It’s finally playoff time in the NFL. Before we get into the picks for each game I wanted to give a rundown on how I fared in the regular season with my picks:

Overall: 83-67-5 (55.16%) (2 canceled bets from Bills/Bengals)

• Thursday: ATS- 11-8 Total- 7-8-1
• Monday: ATS- 12-5 Total- 7-6-2
• Monday/Thursday: ATS- 23-13
• Favorite: 11-5-1
• Charlie Murphy’s Habitual Line Stepper of the Week (Underdog): 11-9
• Over: 8-9
• Under: 10-7
• Definitely Not My Lock of the Week: 6-10-1 (*all “lock” bets were ATS except 1)
• ATS Overall: 51-36-2
• Totals Overall: 32-31-3

Not terrible for having to shoehorn certain picks that maybe weren’t my favorite. It also seems that I tended to forget that I was supposed to be doing a lock of the week and picked the other four first and left that pick in no mans land. Anyways, next year I’ll probably adjust the format, but that’s not on my mind right now. Let’s get into the Wild Card slate where I’ll be giving one pick for each game.

Seahawks vs. 49ers (-9.5) (42.5)

I like the 49ers way too much for my own good right now. Their defense is championship caliber and Kyle Shanahan has done a good job at hiding Brock Purdy and playing to the strengths of his weapons on offense. The Seahawks faltered down the stretch, but still found a way into the playoffs thanks to the Lions win in Green Bay last Sunday. Nothing about the way they have been playing lately though makes me think they can win this game. Their offense hasn’t looked at all like what it did in the first half of the season and playing against this 49ers defense won’t help that cause. On the other side of the ball the 49ers have shown they can score enough against the Seahawks defense to cover this spread. They only won by 8 in their last matchup, but that game was played in Seattle. Not to mention they have scored over 30 points in 5 of their last 6 games. With home field advantage and momentum on their side San Francisco is the team to back in the playoff opener.

The Play: 49ers -9.5

Chargers (-2.5) vs. Jaguars (47.5)

This should be a close and competitive game. Potentially the best of the weekend. Jacksonville has surged into the playoffs on the heels of 5 straight wins. I just don’t know how sustainable that is for a team that still lacks the talent of a true contender. The Jags have been a fun team this year and I wish I felt stronger about them in this game, but unfortunately I don’t. The problem with that is the team on the other side of the ball doesn’t instill much confidence either. The Chargers have a rich history of fucking things up so I’m nervous to take them. What I do like though is that they finally seem to be reaching their potential, or at least what the media thought their potential should be. They also boast a very talented offense, one unlike the Jaguars have seen in the last few weeks. Jacksonville’s last three wins have come against Josh Dobbs, Davis Mills, and Zach Wilson. Not really a who’s who of talent there. That’s not to say they haven’t beaten anyone good, but I think the Chargers are bringing more firepower than they’ve seen recently. The line also plays a big factor here. I do think this will be a close game so to get this under 3 points is huge. This will come right down to the wire and the Chargers will come away with a one score victory.

The Play: Chargers -2.5

Dolphins vs. Bills (-13.5) (43.5)

This is going to be a whoopin’. The Dolphins will start Skylar Thompson for the second straight week with Tua and Teddy Bridgewater still on the shelf. The Bills offense appears to still be firing on all cylinders and I don’t think Miami will have much of an answer for it. Last time these teams faced off it was a 3 point game, but that game was started by Tua, and the Dophins gave up 32 points. I like the Bills to find themselves somewhere in the low 30’s on Sunday and if you think the Fins won’t score more than 17 (which I don’t think they will) then you have to go Bills here.

The Play: Bills -13.5

Giants vs. Vikings (-3) (48)

Just a few weeks ago this was a very competitive game that came down to a last second field goal by the Vikings to win it. I feel like we’re in for the same type of game, so I like the Giants to keep this close again. Kirk Cousins is 48-37-2 ATS at 1 pm or earlier and 21-32 ATS at 4 pm or later. I’ll take my chances with those odds. The Vikings are also 11-0 in one score games this season. Usually when you see teams squeaking out wins like that there will be a correction at some point. Whether that happens in the playoffs or the following season it will happen. The Vikings have gotten by winning some really tight and even straight up lucky games (think the Bills game) while all four of their losses have been by double digits. I’m not saying the Giants are going to go into Minneapolis and blow out the Vikings. This will be a close game and one the Giants can win. If Daniel Jones can take care of the football the Giants get the run game going with Saquon Barkley I like their chances Sunday afternoon.

The Play: Giants +3

Ravens vs. Bengals (-9) (40.5)

I’m waffling between two picks for this one. I don’t see any way the Bengals lose, but there is the possibility the Ravens keep this close because of their defense. Anthony Brown looks to be the starter for the Ravens if Tyler Huntley can’t go. Taking that into account the under looks juicy here too. I just don’t like how low the number is. These teams put up a combined 43 points just last week. Since Lamar has gone out though, 5 of the Ravens last 6 games have gone under 40 points. In fact none have gone over 30 besides the Bengals game. I would lean Bengals on the spread, but the Ravens defense makes me nervous with a 9 point line. The Ravens have only lost by more than 10 twice this year so they would’ve covered this spread in 15 of 17 games. I think with the uncertainties around the Quarterback position for the Ravens and the line where it’s at the under is a bit safer. If Huntley is able to go I still like the under and the line might move up a bit if you wanted to wait on this bet. You’re going to have to sweat it out, but it’s the play.

The Play: Under 40.5

Cowboys (-2.5) vs. Buccaneers (45.5)

The Buccaneers have not been good this year and they’ve been even worse ATS (4-12-1), but I love them in this spot for some reason. The Cowboys looked awful last week and while you can take that with a grain of salt you have to acknowledge Dak Prescott’s interception problem this year. He tied with Davis Mills for the NFL lead with 15 interceptions. If that’s not bad enough Mills played 15 games this year and Dak only played in 12. You can’t win in the playoffs if you turn the ball over and Dak hasn’t shown he can keep a clean sheet this year. Let’s also not forget that Tom Brady is lining up under center for the other team. He hasn’t looked like himself, but it’s still Tom Brady we’re talking about. I don’t think he has another magical Super Bowl run in him, but I have 20 years experience rooting for Brady when he was on the Pats and let me tell you this is the exact type of bullshit game he wins. As long as Todd Bowles doesn’t fuck anything up (BIG if) if you’re giving Brady points at home in the playoffs I’m taking it.

The Play: Buccaneers +2.5