Not that it should surprise anyone but we had another 3-0 week here at Bick’s Picks. The alopecia king and Jameis hit the over, Sam Howell covered in spite of Ron Rivera and the Patriots should’ve just left Mac Jones in Germany. However this week we can’t rely on the winning formula of the Frankfurt Games and Washington being a dawg but it is a BIG dawg weekend. 6 of the 13 spreads this weekend are more than TD so I’m confident we can keep the gravy train rolling. I’ll admit I did briefly question some of these picks but at the end of the day Bick’s Picks is about trusting with your plums so let’s get into it.

Life’s Too Short to Bet the Under

Steelers @ Browns (32.5)

Stop me if you’ve heard this one before but another week, another slate of low totals. But this week is special because we got one of our lowest totals in a while. Draftkings has the line at 33 but I’m seeing 32.5 on a lot of other apps which would tie it for the lowest total in a decade. Now I’ll admit there’s reason to believe that the Under will hit because both these teams have dominant defenses and less than ideal qb situations. Not to mention that last game that had a 32.5 total was a matchup last season between the Saints and Browns that ended 17-10. But when these teams met earlier in the season Pitt came out on top 26-22. So I’m betting we get enough scoring in this somehow very meaningful divisional matchup between two 6-3 teams. 

Over 32.5

Fade Dawgs

Jets (+8) @ Bills

I won’t lie I was very tempted to pick the Under for this game as my lock but I like this line as much. Let’s address the elephant in the room. Yes I know Zach Wilson exists and although I’m sure I’ll regret saying this I’m frankly not worried. Wilson is 2-1 against the Bills and the Jets defense should give their offense plenty of short fields because Josh Allen has regressed into a turnover machine. He leads the lead in picks and now faces a secondary that’s only allowed 224 yards passing the last 3 weeks combined. The spiraling Bills are 2-4 of their last 6 games all of which have been settled by less than TD. Sure they sacrificed their OC Ken Dorsey to the football gods but that won’t fix what ails them. Gimme the J-E-T-S.

Jets (+8)

Bick’s Stone Cold Lock of the Century of the Week

Buccaneers @ 49ers (-13.5)

Not gonna lie the lock this week was tricky because there’s just so many games I like. I like the Jet/Bills Under, Chargers/Packers Over, Jags -6.5 and hell I even like the Cowboys -10.5 but end of the day I always came back to this game. I saw the line start -12 so I’m guess I’m not alone in liking the Niners but how can you not. Sure they had that skid while Deebo was out and Purdy was playing concussed but now back at full strength they look dangerous. Their new look defense absolutely dismantled Jags 34-3 bringing an abrupt end to their 5 game win streak. The Niners D forced 4 turnovers and had 5 sacks on Trevor Lawrence including one by the newly acquired Chase Young so expect Baker Mayfield to be running for his life all game. I’ll admit I don’t trust Purdy but now with all his weapons healthy the Kyle Shanahan system should do all the heavy lifting. Also the CMC TD streak sadly came to an end last week but I’m guessing they’re gonna wanna start another one so add an anytime CMC TD to the bet if you wanna get spicy

49ers (-13.5)