Week 18 is here people which means our first full season of Bick’s Picks is coming to an end. Unfortunately it wasn’t a banner year for us as we have a 35-43 record going into this final week. However if you’ve followed us this season you’d know my inability to pick parlays shoulders much of the blame. My parlay record is a dismal 2-15 for the season leaving me with a decent 33-28 record without them. There’s a chance parlays could be left off the blog next season but the way I see it it’s not like I could do worse next season right? Now before I get ahead of myself and dump on parlays too much, it bears mentioning that the Tiersducken actually got its first win last week. Maybe some arbitrary bias was just what my parlays needed all along. On top of that the Eagles ran over the Cowboys on their way to covering the Over and even though it was so much closer than it needed to be Washington answered the call covered for the Lock in OT. Alas the perfect week was not meant to be as not even Chuba Hubbard actually playing was gonna save the Panthers from getting blown out by Baker and the Bucs. As always we shouldn’t dwell on our losses for too long after all we got one more chance for a perfect week so let’s get into it.

Life’s Too Short to Bet the Under

Seahawks @ Rams (38.5)

Just like last week this Sunday slate once again is giving us a bunch of low totals to choose from with 5 games under 40 and only two games with totals projected over 45. Now I’m sure many of you are aware these low totals are a result of teams resting players or simply having nothing to play for. I tried my best to find a game with some juice and a low total but this was the best I could come up with. Despite the Rams resting Stafford and some other starters this matchup features teams with winning records and that’s enough for me. Although they were eliminated from the postseason the Geno and the Seahawks have some significant financial incentives to play for. Then on the flip side I don’t see the Rams just rolling over against a division rival. These teams have played some low scoring affairs in recent weeks but I think a more laid back Week 18 works in the Overs favor.

Over 38.5 (-108)

Fade Dawgs

Chiefs (+10.5) @ Broncos

Sorry Pip I gotta do it. Sure the Broncos desperately need this win and sure the Chiefs are starting Wentz and all the backups but I simply can’t ignore a 15-1 team with a double digit spread. Denver should win this game and Vegas seems to believe they will but I think they’ll have to sweat it out. Sure a bunch of starters are out for the Chiefs but Andy Reid will still be holding his Waffle House menu on the sidelines. Reid is 5-0 since 2007 when his team is a double digit underdog and I highly doubt this Kansas City team will just roll over for a division rival. I hope the Broncos punch their postseason ticket but I don’t think they cover the spread if they do.

Chiefs +10.5 (-105)

The Tiersducken

Jayden Daniels. Need I say more?

1. Jayden Daniels

2. Bo Nix

3. Drake Maye 

4. Michael Penix Jr

6. Caleb Williams 

6. Spencer Rattler

Rather than bore you with a paragraph of hyperboles I’ll just say that I’m so thankful to have Jayden Daniels as my quarterback. In just one season he’s already led Washington to at least 11 wins which we haven’t seen since our Super Bowl winning 1991 season. Needless to say, I’m a very happy man. As for the rest of the list they get to stay exactly where they are. I will tip my cap to Penix for forcing OT and playing a pretty good game against Washington but man that lefty delivery can be kinda gross. As for the picks I’ll keep it real simple. Everyone sucks but Jayden. You’ll notice Drake Maye is absent but that’s only because pretty much all of his props are unavailable. Vegas seems to think he might not play for long but either way he escapes the wrath of my interception predictions. Fade it, dread it or avoid it, here’s the last Tiersducken of the season.

Tiersducken Parlay: Jayden Daniels 2+ Passing TDs, Michael Penix Jr. Over .5 Interceptions, Spencer Rattler Over .5 Interceptions, Bo Nix Over .5, Caleb Williams Over .5, (+2146)  

Bick’s Stone Cold Lock of the Century of the Week

Commanders (Over 26.5) @ Cowboys

Oops! Would you look at that my bias is showing again. Truth be told there were a handful of bets I considered but my brain has been saying Beat Dallas all week. Now typically this would be a spread bet but when creeped to a full 7 points I thought this was the better bet. Sure Washington is on to the playoffs but they still have seeding to play for and I think the players are eager to get some revenge for losing earlier in the season. All the starters who are healthy are playing and there’s no reason that the offense shouldn’t be all gas and no brakes in an effort to blow out Dallas. Add that with the fact Trey Lance is starting there’s no reason we shouldn’t win and hit this total.

Commanders Team Total Over 26.5 (+102)