Week 11 is here people and we’re coming to you early since we’ll be locked into the NFL’s historic debut in Spain this morning. Now I’ll admit I wasn’t always a fan but I’ve warmed up to the NFL Europe games. It’s nice to have the option to quite literally watch football all day long. Sure these morning games aren’t always the best product but I appreciate them like a prelim card for a UFC event. Let’s not get ahead of ourselves though we’ve got last week to quickly dwell on. Week 10 was by no means a losing week but even though we went 2-1 it kinda felt like one. Sure the Pats won it for the Dawg against the Bucs but I can’t say that I enjoyed being right about what Detroit did to Washington. The Lions certainly seemed like they were trying to send a message and I guess my silver lining is that they didn’t hit the total all by themselves. Now as for actual loss the Lock, it turns out I was actually a week off because the Panthers were the sad cats all along. It also seems like parlays might just be cursed on this blog as Brady’s Parlay of the Day has hit a rough patch, fingers crossed today he turns things around. But that’s enough about last week there’s plenty of wins to be had on this slate so grab a coffee and a churro and let’s get into it.

Life’s Too Short to Bet the Under Early Bird Edition

Commanders @ Dolphins (47.5)

Buccaneers @ Bills (46.5)

Yup that’s right TWO Overs. The one benefit of being up early for this NFL Europe game is that I can actually tell you to bet on it! Now I wouldn’t be so bold as to tell you to pick Washington, I’m far too pessimistic right now but I expect a fair bit of scoring in Madrid. Sure both teams are ass but we got a couple flying Hawaiians at quarterback looking to put on a show for the world and I think Mariota and Tua will do enough to get us to that total. Now the reason there’s a second Over is I expect some people to miss the early game. I can forgive people for not being locked into a matchup of 3-7 disappointments. However, a game that everyone should try to watch is Bucs vs Bills. This slate is full of good matchups and this might be one of the more entertaining ones. Both are winning teams with championship aspirations coming off losses so you gotta think both are eager to right the ship. Either way we’re obviously rooting for a day full of touchdowns so let’s hope these two early matchups deliver.

WAS/MIA Over 47.5 (-110)

TAM/BUF Over 46.5 (-112)

Fade Dawgs

Packers @ Giants (+7)

I’m gonna be honest this might be the first and last time that you see us bet the Giants here at Bick’s Picks but we gotta support Jaboo. Now that Daboll is finally gone New York is doing the right thing and giving the people what they want. The #FreeJameis posts have paid off and we also get the chance to scratch that “head coach just got fired itch” so you know I had to be on this game. Add that with the fact something is just off about the Packers. Personally I’ve always thought Jordan Love was stinky but good lord that display against the Eagles on MNF was just gross. Now that I’ve said this there’s a good chance the Pack will finally wake up but at least we can count on Jameis to make it entertaining.

Giants +7 (-105)

Brady’s Parlay of the Day

The Parlay: Buccaneers +5.5, SEA/LAR Over 48.5, 49ers ML

My apologies, I have really sucked the past two weeks going 1/3 each time and I’m going to try my hardest to get us back in the win column this week. 

The 1st leg is the Bucs vs Bills, this is shaping up to be a really competitive game this weekend which makes me wonder why Tampa is getting 5.5 points here. Buffalo has been inconsistent over the past month or so and Tampa is coming off a loss to the best team in the league. Both teams need this game and I’m feeling a close one either way, take the Bucs with the spread. 

Leg number 2, another game that shapes up to be a great to watch as the Rams and Seahawks face off for first place in the NFC West. Two very good offenses here makes me think about a lot of points being put up in this one. Let’s take the Over here at 48.5 

Final leg of the day and we are staying in the NFC West. The 49ers face the Cardinals who are still without Kyler Murray and now have added Marvin Harrison Jr to the list of players who will miss this game. The Niners get Brock Purdy back this week who could be a little rusty but I still think they get the job done against Arizona. Take the Niners moneyline.

Brady’s Parlay of the Day: Buccaneers +5.5, SEA/LAR Over 48.5, 49ers ML (+456)

Bick’s Stone Cold Lock of the Century of the Week

Seahawks @ Rams (-3)

Last week was definitely one of those times where I got too cute with the Lock. I spoke with several of you and I had no explanation for why I really thought the Panthers would cover. That said I’m not gonna claim I have rational thinking behind half my picks. I mean you read the Dawg today didn’t you? But I digress this small tangent has nothing to do with today’s pick because I can tell you why I like the Rams and that’s Matt Stafford. Now admittedly some of you know I’m not his biggest fan but I can’t deny how good he’s been this season. He’s also why I give the edge to LA over Seattle because I certainly trust him more than I do Sam Darnold. The former Jet certainly looks much better than his days of seeing ghosts but I think Jared Verse and company could be just the defense to bring back some of those old bad habits. Now I’ll admit I wish the line was still the -2.5 it opened at but the -3 is better than the -3.5 I was seeing yesterday so let’s just hope Puka and Davante score enough it doesn’t matter.

Rams -3 (-120)