Only three games remain in the NFL season and it looks like we’re primed for two really good ones this weekend. After a rough wild card showing we bounced back last week with a 3-1 record all ATS. Let’s see what we can do this weekend.

NFC Championship

49ers vs. Eagles (-2.5) (46.5)

If you know me and you’ve been reading my picks this year, then I think you know where I’m going with this one. Everyone seems to be really high on the Eagles right now and for good reason. They just dominated the Giants and when healthy they’ve easily been the best team in the NFL. They haven’t run up on a defense like the one they’re going to face this weekend though. The Eagles offensive line is probably their biggest strength and it’ll be put to the test on Sunday. The 49ers are going to have to generate pressure on Jalen Hurts. Just ask the Giants. If you give him time to sit back and throw he’s going to do some damage and the 49ers secondary has been shaky as of late. I do think if there’s a unit that can disrupt the Eagles seemingly impenetrable pass protection it’s the 49ers defensive line. For Brock Purdy and the offense it’s going to be another game of protecting the football and not making mistakes. The Eagles boast the leagues best passing defense so look for a heavy dose of Christian McCaffrey and Elijah Mitchell. They also have guys where if you just get them the ball they can make a play (Deebo, Aiyuk, Kittle), so I’d expect a lot of short throws and check downs to let those guys do their thing. I truly think San Francisco can win this game. You’ve heard it all week that a rookie QB has never made it to the Super Bowl as a starter, but that was before we knew about Brocktober. That has to change at some point right? Why not now? We ride into battle with the Niners on Sunday.

The Play: 49ers +2.5

AFC Championship

Bengals vs. Chiefs (-1) (47.5)

This line has swung like crazy over the last week. It opened with the Chiefs favored by 1.5. The next day it moved to favor the Bengals, who we’re all the way up at -2.5, before the line moved back to Kansas City -1 on Thursday. This has to be attributed to the uncertainty around Patrick Mahomes health. I have no doubts he plays in this game, but can he be as effective as he usually is with his legs? I’m not sure about that. While he can still stand in the pocket and carve up a defense, what makes him the most special is how he’s able to move in the pocket and extend plays. If he’s unable to do that the Chiefs will have trouble keeping pace with the Bengals offense. The Chiefs defense has also struggled at times this year and after seeing what the Bengals did to the Bills last week I expect more of the same. For the Bengals to win their defense is going to have to come up with stops in big spots. Sam Hubbard and Trey Hendrickson will need to put the pressure on a hobbled Mahomes in order for that to happen. They’ll also need to have a better game plan than the Jaguars did for Travis Kelce. Make one of the other receivers beat you. There’s no Tyreek Hill anymore and Mahomes has had to rely on Kelce more than ever. It’s easier said than done, but chipping him off the line or just putting a body on him can make a difference. The Jags never seemed to be in the same area code as him on half his catches and he burned them because of it. I think the Bengals have what it takes to get it done again in KC this year. They’ve been playing incredible football for the last couple months and despite still being really good this doesn’t feel like the powerhouse Chiefs teams of the last couple years. They still do have Patrick Mahomes, but the Bengals have Joe Burrow and he’s on Mahomes level now. Bengals punch their second straight ticket to the Super Bowl on Sunday.

The Play: Bengals +1