Welcome to my NFL Week 5 betting guide. Each week we are going to pick one favorite, one underdog (AKA Charlie Murphy’s Habitual Line Stepper of the Week), one over, one under, and we’ll cap it off with a bonus pick that I can’t call my lock of the week anymore because it keeps losing. Last Sunday was horrific again so let’s just get into it.

Favorite

49ers (-6.5) vs. Panthers

I went back and forth here between the Niners and Eagles for my favorite, but I landed on San Francisco because the Cardinals scare me a little more than the Panthers do. Obviously taking a road favorite at almost a touchdown is a risk, but I’m banking on the fact that Carolina will have a difficult time moving the ball on this defense. Defensively I don’t think they’re good enough to keep this game as low scoring as they’d need to in order for them to hang around either. Look for the 49ers to jump out to an early lead, let the defense do their thing, and not look back. Niners by double digits here.

Charlie Murphy’s Habitual Line Stepper of the Week (Underdog)

Seahawks (+5.5) vs. Saints

The Seahawks stink, but I really like them here for some reason. The Saints are coming off a tough loss in London and I think not having a bye after playing out there will hurt them. They may have Jameis Winston back for this one, but I don’t think it matters too much. The Saints offense has struggled with Winston at QB this year. The Seahawks have shown that they can put up points when not playing a top 10 defense as well. They should have some confidence coming off their 48 point output last week and I think they can keep that momentum rolling. This feels like a close game and I think giving the Seahawks that many points is a mistake. This line should probably be somewhere around 3 and I see that being the difference in the game. Either way we cover with the Seahawks.

Over

Bengals vs. Ravens (48.5)

Primetime unders have been my thing this year, but the script is going to flip at some point and we’re going to start getting some overs. I think this is the game to do it. Two explosive offenses and we only need 7 touchdowns to get there. The only thing that might hold us back is if the Ravens run the ball too much and kill the clock. If we can get a quick strike score to start the game and turn this into a shootout we’ll get this over quickly. Since the Bengals found their footing they have scored 27 points in each of the last two games. The Ravens have scored at least 20 in every contest as well as played in some high scoring games. This feels like the primetime shootout we’ve been looking for these first few weeks let’s see some points.

Under

Bears vs. Vikings (44)

This is basically just a “the Bears aren’t going to score any points” under right here. I would’ve expected this to be a couple points lower and that’s why I like it. Chicago has scored over 20 points just once this season and the Vikings have topped out at 28. I think it’ll be close to the total, but the under is a bit safer. A couple of turnovers from both sides and the fact that the Bears will run the ball a ton will slow the game down and limit the scoring. Think like a 24-14 final here for the under.

The Definitely Not My Lock of the Week Bonus Pick

Giants (+8) vs. Packers

I’m going to keep the name of this pick for now because we at least pushed it last week and it wasn’t an outright loss. The Packers most likely find a way to win this game, but they aren’t playing like a team that should be giving 8 points right now, especially in a neutral site game overseas. The Giants are an ugly 3-1 this year, but are also 3-1 ATS and that counts for something. I can see New York hanging around like the Patriots did last week and if you’re going to give me more than a touchdown I’m going to take it. Danny Dimes also plays better on the road and this is about as much of a road game as you’re going to find. Packers win, Giants cover.