What a great round this is shaping up to be. All these games should be hotly contested. Let’s hope we do a bit better on the gambling side of things this time around. Last weekend we went 2-4 overall (2-3 ATS, 0-1 Totals) mostly thanks to the Chargers blowing a 27 point lead, and the Bengals/Ravens hitting the over by 1/2 a point. No time for excuses though time to buckle down and carve out a 4-0 weekend.

Jaguars vs. Chiefs (-8.5) (53)

We start the divisional round with the biggest spread of the weekend. Last time we saw the Chiefs they ran the Raiders out of their own building in Week 18. The Jaguars on the other hand made a furious comeback to erase a 27 point deficit despite 5 first half turnovers. When I look at this game I see a team in Kansas City that undoubtedly should win, but is 8.5 too much? The Chiefs finished the season 6-10-1 ATS this season. I know I used the same logic in their Week 18 game in Las Vegas that they weren’t covering due to inflated lines, and they stuffed me in a locker and won 31-13. The difference here is the Jaguars are a better team than the Raiders and this is essentially the same line (although this game is in KC). The Chiefs defense has been a problem for them this season, and I think that allows Jacksonville to hang around. The Jags need to finish drives in order to keep pace with the Chiefs who give up TDs on 67% of opponents redzone trips. We saw what not finishing opportunities can do last week with the Chargers leaving points on the board that allowed the Jaguars to get back into the game. I’m trusting Doug Pederson to be crafty with his offense on Saturday, and I think we get the Trevor Lawrence from the second half last week. If that’s the case I don’t see why the Jaguars can’t keep this to a touchdown.

The Play: Jaguars +8.5

Giants vs. Eagles (-7.5) (48)

This game basically comes down to how you feel about the Eagles health. I’m not sold on the fact that Jalen Hurts is 100% despite the fact that he’s off the injury report. I’m guessing Lane Johnson is going to play, but how is he going to look? Can Kayvon Thibodeaux take advantage? They also could be without cornerback Avonte Maddox as well. Then you have to wonder do I trust the Giants to take advantage? After last weeks performance I think I do. The Eagles defense has been very good this year so I don’t expect a ton of points from the Giants, but I think they’re good enough to stay competitive. I also have faith that Brian Daboll will have a different look for this game than he did last time these teams faced off with both teams starters playing (Eagles won 48-22). I do think Philly finds a way to win a close game. Divisional games in the playoffs tend to be played a little tighter as well. Look no further than last week with Bills/Dolphins and Bengals/Ravens. Both Underdogs covered and even had chances to win the game. With the line where it’s at just over a touchdown I like the Giants to cover. I think the leeway they’re giving you with that 1/2 point is too valuable to pass up.

The Play: Giants +7.5

Bengals vs. Bills (-5) (48.5)

Both these teams failed to cover last week despite facing backup QBs. Now this week they’ll each have to deal with each others equally scary QBs. Both guys have shown they can deliver in big moments and that’s what makes this game so highly anticipated. I love what both teams bring offensively and I don’t think either offense will have a problem scoring. The thing that is going to decide this game is which defense can get a stop when it matters? The Bills defense with Von Miller is a different animal, but without him they’ve taken a step back. While Greg Rousseau has been good in his second year at DE it still doesn’t make up for Millers absence. With all the Bengals injuries on the offensive line this is an area the Bills need to take advantage of, but without Miller I think Joe Burrow will have a clean enough pocket to do some damage on Sunday. The Bills offense feels like they have fallen into this mode lately where it seems like every play they’re throwing the ball deep. With them being a bit more one dimensional in that regard the Bengals are going to have to limit big plays down the field to guys like Diggs and Davis. If they can do that and force Buffalo to adjust their game plan they might be able to come up with enough key stops to win the game. I think with the spread up at 5 it gives enough wiggle room for the Bengals to slip up and lose, but still cover. This should be the best game of the weekend. I think it’s decided by a field goal. Either way the Bengals cover.

The Play: Bengals +5

Cowboys vs. 49ers (-3.5) (46)

The Cowboys looked impressive on Monday Night, and if they can jump on the Niners early like they did to the Bucs it could be a problem for San Francisco. You have to remember though. Tampa Bay is awful. I know I took them last week, but I was blinded by Tom Brady. Any other name there at QB and I would’ve went with Dallas. The 49ers started slow, but turned it on in the second half. I just think they’re defense is too good to look past right now. They will frustrate Dak, and I know he didn’t throw a pick last week, but I’m predicting multiple takeaways for the 49ers defense on Sunday. For San Francisco offensively all Brock Purdy has to do is take care of the football and let his playmakers do the rest. If he’s smart with the ball I can’t see the Cowboys being able to get any momentum going. With the line at 3.5 you’re going to have to sweat this one for awhile because Dallas will hang around early. I hate taking favorites at 3.5 because so many close games are won by a field goal, but I love the Niners in this one. Even if the game is close down the stretch Brett Mahar has completely forgot how to kick extra points apparently so who knows what could happen. One miss could change everything, but I don’t even think we get to that point. San Francisco controls the ball early and the Cowboys cripple themselves with second half turnovers. It’s fucking Brocktober baby, and it’s just getting started.

The Play: 49ers -3.5