Buffalo Bills (8-3) vs. New England Patriots (6-5)

The Spread: Bills (-4)

I mean all seven people reading this blog know who I’m going to pick, but the Patriots getting points at home has always been a recipe for success. The Bills have come back down to earth a bit recently after a hot start. They are still a very good team though and that offense can be deadly if it gets rolling early. I expect the Patriots to do what most underdogs do against a good team like the Bills and that’s play to their strengths. They’ll have to run the ball and keep the Bills offense on the sidelines. If they are able to do that I think they hang around and even potentially come out with the win. The Patriots are the more desperate team here as well and that needs to be taken into account. They can’t risk losing this game to fall to .500 with five games to go and a tough schedule still on the horizon. Expect New England to come out and play hard right from the jump to take advantage of Buffalo’s slow starts.

The Play: Patriots +4

Total (43.5)

If you like the Pats in this game you probably like the under as well. New England does not want to turn this into a shootout against this Bills offense. That’s a battle you’re not going to win most of the time. Like I said above and countless other times I’ve taken an underdog in primetime. Expect them to run the ball and eat the clock. That usually leads to a lower scoring game.

The Play: Under 43.5

Final Prediction

Patriots 20 Bills 17