We made it people, the last weekend of football before the big game. Feels like only yesterday I was picking games for Thanksgiving and now it’s almost February. But let’s ignore the unstoppable march of time for a moment to enjoy the fact we had ourselves a 3-1 Divisional Round here at Bick’s Picks. First the Ravens delivered us the Over, then a couple 4th quarter TDs ensured the Lions covered, and to end the weekend another generation of Bills fans got to know the pain of Wide Right. The Packers did spoil an otherwise perfect weekend, but with how much cheese I’ve been eating while watching these games I should’ve known better. Regardless you guys know we don’t sweat the losses at Bick’s Picks we chase em, so let’s get into it.

Chiefs (+4.5) @ Ravens (44.5)

Your eyes do not deceive you. I am in fact making two picks for this game. Fact of the matter is I saw the opportunity to bet on a dawg or an Over, so I figured why not both? Now it may bother Pats fans for me to say but I get the same feeling of inevitability with Mahomes as I did with Brady. Sure the Chiefs were definitely a mess at times during the regular season but here we are and they’re playing in their 6th straight AFC Championship. Rookie Rashee Rice has emerged as a weapon outside, Pacheco has been running downhill and Taylor Swift’s boyfriend is finally catching more balls than he’s dropping. Although this may seem like familiar territory for Mahomes this is actually the first time since his rookie year that he’s been a dawg in back to back weeks. Some might say that’s a bad thing but they should know he won both those games his rookie year and we all know what happened last week. In fact over his entire career he’s 8-3 straight up and 9-1-1 against the spread when he’s a dawg. There’s a lot to like about those numbers but let’s not forget the reason Mahomes is a dawg is because the Ravens are the best team in football. The Ravens have the best record, the best rushing attack, the best defense and the probable MVP. There’s always a chance we could have a game similar to Super Bowl LV where Baltimore dominates the Chiefs like the Bucs did but personally I think we’re in for one to remember. As for the Over 44.5 for these teams is just too low I don’t care about the weather. Both of these teams are going to at least put up 20 and I don’t expect either to let up if they get the chance to spread it on. In the end it really wouldn’t surprise me if either team won this game but in the end I expect it to be close and with enough scoring to get us two wins to start the day.

Chiefs +4.5

Over 44.5

Lions (+7) @ 49ers

Right when the line opened I liked this number for the Lions. Admittedly I liked it even more when it briefly snuck up to +7.5 but either way I think these kittens cover. Hell I’ll say it, I like the Lions to win this game outright. Two huge home wins have Detroit faithful one game away from experiencing their first Super Bowl in their 93 year history. It might sound cliche to say but they feel like a team of destiny and I’m buying in. It’s easy to forget that Jared Goff is the second most experienced quarterback left in the playoffs and is a much better qb than the game manager he was during his Super Bowl run with the Rams. I’m also sure offensive genius and future Washington head coach Ben Johnson will have a game plan ready to attack a Niners defense that’s been susceptible to the run and some big plays. On the other side Brock Purdy has managed to stay mistake free in his playoff career but I think that luck is about to run out. Even though the Lions defense is considered the worst left in the playoffs, Aiden Hutchinson and company can get after the quarterback and I think they finally make Purdy turn it over. Admittedly it feels like I’m writing off San Fran and that’s probably because I am. My arbitrary bias is showing and I can’t shake the idea that Lil Shanny’s teams always choke. So I’ll be doing the Jeff special and throwing some on the spread and some on the moneyline.

Lions +7

Lions ML (+275)