Welcome to my NFL Week 8 betting guide. Each week we are going to pick one favorite, one underdog (AKA Charlie Murphy’s Habitual Line Stepper of the Week), one over, one under, and we’ll cap it off with a bonus pick that I can’t call my lock of the week anymore because it keeps losing. Last week we changed it up a bit (with not so great results), so we move back to the old format for Week 8.

Favorite

49ers (-1.5) vs. Rams

If you’re going to give me less than a field goal here for the Niners, I’m going to take it. I don’t even care that they are on the road. Kyle Shanahan owns Sean McVay and he has for years (at least in the regular season). They beat them handily a few weeks ago and now add in Christian McCaffrey off a full week of practice. I think it’s time we call the Rams what they really are and that’s a mediocre team at best. Matthew Stafford isn’t healthy and this team reeks of a Super Bowl hangover. San Francisco all day.

Charlie Murphy’s Habitual Line Stepper of the Week (Underdog)

Cardinals (+3.5) vs. Vikings

The Cardinals seemed to get back on track last week so I like them at more than a field goal here. I’m still not a big believer in the Vikings and they have to start showing some cracks at some point. Arizona has also been a good road team under Kyler Murray. They are 19-9-1 against the spread on the road since he was drafted. The public is slightly favoring the Cardinals, but the money is pretty squarely on them which I like. Look for Arizona to win this game outright and if not the 3 point cushion sure helps.

Over

Raiders vs. Saints (49.5)

On paper you’d think that taking an over in a game with Andy Dalton at QB wouldn’t be a smart move. Well he’s made four starts so far this year and the Saints have scored at least 25 points in all of those games. If they can keep that up we’re already halfway there and you know the Raiders can score. Not to mention the Saints defense has given up at least 28 points in their last four games as well. The Raiders offense is just as good if not better than all of those teams too. All signs point to the over here. Throw in the fact that it’s in the dome too and I like it even more.

Under

Broncos vs. Jaguars (39.5)

Last chance to take the London under so you know we have to go with it. Both games across the pond have gone over this year, but those were at Tottenham and traditionally games in Wembley have gone under. Denver also just has a penchant for unders this year. The under is 6-1 in Broncos games this season. So much for your $250 million QB. Anyways, Denver also plays good defense and they’ll keep them in this game. As long as we can avoid a big kick return or pick six the under seems pretty safe here.

The Definitely Not My Lock of the Week Bonus Pick

Steelers (+10.5) vs. Eagles

The battle for PA. This one is gross to look at, but it’s Mike Tomlin as an underdog so you have to take it. I know that strategy hasn’t necessarily been foolproof this year (remember the Buffalo game?), but 10.5 is a lot of points to give anyone. Sure Philly is undefeated this season and almost certainly wins this game, I just don’t know if it’ll be by more than 10. They’ve only won by more than that margin twice so far in six games. Pittsburgh’s been scrappy at times this year and I like them to keep this interesting. Birds win by a TD.