Happy Thanksgiving to the seven people that read these picks. This Thursday as you know we have three games instead of just one. What we’re going to do here is give one pick for each game. Whether that be against the spread or on the total I’ll talk about each game quickly and then give a pick.

Bills (-9.5) vs. Lions (+9.5) (54)

The total here is a bit too high for my liking. As much as I’d like to sit back and get the day started with a nice over I can’t get on board with this one. That leaves us with a 9.5 point spread to deal with. The Lions are playing inspired football as of late, but as it goes with the Lions I’m wondering when that’s going to end. The Bills bounced back nicely last week with a win over the Browns, but I still worry about Josh Allen’s elbow, especially when we’re talking about a spread this big. I have no doubts the Lions will be able to score points in this game the question is can they keep up with Buffalo? I think the answer to that is yes, and solely because I’m not convinced Josh Allen is 100% healthy just yet. Bills win by single digits and the Lions cover.

The Play: Lions +9.5

Giants (+10) vs. Cowboys (-10) (45.5)

Another big spread here. The Cowboys looked like world beaters Sunday when they went up to Minnesota and dismantled an 8-1 Vikings team. I think that, along with the fact that the Giants seem to be fading a bit has inflated this line. Now I don’t necessarily buy the idea that the Giants are a really good team and I do think they’ve overperformed to this point. I think the reason for that is that they found themselves a very good coach in Brian Daboll. The Giants know that the near guaranteed playoff berth it seemed they had a couple weeks ago is at major risk of slipping away and especially so if they go out and lay a dud on Thursday. I think Daboll has them ready to rip and if he does there’s no reason they can’t keep this under 10. The Cowboys are also 1-10 ATS on Thanksgiving since 2011. I’d say it’s more likely than not they win this game too, but by more than 10? I don’t think so. I also like the over here, but I’ll take the points with New York.

The Play: Giants +10

Patriots (+2.5) vs. Vikings (-2.5) (42.5)

I know what you’re thinking here. Is he going to do it? Is he going to take a third straight underdog? You’re damn right I’m going to. I mean, come on if you’re reading this you know me, and if you know me you know I’m not picking against the Pats. The line has already come down from 3 to 2.5 as well. That means Vegas thinks the Pats are a half point better on a neutral field. Ooh and one more thing. It’s Kirk Cousins in Prime Time. I don’t care who the Vikings were playing I’d be picking against them in this game. If the Patriots offense can remember how to move the ball and help their defense out a little I don’t see any reason why they couldn’t win this game.

The Play: Patriots +2.5