Atlanta Falcons (4-5) vs. Carolina Panthers (2-7)

The Spread: Falcons (-2.5)

At first glance you would think the Falcons are easy money here, but it’s never that simple in divisional games. These teams just had an absolute shootout two weeks ago that the Falcons were lucky to eek out. This line was at 3 and has now come down to 2.5. I’m assuming that means money is coming in on Carolina, but it makes me like Atlanta even more because they can cover with a field goal. Neither of these teams are good, but there is one that is still very much alive in the divisional race and that’s Atlanta. They have to take care of business against inferior opponents and that’s what the Panthers are. PJ Walker will make the start for the Panthers, but regardless of who lines up under center for Carolina you still have to ride with the Falcons. The Falcons have lost their last three ATS and this is a great chance to get back on track. If they win this game it’ll be by at least a field goal so I’ll give up the points and take Atlanta.

The Play: Falcons -2.5

Over/Under (42.5)

I’m going off recency bias for this one. The last time these two played the final score was 37-34. You could take two touchdowns off of both teams final scores and still hit this over with a 23-20 final. Atlanta is 5-4 to the over and Carolina is 4-5. That doesn’t sound all that impressive, but when you consider the rate unders are hitting at this year it’s not bad. No team has hit more than 5 overs this year so far. With such a low number I can’t pass it up. This should be easy, but nothing ever is in the NFL.

The Play: Over 42.5

Final Prediction

Falcons 27 Panthers 21