors will notice I moved all these lines down because the actual lines are Lions (-8), Cowboys (-13.5) and 49ers (-7). If all these lines close at 7 points favorites it’ll be the first time since the inception of the triple slate that we’ve had three touchdown favorites. Honestly I don’t see any Turkey Day upsets happening so why not parlay all three games together. John Madden once said if you want big ol’ turkeys, you have to give ’em more legs. Parlay the favorites however you like and I doubt you’ll be disappointed.

Lions (-6.5), Cowboys (-6.5) and 49ers (-6.5) (+321)

Lions (-8), Cowboys (-13.5) and 49ers (-7) (+601)

Touchdown Triducken

Anytime TDs Parlay: David Montgomery, CeeDee Lamb & Christian McCaffrey

In case you can’t tell on Thanksgiving I’m the guy who likes to put a little bit of everything on their plate. So I’m treating myself to another Turkey Day parlay. For this one I’m borrowing the name Madden accidentally gave the turducken when he first introduced it to America in 1997. The three TD scorers I picked frankly just seemed to me to be the most likely to get the job done. Although Gibbs has been hot, Montgomery remains the Lions’ goal line running back and had 3 TDs the last time these teams met earlier in the year. Washington’s secondary has been getting carved up all year and we just love to leave a team’s number one threat uncovered so Ceedee should find the endzone. Do I have to explain CMC? Now I will admit I did consider LaPorta so we could have a running back TD, inside a wide receiver TD, inside a tight end TD to truly complete the Madden homage but felt like Montgomery was the safer pick. 

Anytime TDs: David Montgomery, CeeDee Lamb & Christian McCaffrey (+286)

Anytime TDs: Sam LaPorta, CeeDee Lamb & Christian McCaffrey (+475)

Bezos’ Leftovers

Dolphins (-10) @ Jets

Here we are once again forced to watch another thrilling game brought to us by the fine people at Amazon. But seriously it doesn’t matter how much Amazon spent, they can’t seem to buy a good game. I mean they really spent $100M just to share UConn legend Tim Boyle with America. Sure we don’t have to watch Zach Wilson, but I’m highly skeptical things get any better for the Jets offense. Remember when I mentioned Boyle was a UConn legend? Yea the dude made eight career starts at QB over his three seasons at UConn with 1-13 TD-INT ratio. How this guy is a starting QB in the NFL is truly beyond me. Respect to the Jets defense but I got the feeling they’re gonna be on the field all day. I’ve looked to the Fins to cover big spreads before and barring a made up report by Charissa Thompson about a miracle Rodgers comeback coming true I think they get the job done for me again. 

Dolphins (-10) @ Jets

Not that it should surprise anyone but we had another 3-0 week here at Bick’s Picks. The alopecia king and Jameis hit the over, Sam Howell covered in spite of Ron Rivera and the Patriots should’ve just left Mac Jones in Germany. However this week we can’t rely on the winning formula of the Frankfurt Games and Washington being a dawg but it is a BIG dawg weekend. 6 of the 13 spreads this weekend are more than TD so I’m confident we can keep the gravy train rolling. I’ll admit I did briefly question some of these picks but at the end of the day Bick’s Picks is about trusting with your plums so let’s get into it.

Life’s Too Short to Bet the Under

Steelers @ Browns (32.5)

Stop me if you’ve heard this one before but another week, another slate of low totals. But this week is special because we got one of our lowest totals in a while. Draftkings has the line at 33 but I’m seeing 32.5 on a lot of other apps which would tie it for the lowest total in a decade. Now I’ll admit there’s reason to believe that the Under will hit because both these teams have dominant defenses and less than ideal qb situations. Not to mention that last game that had a 32.5 total was a matchup last season between the Saints and Browns that ended 17-10. But when these teams met earlier in the season Pitt came out on top 26-22. So I’m betting we get enough scoring in this somehow very meaningful divisional matchup between two 6-3 teams. 

Over 32.5

Fade Dawgs

Jets (+8) @ Bills

I won’t lie I was very tempted to pick the Under for this game as my lock but I like this line as much. Let’s address the elephant in the room. Yes I know Zach Wilson exists and although I’m sure I’ll regret saying this I’m frankly not worried. Wilson is 2-1 against the Bills and the Jets defense should give their offense plenty of short fields because Josh Allen has regressed into a turnover machine. He leads the lead in picks and now faces a secondary that’s only allowed 224 yards passing the last 3 weeks combined. The spiraling Bills are 2-4 of their last 6 games all of which have been settled by less than TD. Sure they sacrificed their OC Ken Dorsey to the football gods but that won’t fix what ails them. Gimme the J-E-T-S.

Jets (+8)

Bick’s Stone Cold Lock of the Century of the Week

Buccaneers @ 49ers (-13.5)

Not gonna lie the lock this week was tricky because there’s just so many games I like. I like the Jet/Bills Under, Chargers/Packers Over, Jags -6.5 and hell I even like the Cowboys -10.5 but end of the day I always came back to this game. I saw the line start -12 so I’m guess I’m not alone in liking the Niners but how can you not. Sure they had that skid while Deebo was out and Purdy was playing concussed but now back at full strength they look dangerous. Their new look defense absolutely dismantled Jags 34-3 bringing an abrupt end to their 5 game win streak. The Niners D forced 4 turnovers and had 5 sacks on Trevor Lawrence including one by the newly acquired Chase Young so expect Baker Mayfield to be running for his life all game. I’ll admit I don’t trust Purdy but now with all his weapons healthy the Kyle Shanahan system should do all the heavy lifting. Also the CMC TD streak sadly came to an end last week but I’m guessing they’re gonna wanna start another one so add an anytime CMC TD to the bet if you wanna get spicy

49ers (-13.5)