Kansas City Chiefs (14-3) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (14-3)

Spread: Eagles (-1.5) Total: (51)

One more NFL gambling blog for the season and it’s the most important pick of the year. Super Bowl 57 is finally here and what a game it should be. There are a lot of factors at play that make this game difficult to handicap. Let’s get into my pick for the spread and I’ll even throw out some props that I like at the end.

The Eagles have been the public betting favorite since the first lines went up after the AFC Championship game. They actually opened as 2 point underdogs, and so much money came in on them it flipped the line by the morning which has now settled at 1.5. This just feels eerily similar to the Bengals game for the Chiefs though. A hotshot team with a young QB, coming off a dominant win over a very good opponent gets all the love from the public. I don’t think I can make the same mistake again. Sure, the Chiefs have been horrendous ATS this year (7-11-1), but that’s mostly been due to them being favored by a large margin and not covering in a win. I understand the Chiefs are banged up too, but I still don’t see why we should be giving Patrick Mahomes any points in any game. As an underdog he is 7-1-1 ATS and 6-3 SU in 9 starts. Every time I think of a reason why the Eagles could win the game in my head my counterpoint is always “Patrick Mahomes.”

As for the rest of the game it’s tough to ignore the Eagles talent across the board. There’s no denying the names they have, but are we just going to forget the fact that the Chiefs defense only gave up 20 points to the Bengals two weeks ago? I mean just matching up offenses the Bengals are better at QB, RB, and WR. TE is a slight lean towards Philly and the offensive line is a runaway by the Eagles. I think people are underestimating what the Kansas City defense can do. When you look at the Chiefs too, especially on offense, they have guys that have been there before in big games and that experience could make a difference late in the game. It goes without saying, but the Chiefs also have the advantage at head coach as well. I don’t want to look back on this game and think to myself “why did I bet against Mahomes getting points?” Like I said earlier I’m not making that mistake again. I see Mahomes leading a late scoring drive to lift Kansas City to victory.

The Play: Chiefs +1.5

Final Prediction

Chiefs 23 Eagles 20

Props to Think About

For what it’s worth I like the Under in this game as well. I probably won’t bet it, but this total is sitting all the way up at 51 and I expect this game to be played tight especially early on. The Eagles also run a lot which lends to the under.

• Isiah Pacheco Any Time Touchdown (+120)
• Isiah Pacheco At Least 12 Carries (-106)
• Boston Scott Any Time Touchdown (+450)
• Over 3.5 Field Goals (+130)
• Kansas City Longest Punt Over 56.5 (+100)
• Patrick Mahomes Any Time Touchdown (+400)