Welcome to my NFL Week 11 betting guide. Each week we are going to pick one favorite, one underdog (AKA Charlie Murphy’s Habitual Line Stepper of the Week), one over, one under, and we’ll cap it off with a bonus pick that I can’t call my lock of the week anymore because it keeps losing. Let’s get started.

Favorite

Eagles (-6.5) vs. Colts

The look ahead line for this game was 10.5 before Monday Night. It’s a cool narrative to think that Jeff Saturday completely fixed the Colts, but I’m supposed to be sold on this team after beating who? The Raiders? On the other hand I’m supposed to sell on the Eagles after one loss? I’m not doing that either. The Commanders played a great game Monday Night, but a lot went wrong for the Eagles and they still were in the game right down to the end. This feels like a let down spot for the Colts coming off an emotional win last week. The Eagles roll here.

Charlie Murphy’s Habitual Line Stepper of the Week (Underdog)

Steelers (+4) vs. Bengals

Back to the well with the Steelers I go. Last time I took them they got run out of the building by the Eagles so I’m ready to get hurt again. The thing about that game was they didn’t have TJ Watt. He is such a game changer for this team overall. Don’t fact check me, but I think the Steelers have won like a game or two when Watt has missed time since he’s gotten to Pittsburgh. They also beat the Bengals in a wild game to start the season. Four points is a lot for a divisional game and a home underdog at that. I’ll always take Mike Tomlin in that situation, go Steelers here.

Over

Browns vs. Bills (49.5)

I wish I got in on this over when the game was supposed to be played in six feet of snow, but if you snooze you lose. Now with the game being played in Detroit points shouldn’t be hard to come by. The Bills should be on a mission to put a beatdown on Cleveland here and luckily for them the Browns defense couldn’t stop a nosebleed. Look for Buffalo to get back on track offensively. Cleveland should be able to do enough to get us to 50 in this one. If they can get anywhere around 20 points the Bills should take care of the rest.

Under

Raiders vs. Broncos (41)

I don’t really love any unders this week so why not take the best team to the under this year? 8 of 9 Broncos games have gone under the total so far this season. Only problem with this pick is that one game that went over was against the Raiders. Water always finds it’s level though, so if these two put up over 50 last time they played I think they can keep it in the 30’s this time.

The Definitely Not My Lock of the Week Bonus Pick

Cowboys (-1.5) vs. Vikings

You might ask yourself why would an 8-1 team be getting points at home against a team that just blew a 14 point fourth quarter lead to Green Bay last week? I asked myself the same question, but I think this is just another case of Vegas baiting you into taking Minnesota. The Vikings are coming off a huge comeback win over the Bills and the Cowboys off the aforementioned game against the Packers. Buy low, sell high as they say. The game is also at 4:25. Not necessarily prime time, but there’s going to be a lot of eyes on this one. We all know what happens to Kirk Cousins in those scenarios. This game feels like a classic case of sniffing out the rat line and that’s what the Vikings getting points is. Cowboys take this one on the road.