After an up and down set of picks in Week 4 we finished the week right at .500 (4-4-1). Now we get to kick off Week 5 in what I can only imagine is going to be an incredibly slow paced and boring game. I think the worst part about it is the fact that I even have to pick one of these teams. There’s a lot to unpack here so let’s get into it.

The Spread: Broncos (-3)

The line here is kind of all over the place depending on where you look. It’s pretty much 50/50 with the Broncos favored by either 3 or 3.5. To be perfectly honest I hate both of these teams this year and I’d rather just not give a pick, but that’s not what the people are here for. Both teams have struggled offensively, but played good defense for the most part. Starting with the Broncos they are probably the most unimpressive team I’ve seen that had any sort of expectations coming in to the year. Last week against the Raiders they put up 23 points in a loss and it was the first time they eclipsed 20 this season. That is mind blowing considering the way the media was talking about them before the season and the contract they gave to Russell Wilson. I didn’t buy it then and I’m still not buying it now.

I was a little higher on Indy, but I think I put it perfectly when I said I was “cautiously optimistic.” Matt Ryan has looked like a shell of himself this season and outside of stealing a game at home against the Chiefs they’ve been just straight up bad this year. Somethings got to give though and it’s tough to put my finger on what it is. Both teams could be without their star running backs (Javonte Williams tore his ACL Sunday and Jonathan Taylor is questionable) and key pieces on defense (Colts Shaq Leonard and Broncos Randy Gregory) that won’t play Thursday. This figures to be a close game and in close games I’d rather take the points. If your book has the Colts at +3.5 I’d jump on it, but I still like them at 3 especially if Taylor ends up being ready to go (emphasis on the IF). I wouldn’t go any lower than 3 with Indy, but I think where the line is at now they’re the move.

The Play: Colts +3

Over/Under (42.5)

For me this pick seems like a no brainer for the under so I imagine we’ll get a shootout instead. I’m not a fan of taking unders because you can always lose it right up until the end, but the Primetime unders have been hot this year and these two teams have been non-existent on offense for the most part this season. Then I look at the fact that Javonte Williams is out for Denver and the Colts could be without Jonathan Taylor and I like it even more. Everything is pointing towards the under and that makes me nervous, but I’m going to stick with my gut here and hope this plays out like the Broncos/49ers game from Week 3.

The Play: Under 42.5

Final Prediction

With my earlier predictions of Colts +3 and Under 42.5 give me the Colts 20-17.