Welcome to my NFL Week 3 betting guide. Each week we are going to pick one favorite, one underdog (AKA Charlie Murphy’s Habitual Line Stepper of the Week), one over, one under, and we’ll cap it off with my lock of the week. I finished 3-2 again last week let’s see if we can keep the momentum going for another positive week.

Favorite

Raiders (-1.5) vs. Titans

Here we have two teams looking to avoid an 0-3 start. The difference is one has looked significantly better than the other. The Titans we’re abysmal on Monday Night in Buffalo while the Raiders blew a multiple score lead in the second half against the Cardinals. Had the Raiders closed out the victory on Sunday I think this line would’ve moved slightly more in their favor. The Titans though have not done themselves any favors losing to the Giants Week 1 and getting their doors blown off by the Bills in Week 2. Could the latter have been a product of facing a very good team? Yes, of course, but to lose by 34 is a different story. They have not moved the ball well offensively too and that includes Derrick Henry. The Ryan Tannehill era might be coming to an end and I think we keep fading the Titans, especially with the line at less than a field goal, until the bookmakers catch up to them. You have to go Raiders here it’s time they get on track this season.

Charlie Murphy’s Habitual Line Stepper of the Week (Underdog)

Lions (+6) vs. Vikings

This feels like it could be a trap, but if it is I’m going to fall for it. The Lions have looked good the last couple of weeks and the Vikings did not on Monday Night. The Lions have also been cover machines under Dan Campbell as well going 13-6 ATS since the start of last season. This line being at 6 seems a little high based of last week. I think we’re looking at more of a field goal game in this one. The Lions were able to cover against the Eagles something the Vikings were unable to do as well. My only hang up here is 1:00 Kirk Cousins. I correctly predicted that primetime Kirk would shine through on Monday, but I’m hoping that going against him in a game nobody’s watching doesn’t come back to bite me. We all know that’s when Kirk is at his best, but we ride with Man Campbell and the Lions.

Over

Bengals vs. Jets (44.5)

In what could be Joe Flacco’s last hurrah as a starter this season this game figures to be a high scoring affair. I’m curious as to why the total is so low here. The Bengals couldn’t be more due for an offensive explosion and the Jets defense hasn’t necessarily been lockdown through two weeks. The Jets on the other hand have aired it out with Flacco the last two week including scoring 31 in a come from behind victory last week. Six touchdowns and a field goal gets us there and I think that’s more than possible. Let’s see some points.

Under

Falcons vs. Seahawks (42)

I said it last week, but I think Seattle is going to be a big under team this year. The under is 2-0 in Seahawks games so far this year. Their defense is good enough to keep the opposing offense in check, but their offense won’t put up a ton of points of their own. They haven’t scored an offensive touchdown in their last six quarters as well. The Falcons offense could put up some points, but I think the Seahawks will muck the game up enough to keep this low scoring. I’m thinking this finishes as a 17-14 or 20-17 type of game.

Lock of the Week

Chiefs (-5.5) vs. Colts

I don’t think I can call this segment my lock of the week anymore considering it’s 0-2 to start the season so, I might have to start workshopping some new titles for this pick. Anyways, what better way to get back on track with my lock of the week than picking Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs. This seems way too obvious though. The Colts have looked like complete dogshit through two weeks so that means Matt Ryan will probably look like 2016 MVP Matt Ryan because I’m betting against them. I just don’t see how the Chiefs don’t come out and absolutely roll them though. As long as Mahomes stops throwing the ball to the other team (he had 4 INTs last week by my count 2 overturned by penalties and 2 dropped) I think we’ll be alright here. Over 90% of the bets and money is on Kansas City. I’m not overthinking this though, let’s cash the lock of the week for the first time this year.