After an absolutely terrible Week 3 I am going to do my best to get back on track here in Week 4. Last week my picks went 1-8-1. That’s humbling especially considering I was over 60% through two weeks. Now I have the unenviable task of trying to handicap this game that I have no strong feeling about either way. I’m sure I’ll talk myself into something while I’m writing so let’s just get started.

The Spread: Bengals (-4)

I don’t even know where to start with this game. Miami has looked great through three weeks and the Bengals started off 0-2 before finding their footing against the Jets last week. Conventional wisdom would tell you to take the Dolphins with the points here. So if that’s the case then why is the spread going in the other direction? It opened at 3.5 and is now at 4. The public is pretty squarely on the Dolphins at around 64%, but the line moving in favor of the Bengals tells me the big bets are going in on Cincinnati. It’s tough to pick against Miami right now the way they are playing, but this could be a big letdown spot for them coming off a huge win over Buffalo. On the other side the Bengals really need this game to get back to .500. I think we fade the public and take the more desperate team in Cincinnati.

The Play: Bengals -4

Over/Under 47

This feels like it is going to be a pretty popular over. It is an attainable number and both these offenses can put up points if needed. That also could’ve been said for a bunch of games this year so far that didn’t hit the over. Last week both of these teams played in games that would’ve hit this under and the Dolphins even played the Bills who’s offense is comparable to the Bengals in terms of firepower. I hate betting trends, but I actually think I like this under. Primetime unders are hitting like crazy right now and only one of the six games these two have played this year have gone over the total. I also think both teams might be a little slow out of the gate on a short week, especially Miami coming off a grind of a game last Sunday. I’m sick of picking unders, but it’s the right move Thursday Night.

The Play: Under 47

Final Prediction

With my earlier prediction of Bengals -4 and Under 47 give me the Bengals 24-17.