Here we go again. Another Sunday, another five picks coming at you. Last week we finished 3-2 on Sunday. Not bad, but it’s about time we hit a 5-0. Let’s go.

Favorite

Lions (Pk) vs. Jaguars

Alright I know this is kind of cheating. My book has this at a pick’em, but the Lions are favored on other publications so they’re going to count as a favorite here. I think this is fairly simple. The Lions played great on Thanksgiving against a really good team and if Josh Allen didn’t turn into Superman on that last drive and get the Bills in field goal range that game was headed for OT. The Jags on the other hand had a lot of things break their way down the stretch in their win against the Ravens. A win’s a win, but that formula isn’t sustainable. Go with the Lions here at home.

Charlie Murphy’s Habitual Line Stepper of the Week (Underdog)

Steelers (+1) vs. Falcons

Back to the well again with the underdog Steelers. Like I said in Monday’s blog this team is completely different when TJ Watt is on the field. He changes everything for Pittsburgh. I like this spot for them as a road underdog. Atlanta was a cash cow through the first 6 weeks going 6-0 ATS. Since then though not so much. They’ve gone 1-5 in their last 6 ATS. Atlanta has played some tight games recently, but have found a way to Falcons themselves (yes that’s a verb) in most of those games. I like Pittsburgh to win in a tight one. You can take the point for tie-insurance if you want or grab the money line for a little more juice.

Over

Chargers vs. Raiders (50)

This is one of those games that seems like a no brainer which I don’t love, but this feels like it should hit pretty easily. The Raiders are playing every game into overtime now for some reason and the Chargers are typically a high scoring team. If Mike Williams makes his way back onto the field that will be huge for the over as well. I think the way the Raiders are playing offensively (and the fact that they don’t play defense) bodes well for the over.

Under

Broncos vs. Ravens (39.5)

You guessed it we’re doing Broncos unders again. The Ravens won’t put up a ton of points against a good Denver defense and let’s face it the Broncos offense probably won’t be doing much of anything. I will continue to blindly take these unders until they start losing.

The Definitely Not My Lock of the Week Bonus Pick

Titans (+4.5) vs. Eagles

Derrick Henry should have a field day in this game. I know Jordan Davis might play and that changes how the Eagles do things defensively especially when it comes to stopping the run, but this feels like a trap for Philly. Mike Vrabel is 21-7 ATS and 19-9 SU as more than a field goal underdog. You can’t argue with those numbers. I know this is kind of a public pussy pick now, but it was at one time the sharpest move this weekend. I’m still rolling with it.