I took the cheese and I paid for it. After a perfect 3-0 Thursday opener the Packers let me down on Friday losing to the Eagles in a slippery track meet of a game. I’ve only really got myself to blame but I’m also gonna give a special shout out to the terrible field conditions in Sao Paulo. No chance the NFL goes back to Brazil anytime soon if the injury Jordan Love sustained with 6 seconds left causes him to miss any significant time. But enough complaining we’ve got a loss to chase and here we are once again with an unpredictably close Week 1 slate staring back at us. If this year seems especially close, that’s because it is. For the first time since 2010 we’ve only got one game with a spread of 7 or more points. As a result I’m seeing all the supposed “experts” passing on games rather than making picks. That might fly over at The Ringer or Action Network, but not here at Bick’s Picks where no spread is too close, no total too high. As I’m a creature of habit you should all be familiar with our format of an Over, an Underdog, a TD Parlay and a Lock. Who knows maybe I’ll get spicy and shake things up down the line but Week 1 already looks tough enough to predict without changing up my picks so let’s get into it.

Life’s Too Short to Bet the Under

Cowboys @ Browns (41)

There’s a bunch of games opening at 41 but for some reason this one keeps calling my name especially since the line keeps dropping. Not entirely sure the reason but this has been the most popular Under bet for Week 1, and as a result the line moved from 44.5 at open to the 41 it is now. Not that I need an excuse to fade the public but my hands are tied in situations like this. These teams were a combined 22-14 for the O/U last season and as good as their defenses might be I’m expecting them both to give up big plays through the air as we cruise to an easy Over win.

Over 41 (-110)

Fade Dawgs

Commanders (+3.5) @ Buccaneers

C’mon, did you really think that Washington wouldn’t make an appearance in the Week 1 picks? And that’s right you’re reading correctly I’m not betting against them we’re betting on them. I’m all in on JD5 and the new regime. Sure, I have my second thoughts about Dan Quinn and the literal ghosts of 1st round QBs past (RIP Haskins) always haunt me but Dan Snyder is gone so anything is possible. In all seriousness I really do think this will be a team that could surprise some people this season and I think it starts Week 1. I’m obviously enamoured with the dual threat Jayden Daniels will be for this team but the real reason I like them in this spot is their revamped defense. New GM Adam Peters and Dan Quinn completely overhauled the roster with only 39% of the 2023 roster returning which is by the lowest percentage in the league. This was long overdue and new additions like Bobby Wagner, Frankie Luvu and Jeremy Chinn should help improve a painfully underperforming defense. The pass rush couldn’t have been worse last season being dead last in most categories but that should change under Quinn who’s known for being creative with drawing up ways to create pressure. Now so far I’ve admittedly been whistling past the Bucs in this write up because they just feel like they’re the same team last year. Not that it’s a terrible thing but I can’t ignore the feeling that they over performed and frankly got a little lucky last season. That said Mike Evans will get his (see the TD Triducken) but I think Washington can force Baker to make enough mistakes to make this a close game, maybe even pull off the upset. Mayfield after all is 14-26-1 all time against the spread as a favorite so let’s ride with JD5 in his Burgundy and Gold debut.

Commanders +3.5 (-108)

Touchdown Triducken

Anytime TD Parlay: Mike Evans, Ceedee Lamb, Josh Allen

Those new to Bick’s Picks might not be familiar with the term Triducken, but it’s our homage to the late great John Madden. It’s a touchdown inside a touchdown inside another touchdown, what’s not to like? Feel like I kept it simple and went for what I thought was sure things. Ceedee’s scored in 9 straight regular season games to end last season and he remains THE weapon in the Cowboys offense. Washington always seems to struggle to limit an opposing team’s biggest weapon so until I see them do otherwise I think Evans is a safe bet. My doppelgänger Josh Allen had 15 rushing TDs last season and this season the Bills are definitely looking for him to put the team on his back with Diggs out the door. Sure I‘m playing it safe but after the Commanders pick it’s probably not the worst idea.

Anytime TD Triducken: Mike Evans, Ceedee Lamb, Josh Allen (+869)

Bick’s Stone Cold Lock of the Century of the Week

Patriots @ Bengals (-13.5)

To end last season I looked to Bill and the New England Patriots to get one more win against the Jets but they failed me. Belichick’s tenure ended with a 17-3 wet fart and I’m sorry Pats fans unfortunately I’m expecting Jerod Mayo’s to start the same way. I think too much of a bad 4-13 squad was brought back expecting different results. It also doesn’t inspire confidence that the big offseason acquisitions for the offense are Jacoby Brissett and OC Alex Van Pelt. Sure their defense should be a strength but I’m guessing they’ll be on the field a lot Sunday. Now picking the Bengals does come with its share of concerns because the Brown family is a bunch of cheap bastards but it sounds like at least Chase will play. Even if he didn’t I’m not sure it’d change my opinion about this game, sorry Pats fan I think ya’ll Maye suck.

 Bengals -13.5 (+170)