Week 7 is here people and can we just talk for a second about how crazy a start this season has gotten off to? I know the NFL loves its parity but it’s getting a little ridiculous. It’s obviously made things tough here at Bick’s Picks but it’s not just us as this has been one of the worst starts for public bettors for a long time. The bots over at Action Network say that teams with 60%+ of tickets this season are 15-36 against the spread through six weeks which is the worst record through 6 weeks in the 23 year history of their stats. Heck it only gets worse the more confident the public is as teams with 70%+ tickets this season are 4-16 ATS and a staggering 0-7 ATS when those teams are at home. Needless to say there might be some truth to fading the public and I’m hoping you faded us last week as we farted out another 1-2 performance. First the Ravens finally decided to play enough defense to kill the Over and at the same I foolishly picked the Browns as my Dawg, who they clearly made a mistake in letting Flacco go if they wanted to beat Pittsburgh. Even 

Brady’s Parlay of the Day came up a leg short as SNF couldn’t deliver enough points. Thankfully at least the Pats were able to contain the Rattler just enough to secure the Lock. As always we can’t sweat our losses because there’s still plenty of football left and money to be made so let’s get into it.

Life’s Too Short to Bet the Under

Commanders @ Cowboys (54.5)

Remember all that talk about fading the public? Well throw that out because we’re not betting a spread instead we’re getting nuts and betting the biggest total of the season so far. Heck not only is this largest total of 2025 this likely close as the highest for a Washington vs Dallas game since 1980. Stats like that might give others pause but we’re undettered here at Bick’s Picks because we’ve seen how bad both of these defenses can be. I also have faith that my guy Jayden will be eager to respond after fumbling away a victory on MNF. Along with that faith I also have the ever growing dread that Dak will be able to get whatever he wants. That goon is 11-2 against us and it’s hard for me to see us slowing him down especially with Ceedee back. Lord knows we would never bet against JD5 and company but I definitely hope we can come out on top of what everyone is expecting to be a shootout in Arlington.

Over 54.5 (-105)

Fade Dawgs

Patriots @ Titans (+6.5)

The Vrabel Bowl is here and you had to expect us to have a little skin in this game. Now I know I’ve been on your side all this season but sorry Pats fans not this time. Believe me it’s nothing personal but after that whole fade the public spiel I had to follow through. Not to mention how could we not bet on the first interim coach game of the season. Sure the Titans suck but this is a tough spot for New England. They’re already trying to do something that hasn’t happened since 1961 and that’s win 3 consecutive regular season road games. So clearly a tough spot for any team but even more so battling the interim coach bump. Now as someone who really lets the numbers influence their bets I’m obligated to say I HATE that the line moved this morning. +7 is a lot nicer than the +6.5 we’re left with or the +6 I’m seeing some places. So if you can manage to find that half a point take it or heck tease up to +7.5 to play it safe. Either way even though I’m not expecting an upset we are hoping this dead cat bounces just enough to cover for the Dawg. 

Titans +6.5 (-112)

Brady’s Parlay of the Day

The Parlay: Eagles -1.5, Giants +7.5, LAC/IND Over 48.5

I first want to apologize for the Lions lackluster performance on SNF last week and killing our chances at making some cash last week. So far BPOTD is 2-3 and we are hoping to get back in the win column this week.

Leg number 1, Carson Wentz gets to face off against the team that drafted him and the Eagles are coming off an embarrassing loss on Thursday Night Football to the Giants. Wentz hasn’t looked terrible in relief of injured JJ McCarthy but give me the Eagles in this one in a get right game with extra time to prepare. Take the Eagles -1.5. 

Leg number 2 features a game that no one probably has any interest in as the Giants and Broncos face off in Denver. The Broncos barely beat the awful excuse for a football team in the Jets last week in London and now they get the giants coming off a big win against the defending champs. Somehow the Broncos are favored by a good margin in this one and I’m trying to figure that one out. Give me the Giants +7.5. 

Final leg of the day, this time we will avoid the night game and wrap up the results early. Hopefully it will hit this week for us! We are going to try the over again in a game featuring two teams that know how to put points on the board. The Colts go back to LA where they had their only loss of the season to the Rams. This time they face the Chargers and I’m expecting both teams to put up good numbers in this one. Take the Over at 48.5

Brady’s Parlay of the Day: Eagles -1.5, Giants +7.5, LAC/IND Over 48.5 (+584)

Bick’s Stone Cold Lock of the Century of the Week

Panthers (-1.5) @ Jets

Well since we already bet the highest total of the year and backed the worst team in football I figured why not get reckless with the Lock too. Now some of you might question why this is a risk but don’t let the Rico Dowdle renaissance blind you from the fact this is the Panthers. This team hasn’t won a game as a favorite since 2021 and are a gross 0-10 in that time. Now I know what you’re thinking, wait a minute don’t you love silly stats like that? And you’re right I love them but I simply can’t shake another stat and that’s -10 yards passing. I don’t care what excuses Aaron Glenn wants to make for Justin Fields, a performance like that is simply atrocious. Sure he almost literally can’t be that bad again but with Garrett Wilson unlikely to play I can’t imagine things get that much better. So be like me and ignore all the Carolina red flags and bet against the goddamn Jets.

Panthers -1.5 (+100)