Two Sundays to go. Last week we we’re 4-1. Still chasing that 5-0 week though. Let’s get into it.

Favorite

Packers (-3) vs. Vikings

I know Green Bay is -3.5 on a lot of books, but I’m getting them at -3 on mine so that’s the line I’m going with. This is similar to the Lions-Vikings game a couple weeks ago. Why is a 7-8 team favored over a 12-3 team? The Vikings have found themselves as underdogs with a better record twice so far this year against Detroit and Dallas and they are 0-2 SU/ATS in those games. Keeping with that trend I’m going Packers here.

Charlie Murphy’s Habitual Line Stepper of the Week (Underdog)

Broncos (+12.5) vs. Chiefs

This could be dumb, but this line seems inflated to me. While the Broncos did get blown out on Christmas Day they did play the Chiefs to a 6 point game a couple weeks ago. In fact aside from the Christmas game the only other game where the Broncos wouldn’t have covered this spread was a 13 point loss to the Panthers. The Chiefs also aren’t covering spreads like they used to. They’re 5-9-1 ATS this season despite their 12-3 record mostly due to inflated lines like this. I think the Broncos can keep this just close enough to cover here.

Over

Rams vs. Chargers (42.5)

This seems oddly low for a total. The Rams offense seems to have found a bit of footing with Baker Mayfield at QB and, the Chargers offense having both Mike Williams and Keenan Allen back will help the scoring in this one. I don’t think it’s unreasonable to see both of these teams in the low-mid 20s. 24-21 gets this done with a couple points to spare. Sounds easy enough right?

Under

Browns vs. Commanders (40.5)

A struggling Deshaun Watson against a good defense? My old friend Carson Wentz getting the nod? This screams under to me. I think the Commanders win a low scoring, slow, run dominant game to keep their playoff hopes alive.

The Definitely Not My Lock of the Week Bonus Pick

Bears (+6) vs. Lions

Probably another dumb pick here, but I like the Bears to cover this spread. I rode the Lions right into the ground last week as their ATS streak came to an end at the hands of the Panthers. I don’t see how the Lions should be giving 6 points to anyone despite their recent success. The Bears have been able to hang around in a lot of games lately as well. This seems like one of those Bears games this year where they give up a late lead and lose by a score. Lions win Bears cover.